Market Outlook 020712

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 020712

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Market OutlookJuly 2, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers DiaryThe Indian markets are expected to open in green tracing positive opening in most

of the Asian bourses and the SGX Nifty. Asian stocks are in the positive territory

following better than expected manufacturing data in China and Japan.

US markets moved sharply higher during the trading session on Friday as tradersreacted positively to the latest developments in Europe. European Council president

announced that European leaders have agreed to spend Euro 120bn on a

package of measures to stimulate growth and create jobs and permit the EFSF and

the ESM to directly recapitalize ailing banks after a single European banking

regulator is commissioned. European markets also enjoyed their biggest one-day

gain in months on Friday, as investors cheered the plan to stimulate the region's

economy and prop up under capitalized banks

Meanwhile, Indian markets also rallied on Friday on hopes of increase in capital

inflows after the finance ministry placed the GAAR draft guidelines on the

government website and the Prime Minister's Office assured that the tax avoidance

rules would be finalized only after receiving feedback. Investor sentiment was

further bolstered on easing concerns about Europe's debt crisis.

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 17,338 / 5,251 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 17,541 17,652 / 5,314 5,349 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

17,338 / 5,251 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

17,227 17,024 / 5,217 5,154 levels.

SENSEX 17,024 17,227 17,338 17,541 17,652

NIFTY 5,154 5,217 5,251 5,314 5,349

News Analysis EU leaders agree on direct bank bailout Auto sales numbers June 2012 Reliance Industries and Niko Resources aim to double gas reserves L&T bags orders worth `3,042cr Cairn Energy sells 3.5% stake in Cairn India Cost reduction measures at CGs Belgium plantRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (June 28, 2012)

FII 4,034 4,729 (695) 134 42,080

MFs 808 456 353 485 (6,029)

FII Derivatives (June 29, 2012)

Index Futures 3,078 1,509 1,568 12,604

Stock Futures 1,157 1,998 (841) 22,894

Gainers / Losers

GMR Infra 25 9.1 Cairn India 308 (6.1)

Jindal Steel 470 8.7 Manappuram Fin 31 (2.3)

Lanco Infra 15 7.4 Gujarat Mnrl 186 (1.0)

Oracle Fin 2,593 7.0 Petronet LNG 143 (0.9)

Indiabulls Real Est 61 6.0 BPCL 745 (0.9)

BSE Sensex 2.6 439.2 17,430

Nifty 2.5 129.8 5,279

MID CAP 1.6 98.3 6,154

SMALL CAP 1.3 84.9 6,544

BSE HC 1.9 126.5 6,884

BSE PSU 1.8 125.1 7,258

BANKEX 3.5 401.2 11,909

AUTO 2.2 202.0 9,458

METAL 3.4 359.1 10,785

OIL & GAS 1.7 134.7 8,076

BSE IT 1.4 77.6 5,765

Dow Jones 2.2 277.8 12,880NASDAQ 3.0 85.6 2,935

FTSE 1.4 78.1 5,571

Nikkei 1.5 132.7 9,007

Hang Seng 2.2 416.2 19,441

Straits Times 1.1 31.6 2,878

Shanghai Com 1.4 29.6 2,225

INFY 5.3 2.3 $45.1

WIT 5.0 0.4 $9.2IBN 6.6 2.0 $32.4

HDB 5.2 1.6 $32.6

Advances 1,864 1,117

Declines 988 393

Unchanged 130 56

BSE 3,948

NSE 13,127


2/14



EU leaders have agreed to bailout struggling banks directly, without adding to

government debt and without preferential seniority status. The agreement meant

that countries could apply for bailouts that would not come with the stringentconditions that have accompanied previous EU bailouts. This decision will help

Spain, which sought a EUR100bn (US $126bn) rescue to rescue its troubled banks.

The agreement also establishes a joint banking supervisory body for the 17-nation

bloc that uses the euro currency, and allows the rescue fund to buy the bonds of

distressed sovereign borrowers.

The leaders of the full 27-member European Union also agreed to a general long-

term plan for a tighter budgetary and political union and a EUR 10bn boost of

capital for the European Investment Bank, expected to raise overall lending

capacity by EUR 60bn.

TTMT registered lower-than-expected sales for June 2012 led by weakness in the

domestic sales. Total volumes declined 3% yoy to 64,341 units led by 5% yoy

decline in domestic sales which were lower on account of sharp decline in MHCV

and passenger vehicle sales. Passenger vehicle sales declined 22% yoy led by

sharp fall in Indica and Indigo volumes which decline 35% and 46% yoy,

respectively. Commercial vehicle sales performed relatively better led by LCV saleswhich continue to witness strong momentum and were up 22% yoy. MHCV sales

however fell by 21% yoy due to subdued demand led by slowing industrial activity.

Meanwhile, TTMT suspended production of trucks at its Jamshedpur plant for

three days in June to avoid piling up of inventory.

MMs automotive segment reported slightly lower-than-expected sales growth of

16% yoy to 41,322 units on account of lower-than-expected growth in the

passenger UV segment. While passenger vehicle sales grew by 23% yoy, four-

wheeler pick-up segment volumes increased 13% yoy. The exports segment

registered a strong growth of 31% yoy during the month.

TVSL posted a dismal set of numbers for June 2012, with total volumes declining

by 8% yoy to 168,693 units led by weak performance across all the product

segments. While motorcycle sales decline 12% yoy, scooters sales unexpectedly

decline by 14% yoy. Three-wheeler sales too witnessed a sharp fall of 15% yoy

during the month.


3/14



Canadian oil and gas producer Niko Resources (Niko), which co-owns the KG-D6

block in India with BP and Reliance Industries (RIL), has prepared a plan to double

the gas reserves mainly in the KG-D6 block. RIL, BP and Niko own 60%, 30% and

10% in the KG-D6 block, respectively. According to Nikos plan, RIL will spend

US$300mn, BP will spend US$150mn and Niko will invest US$50mn for the

development of the field. On June 21, 2012, Niko had cut its 2P gas reserves

estimates by 80% to 1.9tcf. We maintain our estimates and

Larsen & Toubro's (L&T) construction arm bagged new projects worth `3,042cr in

June. The Power Transmission & Distribution IC has won new orders valued over`1,002cr in both domestic and international markets. A major order worth `846cr

has been bagged from West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company Limited

for Rural Electricity Infrastructure under the Backward Region Grant Fund Scheme.

On the international front, new orders worth `156cr have been secured from

reputed customers in Qatar for electrical network power quality improvement

work, including additional orders in ongoing projects in Middle East. Further, the

Infrastructure IC has won a major order valued at `2,040cr from a leading

infrastructure developer. The highway will be executed on EPC mode. The scope of

work involves six-laning of the existing road including construction of rail over

bridges, underpasses, flyovers, major bridges and viaducts.

At the CMP of `1,397, the stock is trading at PE of 14.0x FY2014E earnings, after

adjusting for investments, which is below the historical trading multiple for L&T. We

have used the SOTP methodology to value the company to capture all its business

initiatives and investments/stakes in different businesses. Ascribing separate values

to its parent business on P/E basis and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV

and mcap basis, our target price works out to `1,553. Owing to the recent surge

in the stock price, we

UK based Cairn Energy, which held 21.8% stake in Cairn India, sold 3.5% of its

stake (6.67cr shares) for over `2000cr in an open market deal on July 29, 2012.

During CY2011, Cairn Energy had sold 40% stake in Cairn India to Vedanta

resources. As a result of this bulk sale, Cairn Indias stock declined by 6% on the

same day. Nevertheless, we do not see any fundamental change in the business of

Cairn India and

Crompton greaves has announced cost reduction and right sizing measures at its

Belgium operations. The company has cited overcapacity and pricing pressure in

the transformer market in Western Europe as the reason for the measures. The

company plans to right size 260 jobs out of a total of 730. The move comes as


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part of CGs strategic agenda to improve its profitability going forward.

Economic and Political News

PSUs must declare financial impact of government directives Govt. may recast textile sectors `35000cr loan Assocham to petition PM to postpone implementation of negative list for

service tax

Corporate News

ONGC gets carbon credits for wind power project

State Bank of India raises deposit rate by 25 bps Kingfisher pilots go on strike over non-payment of salariesSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


5/14

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

July 02, 2012 India Imports YoY% % Change MAY 3.80 --

India Exports YoY% % Change MAY 3.20 --UK PMI Manufacturing Value JUN 45.90 46.50

Germany PMI Manufacturing Value JUN F 44.70 44.70

July 04, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value JUN F 50.30 50.30

July 05, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands JUN 30 386.00 385.00

UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio JUL 5 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % JUL 5 1.00 0.75

July 06, 2012 US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands JUN 69.00 90.00

US Unnemployment rate % JUN 8.20 8.20

July 09, 2012 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change JUN 3.00 2.30

July 10, 2012 UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change MAY (1.00) --

China Exports YoY% % Change JUN 15.30 10.60

July 12, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change MAY 0.10 --

July 13, 2012 IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

% Change JUN 7.55 --

US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change JUN (1.00) (0.60)

China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change JUN 9.60 10.10

China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q 8.10 7.80

July 16, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % JUN 2.40 --

July 17, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change JUN 2.80 --

US Industrial Production % JUN (0.09) --

US Consumer price index (mom) % Change JUN (0.30) --

July 18, 2012 US Housing Starts Thousands JUN 708.00 --

US Building permits Thousands JUN 784.00 --

UK Jobless claims change % Change JUN 8.10 --

July 19, 2012 US Existing home sales Millions JUN 4.55 --

July 23, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

Value JUL A (19.80) --

July 25, 2012 UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q A (0.20) --

US New home sales Thousands JUN 369.00 --

July 27, 2012 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q A 1.90 --

July 31, 2012 US Consumer Confidence S.A./1985=100 JUL 62.00 --

Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands JUL 7.00 --

India RBI Repo rate % JUL 31 8.00 --

India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % JUL 31 4.75 --

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % JUL 31 7.00 --

August 01, 2012 China PMI Manufacturing Value JUL 50.20 --

US FOMC rate decision % AUG 1 0.25 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research


July 02, 2012

Market Outlook


6/14

Market StrategyJuly 2, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

5.9

7.5

9.8

7.4

9.4

8.5

7.68.2

9.2

8.0

6.76.1

5.3

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

(%)

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:IIP trends

6.2

9.5

3.7 3.42.5

(5.0)

6.0

2.7

1.0

4.1

(3.2)

0.1

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

(%)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

7.76.9

7.4 7.7 7.2 7.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

(%)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

Expor ts yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


7/14

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 139 - 2,704 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 19.9 17.4 4.2 3.6 22.8 22.3 1.9 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 126 183 5,787 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 7.3 6.9 1.2 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 302 345 2,576 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 10.4 9.2 2.4 1.9 26.0 23.3 0.9 0.8

Apollo Tyres Buy 79 100 3,982 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.5 5.9 1.2 1.0 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 25 33 6,638 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.3 8.4 2.1 1.8 14.8 16.5 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle Accumulate 447 514 676 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 8.9 7.8 2.2 1.8 27.8 25.7 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Buy 1,572 1,835 45,488 22,118 24,889 19.0 18.6 115.7 126.5 13.6 12.4 5.5 4.3 45.0 38.9 1.6 1.4

Bharat Forge Buy 300 372 6,983 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.4 11.3 2.6 2.2 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

Bosch India Neutral 9,109 - 28,601 9,390 10,716 19.5 19.1 420.2 471.4 21.7 19.3 5.0 4.2 23.3 21.8 2.8 2.4

CEAT Buy 98 164 336 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.5 2.4 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Accumulate 137 146 11,611 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 19.2 15.3 3.4 2.9 18.6 20.3 1.7 1.4

FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,438 1,594 2,390 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 12.2 10.8 2.6 2.2 24.0 21.9 1.3 1.1

Hero Motocorp Neutral 2,142 - 42,775 26,106 29,296 15.0 15.2 140.3 148.1 15.3 14.5 7.2 5.5 54.8 43.3 1.3 1.1

JK Tyre Buy 93 135 384 7,950 8,904 5.5 6.0 25.1 38.6 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.4 12.1 16.4 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 707 821 43,402 36,010 40,882 10.0 10.0 47.7 53.3 14.8 13.3 3.0 2.5 21.3 20.6 0.9 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,170 1,510 33,795 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 13.5 11.6 1.9 1.7 15.3 15.5 0.6 0.5

Motherson Sumi Buy 164 216 6,419 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 12.3 9.1 2.9 2.3 26.2 28.4 0.5 0.4

Subros Neutral 37 - 224 1,244 1,402 8.4 8.3 4.5 5.1 8.3 7.3 0.8 0.8 9.9 11.0 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Buy 242 299 64,509 189,676 210,905 12.5 12.6 39.8 45.2 6.1 5.4 2.5 2.0 44.3 41.6 0.4 0.3

TVS Motor Buy 36 44 1,732 7,690 8,459 6.1 6.0 5.0 5.5 7.3 6.6 1.3 1.2 19.0 18.6 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 801 498 16,970 8,760 10,023 7.6 7.5 18.2 20.7 43.9 38.6 5.9 5.3 14.4 14.6 1.9 1.7BGR Energy Neutral 302 - 2,179 4,195 4,837 11.0 11.0 30.1 32.4 10.0 9.3 1.7 1.6 18.4 17.6 1.0 1.0

BHEL Neutral 232 - 56,809 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 9.9 9.6 2.0 1.7 21.3 18.9 1.1 1.1

Blue Star Neutral 164 - 1,475 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 17.1 10.1 3.4 2.7 20.7 29.7 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Buy 121 142 7,775 12,451 14,265 7.9 8.3 8.0 9.5 15.2 12.8 2.0 1.8 13.9 14.9 0.7 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 40 67 330 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.4 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 56 73 1,432 6,686 7,200 8.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 5.3 4.6 1.0 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.4 0.4

LMW Buy 1,632 1,992 1,839 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 11.4 9.8 1.9 1.7 17.4 18.4 0.3 0.2

Thermax Neutral 478 - 5,697 5,514 5,559 9.8 9.6 29.7 28.4 16.1 16.9 3.0 2.7 20.2 16.9 0.9 0.9


July 02, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


8/14



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,268 - 23,798 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 17.9 15.6 3.1 2.8 18.0 19.0 1.9 1.6

Ambuja Cements Neutral 174 - 26,756 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 17.2 16.5 3.4 3.0 18.5 19.4 2.3 1.9

India Cements Neutral 87 - 2,665 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 8.8 6.9 0.7 0.7 8.6 10.5 0.9 0.8

J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 67 79 825 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 14.6 16.1 4.6 4.2 0.6 0.5 13.4 13.6 0.6 0.9

Madras Cements Neutral 159 - 3,774 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 10.9 9.3 1.6 1.4 15.6 16.0 1.7 1.5

Shree Cements Neutral 3,016 - 10,508 5,465 6,249 24.3 23.7 151.5 222.1 19.9 13.6 4.8 4.1 21.6 25.8 1.6 1.3

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,511 - 41,421 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 18.4 15.5 2.9 2.5 16.8 17.4 2.0 1.9Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 215 273 1,132 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 9.5 8.1 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.4 2.7

Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 251 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 7.4 4.8 0.4 0.4 5.5 8.1 0.3 0.3

Hind. Const. Neutral 20 - 1,241 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (11.4) (26.2) 1.2 1.3 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 127 166 4,214 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 8.5 7.5 1.3 1.1 16.1 15.8 2.7 2.5

ITNL Buy 184 265 3,580 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.0 26.7 8.4 6.9 1.2 1.0 14.9 15.9 2.2 2.1

IVRCL Infra Buy 53 61 1,410 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 20.9 11.5 0.7 0.7 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 74 88 15,629 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 17.3 14.7 1.4 1.3 8.5 9.3 2.4 2.1

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,397 1,553 85,627 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 70.8 76.5 19.7 18.3 3.0 2.6 16.1 15.3 1.6 1.4

Madhucon Proj Buy 38 56 278 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 8.1 8.1 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Reduce 45 41 1,164 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 27.6 23.5 0.5 0.5 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 94 - 658 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.7 6.5 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

Punj Lloyd Neutral 49 - 1,622 11,592 12,993 8.4 8.4 1.8 3.2 27.1 15.3 0.5 0.5 2.0 3.4 0.6 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 144 182 2,163 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 17.0 13.8 2.3 2.0 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.9

Simplex Infra Buy 223 265 1,104 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 9.5 7.6 0.9 0.8 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.5

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Neutral 150 - 7,483 7,392 8,542 3.1 3.1 38.3 42.1 3.9 3.6 0.7 0.6 18.4 17.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 118 - 6,625 5,151 5,843 3.2 3.1 22.4 25.7 5.3 4.6 0.8 0.7 15.8 16.0 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,016 1,476 42,084 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 8.7 7.3 1.6 1.4 20.0 20.3 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 733 925 28,681 15,993 18,918 2.6 2.6 127.3 149.9 5.8 4.9 1.0 0.8 17.8 18.2 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 347 389 19,904 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 61.6 70.8 5.6 4.9 0.9 0.8 16.8 16.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 50 53 2,921 3,580 4,050 3.2 3.2 11.5 13.1 4.3 3.8 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

Canara Bank Buy 412 493 18,269 12,061 13,906 2.3 2.3 83.1 92.7 5.0 4.5 0.8 0.7 16.7 16.4 - -

Central Bank Neutral 82 - 6,029 6,838 7,912 2.3 2.4 13.8 20.3 5.9 4.0 0.9 0.7 10.9 14.4 - -


July 02, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


9/14



Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 417 468 6,177 5,203 5,880 2.2 2.1 107.5 112.7 3.9 3.7 0.7 0.6 17.9 16.5 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 99 107 3,453 3,149 3,522 2.8 2.8 23.3 26.1 4.2 3.8 0.7 0.6 17.7 17.0 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 448 - 7,665 2,743 3,131 3.4 3.3 49.7 57.4 9.0 7.8 1.2 1.1 14.1 14.6 - -

HDFC Neutral 654 - 97,464 7,393 8,844 3.5 3.4 31.7 37.9 20.7 17.3 4.1 3.7 34.7 31.9 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 564 - 132,635 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 19.9 15.9 3.8 3.2 20.8 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 900 1,174 103,399 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 13.3 11.1 1.6 1.5 14.7 16.0 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 94 113 11,953 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 4.7 3.9 0.6 0.6 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 175 190 7,530 6,312 7,119 3.4 3.3 41.1 43.7 4.3 4.0 0.7 0.7 18.2 16.9 - -

IOB Accumulate 83 92 6,639 7,354 8,283 2.5 2.4 16.3 21.7 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.5 11.5 13.9 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 992 - 4,807 2,535 2,861 3.5 3.4 176.3 184.4 5.6 5.4 1.0 0.9 19.3 17.6 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 269 286 13,583 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 11.0 8.8 2.1 1.7 20.1 21.4 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 253 - 7,379 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 4.7 4.0 0.6 0.6 13.6 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 810 1,041 27,477 19,893 23,653 3.1 3.2 153.4 175.2 5.3 4.6 1.0 0.8 18.3 18.1 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 2,735 1,440 1,635 2.7 2.5 3.8 4.1 6.4 5.9 1.2 1.1 19.9 18.6 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,159 2,469 144,889 68,311 79,649 3.6 3.6 230.4 273.4 9.4 7.9 1.5 1.3 18.2 18.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 107 126 6,426 7,133 8,255 3.0 3.0 25.9 30.0 4.1 3.6 0.7 0.6 16.9 17.1 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 80 - 5,298 5,623 6,380 2.4 2.4 16.9 17.9 4.7 4.5 0.9 0.8 16.5 15.4 - -

Union Bank Buy 209 261 11,506 10,215 11,854 2.9 2.8 42.7 50.3 4.9 4.2 0.8 0.7 17.0 17.5 - -

United Bank Buy 60 78 2,166 3,551 4,128 2.7 2.8 18.8 22.6 3.2 2.7 0.5 0.4 15.5 16.5 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 58 - 2,882 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.6 12.2 5.5 4.8 0.8 0.7 13.3 13.8 - -

Yes Bank Buy 339 450 12,001 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 10.0 8.2 2.1 1.7 23.1 23.3 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,882 - 37,235 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 31.0 26.2 10.5 8.3 38.0 35.4 3.2 2.7Britannia Buy 525 633 6,269 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 25.3 19.1 9.9 7.4 42.7 44.3 1.1 0.9

Colgate Neutral 1,194 - 16,233 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 38.2 43.8 31.2 27.3 37.2 29.2 130.2 119.9 5.3 4.6

Dabur India Reduce 114 106 19,869 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 27.5 23.2 10.0 8.1 39.3 42.0 3.4 2.9

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,734 - 11,496 3,124 3,663 17.1 11.6 103.0 123.3 26.6 22.2 8.2 6.6 34.0 32.9 3.4 2.8

Godrej Consumer Neutral 573 - 19,485 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 25.1 21.1 6.9 5.6 31.3 38.4 3.4 2.9

HUL Neutral 454 - 98,221 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 32.2 27.7 24.1 18.8 82.7 76.2 3.7 3.2

ITC Neutral 259 - 202,458 29,638 34,159 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 27.7 23.8 8.9 7.3 35.3 33.8 6.6 5.6


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FMCG

Marico Neutral 184 - 11,836 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 27.6 22.6 7.4 5.8 30.0 28.8 2.6 2.1

Nestle* Neutral 4,536 - 43,733 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 119.3 147.9 38.0 30.7 23.3 15.9 73.0 61.6 5.0 4.1

Tata Global Buy 116 136 7,170 7,011 7,711 9.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 18.5 15.5 1.8 1.7 9.5 10.9 0.9 0.8

IT

HCL Tech Buy 476 560 33,006 22,792 25,743 17.4 17.4 37.8 43.0 12.6 11.1 2.8 2.3 22.3 21.3 1.4 1.2

Hexaware Neutral 128 - 3,779 1,821 2,105 19.0 18.6 9.8 10.7 13.0 11.9 3.0 2.6 23.7 22.5 1.8 1.5

Infosys Accumulate 2,503 2,792 143,704 37,615 42,491 31.1 30.6 158.5 174.5 15.8 14.3 3.6 3.0 22.5 20.8 3.2 2.7Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 159 177 1,772 1,758 1,972 17.0 16.6 16.8 18.6 9.5 8.6 1.3 1.1 13.6 13.2 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Neutral 116 - 2,065 2,028 2,239 15.0 14.8 9.0 11.4 12.9 10.2 2.3 1.9 19.3 18.7 1.0 0.8

Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 78 86 9,232 7,097 7,812 16.2 16.0 7.5 8.0 10.5 9.9 1.4 1.2 13.2 12.3 0.9 0.7

Mindtree Neutral 645 - 2,624 2,172 2,450 16.1 15.5 53.9 58.5 12.0 11.0 2.2 1.9 18.9 17.0 1.0 0.8

Mphasis Neutral 372 - 7,807 5,608 5,964 17.7 17.3 35.5 36.8 10.5 10.1 1.5 1.3 13.9 12.6 0.9 0.8

NIIT Buy 42 52 692 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 5.9 4.8 1.0 0.9 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

Persistent Reduce 395 361 1,579 1,109 1,224 23.3 22.4 37.2 40.1 10.6 9.9 1.6 1.4 15.4 14.5 1.1 0.9

TCS Neutral 1,278 - 250,045 57,189 66,329 29.3 28.7 63.2 70.9 20.2 18.0 6.2 5.0 30.5 27.7 4.1 3.5

Tech Mahindra Neutral 708 - 9,028 5,880 6,314 15.6 15.2 75.9 82.2 9.3 8.6 1.9 1.6 20.1 18.1 1.5 1.3

Wipro Accumulate 399 452 98,214 43,150 48,541 20.0 20.5 25.9 30.1 15.4 13.3 3.0 2.5 19.1 19.0 1.9 1.6

Media

D B Corp Buy 204 269 3,743 1,652 1,863 25.7 26.3 13.5 16.1 15.1 12.7 3.4 2.9 24.1 24.4 2.2 1.9

HT Media Buy 97 148 2,274 2,255 2,555 16.3 16.7 9.0 10.6 10.8 9.1 1.3 1.2 13.4 13.8 0.6 0.5

Jagran Prakashan Buy 88 137 2,775 1,499 1,642 27.4 28.8 7.6 9.1 11.5 9.7 3.9 3.5 34.6 37.7 1.8 1.6

PVR Neutral 153 - 397 625 732 17.4 16.9 12.4 15.8 12.3 9.7 2.0 2.1 8.5 9.9 0.8 0.7

Sun TV Network Neutral 302 - 11,899 2,135 2,458 75.2 74.4 20.9 24.0 14.5 12.6 3.4 2.8 26.0 25.1 4.5 3.7Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Reduce 464 436 9,844 9,232 13,557 30.8 31.1 48.0 58.6 9.7 7.9 1.2 1.1 14.5 7.5 3.2 2.2

Coal India Neutral 347 - 219,430 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 14.4 13.3 4.0 3.3 30.4 26.8 2.3 2.0

Electrosteel Castings Buy 18 22 605 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.0 2.7 8.6 6.5 0.3 0.1 4.2 5.5 0.5 0.5

Hind. Zinc Accumulate 123 139 51,929 13,043 14,223 51.8 52.8 14.8 16.6 8.3 7.4 1.6 1.4 21.2 19.9 2.3 1.7

Hindalco Neutral 120 - 22,955 83,463 91,313 9.0 9.9 13.7 18.1 8.8 6.6 0.7 0.6 7.9 9.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 679 - 15,144 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 9.1 7.6 0.9 0.8 10.7 11.6 0.7 0.7

MOIL Neutral 283 - 4,747 1,007 1,091 56.6 56.9 29.4 31.9 9.6 8.9 1.7 1.5 19.0 18.2 2.5 2.1

Monnet Ispat Buy 381 447 2,452 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 6.5 5.7 0.9 0.8 15.6 15.3 1.5 1.1


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Metals & Mining

Nalco Reduce 60 54 15,360 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 23.3 16.6 1.3 1.2 5.6 7.5 1.4 1.3

NMDC Neutral 186 - 73,843 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 9.8 8.9 2.4 2.0 27.1 24.4 4.1 3.5

SAIL Neutral 91 - 37,423 50,914 60,785 14.6 15.1 9.4 10.5 9.7 8.6 0.9 0.8 9.2 9.6 1.2 1.1

Sesa Goa Neutral 192 - 16,648 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.3 4.3 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.4 0.1

Sterlite Inds Buy 103 123 34,497 45,805 49,029 21.2 23.5 16.5 19.1 6.2 5.4 0.7 0.6 11.5 12.0 0.4 0.2

Tata Steel Accumulate 441 499 42,860 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 8.2 6.7 1.0 0.9 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Buy 308 372 58,667 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.0 6.3 1.0 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.6 1.9

GAIL Accumulate 352 389 44,606 50,472 55,502 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 9.9 9.5 1.8 1.5 19.0 17.2 0.1 -

ONGC Accumulate 285 321 243,575 156,331 159,043 37.7 36.3 31.3 32.6 9.1 8.7 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.3 1.2 1.1

Reliance Industries Buy 737 897 241,482 316,404 319,119 11.2 12.0 63.5 68.7 11.6 10.7 1.2 1.1 11.7 11.4 0.7 0.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 56 91 1,048 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 8.4 6.1 2.0 1.6 27.5 29.2 0.9 0.7

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 110 156 3,201 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 13.8 14.7 8.0 7.5 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.8 0.6

Aventis* Neutral 2,157 - 4,967 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.7 20.7 4.0 3.1 18.6 17.0 3.1 2.7

Cadila Healthcare Buy 769 953 15,749 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 43.3 50.8 17.8 15.1 4.6 3.7 25.4 24.8 2.5 2.0

Cipla Buy 316 379 25,404 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 19.2 16.7 3.0 2.6 16.7 16.8 3.2 2.8

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,649 - 27,983 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.7 17.8 4.1 3.4 22.4 21.0 2.7 2.5

Dishman Pharma Buy 65 92 525 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 7.1 5.8 0.5 0.5 7.7 8.5 1.1 0.9

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,016 - 17,074 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.5 24.5 7.6 6.6 30.8 29.0 5.5 4.7

Indoco Remedies Buy 55 82 511 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 7.5 6.2 1.1 0.9 15.9 16.3 0.9 0.7

Ipca labs Buy 359 435 4,530 2,850 3,474 20.3 20.3 26.6 32.7 13.5 11.0 3.5 2.8 28.2 27.9 1.7 1.4

Lupin Buy 539 647 24,083 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 29.7 32.4 18.2 16.6 4.7 3.8 27.0 25.2 2.8 2.2Orchid Chemicals Buy 118 178 832 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 7.1 5.3 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.0 0.9

Ranbaxy* Neutral 490 - 20,698 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.7 16.5 5.2 4.2 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7

Sun Pharma Reduce 636 569 65,456 9,272 11,080 38.6 38.0 22.7 22.6 28.0 28.1 4.7 4.2 17.9 15.6 5.0 3.9

Power

CESC Buy 290 342 3,619 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.4 6.0 0.7 0.6 11.2 10.9 1.2 1.2

GIPCL Buy 65 77 976 1,557 1,573 28.8 28.5 10.4 10.9 6.2 5.9 0.6 0.6 10.4 10.2 1.1 0.9

NTPC Neutral 160 - 131,721 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 12.9 11.4 1.6 1.5 13.0 13.5 2.5 2.3

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 48 78 1,416 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.7 3.8 0.4 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.4 2.6

DLF Neutral 198 - 33,697 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 20.7 14.8 1.3 1.3 6.4 8.7 5.9 4.9


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Real Estate

HDIL Buy 87 115 3,643 2,441 3,344 53.0 46.7 21.4 25.4 4.1 3.4 0.3 0.3 8.4 9.1 3.3 2.5

MLIFE Accumulate 329 376 1,345 814 897 26.9 27.0 31.3 33.9 10.5 9.7 1.1 1.0 10.2 10.1 2.0 1.8

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 305 - 115,825 80,961 86,705 33.5 34.0 17.2 20.8 17.7 14.7 2.0 1.8 11.5 12.3 2.1 1.8

Idea Cellular Neutral 76 - 25,103 22,558 25,326 26.4 27.5 3.2 4.7 23.5 16.0 1.8 1.6 7.5 10.0 1.6 1.4

Rcom Neutral 63 - 13,096 22,288 23,871 32.1 32.7 4.4 6.0 14.4 10.6 0.4 0.3 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.7

zOthersAbbott India Accumulate 1,476 1,628 3,137 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 24.3 16.3 5.0 4.0 22.0 27.3 1.7 1.4

Bajaj Electricals Buy 197 246 1,965 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 11.4 8.8 2.5 2.1 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 271 306 343 395 469 15.4 16.6 30.0 38.0 9.0 7.1 2.0 1.6 23.7 24.5 1.0 0.9

Cravatex Buy 555 785 143 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 11.3 7.8 3.4 2.4 29.8 30.7 0.6 0.5

CRISIL Neutral 1,071 - 7,512 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 31.2 26.8 14.1 11.3 50.9 46.9 7.2 6.1

Finolex Cables Buy 42 61 636 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.5 4.1 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Force Motors Buy 461 615 601 2,346 2,753 5.8 6.7 44.0 68.0 10.5 6.8 0.5 0.5 4.8 7.0 0.2 0.2

Goodyear India Buy 314 374 725 1,511 1,692 7.9 9.0 31.5 41.3 10.0 7.6 2.0 1.6 21.2 23.5 0.3 0.2

Graphite India Buy 90 124 1,749 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.2 6.4 1.0 0.9 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.8

Greenply Industries Buy 187 309 451 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.3 4.2 1.0 0.8 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

HEG Buy 208 242 833 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.3 6.3 0.9 0.9 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.1

Hitachi Buy 115 160 264 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 11.3 7.2 1.4 1.2 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation Neutral 2,747 - 2,428 1,761 2,024 6.7 8.2 95.0 127.0 28.9 21.6 3.4 2.9 14.1 16.3 1.3 1.1

INEOS ABS India Accumulate 737 804 1,296 900 1,020 9.0 11.1 33.0 45.0 22.3 16.4 3.0 2.6 14.3 17.0 1.2 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 230 - 264 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.4 6.0 0.6 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 235 268 1,893 1,315 1,568 8.6 11.1 6.4 10.9 36.8 21.6 3.1 2.9 8.4 13.9 1.7 1.4MCX Buy 1,060 1,598 5,406 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 15.6 13.3 4.6 3.8 29.1 28.9 5.9 4.7

MRF Buy 10,033 13,106 4,255 12,390 14,400 10.4 11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2 7.5 6.1 1.5 1.2 16.5 17.4 0.5 0.5

Page Industries Neutral 2,899 - 3,233 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 30.5 24.0 15.9 12.9 57.4 59.5 3.7 2.9

Relaxo Footwears Reduce 515 478 618 1,019 1,208 11.0 10.8 44.9 53.1 11.5 9.7 2.8 2.2 27.2 25.0 0.8 0.6

Sintex Industries Buy 62 79 1,679 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.5 3.9 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 265 392 249 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.0 3.4 0.8 0.6 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

SpiceJet Buy 33 40 1,620 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 17.2 6.8 40.5 5.8 - - 0.4 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 62 108 390 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.9 6.8 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.4


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zOthers

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 341 420 525 700 806 18.2 18.2 55.6 65.1 6.1 5.2 0.8 0.7 14.2 14.8 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Buy 323 462 247 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.5 3.5 1.3 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Accumulate 686 730 8,970 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 22.1 16.0 1.7 1.6 8.1 10.3 1.6 1.4

Vesuvius India Accumulate 370 413 750 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.4 10.7 2.2 1.9 18.8 18.6 1.0 0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 29, 2012


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Stock Watch


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July 02, 2012Market Outlook

Market Outlook 020712

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