Measuring and Modeling Your Carbon - Haas CNU 17
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GHG Reductions from Location Efficient Development
CNUJune 13, 2009
Peter Haas
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Center for Neighborhood Technology
• CNT is an “Urban Think & Do Tank” in Chicago– Been around over 30 years– Work in Transportation, Energy, Natural Resources
and Climate– Geographic Research and Information Department
has 10 people– CNT is the recipient of the 2009 MacArthur Award for
Creative & Effective Institutions
• We work closely with Reconnecting America and Strategic Economics in a partnership – Center for Transit Oriented Design, or CTOD
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Outline
• GHG and Regional Growth Paper – CTOD Project for the FTA– How does a household save GHG emissions by
location choice?– How does this aggregate up to a specific transit
zone?– How can a region’s GHGs be reduced by encouraging
compact/infill development?
• Show off New Web Based Tool - Can every metropolitan region benefit from efficient development?
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Household Transportation Model
• From the work with CTOD on the H+Tsm affordability index we have developed a model for that estimated household vmt, and how it is driven by different types of households in different locations.
• Major findings:• Location matters as much or more than
household make up• Higher density, more walkable, more access
to transit, and higher employment proximity results in lower auto use…
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Household Auto Use
• Location Efficiency, a major driver:
4 Environment Variables:Households/residential acreAvg. block size in acresTransit Connectivity IndexIntegrated Job Proximity
4 Household Variables
Household income
Household sizeWorkers per Household Average time for Journey to work
Auto Ownership+
Auto Usage
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Household Auto Use
• Auto ownership…
Autos per HH
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
Residential Density
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0 50000 100000 150000 200000
Employment Density - Jobs/Square Mile
0.00
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2.00
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Au
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per
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Household Auto Use
• VMT
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Autos per HH
6000.00
8000.00
10000.00
12000.00
14000.00
16000.00
Mil
es D
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en/A
uto
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MM M
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0.0 2.0 4.0 6 .0 8 .0 10.0
Residential Density
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Mil
es D
riv
en/A
uto
M
M
M
M
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MM M
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0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Employment Density
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Mil
es D
riv
en/A
uto
M
M
M
M
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MMM
M MM
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Household GHG Emissions
• Looking at only CO2 from household transportation use• This represents approximately:
– Transport ~ 33% of all CO2
– HH Transportation is approximately 75% of all transport emissions– Therefore, 75%*33% = 25% of the total
• From the modeled VMT per household we estimate the GHG production:
• Where we assume 20.3 mpg and about 9 lbs/gallon for Ef
EfGas=CO
mpgvmt=Gas
*2
/
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Strategy
• Look at how households in the various areas within the Chicago Metro vary their behavior
• Evaluate the value of that in terms of household transportation GHG emission
• See if different growth scenarios impact the regional total...
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How Does this Add up?
Average Modeled
LocationResidential Density (Households per Residential Acre)
Transit Access (Walkable Transit Options)
Integrated Employment Proximity(Jobs/Sq Mile)
Block Size (Acres)
Annual HH VMT (Miles)
CO2e
Generated (Metric Tons)
Average location 10.34 4.96 56,824 16.6 12,801 5.60
Average location near fixed rail
17.4 8.83 85,206 9.3 10,874 4.75
Average location NOT near fixed rail 5.4 2.24 36,920 21.7 15168 6.63
Average suburban location 4.3 2.24 32,315 21.8 15,925 6.96
Average Suburban location near fixed rail 5.1 3.82 40,215 13.7 14,898 6.51
Average Suburban location NOT near fixed rail 4.0 1.63 29,228 25.0 16,365 7.15
Average Chicago location 12.0 10.67 108,445 5.6 9,875 4.32
Average Chicago location near fixed rail 27.9 13.14 123,884 5.4 9,310 4.07
Average Chicago locationNOT near fixed rail 12.2 5.22 74,317 5.8 11,766 5.14
Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area
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Zonal Approach
• Look at transit zones and show that they tend to be location efficient but not always!
• Per Household Emissions
NameResidential Density (Households per Residential Acre)
Transit Access (Walkable Transit Options)
Integrated Employment Proximity(Jobs/Sq Mile)
Block Size (Acres)
Current HHsCO2/HH
Highest Location Efficient Transit Zones 61.7 97.7 671,546 3.4 1.86
High Location Efficient Transit Zones 30.4 25.6 171,750 4.1 3.57
High Medium Location Efficient Transit Zones 9.3 13.2 66,973 5.4 5.25
Medium Location Efficient Transit Zones 3.8 6.4 46,086 12.6 6.29
Low Location Efficient Transit Zones 4.5 1.7 41,088 9.2 6.65
Low Location Efficient Transit Zones 0.7 0.9 17,065 39.6 8.47
Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area
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Zonal Approach
Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Highest LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
High LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
High MediumLocation Efficient
Transit Zones
Medium LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
Low LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
Low LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
Household Transportation CO2
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GHG Accounting
• So for transit zones that get developed into TODs the potential is there for the GHG emissions from that zone to actually go up!
Name Residential DensityNumber of HouseholdsCurrent HHs CO2e /HHCurrent HHsTotal CO2e
Highest Location Efficient Transit Zones 61.7 17,668 1.86 32,862
High Location Efficient Transit Zones 30.4 9,938 3.57 35,478
High Medium Location Efficient Transit Zones 9.3 3,434 5.25 18,028
Medium Location Efficient Transit Zones 3.8 1,390 6.29 8,740
Low Location Efficient Transit Zones 4.5 1,840 6.65 12,234
Low Location Efficient Transit Zones 0.7 251 8.47 2,123
Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area
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Zonal Approach
Based on Chicago Metropolitan Area
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Highest LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
High LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
High MediumLocation Efficient
Transit Zones
Medium LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
Low LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
Low LocationEfficient Transit
Zones
Zone Total Hh Tsp CO2
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Regional Analysis
• However, as a region grows more efficiently the potential is for the entire region the GHG emissions will be less
• Since the per household emissions are being reduced, for the new households
• Case study – the Chicago metro region
Additional: Population Households Jobs
Region 1,958,715 728,907 1,237,550
Chicago 364,881 159,235 246,640
Suburbs 1,593,834 569,672 990,910
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Opportunity
• How will these people and jobs distribute themselves in the next 30 year
• CMAP has modeled how that will happen
• But what if we could develop differently
• With TOD as a central goal we can develop different ways of developing
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Current Situation
• Estimate of total GHG emissions from household auto use
Total Chicago Suburbs
Residential Density 8.1 hh/res acre 13.3 hh/res acre 4.3 hh/res acre
Integrated Employment Proximity 63,366 J/m2 98,300 J/m2 38,224 J/m2
Average Block Size 11.6 Acres 5.5 Acres 16.0 Acres
Transit Connectivity Index 5.3 8.8 2.8
Median Household Income $54,031/Year $40,217/Year $63,973/Year
Average Household Size 2.9 People 2.9 People 2.8 People
Average Household Workers 1.3 Workers 1.1 Workers 1.4 Workers
Average Time to Work 32.3 Min. 36.3 Min. 29.5 Min.
CO2/HH Local 6.3 4.9 7.4
Households (Census 2000) 2,906,900 1,063,052 1,843,848
Aggregate CO2
(CO2/HH Local * Households)18,313,470 5,208,955 13,644,475
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Current Situation
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Business as Usual
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TOD with CMAP Suburban/Urban Growth Constraints
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TOD with no Growth Constraints
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Results of Different Growth Patterns
2000
2030
Business as Usual (BAU) TOD with Constraints TOD with no Constraints
VMT Total Region 40,727,112,911 48,521,240,467 46,738,979,153 45,726,469,387
Increase of VMT from 2000 7,794,127,556 6,011,866,242 4,999,356,476
CO2e (Metric Tons) 18,457,608 21,989,922 21,182,197 20,723,326
Increase in CO2e from 2000 3,532,314 2,724,590 2,265,718
CO2e Reduction from BAU807,724
(23%)1,266,596
(36%)
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Results of Different Growth Patterns
2000
2030
Business as Usual (BAU) TOD with Constraints TOD with no Constraints
VMT Total Region 40,727,112,911 48,521,240,467 46,738,979,153 45,726,469,387
Increase of VMT from 2000 7,794,127,556 6,011,866,242 4,999,356,476
CO2e (Metric Tons) 18,457,608 21,989,922 21,182,197 20,723,326
Increase in CO2e from 2000 3,532,314 2,724,590 2,265,718
CO2e Reduction from BAU807,724
(23%)1,266,596
(36%)
Overall reduction of ~ 39% of 25% ~ 10% of all Regional GHGs!
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H+Tsm Website and Two Views of Cities
• http://htaindex.cnt.org/ • Website initially developed as a
result of our work with the Brookings Institution’s Urban Markets Initiative.
• Looks at 55 metropolitan regions, from Ft. Wayne to New York City
• Striking how similar regions are…
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Conclusions
• Location Efficient Development is a very important piece of GHG reductions
• Paper– Final Document in Peer Review at FTA– Currently developing this work with 3-5 more
regional case studies– Long term – build a web tool demonstrates these
reductions
• Improve H+T website to include all 337 metropolitan areas in US
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For More Information
Dr. Peter HaasChief Research Scientist
Email – [email protected] – pmh_cnt
Become a fan of Center for Neighborhood Technology on Facebook
Phone 773-269-4034
http://www.cnt.orghttp://htaindex.cnt.org