MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMOWorld Weather Research Programme

MEDEX research proposal (phase 1)

Agustí Jansà (*), INM, Spain

Pinhas Alpert, TAU, IsraelPhilippe Arbogast, Météo-FranceAndrea Buzzi, ISAO, CNR, Italy

James Doyle, NRL, USAKlaus P. Hoinka, DLR, GermanyVassiliki Kotroni, NOA, GreeceCliment Ramis, UIB, SpainEvelyne Richard, LA, FranceAntonio Speranza, DSTN, Italy

And Members of MEDEX Advisory Group

(*) [email protected]



General objective of MEDEX:The improvement of knowledge and forecasting of the cyclones that

produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean area

Specific objectives (MEDEX phase 1, 2001-2004):

(a) To implement a dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean, to know the types of cyclonic structures that appears related to high impact weather events, if any. This is a necessary step to evaluate the potential impact of the improvement of the forecasting of cyclones on the prediction of the high impact weather itself. It is also necessary to know how representative is the work done on the base of a selection of particular cases.

(b) In order to develop/test physical and dynamical hypotheses to form the basis of improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones: determining and ranking the multiple geographical and meteorological factors that are acting in the generation and evolution of the different types of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean.

(c) The identification of sensitive areas where better initial conditions may likely lead to improved forecasts. Closely connected with the former objective is an assessment of the impact of additional observations in sensitive areas.

Based on systematic data, covering every day along a period

Based on selected cases



Priority tasks for MEDEX phase 1

(according the WWRP/SSC Resolution about MEDEX, Sep. 2000)

a. Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS, and to start concentrating these data in a MEDEX database.

b. Identify a set of cases where high impact weather was poorly forecast and conduct co-ordinate, in-depth case studies that include considerations of forecast skill and societal impacts associated with both the event and the poor forecasts.

c. Conduct NWP studies to identify sensitive areas where the addition of observations would most likely lead to improved forecasts and their related benefits.

d. Conduct research to identify physical and dynamical hypotheses that might form the basis of developing improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones.



According the specific objectives and the priority tasks, a Science Plan or Full Proposal for MEDEX phase 1 has been prepared, including a feasible schedule for the main activities

2001-1st S 2001-2nd S 2002-1st S 2002-2nd S 2003-1st S 2003-2nd S 2004-1st S 2004-2nd S

Selection of cases 1995-2000

Updating selection of cases (2001-2003)

Establishment of the MEDEX database

Collection of ordinary and additional data in the database

Western Mediterranean cyclone database 1995-2002

Eastern Mediterranean cyclone database 1995-2002

Calendar of high impact weather events 1995-2002

Dynamic climatology of cyclones vs. high impact weather 1995-2002

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Identification of sensitive areas for selected cases

MEDEX Meeting 2001

MEDEX Meeting 2002

MEDEX Meeting 2003

MEDEX Meeting 2004

Final report for MEDEX phase 1

Planning a possible second phase for MEDEX

Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS



Specific objective 1• Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact

weather in the Mediterranean

Brief description: • A systematic exploration of all the events of heavy rain or strong wind, above pre-

defined thresholds, looking for identification and description of near cyclones potentially related to the event.

• Statistical results, stratified by geographical areas, including:• Frequency of presence of cyclones related to high impact weather• Location of cyclones related to high impact weather• Typologies of cyclones related to high impact weather

Motivation:• This is a necessary step to evaluate the potential impact of the improvement of the

forecasting of cyclones on the prediction of the high impact weather itself. • It is also necessary to know how representative is the work done on the base of a

selection of particular cases.




weather in the Mediterranean (cont.)

Science basis:• Hypothesis:

Heavy rain: The close presence of a surface cyclone provides the warm and wet inflow which is necessary for sustaining heavy rain. This hypothesis needs to be verified and/or quantified.

Strong wind: Intense surface cyclone implies strong surface wind.

Low

•Present knowledge (concerning heavy rain):•Many case studies of heavy rain show the close presence of a cyclone, but its role is not always analysed

12 January 1997 case-study 12 January 1997 case-study (Kotroni & (Kotroni & Lagouvardos)Lagouvardos)12 January 1997 case-study 12 January 1997 case-study (Kotroni & (Kotroni & Lagouvardos)Lagouvardos)





Science basis (cont.):• Few case studies specify how the location and intensity of the surface cyclone

modulates the intensity and location of the heavy rain

• Statistical studies are only preliminary and referred to parts of the Western Mediterranean, where in 90% of around 900 events of heavy rain (>60 mm/day) there is a surface cyclone in the vicinity, mostly located according the aforementioned hypothesis.

• The aim now is generalising the preliminary statistical results and specifying the kind of cyclones which are related with heavy rain

CONTROLCONTROLSIMULATIONSIMULATION

DYNAMICAL DYNAMICAL CONTROL of PRECIPCONTROL of PRECIP

SIMULATION SIMULATION WITHOUT UPPER PV WITHOUT UPPER PV

ANAOMALIESANAOMALIES

(Romero, Ramis (Romero, Ramis & Alonso)& Alonso)

MESOSCALE FORECAST LLJ AND MOIST TONGUE





Methodology:• Calendar of events of heavy rain and/or strong wind over-passing pre-defined

thresholds. Provided by participating institutions. Collected in the MEDEX Data Base.

• Data Base of cyclones. Objective detection and description, on the base of objective analyses. Data collected in the MEDEX Data Base.

• Cross-referencing the calendar of events and the data base of cyclones to obtain Statistical results, stratified by geographical areas, including:• Frequency of presence of cyclones related to high impact weather• Location of cyclones related to high impact weather• Typologies of cyclones related to high impact weather

Data requirements:(summarised at the end of this presentation)

Data base of cyclones: The methodology already available permits the objective and automatic detection and description of cyclones. For example:

Detection

Tracking

Domain: zero vorticity line

Vertical extension and tilting

Vertical profile of radiusVertical profile of circulation: A x ς

Vertical thermal profile: ΔTVertical profile of relative humidity



Specific objective 2

Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases)

Develop/test physical and dynamical hypotheses to form the basis of improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones

Investigate the physical role (in the formation and evolution of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean) and model representation /assimilation of: • orography • surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat• latent heat release • upper level potential vorticity• low level jets

Sensitivity studies based on numerical experimentation on selected cases are recommended to investigate the role of the above 'factors' in different situations

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment onCyc lones that produce High Im pactWeather in the Mediterranean



Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning 'factors'(selected cases)

In order to avoid having a simple addition of separate and independent studies, somecooperative aspects will be stressed:

• The selection of cases is being made in agreement among the participants andworking on cases possibly affecting not only a single country will berecommended.

• A database for verification of weather and dynamical structures will be madeavailable. One or several reference analyses for each selected case will beincluded in the database, to make them available for the MEDEX community.

• Common tools for measuring the skill of the NWP models in predicting surfacecyclone features will be developed. The reference analyses will be used todetermine the forecasting errors on cyclonic structures.

• A way for the easy exchange and intercomparison of results of numerical modelsimulations and experiments will be established.

• The factor separation technique (Stein and Alpert, 1993; Alpert et al., 1995) willbe applied in evaluating sensitivity experiments, when looking for the separateand combined effects of several 'factors'





Selection of cases 1995-2000(This work is a necessary step for Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors, as well as for Identification of sensitive areas).Present state: almost finished.

The point of departure has been a Questionnaire submitted to the institutions that are participating in MEDEX.Selection criteria:

High impact weather (mainly precipitation and wind) associated with cyclones affecting the Mediterranean area

Poor forecast skill Adverse societal impact and possible mitigation depending on forecast skill Sensitivity to initial condition and meteorological model used Data base accessible (meteorological non GTS data, documentation on adverse weather

impact and losses) Events affecting more than one country (to favour interactions) Events associated with different cyclone types and representative of all the Mediterranean

subregions





Selection of cases 1995-2000

More then 80 events were suggested (17 institutions of 11 countries). 27 among them constitute the present pre-selection. The pre-selection has been made according the following criteria:

1. Events affecting two or more contiguous countries.

2. Severe impact weather events (affecting one country only).

3. Additional events to ensure some degree of geographical 'balance'.

NOTE: Information about societal impacts, degree of success of numerical forecasts and alerts is not always readily available, but a distinct progress was made in two iterations.



Date Countryaffected

Severe weatherSW strong windHP heavy precip.SN heavy snow

Societalimpact

Alert/warnings

Models /forecast tools,

forecastquality

02-03 Jan.1995

Tunisia (N) SW28 m/sDepression E of Sicily

Generic alert Strong windpredicted

14-17 Jan.1995

Greece(IonianSea)

SWHurricane like cyclone,wind > 30 m/s over sea

No alert ECMWF, poorresolution. Nooperational fc. atNOA. BOLAMsuccessful tests

27-28 Feb.1995

Tunisia(central)

SW30 m/sDepression overSahara

No alert Only moderatewind fc.

28-30Mar. 1995

Croatia SW, HP, SNVery strong coldoutbreak, extraordinarysnowfall in Dalmatia,max. Bora 45 m/s

Damaging wind,electric power systemdamaged, seriousinterruption of traffic(air, sea, land)

Generic alertgiven 1 day inadvance

ECMWF, DWD,no mesoscalemodel

11 Aug.1995

Spain HP

24 Aug.1995

Spain HP150 mm/24h

Floods

21 Sep.1995

Spain HP253 mm/24h

Floods

3-4 Nov.1995

Turkey(west)

HP124 mm/4 h

Large floods. 61casualties. > 300houses destroyed.>1000 M US$ loss

10 Jun.2000

Spain(Catalunya)

HP, SW> 200 mm/12 h, 240mm/6h at Montserrat(Catalunya)cyclone E of IberianPen.

240 mm/6h, flood, 4casualties in Catal.,landslides, buildingsand roads affected,very heavy materiallosses

Good shortrange warning,but unsatisfact.very short rangewarning

HIRLAM,acceptable fc. ofprecip. and windat large scale, butdeficient finescale model. fc.

12-13 July2000

Bulgaria SW15-20 m/s over lowground, 40-45 m/s atmountain tops. Rainand hail.Cyclone initiated asAlpine cyclogenesis,moved E and NE.

Hail damages ofcrops

ALADIN,good forprecipitation,poor for windspeed

8-10 Sept.2000

Italy(Calabria)

HR360 mm/24 h,

Flood, 13 casualties,destroyed buildings,interruption of roads,large damages toagriculture, touristand industrialactivities

No end user fc.

19-20Sept. 2000

France(Montpellier,Cevennes,Marseille)

SW, HPTornado (Montpellier)197 mm/24h, 159mm/3h (Marseille)

5 casualties, materiallosses, serious trafficinterruption

4D VAR inoperation

04-06 Oct.2000

Tunisia (N) HP92 mm/24hModerate depressionover Sicily

No generic alert

09 Oct.2000

Cyprus HPSevere thunderstorm,hail

Flood, damages

14-16 Oct.2000

Italy HP>600 mm/48Cyclone moving Nover the west Med.

Extensive floods(Piemonte, Valled'Aosta), manycasualties, largedamages toinfrastructures

21-26 Oct.2000

Spain(Catal., SEof Aragon,NValenciancomm.)

HP600 mm/48h> 300 mm/24 h (S.Catalunya)Upper level cutoffcyclone, surfacecyclone Se of IberianPeninsula

Serious flash floods,8 casualties in Catal.and other parts ofSpain, landslides.Buildings and roadsaffected. Veryimportant damagesand losses.

Good short andvery short rangewarnings.

HIRLAMGood large scalefc., underprediction ofprecip.



Geographical cover of selected events





Selection of cases 1995-2000: emerged Forecasting problems:Forecasting problems:

•Forecast often difficult but skill gradually improving in time

•Heavy precipitation (and consequences, mainly floods and landslides,

also snow) most important, but also strong winds (damages, navigation,

storm surges…)

•Most of benefits from meteorological models (especially LAM's):,

ECMWF, U.K.M.O., DWD (Europa, Lokall M.), ARPEGE, ALADIN,

BOLAM, ETA, HIRLAM, LAMBO, MASS, MM5, RAMS...)

• Identification of problems limiting forecast skill.





13/11/1999 00Z - ECMWF analysis

BO

LA

ME

CM

WF

Case study by Delitala et al. (SAR - Sardinia)(impact of high res. forecast of precip., also ensemble fc.)





Case study by Romero et al. (UIB, Palma de M.)applying piecewise PV inversion technique

PLINIUS CONFERENCE ON MEDITERRANEAN STORMSPLINIUS CONFERENCE ON MEDITERRANEAN STORMS Two rotating upper-level positive

PV anomaliesStrong low-tropospheric warm

advection

Track, shape and intensity of the surface cyclone and the corresponding rainfall pattern are very sensitive to the

embedded upper-level PV anomalies





Example of MEDEX-related activities at the National Example of MEDEX-related activities at the National Observatory of Athens (Kotroni, Lagouvardos)Observatory of Athens (Kotroni, Lagouvardos)

OBSERVATIONS

Eta/NMC

100 km

*

RAMS

*

***

**

*

15/00

15/06

15/12

15/18

16/00

16/06

16/1216/12

16/12

16/06

16/06

16/00

15/18

15/00

15/00

15/06

15/1215/12

15/18

15/06

16/00

15/06

15/12

15/18

16/00

16/06

16/12

BOLAM

14-17 January 1995 multi-model case-study14-17 January 1995 multi-model case-study





Severe flood event of NW Italy, 13-16 Oct. 2000:example of hydrological-meteorological model coupling

(ISAO Bologna, Univ. of Genova, Univ. of Brescia)

Accumulated precipitation exceeded 700 mm/96 hrs and 550 mm/48 hrs (14-15 Oct. 2000)

Previsione di piena con il modello DIMOSOP - EVENTO 2000 misure pluviometriche dal 2000 10 12 12:00 UTC - Toce a Candoglia

(1532 km²)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

12/10/20000.00

13/10/20000.00

14/10/20000.00

15/10/20000.00

16/10/20000.00

17/10/20000.00

Tempo [UTC]

Por

tata

[m

³/s]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Pre

cipi

tatio

n [m

m h

-1]

pioggia BOLAM pioggia pluviometri

Idrogramma osservato Idrogramma BOLAM

Idrogramma pluviometri

Observed and hindcasted runoff at Toce Candoglia, using the DIMOSOP hydrological model, based on BOLAM forecasts for the period 2000-10-13 to 200-10-17




Identification of sensitive areas for selected cases

The objective is to identify areas where better initial conditions may lead to improved forecast of events of high impact weather connected with cyclones.

• The MEDEX project favours the case study approach on regional scale.

• The computation of sensitivities requires adjoint model code.

• In the case of the Mediterranean area, it is expected that diabatic processes

will need to be included in the adjoint calculations.

• Preliminary to OSSE experiments and to identification of observational

needs.



The EUCOS study on Climatology of Sensitive Areas (Marseille & Bouttier, 2000) give us an idea about were are the most sensitive areas for Southern Europe:



A particular day example of sensitive area (from ECMWF):



Horizontal aspects

After the presentation of the specific objectives of MEDEX, we move to some horizontal and practical aspects of the development of the project:

1. The data requirements and management2. Societal benefits and impact assessment3. The scientific management of the project.4. Financing problems.



The data requirements and management :Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTSEstablishment of the MEDEX database

Steps:1. Definition of data requirements (made, preliminarily)2. Identification of available data (made, preliminarily)3. Implementation of the MEDEX database (under study the feasibility of implementation

of the database in INM-Spain)

MEDEX objective Type of data Area Details

Dynamical climatology

Rainfall and wind Inner Mediterranean All peak values that overpass defined thresholds, since 1995.

Analysed fields Inner Mediterranean (at least) 4 daily at standard levels, al least since 1995.

Sensitivity to factors (validation)

Rainfall and wind Inner Mediterranean All data in the affected area for selected events only.

Radar and other non-conventional

Inner Mediterranean All data in the affected area for selected events only.

Impact of observations

Upper air data Outer Mediterranean (Eastern Atlantic incl.)

All data in sensitive areas for selected events only.

Surface data Outer Mediterranean (mainly inner area)

All data in sensitive areas for selected events only.

1. Definition of data requirements (made, preliminarily)

Inner and outer Mediterranean area



Identification of available data (made, preliminarily, from a Questionnaire)

Institution Rain. num.

Wind num.

Radar num.

Lightening Synop num.

Pilot num. Temp num.

IM, Portugal 850 80 2 Yes 60

INM, Spain 1381 76 7 Yes 191

UB, Spain 175 50

ONM, Algeria 29 29 40 7 1

SAR, Sardinia 49 27 1

INM, Tunisia 96 34 1

ARPA-FVG, Italy 39 25 1 25

ARPA-ER, Italy 80 20 1 10

MHS, Croatia 487 2 2

NIMH, Bulgaria 387 95 1 8

Cyprus MS 163 10 1 Yes

IMS, Israel 400 120 1 120

CITA, Gailicia, Spain 22 22 22

P 80W 20RADAR 1SYNOP 10



P 163W 10RADAR 1LIGHT.


P 1381W 76RADAR 7LIGHT.SYNOP 191

P 850W 80RADAR 2LIGHT.SYNOP 60

P 29W 29SYNOP 40PILOT 7TEMP 1

P 49W 27RADAR 1

P 96W 34RADAR 1

P 175W 50

non-GTS data availability

P 487W 2?RADAR 2SYNOP 2

P 22W 22SYNOP 22



Identification of available data: additional possibilities

Surface winds from scatterometer

Data from aircraftCommon events from other projects:MAP, THORPEX, etc.



Societal benefits and impact assessment

Elements:1. Involvement of end users2. Impact of the research on society3. Incorporation of the societal impacts into MEDEX

1. Involvement of end users

1. Most of the NWS and some regional weather services in the Mediterranean are involved in MEDEX

2. Most of the weather services have close contact with civil defence, marine safety, hydrology, ... organisms

3. A few civil defence and marine safety services could be directly involved in MEDEX (in Spain they actually are)



Societal benefits and impact assessment

1. Impact of the research on society1. Better knowledge of the processes has to produce some degree of improved

forecasting --> potential impact reduction (although not in the short time):1. through improvement in modelling2. through more refined conceptual models (better final forecasting)

2. Better knowledge of forecasting skills and unaccuracies has to conduct to an improved risk management

• Incorporation of the societal impacts into MEDEX1. MEDEX will try to incorporate information about the societal impact of the

selected events (at least) in order to quantify the impacts associated to the phenomena concerned.

2. MEDEX will try to evaluate the reduction of impact of hazardous weather after an hypothetical improvement of the prediction of the associated cyclones. This requires:1. To develop a tool for measuring the skill of NWP in forecasting

cyclones (included in Specific Objective 2).2. To analyse the sensitivity of the final weather prediction to the

accuracy of the forecasting of the associated cyclone



Scientific management

Elements

1. Science Steering Committee for MEDEX2. Participating Institutions 3. MEDEX Advisory Group4. MEDEX Permanent Centre

Science Steering Committee for MEDEXPinhas Alpert, TAU, IsraelPhilippe Arbogast, Météo-FranceAndrea Buzzi, ISAO, CNR, ItalyJames Doyle, NRL, USAKlaus P. Hoinka, DLR, GermanyAgustí Jansà (*), INM, Spain Vassiliki Kotroni, NOA, GreeceCliment Ramis, UIB, SpainEvelyne Richard, LA, FranceAntonio Speranza, DSTN, Italy

INM, Spain

UIB, Spain

IM, Portugal

UB, Spain

MM, Spain

PC, Spain

DMN, Morocco

ONM, Algeria

Meteo-France

Meteo-Swiss

Meteotrentino, Italy

ARPA-FVG, Italy

CIMA, Italy

ARPA-ER, Italy

ISAO, Italy

DSTN, Italy

UGM, Italy

SAR, Italy

U.Ferrara, Italy

INM, Tunisia

ICoD, Malta

MHS, Croatia

NIMH, Bulgaria

NOA, Greece

Turquish M.S.

Cyprus M.S.

TAU, Israel

IMS, Israel

Egytian M.A.

UK Met.Office

US Navy, NRL

CITA, Galicia, Spain



Financing problems

• It seems to us that WMO has to acquire a certain degree of commitment in locating some funds in support of a few representative participants from developing countries to facilitate their attendance in main MEDEX meetings.

• Although INM-Spain will try to undertake all the cost or most of the cost of the MEDEX Permanent Centre and of the MEDEX Data Base, some funds to finance the Data Base management could be necessary.

• The studies on the identification of sensitivity areas do need specific funding.



Financing problems

• Concerning the studies of sensitivity foreseen in MEDEX, an alternative or complementary source of indirect financing could be the assumption of some of these studies by EUCOS (EUMETNET Composite Observing System programme), in its planning of scientific work. The support of EUMETNET to this assumption is seen as plausible, taking into account that several of the members of EUMETNET are also participating in MEDEX.

• The institutions that are participating in MEDEX are exploring possible sources of financing: In principle, the most plausible way could be the achievement of an optional project on MEDEX of the European Network of Meteorological Services (EUMETNET). An optional project of EUMETNET is financed by a group of members (meteorological services) that adhere to the project. The EUMETNET project on MEDEX would be mostly oriented towards the best implementation and operation of the MEDEX Data Base and to the performance of specific studies on sensitivity. INM-Spain could undertake the role of responsible member for such a project, although there are other possibilities, because other several members of EUMETNET, the national meteorological services of France, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, are also participant institutions in MEDEX.

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

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