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March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Cape Grim: A 28-year record of the changing atmosphere Graeme Pearman CSIRO Slide 2 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Cape Grim Slide 3 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 4 Air samples from around the world brought for analysis in Melbourne Slide 5 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Air archive tanks filled at Cape Grim and stored in Melbourne Slide 6 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 7 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 8 Slide 9 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra CONTENTS 1. Marine emissions-climate connection 2. Marine biology and carbon exchange 3. Regional surface exchange 4. Reactive atmospheric chemistry 5. Global biogeochemical budgets Slide 10 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 1. Marine emissions-climate connection DMSPollutionSolar radiation Cloud Condensation Nuclei Size of cloud droplets Cloud optical depth Precipitation Cloud depth Slide 11 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 1. Marine emissions-climate connection Slide 12 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 1. Marine emissions-climate connection Slide 13 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 2. Marine biology and carbon exchange Composite from cruises, 1991-1999 Slide 14 2. Marine biology and carbon exchange Atmospheric oxygen variation at Cape Grim Slide 15 Net uptake: Oceanic 2.3 GtC yr -1 Terrestrial 0.2 GtC yr -1 Partitioning fossil CO 2 -7.8 -7.6 -7.4 C (per mil PDB) Cape Grim 13 C in CO 2 in-situ CO 2 extraction air archive -200 -100 0 100 200 0 2 /N/N 2 ) (per meg) 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 Cape Grim O 2 /N/N 2 air archive 13 C-predicted curve SIO flasks URI CSIRO South Pole firn 330 340 350 360 CO 2 (ppmv) Cape Grim in-situ CO 2 Slide 16 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET (1) (2) (3) 78-97 91 Fossil fuel release +5.6 +5.6 +6.0 Ocean uptake -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 Net biospheric uptake -0.2 -0.7 -2.0 Atmospheric accumulation -3.1 -3.1 -2.3 (1)Langenfelds et al. (1999) (2)Rayner et al. (1999) (3) Keeling et al. (1996) Slide 17 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Domain of the transport model (DARLAM) Cape Grim Slide 18 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra The modelled plume just miss Cape Grim but observations did not! (from B. Dunse) Cape Grim Slide 19 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 20 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 21 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra NPP estimates for the Australian continent (Gt C/yr) Wang et al. 0.5 -0.8* (1.1-1.3) Barrett0.76-1.21 Kirschbaum1.4 Gifford (1992)2.7 Graetz2.8 * estimates after inversion Slide 22 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Down to local scale a study in progress 1.7 Mha burned 42.5 Mt CO 2 -C emitted Slide 23 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 24 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Methyl chloroform (CH 3 CCl 3 ) - Cape Grim All data Baseline data Slide 25 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 26 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange HCFC-22 (CHClF 2 ) Cape Grim Slide 27 3. Regional surface exchange Chloroform - Cape Grim Melbourne Latrobe Valley Cape Grim Slide 28 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Chloroform (CHCl 3 ) and HFC-134a (CH 2 FCF 3 ) - Cape Grim 3. Regional surface exchange Slide 29 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange HFC-134a (CH 2 FCF 3 ) - Cape Grim Slide 30 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange H-1211 (CBrClF 2 )- Cape Grim Slide 31 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 32 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Bell Bay Slide 33 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Portland and Point Henry Slide 34 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Carbon tetrafluoride (CF 4 ) Observations with TAPM Simulation Slide 35 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 )- Cape Grim 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 19301940195019601970198019902000 SF 6 (ppt) Antarctic firn Cape Grim Unpublished data of Etheridge, Levin, Harnisch, Fraser, MacFarling et al. Slide 36 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Regional surface exchange Carbon tetrafluoride (CF 4 )- Cape Grim 20 40 60 19301940195019601970198019902000 CF 4 (ppt) Antarctic firn SH Atmosphere Unpublished data of Etheridge, Levin, Harnisch, Fraser, MacFarling et al. Cape Grim from: Maiss et al. Slide 37 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 4. Reactive atmospheric chemistry: Photochemistry Slide 38 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 4. Reactive atmospheric chemistry: Heterogeneous Chemistry Slide 39 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 3. Reactive atmospheric chemistry Methyl chloroform (CH 3 CCl 3 ) - Cape Grim All data Baseline data Slide 40 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra All data Baseline data 5. Global biogeochemical budgets CFC-11 (CCl 3 F) - Cape Grim Slide 41 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 5. Global biogeochemical budgets CFC11(CCl 3 F) and IPCC/SRES A1 scenario Slide 42 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra All data Baseline data 5. Global biogeochemical budgets CFC-12 (CCl 2 F 2 ) - Cape Grim Slide 43 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 5. Global biogeochemical budgets CFC12 (CCl 2 F 2 ) and IPCC/SRES A1 Scenario Slide 44 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra 5. Global biogeochemical budgets Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Cape Grim Slide 45 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Rate of change of carbon dioxide Slide 46 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 47 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Mauna Loa (21 o N) South Pole (90 o S) Cape Grim (41 o S) 356 360 364 368 372 C O 2 ( p p m ) 19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001 Year 352 CO 2 TRENDS From Francey et al. Slide 48 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Atmospheric transport of CO 2 Slide 49 3D space-time inversion (Rayner et al., Tellus, 1999) Flux GtC yr -1 Slide 50 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Growth of atmospheric methane has currently ceased Slide 51 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Slide 52 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra EMERGING ISSUES Role of existing time-series stations (aircraft/ships, campaigns, # of observatories) New capabilities in atmospheric transport modelling New measurements and calibration Solutions demanding integration (disciplinary-multidisciplinary-integrative- consilience) Slide 53 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra CONCLUSIONS Cape Grim has contributed to our knowledge of a wide variety of processes that determine the composition of the atmosphere The mixture of fixed site, airborne and other sampling with ice core and archived air has been very powerful The global atmosphere is responding chemically to human activities This is a part of global change Slide 54 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Greg Ayers John Gras Reinout Boers Paul Krummel Nada Derek Ray Langenfelds Bronwyn DunsePeter Rayner David Etheridge Paul Steele Ian Enting Bronte Tilbrook Roger Francey Ying Ping Wang Paul Fraser The AGAGE team Staff at the Cape Grim Observatory Slide 55 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Portland and Point Henry Slide 56 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Bell Bay Slide 57 March 23, 20049 th IGM/SPG/Symposium, Canberra Modelled and observed concentrations at two locations