Millington Research Overview | EED Seminar Sept 2013

http://www.landscapemodelling.net

Landscape Ecology

Modelling & Simulation

Dr. James Millington

Lecturer in Physical and Quantitative Geography

Research Background


Research Interests

Landscape Ecology Modelling & Simulation


Succession-

Disturbance

Resource

Management Agent-Based

Epistemology

Landscape Change

Land Use/Cover Change


Millington et al. (2007)

Landscape Change


Agricultural decision-making Agent-Based

Model (ABM)



Landscape Change


Agricultural decision-making ABM

Landscape succession-disturbance (LFSM) http://www.landscapemodelling.net


Succession-Disturbance



Movie


Ongoing Modelling

Model assessment

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses

Pattern-oriented modelling

Updating model to

better represent

climate and soil

moisture


Ongoing Modelling

Carrion et al. 2010


Resource Management

Wildlife and timber management

Timber Deer

© L.S. Johnson

Birds


Selection Timber Harvest

Shade-tolerant species

regenerate in understory

Intends to mimic gap-

phase dynamics


../../Reports/CSREES/Land Ownership Influence.kmz

Variation in Gap Regeneration


Simulation Model

USFS Forest

Vegetation Simulator

MSU Regeneration Model

7.0m

Tre

e H

eig

ht

Deer

Herbivory

Landscape Forest Structure

Forest Valuation

Timber

Harvest (light & seed

availability)

Site Quality (soil resources, competition)


Deer Distribution


Winter Deer Habitat

Juxtaposition of

northern

hardwood and

lowland conifer

stands

Provides winter

food and

thermal cover in

close proximity

Lowland

Conifer Aspen

Northern

Hardwood Other

0 1 km


Deer Distribution Regression

Deer Density = f(DLC, DBH)

Bayesian Model Averaging to select this ‘best’ model


Deer Distribution Example Deer Density – Original

Low

High

deer/km2

Lowland

Conifer

0 1 km


Deer Distribution Example Deer Density – Conifer Removal

Lowland

Conifer

0 1 km

Low

High

deer/km2


Simulation Model

USFS Forest

Vegetation Simulator

MSU Regeneration Model

7.0m

Tre

e H

eig

ht

Deer

Herbivory

Landscape Forest Structure

Forest Valuation

Timber

Harvest (light & seed

availability)

Site Quality (soil resources, competition)


Gap Regeneration Scenarios

100% Regeneration

100 years

10-year timestep

Year


Gap Regeneration Scenarios

0% Regeneration

100 years

10-year timestep

Year


Combined effects?

What are the combined effects of

variable regeneration and timber

management on songbirds and

timber production?


Bird Occupancy Probability

Occupancy Models (after MacKenzie et al.)

logit(p) = b0 + b1x1 + … bixi

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.8

1.0

0.6

Occupancy P

robabili

ty

Least Flycatcher

Black Throated

Green Warbler

0.0 12.5 25.0 37.5 50.0

Canopy Openness (%)


Bird Occupancy Probability

BTNW EAWP

LEFL RBGR

Canopy Openness (-ve)

SumDiam15m (+ve) Canopy Height (+ve)

Canopy Height (+ve)

Canopy Openness (+ve)

Basal Area (+ve)

SumDiam20m (+ve)


Birds vs. Timber vs. Regeneration


Birds vs. Timber vs. Regeneration

Black-Throated Green Warbler


Integrated Simulation

Integrated forest management

Integrated simulation model: regeneration,

timber and deer



Ongoing Modelling

Spatial-temporal co-ordination of timber and

wildlife management

Impact of variable snow at regional scale


Transferable Methods!

Statistical models

Logistic regression modelling

Categorical or probabilistic dependent variable

Land cover, species abundance

Risk models, Forecast models

Multi-model inference

Evaluating evidence for different combinations of

variables


Transferable Methods!

Simulation approaches

For dispersal, diffusion, random walk processes

Cellular Automata & GIS modelling

Grid models with specified rules of change

Risk mapping and change

Individual- or Agent-based modelling

For representing discrete entities

Human activity, animal distribution, plant migration


Millington Research Overview | EED Seminar Sept 2013

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