Market Study -Final(2)

8/11/2019 Market Study -Final(2)

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1.MARKET STUDY

1.1 INTRODUCTION

The following market t!"# wa $arrie" o!t with a %e$ifi$ $o%e& that i a

te$hni$al'e$onomi$ feai(ilit# anal#i $entere" on the eta(lihing of a Meltho%

an" a Rolling Mill %lant to %ro"!$e re'(ar from S$ra% a raw material for

"ometi$ market an" if an# for the international one. The etimate" ann!al

%ro"!$tion $a%a$it# i )*+,+++ t%# of re'(ar.

The main aim of thi t!"# i to ae the %at "e-elo%ment of re'(ar an" (illet

an" to fore$at their f!t!re tren"& motl# in term of relate" %ro"!$tion&

$on!m%tion an" %ri$e.

The %erio" taken into $oni"eration goe from ++/ to ++ an" tatiti$al "ata

anal#0e"& (oth re'(ar an" (illet& are the following

R!ian %ro"!$tion of (illet an" long %ro"!$t 2of whi$h re'(ar3

intalle" $a%a$it#

4illet an" re'(ar tra"ing market (etween R!ia an" it hitori$all#

mot im%ortant %artner $o!ntrie.

International an" lo$al (illet 5 re'(ar %ro$e.

A to f!t!re fore$at& the market t!"# tret$he to the ++ .

1. RUSSIAN ECONOMY

BASIC FIGURES

The tatiti$al fig!re for in R!ia in the #ear ++/& ++6 an" +11 are a

follow:

7o%!lation

+1+ 181 mil

9D7 %er $a%ita

++/ US: 1;,1;1

++6 US: 18,6++

+1+ US: 1*,/++

Inflation rate

++6 /./ ternal tra"e -ol!me

++/ =;) 4ln :

++6 86* 4ln :

+1+ ;86 4ln :

Dire$t ?oreign In-etment

++/ 1++ 4ln :

++6 /1 4ln :

+1+ 116 4ln :

The a(o-e Data in"i$ate that

In ++6 R!ia e>%erien$e" a re"!$tion in the 9D7 (# /


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R!ia ha en@o#e" a tea"# e$onomi$ growth of o-er lat #ear& for m!$h of the

+1+ an" fore$at $ontin!ing 9D7 growth of US: 1,+++ a far a +1* at

leat& an" inflation at aro!n" =.6 %e$t an in$reae of =+ < in the -ol!me of

work o-er the %erio" from +11 till ++.

Billet Production:

The 4illet 7ro"!$tion "!ring the lat #ear& from ++/ to +11

++/ 1/.+ mil ton

++6 1;.1 mil ton

+1+ 1=.; mil ton

+11 16.8 mil ton

?ore$at of the 4illet 7ro"!$tion for the #ear from +11 till ++ i

etimate" to (e 1++< growth 2i.e. 8+.+ mil ton (# the #ear ++3.

ReBar Production:

7ro"!$tion of finihe" %ro"!$t "!ring the lat #ear from ++/ till

+11

++/ ;.18 mil ton

++6 *.=+ mil ton +1+ *.18 mil ton


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+11 *.61 mil ton

?ore$at for the finihe" %ro"!$t %ro"!$tion for the #ear from +11

till ++ i etimate" to (e 1+6 11* < 2i.e. in the range of 1) mil ton

(# the #ear ++3.

1.)OERIEB O? TFE 7ROGECT

1.).1.7ro"!$t Mi>

Re'(ar main "etination are in the $ontr!$tion e$tor. ow an" me"i!m i0e

largel# !e" in %ri-ate ho!ing a$ti-it# an" in reinfor$e" $on$rete from 1+ to 1/

mm. Con!m%tion e$tor for high i0e' in the*'8+ mm range' i mainl# !e" for$i-il an" in"!trial $ontr!$tion like in"!trial (!il"ing an" %lant& %ower

%lant& (ri"ge& roa"& "am an" t!nnel.

1.)..Marketing Strateg#

Thi anal#i ha (een $arrie" o!t on the (ai of the marketing trateg# of the

%ro@e$te" meltho% an" rolling mill fa$ilit#& whoe whole o!t%!t will (e

%otentiall# "eli-ere" to the lo$al market& e-ent!all# an# !r%l! !antit# $o!l"(e "eli-ere" to the foreign market.

The e$onomi$ an" finan$ial re!lt of thi trateg# ha-e (een anal#0e" in term

of eniti-it# anal#i 2ee $ha%ter ;3. thi mean& for ) an" 8th#ear re%e$ti-el#&

*+&+++ an" )++&+++ t%# $al$!lating a reaona(le a-erage !tili0ation rate of the

)*+&+++ t%# intalle" nominal $a%a$it# .

1.8.?INA MARKETS

1.8.1.o$al Market

A to the "efinition of lo$al market& "ata an" information ha-e (een e>tra$te"

from %e$iali0e" o!r$e an" inter-iew with lo$al tra"er an" %ro"!$er.

?ore$at on f!t!re $on!m%tion ha-e (een worke" o!t thro!gh en"'!e anal#i

$riteria linke" to the $ontr!$tion 5 ho!ing e$tor& whoe "ata ha-e (een"e"!$e" from offi$ial o!r$e.


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The lo$al re'(ar %ro"!$tion in #ear +11 ha rea$he" *.61 mil ton whi$h will (e

a!me" a the $on!m%tion of the lo$al market. The etimate" market "eman"

in the #ear ++ will (e from 1.* to 1*.+ mil ton5#ear.

On the other han"& re'(ar %ro"!$tion in R!ia ha to to rie from *.61 mil ton

in the #ear +11 to the range of 1.* mil to 1*.+ mil ton in the #ear ++.

The following ta(le how the to"a# e>iting installed%ro"!$tion $a%a$it# of the

teel fa$ilitie in R!ia. The ta(le how that the intalle" $a%a$it# for Hmall,

%ro"!$t i 6.;) mil ton in the #ear +11. Bhile %!(lihe" "ata gi-e a total

%ro"!$tion of *.61 mil ton in the ame #ear. Thi in"i$ate that there i a reer-e

$a%a$it# of ).= mil ton5#ear in the e>iting lo$al teel fa$torie.


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JLJ

If we $oni"er the mot o%timiti$ $enario& $oni"ering thee mill will go into

f!ll %ro"!$tion "!ring the #ear +11 till ++ 2%ro"!$ing a(o!t 6.;) mil ton3 &

an" ha-ing an ann!al "eman" of re'(ar in the #ear ++ of almot 1) mil ton&

the ga% in %ro"!$tion will (e in the range of ).+ to *.+ mil ton. Thi how that

the olo"ga %ro@e$t !n"er t!"# 2%ro"!$ing )*+,+++ t%#3 will ha-e a g!arantee"

hare in the market of re'(ar.

The main "ri-er of teel "eman" will in$l!"e the A7EC la"i-otok S!mmit in

+1& the St!"ent 9ame in Ka0an in +1) an" the Ol#m%i$ 9ame in So$hi in+18. 7re%aration for the worl" foot(all $ham%ionhi% in +1/ will !n"er%in


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!(e!ent "eman" ?I?A +1/ in R!ia i etimate" to re!ire ome ) mt teel

%ro"!$t for ta"i!m $ontr!$tion alone.

It ho!l" (e note" that there are %ro@e$t for re'(ar %ro"!$tion !n"er

$ontr!$tion 2one of them i new an" the other i e>tenion3& a in"i$ate" later in

thi t!"#.

A$$or"ing to "ata i!e" (# HMetals Consulting International MCI the

alrea"# $ontra$te"'for %ro@e$t in the teel in"!tr#& for either mo"erni0ation or

$a%a$it# in$reae& in R!ia& till en" of the #ear +11 are a follow

!odernisation and ca"acit# ex"ansion "ro$ects %&''

In RUSSIA (source: MCI)

Russia( Estar( U)*norussi+i# Steel ,or+s( EAF - CC - .eav# sections(

/eams( angles and c*annels0 Su""lier is S!S Grou"1s C23CAST

Russia( Evra) - 4S!5 $v( Si/irs+# Electrometallurgical Plant( EAF - CC -Bar !ill( ne6 mill in Ir+uts+ region for "roduction *ig* 7ualit# long

"roducts

Russia( Evra) .oldings( 3i)*n# Tagil !etallurgical 5om/inat( 8adle

furnace( 8F90 Construction to start end%&'& or earl# %&''

Russia( !ec*el( I)*stal( 4ar mill( reconstruction of !ill %;&

Russia( !ec*el( C*el#a/ins+ !etallurgical Plant( Casting /illet - /loom(

/loom caster 9;0 Investment includes vacuum degasser and ladle furnace

Russia( !ec*el( C*el#a/ins+ !etallurgical Plant( Co+e ovens(

reconstruction of co+e /atter# 9


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2EMP3& i $!rrentl# !n"er $ontr!$tion in R!iaQ I-ano-o region& northeat of

Mo$ow.

The firt %hae of the %lant& with an ann!al $a%a$it# of onl# ;*&+++ ton of mall

"iameter re(ar 2/'1; mm3 wa $he"!le" to (e $ommiione" in Mar$h +11.

The a(o-e anal#i how that the %ro@e$t !n"er t!"# will %arti$i%ate in fillingthe ga% (etween "eman" an" %ro"!$tion "!ring ne>t #ear.

1.*.STEE 7RODUCT 7RICES

Referen$e market $o!l" (e "i-i"e" into three main area whi$h are %ri$e

lea"er for the %ro"!$t $oni"ere" R!ia an" Bet E!ro%e an" T!rke#.

Taking into a$$o!nt hitori$al erie for (illet an" re'(ar %ri$e "!ring the lat

#ear ++/ till +11& the# (oth t!rn o!t to (e almot i"enti$al in their tren"& with

ome %e$!liaritie a$$or"ing to the area5$o!ntr# $oni"ere".

The following ta(le gi-e the hitor# of re'(ar %ri$e for the lat 8 #ear 2AT

in$l!"e"3


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5VWX

Month5#ear

++/V.

re(ar

++6V.

re(ar

+1+

re(ar

+11

re(ar

2010 ($) -CIS-bie! i"2010

2010 #%&''%%($)- *eb+r-,ure.

Z[J\]'@an +*++ 16*++ 1/*++ 8+++ 8* 86+

^[\JL]'

fe(.

8*++ 16*++ 16+++ 8*++ 8=+ **

J\_'mar$h ;*++ 16*++ 16*++ **++ 8*+ *1+

`\L]'a%ril /*++ 1=*++ *+++ =+++ ;1+ =1+

Jb'ma# )*++ 1=*++ **++ =*++ */+ ;+

cdZ] '@!ne )8*++ 1=*++ 8*++ /*++ 86+ *;+

cdL]'@!l# )**++ 1/+++ 8+++ 6*++ 8)+ *1+

`[V_'

a!g!t

)8*++ 16*++ **++ )++++ *++ *8+

Z_\]'

e%.

)1+++ +*++ **++ 6*++ **+ ;1+

_\]'

o$t.

8*++ ++++ *+++ 6+++ ** *6+

W\]'no-. 16*++ 16+++ 8*++ =*++ No "ata No "ata

jJ\]"e$. 18*++ 1/*++ 8+++ =*++ No "ata No "ata

/rices o reb+rs i" ce"!r+ reio" o *ussi+ i"c3+! or !r+4ers i" rubes


10/11

The a(o-e ta(le how the lo$al elling %ri$e of teel re'(ar in

R!ia. The %ri$e in$l!"e 1/ < AT. In thi t!"# we hall !e

-al!e witho!t AT

The ?inan$ial St!"#& Se$tion )& will a!me an a-erage $!rrent %ri$e

of re'(ar e!al *,+++ r!(5ton &AT not in$l!"e".

The following gra%h how the hitor# of the re(ar %ri$e o-er the lat #ear for

Bet E!ro%ean an" Mi""le Eat

Reinforcing re-bar prices

In %arti$!lar& a to e>'work re'(ar %ri$e in R!ia & a higher %eak wa

regitere" in G!l# +11 26,*++ r!(5ton& e!al to /8+ US:5ton3 an" wa almot

maintaine" !ntil 2O$to(er +113. ?or Bet E!ro%e an" T!rke# fo( %ri$e were

in the range of =*+ to /++ US:5ton "!ring the ame %erio" of time.

Re%e$ti-el#& a-erage %ri$e 2min'ma>3 in the %eak %erio" were

-/*+ ' //+ US:5 ton for R!ia

- =*+ /++ US: 5 ton for Betern E!ro%e an" T!rke#

4ottom %ri$e in R!ia wa rea$he" in 2A%ril to Ma# &Year ++63 & when

a-erage %ri$e l!m%e" to *1* US:5ton& T!rke# an" Betern E!ro%e fo( %ri$e

went to omething le than *++ US:5ton "!ring the ame %erio" of time.

It eem that& after a trong re"!$tion in re(ar %ri$e& "ifferen$e in ale %ri$e

ten" to re"!$e to a nearl# referen$e %ri$e& whilt after a trong in$reae

"ifferen$e ten" to grow.


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A e>tra referen$e& the following gra%h how the tren" of re(ar %ri$e in the

USA& %ri$e i :54

Re(ar USA Steel 7ri$e 1 Year

Re(ar USA Steel 7ri$e ) Year Re(ar USA Steel 7ri$e * Year

1 :54 .1 :5kg a%%ro>.

Ma>. 7ri$e in +11 /+ :5tonMin. 7ri$e in ++6 *+* :5ton

Market Study -Final(2)

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