M&E/KM working group

Line Kaspersen / Ann Turinayo

IFAD Country Office UgandaMay 2013

Agenda

1. Welcome and introductions (9:00)

2. Poverty monitoring exercise (9:15)

3. Feedback on PCRs/MTRs (9:45)

TEA BREAK (10:00)

3. IFADAFRICA (10:15)

END (11:00)

IFAD 9th replenishment (2013-15)

Commitment to donors:•80 million out of poverty for 90 million beneficiaries => 89% effectiveness (very high) •On-going projects between 2010 and 2015•Cost-effectiveness: IFAD USD 30 per person taken out of poverty (at current: USD 85 worldwide)•ESA targets: Terminology changed from target beneficiaries (outreach) 12 million in 2012 to 17 million taken out of poverty between 2010 and 2015, with available resources.

For new projects

Increased focus on TARGETING AND MEASUREMENT:

- Each project / portfolio to establish poverty line

- A percentage of people should be poor when entering a project

- We have to measure their poverty status when they exit the programme

- Direct and indirect beneficiaries to be credibly identified

- Increased focus on control groups, panel studies (or databases), cost per beneficiary ratios

- RIMS+ being developed

Poverty estimation in existing projects

• At IFAD level: Detailed impact studies will be undertaken for extrapolation.

• For Uganda portfolio: each project to credibly establish outreach (direct & indirect beneficiaries) and poverty extraction efficiency (number of people and cost)

WE HAVE TO AGREE ON WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO!

Definition of poverty

• MFPED: poor, insecure non-poor and transitory• Per cent poor has fallen (MDG1 achieved), but absolute

number of people has increased• Challenge: detailed information on poverty is lacking. • Most recent data: 2005 WRI poverty maps (poverty

density per rural sub-county) and 2002 population census

• General poverty/price trends “filtered out”? (attribution)• National poverty line in 2005: 20,789 Uganda Shillings

(US$ 12) per month per adult equivalent in rural areas and 22,175 Uganda Shillings (US$ 13) per month in urban settings

2005 poverty maps

DHS clusters

Rural poor

Rural pop

Incidence

Acholi/Lango 1.4 2.3 61%Eastern 1.3 3.3 40%West-Nile 1.0 1.7 58%East-central 0.9 2.6 36%Karamoja 0.8 0.9 88%Southwest 0.6 3.2 18%Central 1 0.5 2.8 19%Central 2 0.5 2.0 24%Western 0.5 2.3 20%Kampala 0 0 0%Grand Total 7.5 21.0 35%

Population and poverty head count (millions)

2002 2005/6 2009/10

Rural Total 21.3 21.0 29.1

Poor 7.5 7.1

Incidence 35% 24%

Total Total 24.2 27.4 34.1

Poor 9.2 8.5 8.4

Incidence 38.0% 31.1% 24.5%

Overview of IFAD portfolio

‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20

COSOP period                

Poverty reporting           

         

NAADS (closed)                      

VODP (closed)                

CAIIP                

RFSP                

DLSP                

ATAAS                  

VODP2                    

PROFIRA (new)                    

PRELNOR (new)                    

Portfolio outreach

Project cost Efficiency(USD mill) (hhs '000) (ind '000) (hhs '000) (ind '000) 50%?

NAADS (closed) 80 533 2 665 715 4 300 2 150 19VODP (closed) 60 140 840 201 1 207 604 50CAIIP 84 1 478 8 865 1 225 7 352 3 676 11RFSP 25 26 300 448 2 688 1 344 9DLSP 51 200 1 200 91 544 272 94ATAAS 666 1 700 8 500 1 700 8 500 4 250 78VODP2 146 139 834 139 834 417 175Total 1 111 4 216 23 204 4 519 25 425 12 713 44

Target beneficiaries Beneficiaries by 2012 Cost per beneficiary

Portfolio from IFAD perspective

Project cost IFAD loan Efficiency (USD mill) (USD mill) (hhs '000) (ind '000) %

NAADS (closed) 80 18 715 4 300 22 941 4VODP (closed) 60 20 201 1 207 33 400 16CAIIP 84 32 1 225 7 352 38 2 801 4RFSP 25 18 448 2 688 75 2 019 7DLSP 51 45 91 544 88 477 83ATAAS 666 14 1 700 8 500 2 179 2VODP2 146 52 139 834 36 297 62Total 1 111 199 4 519 25 425 18 4 548 8

Beneficiaries by 2012IFAD cost

pr beneficiary

Financing share

Share of beneficiaries

Request from participants during meeting

• Share information on how each project captures number of beneficiaries

• Analysis to be presented to project managers to ensure buy-in and mind-sets

• M&E planning crucial to capture reality on ground (ensure to visit all farmers groups, not only the good ones near by)

• Seems we have low average cost per beneficiary; with this scattering, can we be sure of impact?

Way forward

-Individual meetings with projects (review of actuals)-Quantifying impact (case studies to validate assumptions?)

• Verify efficiency of poverty reduction assumptions

• Poverty estimates in project implementation areas

• Validate (hh*6) = # individuals assumption

• Documenting direct and indirect outreach

-Validation of results with UBOS and/or IFPRI etc. -Reporting to IFAD management by Dec 2013

Project Completion Reports

• VODP: Final draft available (USD 36.000; 90 days for M/S Grand Consult) including hh interviews.

• RFSP: Procurement on-going (USD 16.000; 45 day for an individual). Mainly document review and compilation

• CAIIP: Procurement on-going (USD 30.000; 120 days for a firm). Including field visits to validate and holding of stakeholder workshops.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------• DLSP: Mid term review (USD 39.000; Business

Synergies)• CAIIP: Mid term review (USD 16.000; consortium of

individual consultants)

Feedback from projects during the meeting

• MTR timing a challenge; at MT implementation not really taken off, yet MTR in last project years makes little room for implementation of recommendations

• Consultants need close supervision especially on field work (sampling frames for representativeness, development of tools, spot-checks in the field, data analysis)

• Quality of reports remain a challenge – scope of work and qualifications of consultants must be considered

• PCR procurement to be completed by project completion (6 months prior to loan closure)

• Share experiences!

Learning from the experiences of others: IFADAFRICA

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Some of the highlights

• Better Data Can Mean Better Decisions For Financial Inclusion

• Open Data +Agriculture Can Transform How Farmers Respond to Looming Crises – a case of the banana wilt in Uganda

• World Bank adds climate change to poverty fight – in IFAD, environmental protection and climate change are key issues.