Mapping the Shifting Agroclimatic Parameters and Agricultural Regions of

North America, A.D. 2100

William A. DandoIndiana State University

Bharath Ganesh-BabuValparaiso University

Climate and Agriculture

• Agriculture is the most important primary economic activity

• Agriculture is the primary economic activity most dependent on climate

Climate Change and Variation:Potential Impact in North America,

A.D. 2100 (Causes)

• Astronomical Changes

• Atmospheric composition and transparency changes

• Natural earth surface changes

• Human-induced earth surface changes

Possible Impact of Climate Change on North American Agriculture (Heat)

• Temperature will increase at a minimum of 3 to 6 degrees F

• Minimum temperatures will increase dramatically

• Permafrost melt will shift the southern boundary of permanently frozen ground 350 miles north

• Ice in the arctic will be reduced by 85 percent

Possible Impact of Climate Change on North American Agriculture (Moisture)

• Droughts in all climate regions will be more frequent

• Arid climate regions will expand in size

• Precipitation in A, C, and D climates will increase by 3 percent

• Sea levels will rise at a minimum 15 inches

Possible Impact of Climate Change on North American Agriculture (Storms)

• Violent rainstorms and tornadoes will be more frequent

• Hurricanes will be more violent and penetrate farther into the North American continent

• Winds will increase in speed and intensity

• Dust storm will be more frequent and be more intense

Postulated Major Agricultural Regions of North America, A.D. 2100

• Specialty Crops• Mediterranean Agriculture• Corn, Beans, and Livestock• Mixed Farming• Dairy, Fruit, and Small Grains• Plantation Agriculture• Wheat and Small Grains• Non-Agricultural Areas• Range Livestock Ranching

Summary: A New Era for American Agriculture

• There will be a shift in agricultural regions and a change in crop combinations

• Yields and productivity will increase

• International demands for food will increase farm income

• North America will experience a new era of agricultural innovation and adjustment and rural prosperity.

Reminder and Warning

• Prediction of future climates and future agricultural regions is highly speculative