Market Outlook, 28th January 2013

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

    Dealers Diary

    The Indian market is expected to open marginally in the green tracing positive

    opening trades in the SGX Nifty and most of the Asian indices.

    The US markets moved notably higher over the course of the trading day on

    Friday. The markets benefited from a positive reaction to the latest batch of

    earnings news, which overshadowed a disappointing housing report. Major

    European bourses ended the trading session on Friday in positive territory. The

    stronger than expected increase in German business sentiment and the news

    regarding bank repayment of LTROs were viewed positively. Comments from ECB

    President Mario Draghi also provided a boost to investor sentiment. The markets

    were largely able to shrug off the higher than expected decline in British GDP.

    Meanwhile, the Indian markets rallied on Friday on growing hopes of at least 25

    basis points cut in policy rates by the RBI in its upcoming monetary policy review on

    Tuesday. Reports that the RBI may issue final guidelines for new bank permits bynext month and positive global cues following upbeat economic data from China,

    Europe and the U.S. also helped boost investor risk appetite.

    Markets Today

    The trend deciding level for the day is 20,054 / 6,057 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 20,179 20,254 / 6,099 6,123 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    20,054 / 6,057 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    19,978 19,853 / 6,033 5,990 levels.

    SENSEX 19,853 19,978 20,054 20,179 20,254NIFTY 5,990 6,033 6,057 6,099 6,123

    News Analysis Defence Ministry classifies RIL's KG-D6 block as "No-Go" area Godrej Consumer Products to sell Indonesian food biz to Creador Ceat signs JV with a Bangladesh firm 3QFY2013 Result Review: Maruti Suzuki , Persistent, Sarda Energy 3QFY2013 Result Preview: Bank of India, JSW Steel, KPITRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (January 23, 2013)

    FII 3,530 2,716 815 16,427 16,427

    MFs 435 651 (216) (2,994) (2,994)

    FII Derivatives (January 25, 2013)

    Index Futures 2,343 2,656 (313) 7,915

    Stock Futures 3,352 3,018 334 33,933

    Gainers / Losers

    Suzlon Energy 21 16.9 Coromandel Intl 224 (3.2)HDIL 83 10.5 Marico 217 (2.3)

    Jubl Food 1,266 7.9 Exide Inds. 121 (2.1)

    Reliance Comm 86 7.6 Astrazeneca Phar 1,361 (1.9)

    Glenmark Pharma 513 6.7 SJVN 22 (1.8)

    BSE Sensex 0.9 179.7 20,104

    Nifty 0.9 55.3 6,075

    MID CAP 1.8 125.6 6,974

    SMALL CAP 1.0 72.9 7,143

    BSE HC 1.5 118.1 7,991

    BSE PSU 1.2 94.3 7,678

    BANKEX 1.2 168.2 14,565

    AUTO 2.2 236.8 11,071

    METAL 1.6 163.2 10,599

    OIL & GAS 0.4 36.7 9,536

    BSE IT 0.9 58.4 6,414

    Dow Jones 0.5 70.6 13,896NASDAQ 0.6 19.3 3,150

    FTSE 0.3 19.5 6,284

    Nikkei 2.9 305.8 10,927

    Hang Seng (0.1) (18.5) 23,580

    Straits Times 0.6 20.9 3,269

    Shanghai Com (0.5) (11.3) 2,291

    INFY 0.1 0.0 $52.7

    WIT 1.9 0.2 $9.4IBN 1.9 0.9 $46.4

    HDB 0.6 0.3 $40.8

    Advances 1,663 926

    Declines 1,214 585

    Unchanged 114 76

    BSE 2,364

    NSE 12,915

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

    Defence Ministry classifies RIL's KG-D6 block as "No-Go"area

    Media reports suggest that the Defence Ministry has classified Reliance Industries

    (RIL) and its partner BP Plc's KG-D6 gas fields and gas discovery area NEC-25 as

    "No-Go" areas. Media sources also suggest that Ministry of Defence has eitherwithdrawn or withheld clearances for 47 oil and gas blocks (14 of which have

    been classified as "No-Go areas). RIL-BP's KG-DWN-98/3 or KG-D6 block has

    been declared as "No-Go" as it overlaps with a proposed Naval base. KG-D6 was

    awarded to RIL during CY2000 by the Cabinet after clearances from all ministries

    concerned and it has been producing gas beginning April 1, 2009. Currently, the

    gas output from KG-D6 block is approximately 24mmscmd. RIL-BP's Mahanadi

    basin block NEC-OSN-97/2 (NEC-25) where sizable gas discoveries have been

    made, has also been classified as "No-Go" area as it is close to missile launching

    range/air force exercise area. Approximately 11% of our RILs SOTP valuation

    comes from KG-D6 and NEC-25 blocks. Hence, this event is likely to have a

    negative impact on RILs stock price in the near-term. However, we await further

    clarity on this matter. Until then,

    Out of the 12 No-Go areas, there are some blocks allocated to ONGC and

    Cairn India. However, there is lack of clarity on the quantum of production from

    these blocks currently. Hence,

    Godrej Consumer Products to sell Indonesian food biz to

    Creador

    Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) has entered into an agreement with privateequity firm Creador to divest its non-core food business in Indonesia. The

    transaction is expected to be completed in two months. GCPLs food business in

    Indonesia includes cereals, snack and instant food products under the brands

    Simba and Turbo. GCPL had acquired these businesses in 2010 as a part of its

    deal to acquire the Megasari group in 2010. GCPLs Indonesian food businesses

    generated net sales of about US $22 million in 2012. Although GCPL has not

    disclosed the deal, media reports place the value of the deal at US $30-34mn. We

    believe this decision by GCPL would enable it to focus on its core home and

    personal care business. We also expect the companys profit margins to improve

    and result in better return ratios.

    Ceat has signed a joint venture (JV) agreement with A K Khan and Company, a

    Bangladesh based business house, to set up a bias tyre manufacturing facility in

    Bangladesh. The plant is expected to manufacture bias tyres in truck, light

    commercial vehicle, and two-wheeler segments for the local Bangladesh market.

    The JV which would entail an investment of US$67mn (`355cr) towards the new

    plant is expected to commence operations by the end of 2014. The plant is

    expected to have an installed capacity of 110MT/day and is likely to be completed

    in phases. As per the agreement, while Ceat will hold 70% in the JV Company,

    balance 30% will be held by A K Khan and Company. Further, Ceat will also

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/Ministry-of-Defencehttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/reliance-industries-ltd/stocks/companyid-13215.cmshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/reliance-industries-ltd/stocks/companyid-13215.cmshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/Ministry-of-Defence
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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

    provide technology and operational support to the JV Company. Around`40-

    `50cr of Ceats planned capital expenditure towards the new plant will be incurred

    in FY2013E and the remaining will be incurred in FY2014E. The announcement by

    the company is on the expected lines as it had already announced its intentions of

    setting up a manufacturing facility in Bangladesh. At`105, the stock is trading at

    attractive valuations of 2.6x FY2014E earnings.

    3QFY2013 Result Review

    (CMP:`1,600/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

    Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported strong set of results for 3QFY2013. While the

    top-line (up 35% qoq) was broadly in-line with our estimates; bottom-line was

    slightly ahead despite higher tax rate (at 26% as against 19% in 2QFY2013),

    driven by EBITDA margin expansion (up 183bp sequentially to 8%).

    For 3QFY2013, net sales grew by a robust 44.9% yoy (22.9% qoq) to

    `11,200cr which was in-line with our estimates, driven by 25.9% yoy (30.9%

    qoq) and 15.7% yoy (3.8% qoq) growth in volumes and net average

    realization respectively. While volume growth came on the back of the low

    base (volumes in 3QFY2012 and 2QFY2013 were impacted due to labor

    strike); net average realization improved on account of superior product-mix

    (higher share of Swift, Dzire and Ertiga and higher proportion of diesel

    vehicles in the volume-mix), lower discounts (at `12,100/ unit vs. `14,700/

    unit in 2QFY2013 and price hikes. The share of diesel vehicle stood at ~40%

    in 3QFY2013 as against ~33% in 2QFY2013. On the operating front,margins improved 183bp sequentially to 8% primarily due to favorable

    product-mix, operating leverage benefits and favorable currency movement.

    The royalty expense for the quarter stood at 5.6% as against 6% in

    3QFY2012. Led by strong operating performance base effect, net profit

    surged 143.8% yoy (120.4% qoq) to`501cr, slightly ahead of our estimates of

    `474cr.

    Going ahead, we expect the operating performance of MSIL to improve further

    led by price increases carried out in January 2013 and favorable currency

    movement. Further, the company has indicated that the benefits of Yen

    depreciation will materialize from 1QFY2014 which should support margin

    expansion. However, at the CMP of `1,600, the stock is trading at rich

    valuations of 16.7x FY2014E earnings.

    FY2013E 42,304 7.5 1,860 64.4 11.6 24.9 2.8 12.1 0.8

    FY2014E 51,088 8.9 2,764 95.6 15.3 16.7 2.4 8.0 0.6

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

    Persistent (CMP:`559 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)

    Persistent Systems (Persistent) reported its 3QFY2013 results which came in line

    with our expectations on the revenue front but disappointed on operating margin

    front. The dollar revenues came in at US$60.8mn, up 1.2% qoq, led by 2.1% qoq

    revenue growth from IT services revenue which came in at US$49.7mn. Thecompanys EBITDA margin declined considerable by ~250bp qoq to 24.8% which

    was a negative surprise. PAT stood at`50cr, up 10.9% qoq aided by forex gain of

    `1.8cr as against loss of `4.1cr n 2QFY2013. We await further clarity from

    management regarding decline seen in operating margins and keep stock under

    review.

    FY2013E 1,277 26.8 192 48.0 19.0 11.6 2.2 5.3 1.4

    FY2014E 1,398 25.2 216 53.9 17.9 10.4 1.9 4.8 1.2

    Sarda Energy and Minerals (CMP:`128, TP:`153, Upside: 20%)

    Sarda Energy and Minerals (SEML) reported healthy 3QFY2013 numbers. The net

    sales grew by 29.9% yoy to `370cr mainly driven by healthy performance from

    steel business (+52.5% yoy to`275cr). The EBITDA growth was however subdued

    at 10.7% yoy to `71cr due to higher raw material costs and other expenses.

    Interest costs increased by 23.4% yoy to `18cr while other income declined by

    59.4% yoy to`4cr. As a result, the net profit of the company declined 3.3% yoy to

    `27cr. `

    FY13E 1,442 17.6 98 27.2 11.5 4.7 0.5 3.8 0.7

    FY14E 1,494 17.2 103 28.7 11.0 4.5 0.5 3.6 0.6

    3QFY2013 Result Preview

    (CMP:`364/ TP: - / Upside: -)

    Bank of India is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the

    bank to report NII growth of 8.9% yoy to `2,253cr. Non-interest income is

    expected to register growth of 9.8% yoy to`936cr. Operating expenses are

    expected to be higher by 15.7% yoy, while provisioning expenses are expected to

    increase by 54.6% yoy to`1,072cr. Net profit is expected to decline by 22.2% yoy

    to `557cr. At CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 0.9x FY2014E P/ABV.

    Currently, The banks

    management has changed recently and we would have a relook at our

    rating/outlook on the stock, post the results.

    FY2013E 12,568 2.2 2,391 41.6 332.7 0.6 11.6 8.8 1.1

    FY2014E 14,758 2.4 3,680 64.0 391.2 0.8 15.9 5.7 0.9

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

    JSW Steel is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect itsstandalone net sales to grow by 8.5% yoy to `8,531cr mainly on account ofincreased sales volumes as well as realizations and operating margin isexpected to expand by 162bp yoy to 17.3% mainly on account of lower rawmaterial costs. However net profit is expected to decrease by 32.5% yoy to`451cr mainly because of higher tax expenses and interest costs in thisquarter.

    FY13E 39,586 17.6 1,755 78.6 10.2 11.0 1.1 5.1 0.9

    FY14E 41,594 19.9 2,843 127.4 14.8 6.8 0.9 4.3 0.8

    KPIT (CMP:`

    112 / TP:`

    130 / Upside: 16%)KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results

    today. We expect the company to post revenue of US$105mn, up 1.0%. In INR

    terms, the revenue is expected to come in at `565cr, almost flat qoq. EBITDA

    margin is expected to increase by 55bp qoq to 17.2. PAT is expected to come in at

    `57cr.

    FY2013E 2,221 16.1 199 11.3 21.9 10.0 2.2 5.5 0.9

    FY2014E 2,390 15.9 240 13.0 20.9 8.6 1.8 4.8 0.8

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    Net sales 1,891 1,059 79 1,433 32

    EBITDA 445 212 110 150 196

    EBITDA margin (%) 23.5 20.0 10.5

    Net profit (133) (358) (63) (225) (41)

    Net sales 778 655 19 698 12

    EBITDA 548 481 14 552 (1)

    EBITDA margin (%) 70.4 73.4 79.1

    Net profit 375 311 21 430 (13)

    Net profit 762 716 6 302 152

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

    Net sales 8,772 8,405 4 9,475 (7)

    EBITDA 1,396 1,317 6 1,531 (9)

    EBITDA margin (%) 15.9 15.7 16.2

    Net profit 239 (55) (534) 678 (65)

    Net sales 3,908 4,476 (13) 3,488 12

    EBITDA 486 652 (26) 454 7

    EBITDA margin (%) 12.4 14.6 13.0

    Net profit 337 416 (19) 414 (19)

    Net sales 3,226 3,028 7 2,924 10

    EBITDA 161 183 (12) 136 18

    EBITDA margin (%) 5.0 6.0 4.7

    Net profit 68 77 (12) 42 62

    Net sales 1,711 1,453 18 1,523 12

    EBITDA 282 232 21 269 5

    EBITDA margin (%) 16.5 16.0 17.7

    Net profit 210 172 22 204 3

    Net sales 1,260 1,031 22 1,255 0

    EBITDA 270 103 163 271 (0)

    EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 10.0 21.6

    Net profit 171 46 272 160 7

    Net sales 5,523 5,020 10 5,307 4

    EBITDA 1,499 1,345 11 1,423 5

    EBITDA margin (%) 27.1 26.8 26.8

    Net profit 269 201 34 240 12

    Net sales 11,065 10,246 8 11,029 0

    EBITDA 2,532 2,318 9 2,527 0

    EBITDA margin (%) 22.9 22.6 22.9

    Net profit 1,399 1,380 1 2,322 (40)

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

    Net sales 2,082 1,872 11 1,802 16

    EBITDA 363 348 4 326 11

    EBITDA margin (%) 17.4 18.6 18.1

    Net profit 142 122 17 139 2

    Net sales 796 670 19 774 3

    EBITDA 167 149 12 176 (5)

    EBITDA margin (%) 21.0 22.3 22.7

    Net profit 137 116 18 145 (6)

    Net profit 1,040 1,108 (6) 1,036 0

    Net sales 2,888 2,440 18 2,258 28

    EBITDA 286 213 34 249 15

    EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 8.7 11.0

    Net profit 206 164 26 180 14

    Economic and Political News

    RBI hikes FII limit in govt. securities and corporate bond by US$5bn each Railways eyes`6,000cr from non-core business PE, venture capital investments slump to US $7.6bn in 2012: E&YCorporate News

    Diageo-United Spirits deal clearance work in progress: CCI Ashok Leyland to dilute stake in subsidiaries Maruti told to pay`138cr more in Manesar land case Maruti Suzuki buys land for 4th plantSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    January 28, 2013 Mundra Port, Bank of India, Adani Power, JSW Steel , Reliance Infra., Amara Raja Batteries, KPIT Cummins

    January 29, 2013Sterlite Inds, Idea Cellular, Dabur India, Crompton Greaves, Reliance Capital, Glenmark Pharma., United Phosphorus,Areva, Indoco Remedies

    January 30, 2013 Titan Inds., Power Fin.Corpn., Nalco, Colgate, Central Bank, IOB, Ipca labs, Dena Bank, Jyoti Structures, PVR

    January 31, 2013 ICICI Bank, Punjab Natl.Bank, Siemens, Grasim Inds, Lupin, Union Bank, Godrej Consumer, Cummins India,Mahindra Satyam, Allahabad Bank, Tata Global, Thermax, Jagran Prakashan

    February 01, 2013 Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Adani Enterp., IDFC, Marico, Corporation Bank, TVS Motor, Hind. Const., Graphite India

    February 02, 2013 Divi's Lab., Indian Bank

    February 03, 2013

    February 04, 2013 J & K Bank, Bank of Baroda, Rural Elec.Corp., United Spirits, ITNL, Taj GVK

    February 05, 2013 NHPC, UCO Bank, United Bank

    February 06, 2013 MOIL, Apollo Tyres, Automotive Axle, J K Lakshmi Cements, Honeywell Automation

    February 07, 2013 Ambuja Cements, ACC, Aurobindo Pharma, Anant Raj, CEAT, MRF, Jyothy Laboratories

    February 08, 2013M&M, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra., Tata Chemicals, GSPL, BGR Energy , Nagarjuna Const.,Subros, Cravatex

    February 09, 2013

    February 10, 2013

    February 11, 2013 ONGC, Tata Power Co., Britannia, Hexaware, GIPCL, Dishman Pharma

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    January 29, 2013 8:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jan 65.10 64.00

    11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jan 29 8.00 7.75

    11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jan 29 4.25 4.25

    11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jan 29 7.00 6.75

    January 30, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jan F (23.90) (23.90)

    7:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 4Q A 3.10 1.20

    January 31, 2013 7:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jan 26 330.00 350.00

    2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jan 3.00 8.00

    12:45AM US FOMC rate decision % Jan 30 0.25 0.25

    February 1, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jan F 48.80 48.80

    7:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jan 155.00 160.00

    7:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jan 7.80 7.80

    3:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jan 51.40 51.00

    6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jan 50.60 51.00February 5, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Jan F 55.30 --

    February 7, 2013 5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Feb 7 0.50 0.50

    6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Feb 7 0.75 --

    3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Dec (2.40) --

    February 8, 2013 5:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jan 14.10 --

    11:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jan 2.50 --

    February 11, 2013 5:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jan 6.30 --

    5:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jan (1.90) --

    February 12, 2013 3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jan 2.70 --

    11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Dec (0.10) --

    February 14, 2013 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Jan 7.18 --

    12:30PM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 4Q P 0.40 --

    3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 4Q A (0.10) --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    January 28, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:

    Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit 5:

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    3.5

    5.7

    9.0

    7.5

    11.2

    8.5

    7.68.2

    9.2

    8.0

    6.76.1

    5.3 5.5 5.3

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    (%)

    2.7

    1.0

    4.3

    (2.8) (1.3)

    2.5

    (2.0) (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.3

    (0.1)(4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc

    t-12

    Nov-1

    2

    (%)

    7.7

    6.9

    7.4

    7.7

    7.5 7.67.6 7.5

    8.0 8.1

    7.5

    7.2

    6.26.4

    6.6

    6.8

    7.0

    7.2

    7.4

    7.6

    7.8

    8.0

    8.2

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Feb-1

    2

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oct-12

    Nov-1

    2

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Feb-1

    2

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oct-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (30.0)

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    30.0

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc

    t-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    8.00

    7.00

    4.25

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc

    t-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 138 - 2,679 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 19.7 17.0 4.2 3.6 22.6 22.5 1.9 1.6

    United Phosphorus Buy 138 170 6,104 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 9.2 8.1 1.3 1.2 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 298 - 5,095 2,911 3,321 16.2 16.2 17.3 19.8 17.2 15.0 4.7 3.7 31.1 27.6 1.7 1.4

    Apollo Tyres Accumulate 84 96 4,236 13,713 15,341 11.2 11.2 12.5 14.8 6.7 5.7 1.3 1.0 20.2 19.9 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Accumulate 25 28 6,652 12,910 14,836 8.8 9.6 1.5 2.2 16.9 11.2 2.2 2.0 9.3 13.4 0.6 0.5

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 370 - 559 1,103 1,240 11.0 11.3 39.1 45.0 9.5 8.2 1.7 1.7 19.5 22.8 0.6 0.4Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,079 - 60,165 20,775 23,889 18.5 19.0 107.6 126.4 19.3 16.5 8.0 6.3 45.8 42.8 2.5 2.1

    Bharat Forge Buy 233 278 5,433 6,754 7,565 15.5 15.7 18.8 23.2 12.5 10.1 2.2 1.8 18.5 19.7 1.0 0.8

    Bosch India* Accumulate 9,097 9,570 28,565 9,973 11,320 17.8 18.0 396.2 455.7 23.0 20.0 4.3 3.6 18.8 18.2 2.5 2.1

    CEAT Buy 105 163 361 4,989 5,634 8.2 8.5 27.1 40.8 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.4 13.2 17.2 0.3 0.2

    Exide Industries Neutral 121 - 10,298 6,112 7,074 13.1 14.9 6.1 8.2 19.8 14.8 3.0 2.6 16.0 18.8 1.4 1.1

    FAG Bearings* Accumulate 1,677 1,807 2,786 1,715 1,939 17.6 18.4 127.7 150.6 13.1 11.1 2.6 2.1 21.7 21.1 1.4 1.1

    Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,764 1,923 35,229 23,990 27,038 13.8 14.6 105.8 120.2 16.7 14.7 6.7 5.4 44.3 41.0 1.2 1.0

    JK Tyre Buy 116 165 476 7,517 8,329 6.6 6.6 37.2 41.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.5 18.8 17.8 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and MahindraAccumulate 900 998 55,234 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.4 62.1 16.5 14.5 3.7 3.1 24.2 23.2 1.2 1.0

    Maruti Neutral 1,600 - 46,231 42,304 51,088 7.5 8.7 64.4 92.9 24.9 17.2 2.8 2.4 11.6 14.9 0.9 0.7

    Motherson Sumi Neutral 198 - 11,619 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 24.6 18.7 5.2 4.2 22.9 24.7 0.6 0.6

    Subros Buy 27 35 159 1,286 1,479 9.4 9.7 2.6 5.1 10.2 5.3 0.6 0.5 5.6 10.3 0.4 0.4

    Tata Motors Accumulate 301 337 80,237 190,883 217,164 12.8 13.1 35.5 42.5 8.5 7.1 2.2 1.8 30.2 27.6 0.5 0.4

    TVS Motor Accumulate 43 46 2,045 7,298 8,123 6.1 6.4 4.6 5.8 9.5 7.4 1.6 1.3 17.4 19.4 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Reduce 674 573 14,279 7,790 9,653 4.5 7.8 8.7 22.1 77.5 30.5 5.4 4.7 7.1 16.5 1.8 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 248 - 1,791 3,567 4,357 11.8 10.9 24.6 26.8 10.1 9.3 1.5 1.3 30.7 26.3 0.9 0.8

    BHEL Neutral 230 - 56,172 47,801 43,757 18.5 18.0 24.6 21.8 9.3 10.5 2.8 2.4 33.5 24.5 1.0 1.2

    Blue Star Buy 168 224 1,515 2,538 2,681 4.6 5.7 7.3 11.3 22.9 14.9 3.4 2.9 15.6 20.7 0.7 0.6

    Crompton Greaves Buy 110 135 7,085 12,320 14,390 5.5 7.2 4.3 7.8 25.7 14.2 1.9 1.7 7.4 12.6 0.6 0.5

    Jyoti Structures Buy 42 51 342 2,794 3,048 10.6 10.6 9.2 11.7 4.5 3.6 0.5 0.4 11.9 13.5 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 64 78 1,647 6,909 7,907 6.2 7.2 5.4 8.8 11.9 7.3 1.4 1.2 17.0 23.6 0.4 0.4

    LMW Reduce 2,223 1,992 2,504 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 15.5 13.4 2.6 2.4 17.4 18.4 0.6 0.4

    Thermax Neutral 583 - 6,941 5,552 5,767 9.3 10.2 28.3 30.9 20.6 18.9 3.7 3.2 19.3 18.4 1.1 1.0

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    January 28, 2013

  • 7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 28th January 2013

    11/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Cement

    ACC Neutral 1,331 - 24,984 11,012 12,333 21.1 20.9 77.0 80.3 17.3 16.6 3.3 3.0 19.5 18.7 2.0 1.7

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 199 - 30,651 10,210 11,811 26.0 25.7 11.2 12.6 17.8 15.8 3.8 3.4 20.3 20.7 2.6 2.1

    India Cements Neutral 88 - 2,697 4,293 4,666 17.7 18.1 8.6 10.8 10.2 8.2 0.8 0.7 7.5 9.0 1.0 0.9

    J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 146 - 1,782 2,171 2,544 22.5 22.5 21.6 23.2 6.7 6.3 1.2 1.0 19.0 17.8 0.9 1.2

    Madras Cements Neutral 235 - 5,590 3,814 4,045 28.8 27.1 18.3 18.7 12.9 12.6 2.3 2.0 19.4 17.0 2.1 1.9

    Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,456 - 15,525 5,678 6,251 29.0 28.6 288.1 334.0 15.5 13.3 4.3 3.4 31.7 28.4 2.2 1.8

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,918 - 52,593 20,466 23,017 23.3 24.3 100.0 117.1 19.2 16.4 3.5 3.0 19.6 19.5 2.5 2.3Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Buy 200 286 1,053 2,032 2,311 22.4 22.4 27.0 31.6 7.4 6.3 0.9 0.8 13.0 13.4 1.9 2.2

    Consolidated Co Neutral 16 - 297 2,262 2,522 5.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 17.6 10.4 0.5 0.5 2.7 4.6 0.4 0.4

    IRB Infra Buy 117 164 3,902 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.0 6.6 1.2 1.1 18.3 17.0 3.1 3.4

    ITNL Accumulate 203 225 3,938 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.7 7.0 1.2 1.1 17.0 16.3 2.7 2.8

    IVRCL Infra Neutral 35 - 1,066 4,249 6,897 7.8 8.2 0.3 3.4 112.7 10.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 4.4 0.8 0.5

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 87 100 18,704 13,842 15,863 26.9 26.4 3.7 4.6 23.7 19.0 1.4 1.3 6.2 7.3 2.8 2.5

    Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,607 1,788 98,837 60,666 69,525 10.6 11.2 71.9 85.0 22.4 18.9 3.5 3.1 14.5 15.2 1.8 1.6

    Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 53 - 1,355 5,947 6,569 8.5 8.6 3.1 4.1 17.0 12.8 0.6 0.5 3.3 4.2 0.6 0.6

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 51 - 1,697 11,892 13,116 9.0 9.0 1.8 3.2 28.2 15.9 0.6 0.6 2.0 3.5 0.6 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 125 168 1,887 2,344 2,804 10.6 10.7 7.2 8.7 17.4 14.4 2.1 1.8 13.0 13.5 1.2 1.0

    Simplex Infra Buy 187 251 926 6,882 8,032 9.1 9.1 23.2 31.3 8.1 6.0 0.7 0.6 9.1 11.2 0.5 0.4

    Unity Infra Buy 40 59 297 2,180 2,455 13.7 13.4 13.3 15.0 3.0 2.7 0.4 0.3 12.5 12.5 0.5 0.5

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Buy 173 199 8,633 6,403 7,186 2.7 2.8 30.5 33.6 5.7 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.6 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 116 - 6,502 4,706 5,444 2.9 3.0 21.4 22.4 5.4 5.2 0.9 0.8 15.1 14.2 - -Axis Bank Buy 1,384 1,641 59,123 15,959 18,660 3.2 3.2 119.2 139.0 11.6 10.0 2.2 1.9 20.3 20.1 - -

    Bank of Baroda Neutral 881 - 36,208 15,284 18,032 2.5 2.6 109.6 137.7 8.0 6.4 1.2 1.0 15.5 17.1 - -

    Bank of India Neutral 364 - 20,909 12,568 14,758 2.2 2.4 41.6 64.1 8.8 5.7 1.1 0.9 11.6 16.0 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 59 - 3,484 3,720 4,268 2.9 2.8 10.9 13.0 5.4 4.6 0.8 0.7 16.2 16.9 - -

    Canara Bank Accumulate 491 516 21,731 10,828 12,005 2.1 2.2 64.7 80.4 7.6 6.1 1.0 0.9 13.2 14.7 - -

    Central Bank Neutral 84 - 6,154 7,252 8,236 2.5 2.6 16.8 21.4 5.0 3.9 0.9 0.7 13.1 14.8 - -

    Corporation Bank Buy 455 534 6,734 4,835 5,570 2.0 2.2 105.0 99.8 4.3 4.6 0.8 0.7 17.5 14.8 - -

    Dena Bank Accumulate 115 124 4,026 3,125 3,457 2.7 2.8 26.2 24.2 4.4 4.8 0.8 0.7 19.6 15.6 - -

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    January 28, 2013

  • 7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 28th January 2013

    12/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Financials

    Federal Bank Accumulate 506 557 8,655 2,667 2,920 3.2 3.2 49.1 51.4 10.3 9.9 1.4 1.2 13.9 13.1 - -

    HDFC Neutral 805 - 124,136 7,446 8,923 3.5 3.5 32.2 38.5 25.0 20.9 5.1 4.5 35.4 32.6 - -

    HDFC Bank Neutral 665 - 157,358 21,724 26,578 4.3 4.3 28.7 36.1 23.2 18.4 4.4 3.7 20.7 22.1 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,173 1,397 134,851 22,219 26,447 2.9 3.0 69.1 82.9 17.0 14.2 2.1 1.9 14.2 15.6 - -

    IDBI Bank Accumulate 108 122 13,807 8,196 9,305 1.9 2.1 15.4 22.3 7.0 4.8 0.8 0.7 10.7 14.1 - -

    Indian Bank Buy 201 252 8,656 5,902 6,563 3.2 3.2 41.3 43.2 4.9 4.7 0.8 0.7 18.4 16.8 - -

    IOB Accumulate 83 90 6,647 7,063 8,308 2.3 2.5 12.6 20.4 6.6 4.1 0.6 0.6 9.0 13.3 - -J & K Bank Neutral 1,281 - 6,211 2,830 2,910 3.6 3.6 234.8 197.4 5.5 6.5 1.3 1.1 25.1 18.0 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Buy 282 328 14,254 1,799 2,255 2.3 2.4 20.3 27.3 13.9 10.4 2.2 1.9 16.9 19.7 - -

    Oriental Bank Neutral 331 - 9,643 6,330 7,105 2.6 2.7 58.4 65.1 5.7 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.5 14.4 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 873 933 2 9,624 19,688 22,497 3.2 3.3 138.9 164.5 6.3 5.3 1.1 0.9 16.7 17.3 - -

    South Ind.Bank Buy 28 34 3,681 1,583 1,789 3.0 2.9 3.5 4.1 7.9 6.8 1.3 1.2 19.1 17.7 - -

    St Bk of India Neutral 2,513 - 168,650 60,677 69,712 3.3 3.3 224.3 257.3 11.2 9.8 1.9 1.6 17.6 17.7 - -

    Syndicate Bank Buy 135 159 8,126 6,673 7,644 2.9 3.0 30.0 27.1 4.5 5.0 0.9 0.8 20.7 16.2 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 78 - 5,188 5,235 6,086 2.3 2.4 12.0 14.9 6.5 5.2 1.1 0.9 12.0 13.5 - -

    Union Bank Accumulate 254 271 13,962 9,963 11,536 2.8 2.9 40.8 46.8 6.2 5.4 1.0 0.9 16.2 16.4 - -

    United Bank Buy 75 87 2,700 3,498 3,858 2.5 2.8 15.1 21.6 5.0 3.5 0.6 0.5 12.5 16.1 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 60 - 2,988 2,333 2,728 2.0 2.2 7.3 10.4 8.3 5.8 0.8 0.7 9.3 12.1 - -

    Yes Bank Accumulate 504 576 18,023 3,364 4,260 2.8 3.0 36.3 42.6 13.9 11.8 3.1 2.5 24.6 23.6 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 4,407 - 42,275 11,198 13,319 15.9 15.7 122.1 147.1 36.1 30.0 12.2 9.5 37.7 35.7 3.7 3.1

    Britannia Buy 484 584 5,789 5,627 6,581 4.9 5.7 18.3 24.7 26.5 19.6 9.7 7.4 39.1 42.7 0.9 0.8

    Colgate Neutral 1,408 - 19,153 3,146 3,573 20.6 21.4 36.4 42.5 38.7 33.1 35.8 30.0 102.0 98.5 5.9 5.2

    Dabur India Neutral 129 - 22,423 6,124 7,101 17.0 16.8 4.7 5.4 27.7 23.8 11.7 9.1 44.5 41.5 3.7 3.1

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,767 - 15,841 3,084 3,617 15.3 15.5 101.2 118.3 37.2 31.9 11.3 9.2 33.5 31.9 4.8 4.0

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 723 - 24,606 6,355 7,548 16.7 17.4 20.3 25.4 35.6 28.4 7.5 6.2 23.2 25.1 4.1 3.4

    HUL Neutral 475 - 102,726 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 15.1 17.0 31.5 28.0 25.0 17.8 85.7 74.3 3.9 3.3

    ITC Neutral 299 - 236,028 29,148 34,191 35.7 36.1 9.4 11.1 32.0 27.0 10.6 8.8 35.9 35.7 7.8 6.6

    Marico Neutral 217 - 14,013 4,840 5,643 13.6 13.6 6.4 8.1 33.8 26.8 6.7 5.4 26.3 23.3 3.0 2.4

    Nestle* Neutral 4,645 - 44,787 8,487 10,081 21.2 22.1 113.0 142.5 41.1 32.6 24.7 17.0 70.5 61.6 5.3 4.4

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    January 28, 2013

  • 7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 28th January 2013

    13/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    FMCG

    Tata Global Neutral 148 - 9,152 7,207 7,927 9.1 9.5 6.9 8.2 21.4 18.1 2.3 2.2 8.9 9.8 1.2 1.1

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Accumulate 680 725 47,244 24,453 27,269 19.8 18.7 45.0 50.0 15.1 13.6 3.6 3.0 24.4 22.6 1.9 1.6

    Hexaware* Buy 81 118 2,396 1,941 2,118 20.8 19.0 10.7 10.7 7.6 7.6 1.9 1.6 25.3 22.0 1.0 0.8

    Infosys Neutral 2,815 - 161,627 40,746 44,283 28.9 28.8 162.6 172.9 17.3 16.3 4.1 3.5 23.5 21.3 3.4 3.0

    Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 172 191 1,921 1,900 2,064 18.2 17.8 19.1 21.2 9.0 8.1 1.4 1.2 15.2 14.6 0.7 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Buy 112 130 2,160 2,221 2,390 16.1 15.9 11.3 13.0 10.0 8.6 2.2 1.8 21.9 20.9 1.0 0.8Mahindra Satyam Neutral 121 - 14,201 7,670 8,308 20.3 19.3 9.9 10.8 12.2 11.1 3.4 2.6 28.0 23.5 1.5 1.3

    Mindtree Neutral 781 - 3,233 2,339 2,502 20.9 18.4 75.4 78.1 10.4 10.0 2.5 2.0 24.6 20.3 1.1 1.0

    Mphasis& Accumulate 370 396 7,768 5,531 5,874 17.6 17.5 35.4 37.7 10.4 9.8 1.5 1.3 14.7 13.5 0.9 0.7

    NIIT Buy 27 36 447 1,048 1,161 9.1 10.9 4.1 6.2 6.6 4.4 0.7 0.6 10.3 14.1 0.3 0.2

    Persistent Neutral 562 - 2,248 1,277 1,398 26.8 25.2 48.0 53.9 11.7 10.4 2.2 1.9 19.0 17.9 1.4 1.2

    TCS Accumulate 1,338 1,465 261,837 62,954 70,871 29.0 28.9 71.6 79.1 18.7 16.9 6.2 5.0 33.2 29.7 3.9 3.4

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,006 1,087 12,858 6,671 7,290 19.8 19.0 94.1 106.4 10.7 9.5 2.6 2.0 24.0 21.6 2.0 1.7

    Wipro Neutral 408 - 100,398 43,231 47,241 20.0 20.0 26.2 28.1 15.6 14.5 3.0 2.6 19.3 17.9 2.0 1.7

    Media

    D B Corp Accumulate 239 264 4,376 1,581 1,784 23.3 25.0 11.6 14.4 20.6 16.5 4.0 3.4 21.0 22.3 2.7 2.3

    HT Media Accumulate 106 121 2,491 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 14.4 12.8 1.6 1.4 11.3 11.4 0.8 0.7

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 109 126 3,433 1,503 1,681 23.1 23.1 6.4 7.3 17.0 14.9 4.2 3.8 25.8 26.5 2.5 2.1

    PVR Neutral 269 - 779 682 786 17.3 16.9 17.6 19.7 15.3 13.7 1.8 1.6 14.9 14.5 1.5 1.2

    Sun TV Network Neutral 444 - 17,507 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 25.2 23.3 6.1 5.5 25.8 25.2 8.5 7.3

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 440 - 9,969 10,746 13,982 30.8 31.1 43.3 55.5 10.2 7.9 1.1 0.9 11.4 12.6 3.0 2.3Coal India Accumulate 341 368 215,514 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 14.1 12.8 4.2 3.4 33.1 29.1 2.3 2.0

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 24 34 846 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 1.8 2.6 13.9 9.4 0.5 0.2 3.6 5.1 0.6 0.5

    Hind. Zinc Buy 129 149 54,401 12,002 13,759 49.7 50.8 14.7 16.4 8.8 7.9 1.7 1.4 21.1 19.8 2.6 1.9

    Hindalco Neutral 116 - 22,286 79,148 89,258 9.4 9.0 15.0 15.6 7.8 7.5 0.7 0.6 8.8 8.4 0.7 0.6

    JSW Steel Neutral 864 - 19,271 39,586 41,459 17.6 17.0 78.7 90.1 11.0 9.6 1.1 1.0 10.2 10.7 0.9 0.9

    MOIL Neutral 254 - 4,261 941 1,019 47.3 48.3 25.8 28.1 9.8 9.0 1.5 1.4 16.7 16.2 2.2 1.8

    Monnet Ispat Buy 266 344 1,697 2,501 3,264 22.2 24.6 41.8 55.2 6.4 4.8 0.7 0.6 11.3 13.4 1.8 1.3

    Nalco Reduce 47 44 12,113 6,898 7,841 9.9 14.7 2.0 3.2 23.7 14.8 1.0 1.0 4.3 6.8 1.3 1.2

    NMDC Buy 160 198 63,554 11,209 12,525 78.4 78.3 18.5 20.6 8.7 7.8 2.1 1.8 27.0 24.6 3.7 3.1

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    January 28, 2013

  • 7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 28th January 2013

    14/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Metals & Mining

    SAIL Neutral 89 - 36,844 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 9.3 7.6 0.8 0.8 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

    Sesa Goa Neutral 183 - 15,922 2,412 3,911 30.8 33.1 29.6 31.8 6.2 5.8 1.0 0.8 16.3 15.4 8.1 5.0

    Sterlite Inds Neutral 112 - 37,723 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 6.7 6.3 0.7 0.7 11.6 11.2 0.9 0.8

    Tata Steel Accumulate 407 463 39,485 145,725 154,108 8.3 9.5 22.0 44.5 18.5 9.1 0.9 0.8 4.9 9.3 0.6 0.5

    Sarda Buy 127 153 454 1,442 1,494 17.6 17.3 27.2 28.7 4.7 4.4 0.5 0.5 11.5 11.0 0.7 0.6

    Prakash Industries Buy 48 73 639 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3

    Godawari Power andIspat Buy 112 143 354 2,342 2,470 13.7 15.3 27.7 33.8 4.0 3.3 0.4 0.3 10.9 11.4 0.6 0.5

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Buy 323 383 61,779 17,394 17,034 76.4 72.3 60.8 55.1 5.3 5.9 1.1 0.9 21.9 17.0 2.7 2.4

    GAIL Neutral 353 - 44,822 46,652 54,142 15.7 15.7 34.0 35.3 10.4 10.0 1.8 1.6 18.5 16.8 0.7 0.5

    ONGC Reduce 341 312 291,742 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 11.1 10.6 1.9 1.7 18.3 17.2 1.7 1.6

    Reliance Industries Neutral 912 - 298,606 362,700 380,031 8.9 8.9 68.1 71.5 13.4 12.8 1.4 1.3 12.4 11.8 0.8 0.7

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 311 - 3,982 3,128 3,707 13.2 11.7 22.8 23.5 13.6 13.2 4.1 3.6 33.2 29.2 1.2 0.9

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 261 - 3,653 3,213 3,643 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.7 10.7 10.1 2.5 2.1 25.0 22.1 1.2 1.1

    Petronet LNG Buy 154 179 11,576 32,210 41,362 6.1 5.8 15.4 15.6 10.0 9.9 2.6 2.2 29.1 24.1 0.4 0.3

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Neutral 74 - 4,184 1,079 1,034 91.8 91.9 8.8 8.4 8.5 8.9 1.4 1.3 17.9 15.0 3.6 3.7

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Buy 71 95 1,338 1,490 1,714 16.2 17.1 7.4 9.5 9.6 7.5 2.6 2.0 30.7 30.2 1.0 0.8

    Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate 187 208 5,454 5,463 6,279 15.0 15.0 12.4 14.0 15.1 13.4 2.0 1.7 18.8 17.8 1.6 1.4

    Aventis* Neutral 2,232 - 5,139 1,482 1,682 17.5 16.6 82.9 87.8 26.9 25.4 4.2 3.4 16.3 14.8 3.3 2.8

    Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 868 926 17,762 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 32.7 44.8 26.5 19.4 5.8 4.7 23.7 26.6 3.3 2.7

    Cipla Accumulate 398 419 31,968 8,151 9,130 25.8 24.8 20.2 21.6 19.7 18.4 3.5 3.0 19.4 17.6 3.7 3.2

    Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,943 - 32,977 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 23.2 20.9 4.8 4.0 22.4 20.8 3.4 3.0

    Dishman Pharma Buy 104 145 843 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 10.4 14.5 10.0 7.2 0.8 0.8 8.7 11.0 1.3 1.1

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,066 - 17,497 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.2 25.1 7.9 7.0 20.1 26.3 5.8 5.0

    Indoco Remedies Buy 63 89 581 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 8.5 7.1 1.3 1.1 16.4 17.0 1.0 0.8

    Ipca labs Neutral 501 - 6,321 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 16.8 13.4 4.0 3.2 26.7 26.4 2.4 2.0

    Lupin Accumulate 600 655 26,826 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.1 31.1 23.0 19.3 5.3 4.3 25.8 24.7 3.3 2.7

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 456 - 19,289 12,046 11,980 16.0 15.8 37.3 32.1 12.2 14.2 4.7 3.8 45.3 29.7 1.6 1.6

    Sun Pharma Neutral 726 - 75,083 9,902 12,313 42.6 42.6 26.7 29.1 27.2 25.0 5.2 4.4 20.7 19.1 6.9 5.4

    Power

    GIPCL Accumulate 71 78 1,067 1,523 1,568 30.3 30.3 5.4 11.5 13.1 6.1 0.7 0.7 5.6 11.3 1.2 1.0

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Power

    NTPC Neutral 159 - 131,350 72,809 81,951 23.0 23.7 12.0 13.4 13.3 11.9 1.6 1.5 12.5 12.9 2.4 2.3

    Real Estate

    Anant Raj Neutral 83 - 2,439 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 9.8 6.5 0.6 0.6 6.3 8.9 5.0 3.7

    DLF Neutral 260 - 44,131 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 27.1 19.4 1.7 1.6 6.4 8.7 7.0 5.7

    HDIL Buy 83 115 3,457 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.6 3.1 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.3 2.5

    MLIFE Accumulate 407 446 1,661 786 888 26.3 26.7 31.0 36.3 13.1 11.2 1.3 1.2 10.1 10.8 2.4 2.1

    TelecomBharti Airtel Neutral 360 - 136,559 80,353 86,654 30.9 31.3 8.6 11.8 42.0 30.5 2.6 2.4 6.1 7.8 2.5 2.2

    Idea Cellular Neutral 113 - 37,557 21,797 23,142 26.9 27.7 3.1 4.7 36.1 24.3 2.7 2.4 7.4 9.8 2.2 2.0

    Rcom Neutral 86 - 17,771 21,032 22,084 31.8 30.2 2.9 4.0 29.4 21.6 0.5 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.3

    zOthers

    Abbott India Accumulate 1,440 1,590 3,059 1,629 1,886 11.8 13.3 60.8 79.5 23.7 18.1 4.9 4.1 22.0 24.4 1.7 1.4

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 186 217 1,857 3,497 3,968 6.6 7.6 9.8 15.5 19.0 12.0 2.4 2.1 12.7 17.4 0.5 0.5

    Cera Sanitaryware Buy 422 495 534 460 596 16.4 16.2 34.7 45.0 12.2 9.4 3.0 2.3 27.7 27.8 1.2 1.0

    Cravatex Buy 400 545 103 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 10.7 8.8 2.5 2.0 23.7 22.7 0.5 0.4

    CRISIL Neutral 1,007 - 7,072 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 29.3 25.2 13.3 10.6 50.9 46.9 6.8 5.7

    Finolex Cables Accumulate 55 61 845 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 6.8 5.5 0.9 0.8 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.3

    Force Motors Buy 445 537 579 2,318 2,700 5.0 5.7 45.0 67.0 9.9 6.6 0.5 0.5 5.0 7.0 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India Accumulate 316 360 728 1,494 1,607 6.4 7.8 23.9 33.0 13.2 9.6 2.1 1.8 16.5 20.1 0.3 0.2

    Greenply Industries Sell 432 309 1,043 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 14.6 9.8 2.4 1.9 16.8 21.0 0.8 0.7

    Hitachi Neutral 146 - 335 873 989 4.4 6.5 6.4 12.2 23.0 12.0 1.8 1.6 8.3 14.4 0.4 0.4

    Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,525 2,842 2,233 1,809 2,117 5.5 7.5 84.9 135.3 29.8 18.7 3.2 2.8 11.3 16.0 1.1 0.9

    Styrolution ABS India* Accumulate 681 744 1,198 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 18.9 16.2 2.8 2.4 15.4 16.0 1.2 1.1ITD Cementation Buy 239 334 275 1,455 1,630 12.4 12.6 29.8 40.5 8.0 5.9 0.6 0.6 8.2 9.8 0.6 0.6

    Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 150 - 2,417 1,228 1,443 9.0 10.9 3.9 6.4 38.5 23.5 3.8 3.5 10.1 15.6 2.5 2.1

    MCX Accumulate 1,365 1,440 6,959 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 21.9 19.0 6.0 5.2 27.5 27.4 9.6 8.0

    MRF Neutral 13,251 - 5,620 13,030 14,405 10.3 10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1 9.3 7.9 1.6 1.4 19.1 18.7 0.5 0.5

    Page Industries Accumulate 3,430 3,602 3,826 836 1,023 20.2 20.6 105.6 133.4 32.5 25.7 16.5 11.7 59.3 53.2 4.6 3.8

    Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 816 933 980 1,019 1,208 11.0 12.5 47.0 66.7 17.4 12.3 4.3 3.2 28.2 30.1 1.1 0.9

    Sintex Industries Buy 63 79 1,987 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.7 4.0 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 289 366 271 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.4 4.0 0.9 0.7 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5

    S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 12 - 367 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 1.9 1.6 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.6 0.6

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    zOthers

    SpiceJet Reduce 47 43 2,284 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 13.1 8.8 18.9 6.0 - - 0.5 0.4

    TAJ GVK Buy 69 108 430 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.7 7.5 1.2 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.5

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 310 384 477 750 803 18.6 18.4 65.4 69.1 4.7 4.5 0.7 0.7 16.5 15.3 0.3 0.2

    TTK Healthcare Buy 514 643 399 374 425 7.9 9.5 24.1 32.7 21.4 15.7 19.7 22.5 0.9 0.8

    TVS Srichakra Buy 255 322 195 1,461 1,625 6.9 8.2 24.6 53.7 10.4 4.8 1.3 1.1 12.9 24.9 0.4 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 1,790 - 23,418 10,289 11,421 12.8 12.8 26.0 45.3 68.9 39.5 3.1 2.9 5.8 7.6 2.6 2.4

    Vesuvius India Neutral 331 - 672 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 13.4 11.5 2.0 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 25, 2013

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    Market OutlookJanuary 28, 2013