Mick McGuire Christina Henderson Kelly Ranae Giedd -James
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Mick McGuire Christina Henderson Kelly Ranae Giedd-James A DETAILED LOOK AT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
description
A Detailed Look at the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Mick McGuire Christina Henderson Kelly Ranae Giedd -James. Hazardous weather outlook. standard categorical verification scores . Hazardous weather outlook. POD = a / ( a+c ) FAR = b / ( a+b ) *TS=CSI = a / ( a+c+b ) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Mick McGuire Christina Henderson Kelly Ranae Giedd -James
Mick McGuireChristina Henderson
Kelly Ranae Giedd-James
A DETAILED LOOK AT THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Event Forecast
Event Observed Marginal Total
Yes Hits(a)
False Alarms(b) a+b
No Misses(c)
Correct Neg.(d) c+d
Marginal Total a+c b+d
a+b+c+d =nTotal
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
STANDARD CATEGORICAL VERIFICATION SCORES
Event Forecast
Event Observed Marginal Total
Yes Hits(a)
False Alarms(b) a+b
No Misses(c)
Correct Neg.(d) c+d
Marginal Totala+c b+d
a+b+c+d =nTotal
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
POD = A / (A+C)
FAR = B / (A+B)
*TS=CSI = A / (A+C+B)
HSS= 2(AD-BC) / [(A+C)(C+D)+(A+B)(B+D)
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/Finley/Finley_Tornados.html
OUTLINE
2004-2008 WARM SEASONS - MJJA
PAST STORM REPORTS HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ONLINE/
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS GLD DDC LBF GID
HIGH PLAINS OFFICES
HIGH PLAINS OFFICES
LBF 32948 MI²
GID19253 MI² GLD
20997 MI² DDC22442 MI²
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mirs/public/prods/reports/pdf/office_facility/10-507_cwfa_counties(cr).pdf
HIGH PLAINS SWX LBF 215 GLD 202 DDC 190 GID 151 (4) (1) (2) (3) 43 40 38 30
Past storm reports http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
May Jun Jul Aug0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 # Days SWX MJJA 2004-2008
GLDGIDDDCLBF
Past storm reports http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
May Jun Jul Aug0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
GIDLBFDDCGLD
% DAYS SWX MJJA 2004-2008
HIGH PLAINS SWX
HIGH PLAINS SWX
DEFINING A PRECIPITATION EVENT
XMACIS HTTP://XMACIS.UNL.EDU/
100 COOP14 ASOS
REMOVED T, M AND 0.01 (DEW TIPS) 764/38325 OR 1.99% AND USED PCPN ≥ 0.02
LBF GLD DDC GID0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50% 45.17%
43.72% 41.85%
32.47%
% PCPN SWX MJJA 2004-2008
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
GID
LBF
DDC
GLD
32.17%
40.00%
43.52%
45.54%
% PCPN SWX MAY 2004-2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
GID
DDC
LBF
GLD
39.20%
49.19%50.00%
55.93%
% PCPN SWX JUNE 2004-2008
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
GID
GLD
DDC
LBF
32.14%
37.04%
43.14%
48.28%
% PCPN SWX JULY 2004-2008
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
GID
DDC
GLD
LBF
25.66%
31.67%
36.29%
42.28%
% PCPN SWX AUG 2004-2008
*
GLD
DDC
GID
LBF
19.65
26.59
29.18
37.63
____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur
40%
35%
DAY 1-7 POD MJJA 2004-2008POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
%
%
%
%
DAY 1-7 POD MJJA 2004-2008POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses)
____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur
May Jun Jul Aug0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
LBFGLDDDCGID
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
DAY 1-7 FAR MJJA 2004-2008 FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms)
36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%
LBF
DDC
GLD
GID
41.38%
41.89%
42.99%
49.02%
____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms
DAY 1-7 FAR MJJA 2004-2008 FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms)
____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms
May Jun Jul Aug0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
LBFGLDDDCGID
DAY 1-7 HSS MJJA 2004-2008 HSS= 2(AD-BC) / [(A+C)(C+D)+(A+B)(B+D)]
There was a ___% improvement in forecast accuracy when compared to random chance
22%
24%
26%
DDC
GLD
LBF
GID
23.10%
23.48%
23.88%
24.22%
01020304050607080
DDC
GLD
GID
LBF
47.89
53.09
60.30
70.12
DAY 1-3 POD MJJA 2004-2008POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses)
____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
May Jun Jul Aug0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
LBFGLDDDCGID
DAY 1-3 POD MJJA 2004-2008POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses)
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%
GLD
DDC
LBF
GID
36.99%
38.90%
38.98%
41.44%
DAY 1-3 FAR MJJA 2004-2008 FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms)
____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms
DAY 1-3 FAR MJJA 2004-2008 FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms)
____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms
May Jun Jul Aug0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
LBFGLDDDCGID
DAY 1 POD MJJA 2004-2008POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses)
____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur
65
70
75
80
85
90
DDC
LBF
GLD
GID
71.9972.14
82.92
85.67
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
DAY 4-7 POD MJJA 2004-2008POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses)
____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
GLD
DDC
GID
LBF
5.25
9.71
10.24
13.93
%
%
%
% %
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
DAY 4-7 POD MJJA 2004-2008POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses)
____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occurMay Jun Jul Aug
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
LBFGLDDDCGID
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
DAY 4-7 FAR MJJA 2004-2008 FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms)
____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
GID
GLD
DDC
LBF
25.43%
26.90%
45.69%
47.77%
DAY 4-7 FAR MJJA 2004-2008 FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms)
____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms
May Jun Jul Aug0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
LBFGLDDDCGID
DAY 4-7 HSS MJJA 2004-2008 HSS= 2(AD-BC) / [(A+C)(C+D)+(A+B)(B+D)
There was a ___% improvement in forecast accuracy when compared to random chance
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%
LBF
GID
GLD
DDC
3.95%
4.37%
4.92%
7.00%
DAY 4-7 HSS MJJA 2004-2008 HSS= 2(AD-BC) / [(A+C)(C+D)+(A+B)(B+D)
There was a ___% improvement in forecast accuracy when compared to random chance
May Jun Jul Aug
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
LBFGLDDDCGID
WHAT IF...
DAYS 4-7 ( MAY-AUG 2004-2008)
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERE
IMPACT ON CATEGORICAL VERIFICATION SCORES
LBF GLD DDC GID
HSS +6.06 +4.69 +6.86 +6.18
FAR +10.39 +35.08 +11.18 +30.14
POD +35.57 +35.08 +25.96 +45.12
HSS 10.81 9.61 13.06 10.55
FAR 58.16 61.98 56.87 55.57
POD 49.50 40.33 35.67 55.36
DAY 4-7 WHAT IF…
CONCLUSIONS
WHY ARE WE RELUCTANT TO INCLUDE SWX IN HWO
THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
-INCREASED FAR
-INCREASED POD -INCREASED HSS
