Managing Agile Software Projects With Risk and Uncertainty

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  • ManagingAgileSo,wareProjectsUnderUncertainty

    RocketScience?

    Applying the right thinking and techniques within an agile

    framework to understand and manage risk.

    @philiplew@xboso, 12017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Meet Your Instructor

    Phil Lew Telecommunications consultant and network

    designer Team Lead, Data warehousing product development Software product manager, BI product COO, large IT services company CEO, XBOSoft, software qa and testing services

    Relevant specialties/Research Software quality process improvement Software usability evaluation Software quality in use / UX design

    @philiplew@xboso, 22017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ButTodayisAllAboutYou

    Whyareyouhere?Whatdoyouwanttolearn?Whatareyoucuriousabout?

    mybosstoldmeto?@philiplew@xboso, 32017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • RiskLessonsAllAroundUsWhatLessonsCanYouFind?

    @philiplew@xboso,

    Manyrisksyoucantseeun0litstoolate.

    42017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • SeRngExpectaVons InteracVve-askquesVons Groupexercises Iwontreadtheslides Slidesforyouasatake-away Exercises

    Yougetwhatyouputin,BeAllInNotthepitcherandglassmethod

    ThisisjustanappeVzer,partofafulldayworkshop

    5@philiplew@xboso,

  • WhatGotUsHere

    Smallerteams FasteriteraVons Listeningtotheuser

    ConVnuousbetaDatacollecVon&analyVcs

    2017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved. 6

    CommunicaVon Workingsmarter Analysis,adapVonandimprovement

    1. Changes in technology (mobile, cloud) 2. Changes in business models 3. Many failures

    @philiplew@xboso,

  • AgileProblems

    ResistancetoChange

    DIstrust

    RequirementsChurn

    FrozenRequirements

    AgileDoingNotBeing

    ProcessInconsistency LackTest

    AutomaVon

    RetrospecVvesNotValuable

    AgileFall

    LackCustomer-User

    Understanding

    AgileFailuresWhy?

    2017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved. 7

    Lets Vote You get to pick the top 3 @philiplew@xboso,

  • AgileSuccess

    ExecuVveSupport

    UserInvolvement

    ScopedValue

    SkilledPlayers

    AgileProcess

    Proficiency

    ClearBusinessObjecVves HighUseof

    AutomaVon

    ConsistentDev,IntegraVonandReleasePracVces

    CollaboraVveBehaviors

    FullFocus

    AgileSuccessWhy?

    2017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved. 8

    Lets Vote You get to pick the top 3 @philiplew@xboso,

  • 2017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved. 9@philiplew@xboso,

  • So4wareQualityandRisk AllCompaniesarebecomingSo,wareCompanies

    So4wareisapartofalmostallvaluechains.

    TechnologyandbusinesscondiVonsmakeconsistentlyprovidingvaluedifficulttoaccomplishwithoutmiVgaVnglargeamountsofrisk.

    @philiplew@xboso, 102017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • IstheSo4wareReadyforRelease?

    AmIdonetesVng? Whatif____? Whatdidweforget? _________ WhataresomewhatifsorquesVonsthatyourbossasks?

    @philiplew@xboso, 112017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • AgendaforToday

    1. Risk,UncertaintyandSo4wareQuality2. RiskandWhereitComesFrom3. AgileandRisk4. RiskMiVgaVonandFrameworks

    @philiplew@xboso, 122017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ProcessVersusQuality Theprocessforbuildingso4wareandtheresulVngso4wareproductareintertwined.

    Wethought(CMMI)thatreliable,repeatableprocessesforbuildingso4wareledtoequallygoodqualityso4wareproduct.

    ThisisnotenVrelytrue.Efficiencyandrepeatabilitydonotequalquality.Why?

    Andneitherdoesvelocity!Whathappenswhenyoudrivetoofast?

    @philiplew@xboso, 132017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Risk,DefectsorLackOf,andQuality So4warequalityiso4enreducedtoso4waretesVngandfindingdefects

    FindingdefectsisseenasaprimaryandsomeVmessoleriskmiVgaVonpracVce.

    Findingdefectsdoesntnecessarilydrivequality,butlinksqualitytotheabsenceofdefects.

    Absenceofdefectsisnotalways=qualityso4waredelivered.

    QualityneedsabroaderdefiniVonasdoesRiskManagement

    @philiplew@xboso, 142017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • RISKFULTHINKINGWhatisriskandwheredoesitcomesfrom?

    @philiplew@xboso, 152017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Exercise:MappingRisks(smallgroups)

    16@philiplew@xboso,

    People

    Product Process

  • TheRealmofSo4wareProjectRisks

    Personnel Shortfalls

    Shortfalls in external components & services

    Real-time performance shortfalls

    Straining Computer Science capabilities

    User cant use it

    Gold Plating

    Developing the wrong features-wrong thing

    Unrealistic schedules

    Unrealistic budget

    Stream of changing requirements

    Software Risk Management, B. Boehm 1989

    People

    Product Process

    17

    Security holes

    @philiplew@xboso,

  • WhereDoesSo4wareRiskComeFrom?

    RiskTechnology

    Product

    Process

    People Context

    Delivery

    Business

    Customers

    @philiplew@xboso, 182017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • TechnologyRisks

    Plarormcantadapttochangingneeds Toohardtoimplement,toocomplicatedwiththisstack

    Doesntintegratewellwithother3rdpartytools

    Cantfindpeoplewhohavetherightskills Whatelseintermsoftechnologyrisks?

    @philiplew@xboso, 192017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ProductRisks

    Deliveredtoolate,1stmoveroreven2ndmoveradvantagedissipated

    Doesntdowhatthecustomer/userwants Tooslow Wemissedthemark,itdoeswhatwewantedbut

    Hardertodothanwethought

    ______

    @philiplew@xboso, 202017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ContextualInfluencersonRisk Projectsize Teammakeup Complexity Timing CompeVVon Marketdemand UserExpectaVons(qualityexpectaVons) Stakeholders Companyhistoryandculture

    Canthesebecontrolledornot?

    @philiplew@xboso, 212017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • System Complexity Factors

    Nature of External Interface Database Size CPU Execution Time Constraints

    Failure Handling Main Storage Constraints

    Development Environment Factors

    Analyst Capability Application Experience Language Experience

    Programmer Capability Development Schedule Experience with Subcontractors

    Consequences of Not Meeting The Quality Requirements

    Loss of Life Loss of Property Performance Degradation

    Loss of Data Interruption of Service Inconvenience

    SystemComplexityFactors

    DevelopmentEnvironmentFactors

    RiskContextualInfluencers

    @philiplew@xboso, 222017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ProcessRisks

    Tooslow Notrepeatable DelicateandFrAgileEasilybroken Notadaptable Notconsistent Toodependentonasuperhero

    @philiplew@xboso, 232017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • DeliveryRisk Risksthataddcostsorstopbusinessrevenuedueto

    delayedlaunchorevencancellaVon. Howmanyofyouhavehadprojectdelays?

    Notenoughpeopletodowhatwepromised,sowedeliverlate

    Gotaslowstartinunderstandingwhatiswanted Hadtomakesomebigunexpectedchangesinthe

    middle Towardstheend,wefoundoutwhatwedeliveredwas

    notexactlywhatwaswanted Harderthanwethought,tookawhile,couldntfigure

    outsomethings.

    @philiplew@xboso, 242017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • DeliveryDelayRisk

    ProjectmanagementanddevelopmentprocessesandtherightfuncVonalitymeanzeroiftheapplicaVonworksunpredictably,isslow,orbreaksdowno4en.

    InaddiVontoon-Vme,on-budgetandon-scopedelivery,businessvalueisgeneratedbythefuncVonalityworkinglikeitshould.

    @philiplew@xboso, 252017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • BusinessRisks

    RisksthatmaketheapplicaVonhardtomaintainandadapttochangingbusinessrequirements

    Lackofagilitythusdamagesfuturebusinessrevenue.Underlyingstructureandarchitecture

    O4enforgouenoroverlooked,why? Toolate,didntgetmarketshare Didntdeveloprightfeaturesforwhatthemarketwanted

    @philiplew@xboso, 262017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • CustomerSaVsfacVonRisks

    Customer/enduserdoesntlike/usewhatwemade

    CustomerisdissaVsfiedwithwhatwedelivered

    Customermiscommunicatedwhattheywanted

    Customerdidntunderstandwhattheywanted

    @philiplew@xboso, 272017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • RISKANDUNCERTAINTY

    SeemsthatEverythingisaRisk!Somearemoreimportantthanothers.

    @philiplew@xboso, 282017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • UncertaintyVersusRisks

    Whatisanuncertainty? Outcomethathasaprobability>0%;

    buthighertherisk. IfP(n)=0,thenitismerelyanuncertainty. WhatuncertainVesinyourprojectdoyouhavethatarenotnecessarilyrisks?Any?

    @philiplew@xboso, 29

  • UncertaintywithPossibleNegaVveOutcomes=Risk

    HowcanweknowtheprobabilityofanegaVveconsequence?

    CanwebecertainP(negaVveoutcome)=0? WhatI'lleattonightisuncertain.Isthatarisk?

    Whatarerisksinyourprojects? WhatarethenegaVveconsequencesifany(P(n)=0)?

    @philiplew@xboso, 30

  • UnderstandingNegaVveConsequences

    SomeVmesyoudontknoworunderstandwhatyouareafraidof,ortryingtoavoid

    TheymaybebiggerthanyouthinkAndcouldevenbeprojectthreatening

    Theymaybesmallerthanyouthink,oreven=0basedonanassumpVonyouoverlooked

    DoyouhaveanyexampleswhenyouoveresVmatedorunderesVmatednegaVveconsequences?

    @philiplew@xboso, 31

  • LetsTalkAboutProbability MostofussubconsciouslyassumeanormaldistribuVonwhenitcomestouncertainty

    Thatiswhatweareusedtowhenweweregivengradesinschool,remember?

    ButwhatarethecharacterisVcsofanormaldistribuVon?

    @philiplew@xboso, 32

  • GradesinSchool

    @philiplew@xboso, 33

  • FatandNarrowTailsMakeaDifference

    @philiplew@xboso, 34

  • FatandNarrowTailsMakeaDifference

    What risks are fat and narrow tailed?

    With a fat tailed risk you can be catastrophically wrong.

    What would be Ruin when it comes to software development?

    @philiplew@xboso, 35

  • WhyItsImportanttoUnderstandNormalandFat

    TradiVonalriskmanagementstrategiesrelyonandassumeanormalbellcurvebutinreality,projectsdon'tbehavethisway.Letslookatthiscloser.

    WhatthingsarenormalandwhattypesofoccurrencesdontfollowanormaldistribuVon?Heightofpeopleintheroom

    @philiplew@xboso, 362017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • NormalExerciseEnVreClass NormaldistribuVonsvaryintheneighborhoodofitsaverage,buthavefewdatapointsbeyond3standarddeviaVonsfromthataverage.

    Doasurveyoftheclassandcalculatetheaverageheightofpeopleintheroomformen,andforwomen.

    Averageheightofmenis510withstandarddeviaVonof4.Chancesofa610manareverysmall.

    @philiplew@xboso, 372017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • FatTailExerciseSmallGroups hup://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=documentary.htm

    CalculatetheaverageandstandarddeviaVonforthesedocumentarymoviesrevenue.

    Whatarethedifferencesyouobservebetweendocumentarymoviesandpeoplesheights?

    Howcanyouapplythistoyourworkindeterminingwhatisariskandnot,whatriskstopayauenVontoandNOT.

    @philiplew@xboso, 382017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • IntheEnd,WeWantto

    Findproblemsearly Findbigproblems Avoidproblemsaltogether

    **ProblemsbynaturehavenegaVveconsequences

    Ourjobistodecreasethisprobability Agilehelpsuswiththis,butweneedtofocusonthoseacVviVeswiththerightviewpointtogainthisinsight

    @philiplew@xboso, 39

  • WhyisProbabilityImportant? ItchangesthewholeconversaVon Whencanyougetthisdone? Dependsonhowmuchriskandcertaintyyouwant

    WhatotherquesVonsdoesyourbossaskthatshouldbeansweredwithaprobabilitydistribuVon?

    40@philiplew@xboso,

  • RiskIsaSeriousProblemProbabiliVesAreNotinOurFavor

    So4wareisincreasinglycomponenVzed,complexanddistributed.

    DevelopmentframeworkseasethecomplexityofcreaVngtheseapplicaVons,butarelimitedinhelpingtesttheapplicaVons.

    OrganizaVonswanttoreducemaintenancecostswhileshorteningprojectlifecyclesviaagilepracVces.

    Riskisnotdecreasing,noristheriskofcatastrophe.

    @philiplew@xboso, 412017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • WhyDoWeIgnoreorForgetRisks

    1. Focusedonvelocity2. FocusedonfuncVonality3. Riskmanagementistooheavy4. KnownoridenVfiedrisksbutnoacVon

    Why do you for

    get or ignore ris

    ks?

    @philiplew@xboso, 422017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • OverconfidenceisNatural Wearenaturallyoverconfident(cogniVvebias)

    OpVmisVcbiasleadsustotakerisksandunderesVmatetheoddsweface

    80%ofsmallbusinessesfailinthefirst18monthsaccordingtoForbesSurveysindicatethatentrepreneursgivethemselvesa60%chanceofsuccess

    Towhatextentwilltheoutcomedependonwhatyoudo?80%

    @philiplew@xboso, 432017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • TendencytoOnlySeeReadilyAvailableEvidence

    Socialandeconomicpressuresfavoroverconfidence

    WetendtohaveanillusionofcontrolWhenweesVmateaquanVty,werelyoninformaVonthatcomestomind

    WeneedtoallowfortheinformaVonthatdoesnotcometomind!

    @philiplew@xboso, 442017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Premortem ToovercomethisoverconfidentopVmisVccogniVvebias,wecanuseapremortem.

    EnablesthosewhohadanyconcernabouttheprojectcanfreelymenVontheconcerns.

    Greatsafeguardagainstgroupthink. Giveteammemberspermissiontobeapessimist.

    @philiplew@xboso, 45

    1. Imagine that a year has passed. 2. Your project has been shown to be an utter

    disaster 3. Briefly explain (write) why it was a disaster.

    2017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Exercise:Pre-Mortem(SmallGroups)

    ObjecVveUsecollecVveexperienceandlearninginthefront-endratherthanback-endofaproject

    NumberofplayersDivideupintogroupsof____

    DuraVon5minutesWhatwillgowrong?Howwillthisendindisaster?

    Visualizethatyouareattheendoftheproject,anditwasacompletefailure.IdenVfywhyitfailed.

    @philiplew@xboso, 46

  • RISKWITHINANAGILEPROCESS

    Letsaddressriskswithintheagileprocess.YoullfindthatanAgileapproachinherentlyletsyouidenVfyandmanagerisks.

    @philiplew@xboso, 472017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • TheConeofUncertainty

    BarryBoehm:esVmatesmaybeoffby4x

    Decisionsdecreaseuncertainty,butnotnecessarily

    Whatcanwelearnfromthis?

    Source: http://www.construx.com/Thought_Leadership/Books/The_Cone_of_Uncertainty/ @philiplew@xboso, 48

  • ConeofLearning Topurposefully

    decreaseuncertaintyandunderstandrisks,weneedtopurposefullylearnanduncoverinformaVon.

    BasedonEdgarDalesConeofLearning

    Fastestpathtolearning,isthroughCollaboraVonandDoingtheRealThing.

    @philiplew@xboso, 49

  • AgileandRisk Withagilemethods,teams

    produceincrementallyusingiteraVons,calledsprints

    EachbuildisplannedoutandprioriVzed,executed,assessed(issuesandimprovement,done/not),withreviewandconVnuousprioriVzaVonasnewthingscomeup.

    Ateachstep/phase/acQvityintheagileprocessyoucanfocusonwhatyoulearnedandspecificriskviewpointsandmiQgaQonacQons.

    @philiplew@xboso, 502017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • 2017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved. 51

    OneoftheMainAgileFlavors:Scrum1 2

    3

    @philiplew@xboso,

  • RisksDuringAgileExerciseorNot:Listoutrisksthatyoumayencounter;whatcouldgowrongduringeachphase?1. Duringthebeginning-planning&product

    management2. Duringthesprint3. DuringtheretrospecVve

    @philiplew@xboso, 522017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

    Break up in small groups and list out the risks

  • ProductManagement(1)Risk MiQgaQon

    Deliverydelay DrivetowardsesVmaVngaccurately. AlignexpectaVonsandwhatcanandcannotbe

    deliveredinplanningmeeVng. Dontoverpromise

    EventhoughtheapplicaVonworks,itdoesntworkasitwasintendedtodo.

    Reviewbackloguserstoriestoensureyouunderstandthemfully.

    Scopecreep EvaluateexisVngbacklog,newitems,add/deleteandtradeout.

    Personnelloss Ensurefullstackteamwithcrossdisciplinaryskills

    Forgouenoroverlookedrisk WhendevelopingthebacklogexplicitlyasktoidenVfythepotenValproblems.

    @philiplew@xboso, 532017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ProductManagement(2)Risk MiQgaQon

    ApplicaVonhardtomaintainandadapttochangingbusinessrequirements-poorunderlyingstructureandarchitecture

    InthesprintplanningmeeVngcovermorethanwhatisimmediate(todo). Howwillthisfeaturebeimplementedwithinour

    exisVngarchitecture? AreouresVmatesthequickanddirtymethod

    (increasingdebt)orcanwedoitabeuerway?

    Forgouenoroverlooked

    Interviewthosethatarenotpartoftheplanningexercise.

    IdenVfytheknowableriskswhengeneraVngtheiniValbacklog.

    BuildmiVgaVonforrisksintothedefiniVonofdone. Generatestoriesforlesscommonrisksandaddthem

    tothebacklog. Reviewriskswhengroomingstories AllocateVmeduringplanningtoidenVfyemerging

    risks.@philiplew@xboso, 542017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Risk MiQgaQon

    PlanningtakestoomuchVmeandthereforedoesntgetdone,ordonewell/completely.

    EnsureaclearprioriVzaVonprocess Ensurethatplanningandgroomingsessionshave

    clearoutput

    EsVmaVonprocessisnotclear,notstandardandnotorientedtowardimprovement

    EnsureclearacceptancecriteriawithintheuserstoryandthedefiniVonofdone.

    Stakeholderssay,Ididntknowthatordontofficiallyapprove.

    DevelopguidelinesfordocumentaVon,trackingandreporVngtoallowvisibilityandtransparencyofallprojectaspects

    DelaysduetowhodecidesastheulVmateauthorityonafeature-orotherdecision

    Setupguidelinesforagilemovement,fordecisionmakingifsomeoneishitbythebus

    ProductManagement(3)

    @philiplew@xboso, 552017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Sprint(1)Risk MiQgaQon

    TesVngincomplete,orrushedattheend

    Implementtestdrivendevelopment IncludetesVnginthedefiniVonofdone

    DemonstraVonsattheendofthesprintnotconclusive(doneornot?)

    InsufficientintegraVon,orintegraVontoolate

    Reviewstoriestoensureacceptancecriteriaareclear

    DefiniVonofdoneincludestesVng DefiniVonofdoneincludesintegraVon Makeuserstoriesdone/acceptancecriteriaclear APIautomatedtesVng

    Wedeliverproductandfindoutwehavesomesecurityandperformanceissueswhichrequirearchitecturalchanges

    Definemeasurementsformanyviewpointsonimprovement,notjustvelocity.Maintainvelocityandfocusonform.

    PeriodicallytestnonfuncVonalrequirementsaspartofdefiniVonofdone.

    IncludeperformancecriteriaindefiniVonofdone PerformancegeRngworse

    andworse,worksbutveryslow

    ImplementperformancetesVngcriteriaandscenariotesVngformostcommonuserscenarios

    @philiplew@xboso, 562017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Sprint(2)Risk MiQgaQon

    RisksinthequalityofadeliveredapplicaVon.EventhoughtheapplicaVonworks,itdoesntworkaswellasitshould. Maintainability UsabilityTherefore,cannotfulfillwhatitwasintendedtodo.

    DefiniVonofdoneincludessomelevelofpredefinednon-funcVonaltesVng,wherecomparisonsaredoneincluding: Codereviews HeurisVcandobservaVonalusabilitytesVng

    beforeitsALLdone,alongtheway

    @philiplew@xboso, 572017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Risk MiQgaQon-ItemstoExamine

    Risksforgouenorunknown Gatherriskdatathoughsurveyswhentheprogramstakeholdersaregeographicallydiverse.

    InterviewcustomersorpotenValcustomers.

    FeatureturnedouttoohardtoimplementortooktoomuchVme

    AskthesequesVons: Howwasthefeatureimplemented?Didwemakeit

    harderthanweneededto? Didwemakeanyarchitecturedecisionsfrombefore

    thatimpededthisfeature Istheunderlyingstructureandarchitectureableto

    meetfutureneeds

    Scopecreep Examineunplannedwork,checkesVmates

    Personnelloss Reviewissuescreatedduetolackofskillsorpeople

    RetrospecVve(1)

    @philiplew@xboso, 582017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Risk MiQgaQon

    Deliveredwhatwecould,butdidaworkaround

    Developauserstorytodoittomatchwithoverallarchitecture

    ExamineexisVngarchitectureToodifficulttoimplementafuncVon,tookmuchlongerthanwethought

    WalkthroughdesignconsideraVonsonperiodicbasis

    Ensureteamskillsareuptopar EnsurecleardefiniVonofdone Fortoughfeatures,increasecollaboraVonregardingdetaileddesign

    ExamineesVmaVngerrorsIntegraVontoolate,productdidntworktogether,justpieces

    DefineandimplementconVnuousintegraVonprocess

    Integratedaily

    RetrospecVve(2)

    @philiplew@xboso, 592017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Risk MiQgaQon

    Lackofperformance,loadandsecuritytesVngunVltheend

    Buildinnon-funcVonaltesVngasauserstoryforperiodicexecuVon,i.e.once/month

    Didntgetdone! DefinecollaboraVonVmesandmethodsforreviewingrequests,stories,pointsofclarificaVon,feedbackontherequestandrecommendedpathforward.

    CustomernotsaVsfiedwiththefeaturealthoughwedidwhathesaid/intheuserstory

    ReviewuserstoriesforambiguityandcompletenessLimitedAssumpVonsandresponsibiliVesareambiguousUserstoriesdonecriteriainsufficient

    Toomuchstuffinthesprint,didntfinish,manythingsaddedinduringthesprint

    Definemethodandlogictoadd/subtractfromthesprintduringthesprint

    RetrospecVve(3)

    @philiplew@xboso, 602017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Risk MiQgaQon

    RetrospecVvenotheldorwasnotproducVve

    Ledbyanindependentfacilitator,couldbeanotherteamorexecuVve

    Heldinasafeplacequiet,notdisturbed NotawitchhuntFocusonprocessrather

    thanpeople PlantheeventsendoutnotesonpotenVal

    problemstogetpeoplethinking Havetherightpeopleinvolved Recordresultsinopenarea,allocateand

    monitoracVons

    RetrospecVve(4)

    @philiplew@xboso, 612017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Retro(5)Risk MiQgaQon

    ConfusionofrolesandresponsibiliVes,somethingisforgouenorfallsofftheplatethatwasimportant

    InsVllPrimaryownership,evenwith2team-mates

    AnalyzeitemsthatfelloffpreviouslytodetermineesVmaVonerrors

    Examineallunplannedwork-Necessary?Timecrunchattheend,notenoughVmetogetdone

    InsVllindailystandups-addressdelays

    Cantdeliverwhatwethought,toocomplexorwedidntunderstandwellenough

    DailystandupsaddressesVmatedpointsforastory,re-assessandsplitup

    Forincreasedstorypoints,productownerfeedbackrequired

    @philiplew@xboso, 622017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • DIDYOUSEEANYRISKSTHATYOUIDENTIFIEDINYOURPRE-MORTEM?

    @philiplew@xboso, 632017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • RISKMANAGEMENT

    NowthatweveidenVfiedrisks,whatdowedowiththem?

    @philiplew@xboso, 642017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ClassicalRiskManagement

    IdenVfy Evaluate PrioriVzeandplan

    MiVgate

    Thereareevenstandardsononriskmanagement.

    RiskManagementPlanning

    RiskAssessment

    RiskMiQgaQon

    Monitor&ReviewRisks

    @philiplew@xboso, 652017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • HeavyStuff

    @philiplew@xboso, 662017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • High

    Participation

    Low Informal

    Formality Highly

    Structured

    TheRiskofTooMuchRiskManagement

    FormalriskmanagementprocessesareheavierandmayhavelessparVcipaVon.

    @philiplew@xboso, 672017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • IssuesinManagingRisk

    1. Whatcanyoucontrolandwhatcanyounot?2. Whatcanyouprepareforandwhatnot?3. Whatshouldyouprepareforandwhatnot?4. Whatelse?

    @philiplew@xboso, 682017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • RISKMITIGATIONMODELSANDAPPROACHES

    IdenVfy,evaluateandprioriVze

    @philiplew@xboso, 692017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ARiskPrioriVzaVonExample

    Mortgage bonds @philiplew@xboso, 702017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • SimpleRiskPrioriVzaVonSchema

    RISK PROFILE

    Like

    lihoo

    d

    Low

    Low

    Medium Impact

    Med

    ium

    High

    Hig

    h

    @philiplew@xboso, 712017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • RiskPrioriVzaVonScheme2

    @philiplew@xboso, 722017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • Risk Census Example

    Risk ProbabilityofRiskSizeofLoss

    (Days)Risk

    exposure

    FeatureasimplementeddoesntsaVsfythecustomer/user,mustdooveragainorrevise

    20% 15 3

    Historicaldataaccessandqualityofdata 30% 20 6Chosendevelopmentplarorm,lackofinternalskillsandhardtofindpeople

    50% 20 10

    Workaroundsusedbutsacrificelongtermviabilityandflexibility

    60% 60 36

    Crunchedattheend.OnlygotdonehalfofthetesVng 90% 15 4.5

    Performancecriterianotmetatdelivery 20% 30 6

    PoorcommunicaVonswithoff-shoreteam(Vmedifference)

    40% 5 2

    Totalexposure 67.5

    @philiplew@xboso, 732017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • PrioriQzed

    Risk

    DescripQon

    Probability

    Severity

    Exposure(PXS)

    TriggerDate

    (DaterequiringacQon

    )

    MiQgaQonPlan

    Owner

    1

    Wedontknowifthedesignmethod

    andfeatureimplementaVonisrightunVltoo

    lateintheproject

    50-50(Medium)

    High

    (M,H)

    July14

    DevelopalternaVvesand1.discusstechnicaldifficulVes2.

    PresentopVonstothecustomer.

    John

    2

    IntegraVontakestoolong

    Low

    High

    (L,H)

    Aug21

    Monitor

    integraVonVme,difficultyanderrorsforeach

    build

    Phil

    3

    4

    RiskMiVgaVonTable

    @philiplew@xboso, 742017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ExercisePutYourPre-MortemorTop10IdenVfiedRisksintotheGrid

    PrioriQzed

    Risk

    DescripQon

    Probability

    Severity

    Exposure(PXS)

    TriggerDate

    (DaterequiringacQon

    )

    MiQgaQonPlan

    Owner

    1

    2

    3

    @philiplew@xboso, 752017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • RiskBurnDown

    Createariskburn-downchartusingthesumoftheriskexposurevaluesfromthecensus.

    @philiplew@xboso, 762017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • AttheEndoftheDay

    Risks Own

    Agreeand

    accepttodo

    nothing

    Eliminatedor

    avoided

    Probabilityorimpactreduced

    MiVgate

    @philiplew@xboso, 772017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • SummaryManageRiskWithTheEndinMind

    So4wareQuality Tomanageriskinourso4wareprojects,wemustconsiderthequality(orlackof[risk])fromallviewpointsandblindspots

    TakeadvantageofallthecollaboraVon,checksandbalanceswithintheagileprocesstobuildmiVgaVonwithinyouragileprocessateachstep Reviewthecoursebeforetherace Learnateachstepandreviewwithriskmindset

    Keepyoureyeontheball So4wareQuality@philiplew@xboso, 782017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

  • ThanksQuesVonsandAnswers

    Philip Lew [email protected]

    Some resources: http://www.xbosoft.com/knowledge_center/

    www.xbosoft.com @philiplew@xboso,

    Are You Standing on Solid Ground?

    792017XBOSo4,Inc.-AllRightsReserved.

    Slides will be posted on slideshare. Follow XBOSoft on LinkedIn and be notified.