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Page 1: MergedFile - jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com · Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 8 MARKET Pulse Commercial real estate consolidation The investment in commercial real estate
Page 2: MergedFile - jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com · Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 8 MARKET Pulse Commercial real estate consolidation The investment in commercial real estate

2018

Q3

Quarter Analysis

YTD Analysis

Main Transactions

Source: JLL / LPI Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 2

144,273 sq m

57,454 sq m 1,105 sq m

902 sq m

No of Operations Average GLA

160Y-o-Y Growth: 27%

The third quarter had the best performance of the year, with a take-up of 57,454 sq m, reaching a total of 144,273 sq m

YTD, 27% above the same period in 2017. This continued growth that has been felt in the last years is supported not only

by the expansion of already established companies, but also by the growing perception of Portugal as a viable destination

by several multinationals.

Take-up

Torre Zenith Mapfre 6 3,150

Barata Salgueiro 33 Willis Towers Watson 1 2,785

MARKET Pulse

Growth trend maintained through third quarter

Open Teleperformance 3 7,779

António Pedro, 111 MMC 7 4,897

Building Tenant Zone GLA (sq m)

Office Park Carnaxide Coriant Portugal 6 8,487

The current vacancy rate is 8%. Vacancy is low and mainly of low quality. However, we see a robust pipeline taking shape,

with over 690,000 sq m being added to the market in the next few years, 78,000 sq m of which will come in 2019.

Take-up No of Operations Average GLA

52

The strong demand that is faced today is mainly towards high quality buildings with large areas, justifying the increase of

the average occupied area to 902 sq m in the first 9 months of the year, compared with the 830 sq m registered at the end

of 2017. The growing trend of coworking is also an important factor boosting demand in this type of spaces.

Y-o-Y Growth: 62%

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Take-up by Zone Q1-Q3 2018

Vacancy Rate Q2 2018

Prime Rents Q3 2018

Source: JLL / LPI Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 3

144,273 sq m

8.1%

16%

12%

20%

3%10%

30%

9% Zone 1 - Prime CBD

Zone 2 - CBD

Zone 3 - New Offices Area

Zone 4 - Historic & Riverside Zone

Zone 5 - Parque das Nações

Zone 6 - Western Corridor

Zone 7 - Other Zones

21.0

17.016.0 16.0

17.5

14.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6

€ / s

q m

/ m

on

th

Q3 2017 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

4.5%

7.0%

6.1%

5.1%

2.4%

19.0%

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

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Lisbon Office Zones

Zone 1 - Prime CBD Zone 2 - CBD

Zone 3 - New Offices Area Zone 4 - Historic & Riverside Zone

Zone 5 - Parque das Nações Zona 6 - Western Corridor

Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 4

New Supply Q1 - Q3 2018

Total GLA No. of Buildings

834,193 sq m

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Twin Towers Quinta da Alagoa

Zone 3 Concl. Year: 2019 Zone 6 Concl. Year: 2019

Speculative Speculative

Defensores de Chaves, 4 Hub Creativo do Beato

Zone 2 Concl. Year: 2019 Zone 7 Concl. Year: 2019

Speculative Speculative

FPM 41 Exeo I

Zone 1 Concl. Year: 2019 Zone 5 Concl. Year: 2021

Pre-let: PLMJ; KPMG Speculative

Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 5

691,452 sq m

10,000 sq m 6,525 sq m

4,000 sq m

18,538 sq m

30,000 sq m

30,000 sq m

76%

Speculative

Buildings under construction

99,063 sq m

Under Construction

Total Pipeline

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2018

Q3

Chiado Av. da Liberdade Baixa

Príncipe Real Cais do Sodré Castilho

Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 6

MARKET Pulse

New experiences for a new consumer

The existing pipeline of shopping centres maintains the focus on expansions, which often lead to remodelling and

renovations of the interior spaces, seeking to increase the variety and quality of supply and revealing the fundamental

need to keep up with current trends to provide better experiences to visitors.

High street retail keeps reflecting a very high demand. Tourism continues to be the great drive, but the new Portuguese

lifestyle is taking the locals further and further into the "street", where they can find a different offer from the one they

traditionally find in shopping centres.

Restaurants still dominate the openings in the prime zones, which is in line with the global trend.

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Prime Rents Q3 2018

Shopping Centres Q3 2018

Main openings Q3 2018High Street Retail - Lisbon

Chiado Cais do Sodré Principe Real Baixa

Mano a Mano Sala de Corte Clube Lisboeta L'Eclair

Degrau Cantina Peruana Steve Madden

Carte d'Or Sumaya

H3

Go Natural

Paleteria

Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 7

PipelineShopping Centres Stock

2018 - 2019

50,000 sq m 3,743,502 sq m

125

11

135

85

30

130

45 45

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

ShoppingCentres

Retail Parks Chiado Av.Liberdade

Rua Castilho Baixa Principe Real Cais doSodré

€ / s

q m

/ m

on

th

Q3 2017 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

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2018

T3

Investment Volume Evolution

Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 8

MARKET Pulse

Commercial real estate consolidation

The investment in commercial real estate continues to register record levels having exceeded € 2.5Bn at the end of the

3rd

Quarter, contributing to a y-o-y growth over 80%. The retail sector remains the most important sector of investment,

followed by office and mixed-use developments.

The investment volume has been driven by a diverse and increasing number of investors of different nationalities and

profiles. During this year we have witnessed a market transition, which started at the end of the crisis with a more

opportunistic profile and now takes a core and value-add profile. This trend comes from the consolidation of the market

and the consequent perception of lower risk.

Real estate investment is also more diversified, with more opportunities to invest in alternative sectors such as senior

and student housing, hospitals, clinics, PRS and logistics. Parallel to the volume of commercial real estate investment,

with strong dynamism, are the transactions of large real estate and NPL portfolios held by banks that have to comply with

the European guidelines for reducing the ratio of these assets in their balance sheets.

704

393

845

188 127

318

927

1,764

1,305

1,905

2,538

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 - Q32018

€M

National International

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Top 3 Transactions Q3 2018

Fidelidade Portfolio Almada Forum Quinta da FonteBuyer: Apollo Buyer: Merlin Properties Buyer: Signal Capital

Price: > € 410 M Price: € 407 M Price: € 50 M

GLA: 255,000 sq m GLA: 60,000 sq m GLA: n.d.

Sector: Office, Retail, Residential Sector: Retail Sector: Office

Investment Volume by Sector Q1 - Q3 2018

Prime Yields Evolution

Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 9

22%

50%

4%

24% Office

Retail

I&L

Others

6.00

5.00

5.50

6.506.75

8.00 8.00

9.00

7.50

9.50

4.504.75

6.25

4.25

6.25

Office Shopping Centres Retail Parks High Street Retail -Lisbon

Industrial & Logistics

%

2007 - Min 2012 - Max Q3 2018

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2018

Q3

Foreign Buyers

Evolution of Apartments Sold

Lisbon Metropolitan Area

Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 10

2º United Kingdom (15%)

57% International 39 Nationalities 3º France (13%)

MARKET Pulse

TOP 3

1º Brazil (25%)

Another quarter with growth activity

In the 3rd

quarter the residential market kept the growth trend with very positive numbers and new projects coming to the

market, with the pipeline showing no sign of slowing down. Despite the new supply, the house prices in the 3rd

quarter

continued to grow in Lisbon with emphasis in the prime zones of Avenida da Liberdade, Riverside and Campo de

Ourique.Some developments should be highlighted, such as The Bivart Residences, which has recently sold the last unit with all

apartments sold in just 7 months, and the new launch of D.Luís Praça, in the Riverside Zone which will have 37

apartments.

Once again, the quarter registered further diversification of nationalities buying home in Lisbon, such as Turkey and

Switzerland. Brazilian, English and French buyers remain the main buyers.

37,679

42,751

27,546

21,35224,251

26,938

35,317

44,311

53,662

30,879

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 S1 2018

Used New

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TOP 3 Developments Q3 2018

POP Saldanha The Bivart Residences Douradores 168Zone: Avenidas Novas Zone: Avenidas Novas Zone: Baixa

Developer: OISE - Invest. e Gestão Developer: Cais d'Espirais

64 Apartments 31 Apartments 12 Apartments

98% sold in 6 Months 100% sold in 7 Months 92% sold in 7 Months

Prime Residential Zones in Lisbon

Prime Value Q3 2018

Chiado € 6,500 - 9,500 Avenida da Liberdade € 7,500 - 10,000

Príncipe Real € 6,500 - 8,000 Historic Zone € 5,000 - 7,000

Lapa / Estrela € 5,000 - 6,500 Riverside Zone € 5,000 - 6,500

C. Ourique / Amoreiras € 4,500 - 6,000 Avenidas Novas € 5,000 - 6,500

Colina de Santana € 4,000 - 5,500 Restelo / Belém € 4,500 - 6,000

Parque das Nações € 3,500 - 5,500 Estoril / Cascais € 5,000 - 12,000

Source: JLL Market Pulse Q3 2018 | 11

Developer: OISE - Civilria

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