MEDA Summer Conference 2016: Maryland Occupational Forecase
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MARYLAND OCCUPATIONAL FORECAST TODD METCALFE, PH.D., SENIOR ECONOMIST JULY 27, 2016 © TOWSON UNIVERSITY, DIVISION OF INNOVATION & APPLIED RESEARCH || 1
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Transcript of MEDA Summer Conference 2016: Maryland Occupational Forecase
MARYLAND OCCUPATIONAL FORECAST
T O D D M E T C A L F E , P H . D . , S E N I O R E C O N O M I S T
J U L Y 2 7 , 2 0 1 6
© T O W S O N U N I V E R S I T Y , D I V I S I O N O F I N N O V A T I O N & A P P L I E D R E S E A R C H | | 1
Source: RESI© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
-1,521
-714
-227
-225
-155
-69
27
207
328
866
1,362
1,755
1,781
2,700
2,906
3,052
3,234
4,822
7,564
12,579
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Manufacturing
Information
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities
Mining
Other Services, except Public Administration
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Wholesale Trade
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Educational Services
Total Government
Accommodation and Food Services
Administrative and Waste Management Services
Retail Trade
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Construction
Growth in Number of Jobs
Forecasted Employment Growth by Sector
2016–2018 Annual Average, Maryland
OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTING
• Estimates the number of job openings (or growth/decline of openings)
for a given occupation
• Is driven by economic factors/indicators
• Business cycle
• Is driven by non-economic factors
• Demographics
• Technology changes
• Policy changes.
OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTING
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Mar
ylan
der
sMaryland's Population
Composition by Age, 1990–2060
Ages 0-14 Ages 15-24 Ages 25-64 Ages 65+
Ages 25-64
Ages 65+
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: REMI PI+
Historical Projected
Ages 15-24
Ages 0-14
WHAT IS PROM?
© T O W S O N U N I V E R S I T Y , D I V I S I O N O F I N N O V A T I O N & A P P L I E D R E S E A R C H | | 5
Predictive Regional Occupational Matrix
• Provides occupation-level estimates, based on industry-level economic forecasts and
economic impact analyses.
Eg: If the Healthcare and Social Assistance sector grows, will there be a need for more
doctors, nurses, sonography technologists, phlebotomists, etc.?
• Predictions are custom tailored by state and region.
• Predicted output can include information such as:
Educational Requirements
Related Careers
For potential job changes
For career path planning
Wages.
O-NET groups occupations by Job Zone, based on the following characteristics:
Education level required
Relevant experience needed
On-the-job training expected
There are five job zones:
WHAT ARE JOB ZONES?
Job Zone Preparation Needed Example Degrees/Experience
5Extensive Doctors Doctorate's and master's with experience
4Considerable Teachers Bachelor's and master's
3Medium Electricians Associate's, bachelor's, and apprenticeships
2Some Tellers some on-the-job training
1Little to no Waiters minimal on-the-job training
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: REMI PI+, RESI
46
55
57
59
64
74
77
142
152
169
0 50 100 150 200
Physician Assistants
Healthcare Social Workers
Pharmacists
Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners, All Other
Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists
Financial Managers
Physical Therapists
Medical and Health Services Managers
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other
Lawyers
Increase in number of jobs
Top Ten Job Zone 5 Occupations Maryland, Average Annual Growth (2017–2019)
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: REMI PI+, RESI
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Set and Exhibit Designers
Nurse Midwives
Home Economics Teachers, Postsecondary
Materials Scientists
Law Teachers, Postsecondary
Animal Scientists
Orthotists and Prosthetists
Architecture Teachers, Postsecondary
Curators
Atmospheric, Earth, Marine, and Space SciencesTeachers, Postsecondary
Increase in number of jobs
Bottom Ten Job Zone 5 OccupationsMaryland, Average Annual Growth (2017–2019)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2015 2016 2017
New
Law
Op
enin
gs o
r N
um
ber
of
Bar
Exa
m P
asse
sLaw Openings vs. New Lawyers
2015–2017, Maryland
New Lawyers New Law Openings
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: REMI PI+, RESI
109
121
139
140
181
241
286
299
381
455
0 100 200 300 400 500
Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/TechnicalEducation
Computer Systems Analysts
Civil Engineers
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education
Management Analysts
Cost Estimators
Sales Representatives, Services, All Other
Accountants and Auditors
Construction Managers
General and Operations Managers
Increase in number of jobs
Top Ten Job Zone 4 OccupationsMaryland, Average Annual Growth (2017–2019)
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: REMI PI+, RESI
-18
-15
-13
-10
-6
-5
-2
-2
-1
-1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0
Editors
Industrial Engineers
Industrial Production Managers
Producers and Directors
Reporters and Correspondents
Labor Relations Specialists
Nuclear Engineers
Materials Engineers
Broadcast News Analysts
Directors, Religious Activities and Education
Decrease in number of jobs
Bottom Ten Job Zone 4 OccupationsMaryland, Average Annual Loss (2017–2019)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2015 2016 2017
Gro
wth
in C
on
stru
ctio
n M
anag
eme
nt
Op
enin
gs o
r B
ach
elo
r-s
Deg
ree
Co
mp
leti
on
sShortage in Construction Managers
2015–2017, Maryland
New Construction Management Openings Civil Engineering Graduates Construction Management Graduates
CE graduates:
158
CM graduates:
11
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: RESI, IPEDS
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: REMI PI+, RESI
194
223
283
312
329
669
703
779
835
836
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General
Medical Secretaries
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative SupportWorkers
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics andInstallers
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters
Electricians
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical,and Executive
First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and ExtractionWorkers
Registered Nurses
Increase in number of jobs
Top Ten Job Zone 3 OccupationsMaryland, Average Annual Growth (2017–2019)
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: REMI PI+, RESI
-24
-19
-19
-8
-7
-6
-6
-5
-5
-4
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Machinists
Printing Press Operators
Industrial Machinery Mechanics
Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians
Prepress Technicians and Workers
Maintenance Workers, Machinery
Electrical and Electronics Repairers, Powerhouse, Substation, andRelay
Industrial Engineering Technicians
Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic
Tool and Die Makers
Decrease in number of jobs
Bottom Ten Job Zone 3 OccupationsMaryland, Average Annual Loss (2017–2019)
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: RESI, Maryland Board of Nursing
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2015 2016 2017
New
RN
Op
enin
gs o
r N
ew R
Ns
Shortage for Registered Nurses2015–2017
New RN Openings Average Number of New RNs
THANK YOU
© T O W S O N U N I V E R S I T Y , D I V I S I O N O F I N N O V A T I O N & A P P L I E D R E S E A R C H | | 1 6
Towson University Regional Economic Studies Institute
• www.towson.edu/resi
Todd Metcalfe, Ph.D., Senior Economist
