Meeting the growing demand for energy – onshore and ...– onshore and offshore...
Transcript of Meeting the growing demand for energy – onshore and ...– onshore and offshore...
International Foundation for the Law of the SeaSummer Academy
Meeting the growing demand for energy – onshore and offshore developments
Peter M Swift
Meeting the growing demand for energy –onshore and offshore developments
• Introduction• Energy demand• Oil production• Oil and gas locations• Offshore oil• Natural Gas• Coal• Nuclear• Renewables
– offshore wind, wave & tidal
International Association of Independent Tanker Owners
260 + members:> 80% of the independent oil tanker fleet and > 85% of the chemical
carrier fleet
300 + associate members:in oil and chemical tanker related businesses
15 Committees - 4 Regional PanelsRepresentative Offices in Europe, US and Asia
One of the Association’s primary goals:Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s
performance in striving to achieve the goals of:Zero fatalities, Zero pollution, Zero detentions
SHIP OWNER OIL COMPANY SPOKESMAN
The Rogues of the Oil Tanker Industry
World Energy Consumption
Major Driver – Population Growth
Source: Douglas-Westwood, 2007
World energy consumption 1965 - 2006million tonnes oil equivalents
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Oil Gas Coal
Nuclear Hydro
Regional Primary Energy Consumption Pattern 2006
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Oil Consumption by Area 1981-2006
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
World oil consumption - mbd
Based on BP/IEA
0
5
10
15
20
25
3019
65
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
010
20304050
607080
90100
N America
S&C America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacific
World
Projection
Oil Production by Area 1981-2006
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
World oil production - mbd
0
5
10
15
20
25
3019
65
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
N AmericaS&C AmericaEurope/FSUMiddle EastAfricaAsia Pacific
Projection
Based on BP/IEA
World Oil and Gas 2007
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
North America / Gulf of Mexico
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
South America / Caribbean
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
South America / East Coast
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
Northern Europe
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
World Oil and Gas 2007
Europe / Mediterranean
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
Middle East / FSU
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
West Africa
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
Asia - Pacific
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
Australasia
Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database
Onshore OIL Production to 2020
Source: Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2005
Offshore OIL Production to 2020
Source: Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2005
World Onshore/Offshore Oil Production (mb/d)
Source: Oil & Gas Journal, March 2007
Largest Offshore Oil Producing Regions 2005
Production Start-up
Daily Production
(mb/d)
Cumulative Production (Bb)
Crude OilPersian Gulf/ME 1957 5.3 51North Sea 1975 4.7 45West Africa 1969 3.5 25Mexico GoM 1960 2.6 20Asia/Australasia 1960 2.1 21US GoM 1947 1.6 24Brazil 1973 1.5 6China 1980 0.6 2Caspian 1950 0.4 1Russia/Artic 1999 0.05 0Others 0.8 2Total NGLs 1.6 7World Offshore 25 204Source: Oil & Gas Journal, March 2007
Global Subsea MarketWater Depth
Source: Infield, 2007
Deep & Ultra Deepwater1989-2010
Source: Infield, 2007
Global Offshore Production Outlook (kb/d)
Source: Oil & Gas Journal, March 2007
Crude Oil Prices Since 1861
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Oil Production Peak
Source: World Gas Supply Report / World Oil Supply Report -Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2007
2030 118 mm bpd( EIA Forecast June ‘06)
Natural Gas Consumption by Area1981-2006
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Natural Gas Production by Area1981-2006
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Onshore GAS Production to 2020
Source: Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2005
Offshore GAS Production to 2020
Source: Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2005
Gas Production Forecast
Source: World Gas Supply Report - Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2007
LNG Exports
Source: Douglas-Westwood, 2007
LNG Exports - Forecast
Source: Douglas-Westwood, 2007
Proved Natural Gas Reservesat end 2006
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Coal Production – Coal Consumption
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Nuclear Energy Consumption by Area 1981-2006
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Renewables13.1%
Gas 20.9%
Coal 25.1%
Oil 34.3%
Non-Renew. Waste 0.2%
Other 0.5%
Hydro 2.2%
Renewable Combustibles
and Waste10.4%
Nuclear 6.5%
Fuel Shares of World Total Primary Energy Supply, 2004
Geothermal 0.414%
Solar 0.039%Wind 0.064%
Tide, 0.0004%
Source: IEA Renewables in Global Energy Supply 2007
• Hydro• Onshore wind• Offshore wind• Biomass • Solar power • Geothermal • Wave & tidal
Renewable Energy
Offshore Wind
Offshore Wind Farm
(1) Pile and erosion protection in the seabed (top of the foundation is painted a bright colour to make it visible to ships)
(2) Rotating aerodynamically shaped blades (2) makes them rotate around a horizontal hub, which is connected to a shaft inside the nacelle
(3) Shaft that powers a generator to convert the energy into electricity.(4) Subsea cables (5) Offshore Transformer(6) Grid at a substation on land
Source: British Wind Energy Association (BWEA), 2007
Offshore WindCapital Expenditure 2002-2011
• 2007-2011: USD11.8bn
• European Dominated Market: UK USD6.8bn / Denmark USD2.3bn / Germany USD1.8bn
• Annual Capex USD3.8bn by 2011
• Costs continue to increase
Source: The World Offshore Wind Report, Douglas-Westwood, 2007
The “London Array”
• 5.5 x bigger than current largest farm: Nysted, Denmark (165 MW)
• 271 turbines, 1 GW electricity (could supply 25% of London’s homes)
• Will cover a sea area of 245 sq.km., sited in the Thames estuary
• Four build phases, construction to start in 2008
Wave & Tidal
Current, Wave & Tide Technologies
Marine (Current) Turbines Pelamis (Waves)
SMD Hydrovision (Tidal) Stingray (Tidal)
Oscillating Water Column (Waves)Source: BWEA, 2007
Wave and TidalCapital Expenditure 2000-2008
Source: The World Wave and Tidal Database, Douglas-Westwood, 2007
THANK YOU
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