Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR)...
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Transcript of Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR)...
![Page 1: Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Thanks to the National Park Service for funding Effects.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfb61a28abf838c9e70a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT)
J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmesand L. Emmons (NCAR)
Thanks to the National Park Service for funding
Effects of Climate, Emissions and Land Cover Changes on Air Quality in the U.S. National Parks
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Effects of Climate, Emissions and Land Cover Changes on Air Quality in the U.S. National Parks
Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT)
J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmesand L. Emmons (NCAR)
About 50% of forests will be exposed to damaging O3 by 2100; and 20% will exceed critical loads from S
and N deposition by 2050 [FAO, 2007]
![Page 3: Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Thanks to the National Park Service for funding Effects.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfb61a28abf838c9e70a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.1_alpha12b)
Coupler
CAM-Chem 1.9x2.5 spatial resolution26 vertical levels to ~3
hPa
Land Model (CLM 4)
IPCC scenarios and derived emissions
(RCP 4.5 and 8.5)
2000 and 2050
GHGs
O3 and PM Precursors
Prescribed sea-ice and ocean data (e.g., SST and
sea-ice fraction)
Land cover/use data (e.g., LAI, PFTs, etc)
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Projections of global AQ-relevant emissions
• Similar GHGs projections, except CH4
• The RCP scenarios project large decreases for all emissions, except NH3 and CH4 in RCP 8.5
Emissions (Tg Species/year)
Main GHGs
20502050
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Projections of land cover/land use changes
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
% Trees
% Crops
LAI
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Fine Dust and Seasalt were adjusted to match IMPROVE observationsDust SeaSalt
Emissions reduced by a factor of 2 and used an
improved soil erodibility map
Emissions reduced by a factor of 10
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Effects on changes in climate alone
↑3 oC
Annual Average in 20002050 RCP 4.5 - 20002050 RCP 8.5 - 2000
Precipitation
Temperature
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Effects of overall change on ozone
Summer Daily Max 8-hr Avg Surface O3
2000 2050 RCP 8.52050 RCP 4.5
↓4 ppb~↓10 ppb
↑2 ppb
RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5
∆Total =2050-2000
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RCP4.5 projects an important O3 reduction from decreased anthropogenic emissions
RCP4.5
∆Climate ∆Land Cover/Use
∆Anthro Emissions
Important decrease in NOx emissions
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In RCP8.5, climate and land cover changes offset benefits from emission reductions
RCP8.5
∆Climate ∆ Land Cover/Use
∆Anthro Emissions
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Both RCPs project a decrease in PM2.5
Annual Average PM 2.5 2000 2050 RCP 8.52050 RCP 4.5
RCP 4.5 RCP8.5
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Change in PM2.5 due mainly to SO4 and NH4NO3 emission reduction
Changes in Chemical SpeciationEast US West US
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What is next…
Rocky Mountain NP affected by Haze
• Study the effect of nitrogen deposition.
• Perform high resolution (0.5x0.5) simulations, and analyze the effect of spatial resolution on the results.
• Focus on the air quality over the US National Parks
http://www.nature.nps.gov/