Medical Decision Making and Some Related IssuesDr. David Hsien-Wei TingMD, MBA, PhD*

Reference: Molecular Systems Biology 8: 612; doi:10.1038/msb.2012.47

Stakeholder of Medical Decision MakingPhysiciansDiagnosisTreatmentPatientsWhere to seek medical careDecision the recommends of physician Health Policy Makers and Health Insurers What to promoteWhat to Discourage What to Pay for

What is Data MiningData, Information, Knowledge

Software applications that process complex algorithms in order to provide meaningful information.

Beer and DiaperCredit Card

Data Mining: A KDD ProcessData CleaningData IntegrationDatabasesData WarehouseTask-relevant DataSelectionData MiningPattern Evaluation

Data Mining and Business Intelligence Increasing potentialto supportbusiness decisionsEnd UserBusiness Analyst DataAnalystDBA MakingDecisionsData PresentationVisualization TechniquesData MiningInformation DiscoveryData ExplorationOLAP, MDAStatistical Analysis, Querying and ReportingData Warehouses / Data MartsData SourcesPaper, Files, Information Providers, Database Systems, OLTP

What Information Technologies Can Do?Concept description: Characterization and discriminationAssociation (correlation and causality)Classification and PredictionCluster analysisTrend and evolution analysisOptimization and SimulationVisualization Other pattern-directed or statistical analysis

Knowledge Discovery and Make Decision

Classification of Medical ProblemsPrediction Mortality prediction modelDiagnosis of malignancyBioinformaticsPublic health problemOptimization Hospital managementTreatment processes managementCost optimization

Data Mining in MedicineMortality prediction modelDiagnosis of malignancy: OBS, Prostate Ca, Liver tumorBioinformatics: Prediction and discoveryPublic health problem: infection control, find associations of the diseaseHospital management: working flow processing, optimization, prediction.

National Health Insurance Research Database99%87()89 http://nhird.nhri.org.tw/brief_01.htm

Studies from National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD)

Chart1

12

19

32

33

64

48

90

77

134

123

169

242

381

years

paper numbers

Sheet1

200012

200119

200232

200333

200464

200548

200690

200777

2008134

2009123

2010169

2011242

2012381

Sheet1

years

paper numbers

Sheet2

Sheet3

The Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage ResearchesEpidemiology:Age, gender,cost, etc..Definition of prolong ICU stay with Change point analysisFind predispose Factors for prolong ICU stayOutcome compared : Surgery or notThe influence of hospital size and hospital typesAssociation studiesClassification :CART, SVM, etc..Association rulesSequential analysis

Data Management Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID2005) in National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD)The million subjects dataset were constructed from all subjects with National Health Insurance in 2005 by random sampling in Taiwan. Outpatients and inpatients data with details recorded for each visit/stay from 2001 to 2009. Inclusion criteria ICD 9 = 431. Exclusion criteriatraumatic intracranial hemorrhage (TICH)ICD-9 =800 ~804.99, 850~854.19, 959.01 and 959.09Financial data were collected. Data See http://nhird.nhri.org.tw/date_01.htm

Results

Prolong ICU stay Definition

K-M curve of ICH patients

Kaplan-Meier Curve of survival (Surgery v.s. Non-Surgery)

Chart1

10.999

0.980.989

0.9480.969

0.9220.947

0.890.934

0.8730.925

0.8620.915

0.8510.906

0.8430.9

0.840.895

0.8330.89

0.8240.883

0.8230.878

0.8170.872

0.8130.866

0.8120.857

0.8120.853

0.810.845

0.8090.839

0.8070.836

0.8040.833

0.8020.829

0.8020.826

0.80.824

0.7990.822

0.7970.818

0.7960.812

0.7960.809

0.7940.808

0.7920.806

0.7920.802

0.7910.8

0.790.798

0.7890.795

0.7880.793

0.7870.792

0.7870.79

0.7860.789

0.7840.784

0.7840.777

0.7830.775

0.7820.772

0.7820.769

0.7810.768

0.7790.767

0.7790.766

0.7780.763

0.7770.762

0.7760.757

0.7750.751

0.7740.744

0.7740.743

0.7730.742

0.7730.741

0.7720.74

0.7710.738

0.7710.737

0.770.736

0.7690.735

0.7680.734

0.7680.732

0.7670.731

0.7660.73

0.7660.729

0.7650.728

0.7640.726

0.7640.724

0.7630.723

0.7630.722

0.7620.72

0.7610.719

0.7610.718

0.760.716

0.7590.714

0.7590.713

0.7580.712

0.7580.711

0.7570.708

0.7560.707

0.7560.706

0.7550.705

0.7550.704

0.7530.703

0.7530.701

0.7520.7

0.7510.699

0.750.698

0.7490.697

0.7480.695

0.7470.694

0.7460.693

0.7450.692

0.7450.691

0.7440.689

0.7430.688

0.7430.687

0.7420.686

0.7410.685

0.740.683

0.740.682

0.7390.677

0.7380.674

0.7380.673

0.7370.671

0.7360.67

0.7360.669

0.7350.668

0.734

0.733

0.733

0.732

0.732

0.731

0.73

0.73

Non-surgery

Surgery

Time (Days)

Survival rate

K_M

1011.00011608

32010.980321577

830.00310.948831526

1250.00510.9221251484

1770.00810.8901771432

2040.01110.8732041405

2220.01410.8622221387

2400.01610.8512401369

2520.01910.8432521357

2580.02210.8402581351

2680.02510.8332681341

2830.02710.8242831326

2850.0310.8232851324

2940.03310.8172941315

3010.03610.8133011308

3020.03810.8123021307

3030.04110.8123031306

3060.04410.8103061303

3080.04710.8093081301

3110.04910.8073111298

3150.05210.8043151294

3180.05810.8023181291

3190.0610.8023191290

3210.06310.8003211288

3240.06610.7993241285

3270.06810.7973271282

3280.07110.7963281281

3290.07710.7963291280

3320.08510.7943321277

3340.0910.7923341275

3350.09610.7923351274

3370.10110.7913371272

3380.1110.7903381271

3390.11210.7893391270

3410.11510.7883411268

3420.12110.7873421267

3430.12310.7873431266

3450.12610.7863451264

3470.12910.7843471262

3480.13210.7843481261

3490.13410.7833491260

3500.14210.7823501259

3510.15110.7823511258

3530.15910.7813531256

3550.16710.7793551254

3560.1710.7793561253

3570.17810.7783571252

3590.18610.7773591250

3610.19210.7763611248

3620.19710.7753621247

3630.20510.7743631246

3640.21110.7743641245

3650.21610.7733651244

3660.21910.7733661243

3670.22510.7723671242

3680.22710.7713681241

3690.23310.7713691240

3700.24410.7703701239

3720.24910.7693721237

3730.2610.7683731236

3740.26310.7683741235

3750.26810.7673751234

3760.27110.7663761233

3770.28510.7663771232

3780.28810.7653781231

3790.2910.7643791230

3800.30110.7643801229

3810.31510.7633811228

3820.32310.7633821227

3830.33410.7623831226

3840.3410.7613841225

3850.34810.7613851224

3860.35310.7603861223

3870.36410.7593871222

3880.37510.7593881221

3890.37810.7583891220

3900.38110.7583901219

3910.38910.7573911218

3920.39710.7563921217

3930.410.7563931216

3940.40810.7553941215

3950.41110.7553951214

3970.41610.7533971212

3980.42210.7533981211

3990.42710.7523991210

4000.43310.7514001209

4020.44410.7504021207

4040.45510.7494041205

4050.45810.7484051204

4070.47710.7474071202

4080.49310.7464081201

4100.50410.7454101199

4110.50710.7454111198

4120.52110.7444121197

4130.55910.7434131196

4140.57310.7434141195

4150.57510.7424151194

4170.58110.7414171192

4180.58910.7404181191

4190.610.7404191190

4200.60310.7394201189

4210.60510.7384211188

4220.60810.7384221187

4230.61410.7374231186

4240.62710.7364241185

4250.63310.7364251184

4270.67910.7354271182

4280.68510.7344281181

4290.70410.7334291180

4300.70710.7334301179

4310.71510.7324311178

4320.75110.7324321177

4330.78910.7314331176

4340.80810.7304341175

4350.81610.7304351174

4511.03310.7204511158

4521.04110.7194521157

4531.04710.7184531156

4541.05210.7184541155

4551.07410.7174551154

4561.0910.7174561153

4571.09910.7164571152

4581.12910.7154581151

4591.13410.7154591150

4601.14510.7144601149

4611.16210.7134611148

4621.21610.7134621147

4631.2310.7124631146

4641.24410.7124641145

4651.25510.7114651144

4821.43310.7004821127

4831.43610.7004831126

4841.45210.6994841125

4851.45810.6994851124

4861.4610.6984861123

4871.52110.6974871122

4881.53210.6974881121

4891.54810.6964891120

4901.57310.6954901119

4911.57510.6954911118

4931.58610.6944931116

4941.59510.6934941115

4951.63310.6924951114

4961.63810.6924961113

4971.65510.6914971112

4981.6610.6904981111

4991.72610.6904991110

5001.73210.6895001109

5011.73410.6895011108

5021.7410.6885021107

5031.74810.6875031106

5041.78910.6875041105

5051.810.6865051104

5061.81110.6865061103

5071.82210.6855071102

5081.84710.6845081101

5091.8910.6845091100

5101.90110.6835101099

5111.9110.6825111098

5121.91510.6825121097

5131.91810.6815131096

5141.92610.6815141095

5151.95310.6805151094

5161.98110.6795161093

5171.98910.6795171092

5181.99510.6785181091

5192.00310.6775191090

5232.02510.6775201086

5392.05510.6765211070

5572.13410.6755231052

5802.22710.6735261029

6012.31210.6705311008

6082.3410.6695321001

6092.34210.6685331000

6202.41110.668534989

6352.46610.664540974

6362.47110.663541973

6582.61610.660545951

6592.61910.659546950

6692.68810.659547940

6862.76710.657550923

7022.82510.656551907

7152.86810.653555894

7272.90710.652556882

7452.95910.651557864

7572.99710.650559852

7713.03610.648562838

7893.11510.646564820

7983.15910.645565811

8183.22710.643568791

8353.34810.641570774

8583.47110.639573751

8793.61910.637575730

8853.65510.635577724

9083.76710.634578701

9784.04410.632580631

10144.21910.630582595

10184.24110.627585591

10204.25210.625587589

10674.52110.619592542

10744.57510.618593535

10784.58610.616595531

11064.74210.615596503

11284.84410.614597481

11565.00310.611599453

11785.12110.609600431

12145.27710.608601395

12785.76210.606602331

1010.9991836

90.00310.9899828

260.00510.96926811

440.00810.94744793

550.01110.93455782

630.01410.92563774

710.01610.91571766

790.01910.90679758

840.02210.90084753

880.02510.89588749

920.02710.89092745

980.0310.88398739

1020.03310.878102735

1070.03810.872107730

1120.04110.866112725

1200.04410.857120717

1230.04710.853123714

1300.04910.845130707

1350.05510.839135702

1370.05810.836137700

1400.0610.833140697

1430.06610.829143694

1460.06810.826146691

1470.07110.824147690

1490.07410.822149688

1520.07710.818152685

1570.08510.812157680

1600.08810.809160677

1610.0910.808161676

1620.09310.806162675

1660.11210.802166671

1670.11510.800167670

1690.12610.798169668

1720.13210.795172665

1730.13410.793173664

1740.13710.792174663

1760.1410.790176661

1770.14810.789177660

1810.15610.784181656

1870.16710.777187650

1880.17810.775188649

1910.18110.772191646

1930.19210.769193644

1940.19510.768194643

1950.210.767195642

1960.20510.766196641

1980.21610.763198639

1990.2310.762199638

2030.28810.757203634

2080.3110.751208629

2140.32610.744214623

2150.32910.743215622

2160.33410.742216621

2170.33710.741217620

2180.3410.740218619

2190.34810.738219618

2200.35310.737220617

2210.35910.736221616

2220.36710.735222615

2230.37810.734223614

2240.39210.732224613

2250.39710.731225612

2260.410.730226611

2270.40310.729227610

2280.40510.728228609

2290.41910.726229608

2310.42710.724231606

2320.44110.723232605

2330.45510.722233604

2340.4610.720234603

2350.46310.719235602

2360.46610.718236601

2380.48210.716238599

2390.49310.714239598

2400.51810.713240597

2410.53410.712241596

2420.54510.711242595

2440.55310.708244593

2450.58410.707245592

2460.58610.706246591

2470.60810.705247590

2480.61410.704248589

2490.61910.703249588

2500.6310.701250587

2510.64110.700251586

2520.64710.699252585

2530.66310.698253584

2540.67410.697254583

2550.69310.695255582

2560.70410.694256581

2570.73210.693257580

2580.73410.692258579

2590.75310.691259578

2600.77510.689260577

2610.77810.688261576

2620.78110.687262575

2630.78410.686263574

2640.80510.685264573

2650.83610.683265572

2660.84910.682266571

2700.86810.677270567

2730.89910.674273564

2740.90710.673274563

2750.93210.671275562

2760.93410.670276561

2770.95910.669277560

2780.97810.668278559

279110.667279558

2801.01110.665280557

2811.01410.664281556

2821.03610.663282555

2831.03810.662283554

2841.04410.661284553

2851.06810.659285552

2871.07710.657287550

2881.07910.656288549

2891.08510.655289548

2901.09910.654290547

2911.11510.652291546

2921.11810.651292545

2961.18610.646296541

2971.22510.645297540

2981.24110.644298539

2991.26610.643299538

3001.29910.642300537

3011.37810.640301536

3021.38410.639302535

3031.40510.638303534

3041.40810.637304533

3051.42210.636305532

3061.4610.634306531

3071.47910.633307530

3081.49310.632308529

3091.55610.631309528

3101.57810.630310527

3111.59510.628311526

3121.60310.627312525

3131.61110.626313524

3141.63810.625314523

3151.70710.624315522

3161.7110.622316521

3171.71510.621317520

3181.72110.620318519

3191.82510.619319518

3201.83810.618320517

3211.84710.616321516

3221.8910.615322515

3231.94810.614323514

3241.98910.613324513

3252.00310.612325512

3312.02210.609327506

3392.07910.608328498

3482.15610.606330489

3512.18610.604331486

3662.31810.602333471

3692.32910.601334468

3702.33210.599335467

3732.3410.597337464

3832.43610.595338454

3862.44710.594339451

3932.55310.590342444

4002.64910.585346437

4072.69310.583347430

4102.70110.582348427

4112.70410.581349426

4142.73210.579350423

4182.75310.578351419

4232.77510.577352414

4442.94510.575353393

4492.98910.574354388

4583.05810.571356379

4693.11210.566359368

4733.14810.563361364

4813.20810.561362356

5293.82710.558364308

5393.92310.556365298

5594.11810.554366278

5774.41410.552367260

5934.75110.550368244

6064.90110.547369231

6575.43610.544370180

K_M

non-surgery

surgery

time (year)

survival rate

K_M one year

time(day)

1001111608

320010.98321577

830.0031.09510.948831526

1250.0051.82510.9221251484

1770.0082.9210.891771432

2040.0114.01510.8732041405

2220.0145.1110.8622221387

2400.0165.8410.8512401369

2520.0196.93510.8432521357

2580.0228.0310.842581351

2680.0259.12510.8332681341

2830.0279.85510.8242831326

2850.0310.9510.8232851324

2940.03312.04510.8172941315

3010.03613.1410.8133011308

3020.03813.8710.8123021307

3030.04114.96510.8123031306

3060.04416.0610.813061303

3080.04717.15510.8093081301

3110.04917.88510.8073111298

3150.05218.9810.8043151294

3180.05821.1710.8023181291

3190.0621.910.8023191290

3210.06322.99510.83211288

3240.06624.0910.7993241285

3270.06824.8210.7973271282

3280.07125.91510.7963281281

3290.07728.10510.7963291280

3320.08531.02510.7943321277

3340.0932.8510.7923341275

3350.09635.0410.7923351274

3370.10136.86510.7913371272

3380.1140.1510.793381271

3390.11240.8810.7893391270

3410.11541.97510.7883411268

3420.12144.16510.7873421267

3430.12344.89510.7873431266

3450.12645.9910.7863451264

3470.12947.08510.7843471262

3480.13248.1810.7843481261

3490.13448.9110.7833491260

3500.14251.8310.7823501259

3510.15155.11510.7823511258

3530.15958.03510.7813531256

3550.16760.95510.7793551254

3560.1762.0510.7793561253

3570.17864.9710.7783571252

3590.18667.8910.7773591250

3610.19270.0810.7763611248

3620.19771.90510.7753621247

3630.20574.82510.7743631246

3640.21177.01510.7743641245

3650.21678.8410.7733651244

3660.21979.93510.7733661243

3670.22582.12510.7723671242

3680.22782.85510.7713681241

3690.23385.04510.7713691240

3700.24489.0610.773701239

3720.24990.88510.7693721237

3730.2694.910.7683731236

3740.26395.99510.7683741235

3750.26897.8210.7673751234

3760.27198.91510.7663761233

3770.285104.02510.7663771232

3780.288105.1210.7653781231

3790.29105.8510.7643791230

3800.301109.86510.7643801229

3810.315114.97510.7633811228

3820.323117.89510.7633821227

3830.334121.9110.7623831226

3840.34124.110.7613841225

3850.348127.0210.7613851224

3860.353128.84510.763861223

3870.364132.8610.7593871222

3880.375136.87510.7593881221

3890.378137.9710.7583891220

3900.381139.06510.7583901219

3910.389141.98510.7573911218

3920.397144.90510.7563921217

3930.414610.7563931216

3940.408148.9210.7553941215

3950.411150.01510.7553951214

3970.416151.8410.7533971212

3980.422154.0310.7533981211

3990.427155.85510.7523991210

4000.433158.04510.7514001209

4020.444162.0610.754021207

4040.455166.07510.7494041205

4050.458167.1710.7484051204

4070.477174.10510.7474071202

4080.493179.94510.7464081201

4100.504183.9610.7454101199

4110.507185.05510.7454111198

4120.521190.16510.7444121197

4130.559204.03510.7434131196

4140.573209.14510.7434141195

4150.575209.87510.7424151194

4170.581212.06510.7414171192

4180.589214.98510.744181191

4190.621910.744191190

4200.603220.09510.7394201189

4210.605220.82510.7384211188

4220.608221.9210.7384221187

4230.614224.1110.7374231186

4240.627228.85510.7364241185

4250.633231.04510.7364251184

4270.679247.83510.7354271182

4280.685250.02510.7344281181

4290.704256.9610.7334291180

4300.707258.05510.7334301179

4310.715260.97510.7324311178

4320.751274.11510.7324321177

4330.789287.98510.7314331176

4340.808294.9210.734341175

4350.816297.8410.734351174

10010.9991836

90.0031.09510.9899828

260.0051.82510.96926811

440.0082.9210.94744793

550.0114.01510.93455782

630.0145.1110.92563774

710.0165.8410.91571766

790.0196.93510.90679758

840.0228.0310.984753

880.0259.12510.89588749

920.0279.85510.8992745

980.0310.9510.88398739

1020.03312.04510.878102735

1070.03813.8710.872107730

1120.04114.96510.866112725

1200.04416.0610.857120717

1230.04717.15510.853123714

1300.04917.88510.845130707

1350.05520.07510.839135702

1370.05821.1710.836137700

1400.0621.910.833140697

1430.06624.0910.829143694

1460.06824.8210.826146691

1470.07125.91510.824147690

1490.07427.0110.822149688

1520.07728.10510.818152685

1570.08531.02510.812157680

1600.08832.1210.809160677

1610.0932.8510.808161676

1620.09333.94510.806162675

1660.11240.8810.802166671

1670.11541.97510.8167670

1690.12645.9910.798169668

1720.13248.1810.795172665

1730.13448.9110.793173664

1740.13750.00510.792174663

1760.1451.110.79176661

1770.14854.0210.789177660

1810.15656.9410.784181656

1870.16760.95510.777187650

1880.17864.9710.775188649

1910.18166.06510.772191646

1930.19270.0810.769193644

1940.19571.17510.768194643

1950.27310.767195642

1960.20574.82510.766196641

1980.21678.8410.763198639

1990.2383.9510.762199638

2030.288105.1210.757203634

2080.31113.1510.751208629

2140.326118.9910.744214623

2150.329120.08510.743215622

2160.334121.9110.742216621

2170.337123.00510.741217620

2180.34124.110.74218619

2190.348127.0210.738219618

2200.353128.84510.737220617

2210.359131.03510.736221616

2220.367133.95510.735222615

2230.378137.9710.734223614

2240.392143.0810.732224613

2250.397144.90510.731225612

2260.414610.73226611

2270.403147.09510.729227610

2280.405147.82510.728228609

2290.419152.93510.726229608

2310.427155.85510.724231606

2320.441160.96510.723232605

2330.455166.07510.722233604

2340.46167.910.72234603

2350.463168.99510.719235602

2360.466170.0910.718236601

2380.482175.9310.716238599

2390.493179.94510.714239598

2400.518189.0710.713240597

2410.534194.9110.712241596

2420.545198.92510.711242595

2440.553201.84510.708244593

2450.584213.1610.707245592

2460.586213.8910.706246591

2470.608221.9210.705247590

2480.614224.1110.704248589

2490.619225.93510.703249588

2500.63229.9510.701250587

2510.641233.96510.7251586

2520.647236.15510.699252585

2530.663241.99510.698253584

2540.674246.0110.697254583

2550.693252.94510.695255582

2560.704256.9610.694256581

2570.732267.1810.693257580

2580.734267.9110.692258579

2590.753274.84510.691259578

2600.775282.87510.689260577

2610.778283.9710.688261576

2620.781285.06510.687262575

2630.784286.1610.686263574

2640.805293.82510.685264573

2650.836305.1410.683265572

2660.849309.88510.682266571

2700.868316.8210.677270567

2730.899328.13510.674273564

2740.907331.05510.673274563

2750.932340.1810.671275562

2760.934340.9110.67276561

2770.959350.03510.669277560

2780.978356.9710.668278559

K_M one year

Non-surgery

Surgery

Time (Days)

Survival rate

data

OPageTOT_MED_DOTROOM_DOTDRUG_DOTOP_DOTACU_BED_DAYSICU_DAYSsurvival time

064.1107474.6941510.712476.75019.64.162.4

15.1264390.02582892.68656196.51050.59.61.1

160.6457233.88135686.7555644.9941497.7455.115.356.5

15.0471561.404150311.94770091.11228575.28583.818.11.5

62.9227159.2673736.9327248.5514200.1731.87.960.4

15.1386721.31119337.67464624.84725826.03666.014.20.9

0358213844160

8813276318730

115241452318551383

1571950102336953

75722458908473

1289139782154861

a

95%

OP

05.1960.0915.0185.374

14.710.1294.4574.962

5.0340.0744.8885.18

mortality

OP

01

month_dead012806821962

1329155484

1609837244634.2%

20.4%18.5%19.8%

The Big Data Volume()Velocity()Variety()Veracity()

The Advantages of Big Data (data exhaust)

The Value Construct of Big DataBig data ownerBig data analyzer Big data thought

30application (APP)

The Acute Appendicitis Surgical Decision Support SystemJ Chin Med Assoc 2010;73(8):401406

Mortality Prediction ModelsZi = 1, if patients data are normalZi = -1, if patients data are abnormalZi = 0, if missing dataW: weight of patients dataZ = patients real data W= weight of patients dataM=parameters of patients dataF(Z)=function of patients data distribution, F(Z)= 0 if missing Expert Systems with Applications 38 (2011) 79247928

Concept of Medical Information Systemwith Big Data

Intra-data source

Medical database

External data source

Knowledge Based Data Management (automatic extraction, transformation and loading)

DATA

WAREHOUSE

Central metadata

OLAP and Data mining

Medical DSS

Data analysis

Medical DSS

Medical issues

Data analysis

Conceptual of EBM

Cloud Computing in Medicine

The Future Structural of Health Information System

HISHcIS Roadmap (2014~201X)

HIS (Hospital information system)

( EMR/HL7)

The Related Disciplines JAMIA. 2008;15:780782

Is the Medical Informatics and Bioinformatics the same Discipline?What is bioinformaticsStudies in vivoStudies in vitroWhat is DNA and RNAATCG and AUCGProtein and amino acid.Structural evaluation Studies in silico

JAMIA. 2007;14:340 348.

Information Technologies v.s. Medical Researches 1900s: try and error medicine1950s: experimental medicine2000s: medical informaticsMulti-discipline researchProblem define and solveIntegration between information management and medical problem

Before, the experiment led the medicine. Present, information will lead the medicine.

Thank You for Your Attention *

***After I get my master degree, I start to study the mortality prediction models in my hospital. I collected the physical data of intensive care unit patients in my hospital. The right column showed the nave Bayesian Model for the mortality prediction. Unfortunately, this model is not good enough in performance. So I modified this model. The new Bayesian model considers the characteristics of different physical data. Every physical data has its own data distribution. The distributions show as this figure. This new model displays a better performance than traditional prediction models. **