Massimiliano Riva

Istanbul, 19 November 2008

Trade and Human DevelopmentHow to conduct trade needs assessments in

transition economies

• How the guide should be used?

•A menu of options

•Further work needed

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

How the guide should be used?

Does the guide provide a predetermined format for conducting trade and HD needs assessments?

Does the guide provide a regional outlook on trade in CIS and Eastern Europe?

NO

NODoes the guide identify country priorities and provide

policy options?NO

How the guide should be used (continue)?

Does the guide provide a framework for understanding the linkages between trade and HD?

Does the guide provide tools for analyzing the linkages between trade and HD ?

YES

Does the guide provide hints and tools on how to design and conduct trade assessments ?

YES

YES

GUIDE CHAPTERS?

Guide chapters1. Introduction and overview2. Trade Mainstreaming 3. Trade and Human Development 4. Aid For Trade Needs Assessment: Structure And

Process5. Macroeconomic and Business Environment 6. Trade and Investment Policies 7. Trade Facilitation and Standards 8. Sectoral Analysis9. Trade Policies: an Impact Assessment

Macroeconomic and Business Environment

A brief description of the macroeconomic environmentto set the background for the analysis. It should include socialmacro variables, inequality, social expenditures, etc..Tools described: Political Economic Social and Technological

Business environment. The business environment section

Should provide a picture of the country’s overall

competitiveness and identify the main barriers and obstacles.

Already existing survey should be used.

TRADE AND INVSTMENT POLICIES

This chapter should review trade and investmentpolicies and explain country specific dynamics…the main ain ingredients are

• Trade and investment statistics• Institutional mapping• Trade and investment policies• Trade and agreements and accession to WTO

TRADE FACILITATION

… traditionally defined as the simplification and harmonization of international trade procedures, including the activities…

Poverty reduction and human development focus

Reduce the “costs of exporting and importing goods” for

small and micro entrepreneurs, farmers and associations

of farmers… inclusive access to markets

SECTOR ASSESSMENTSTools presented (more in the annexes):• SWOT• Value chain analysis• Cluster analysis

The analysis should identify linkages withhuman development by looking at newopportunities that will spring from increased trade

Traditionally most direct linkages are related toemployment opportunities and working conditions.

SECTOR ASSESSMENTS

gender equity, wage inequality

quality and “security” of generated jobs

threats towards the environment and cultural resources

productivity in FDI

access to service, trade finance

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TRADE POLICIES: AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT

• Human Development Impact Assessment (HDIA)• Poverty and social impact assessment (PSIA)• Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA)

Qualitative vs Quantitative methods for trade analysisParticipatory poverty assessments

Partial equilibrium models

Computable General Equilibrium

Gravity models

Stakeholder Analysis

Human Development Impact Assessment (HDIA)

Ten key questions grouped in four sections:

(i) trade policy change and expected effects

(ii) transmission channels and expected trade related outcomes

(iii) implementation considerations and constraints

(iv) post-assessment considerations.

Human Development Impact Assessment (HDIA)

(1) Which trade policies are being analyzed?(2) What are the expected effects or changes?(3) Which groups are most likely to be affected and how?(4) How are the impacts likely to be channelled?(5) What will be the impact on the institutional, legal and

regulatory environment?(6) Which institutions will affect the outcomes?(7) What are the measures of human development being

assessed?(8) What are the data and knowledge constraints?(9) What will be the impact on policy space?(10) What monitoring and mitigation measures will be needed?

SUMMARY: some suggestions• Prioritize on country needs

• Identify data constraints

• Identify different suitable methodologies and chose the most suitable for each context and research objective

• Assure a participatory approach from early design

• Be innovative at looking at sector analysis

• Read numbers with human development lens

• Think about follow up actions when preparing recommendations

The tools available to disclose the black box between trade, growth and poverty are still not sufficiently developed and should be expanded.

FURTHER RESEARCH NEEDED

The tools and strategies presented in the guide need to be tested on the ground and learn from a wider spectrum of experiences.

There is a need to produce quality economic research form academia on the topic. There are few forerunners, but also a long tradition…

THANK YOU

massimiliano.riva@undp.org

http://europeandcis.undp.org/poverty/trade/