Audit | Tax | Advisory

Managing in uncertaintyPesh Framjee – Head of Not for Profits Crowe Clark Whitehill

Manage the present

Create the future

Boxes - Boxes - Boxes

Selectively abandon the past

The one constant is change

the status quo is not really an option

Known and unknown

Too much conjecture and crystal ball gazing on all the downside risks.

The reality is that we do not know what the reality will be But it is important to be prepared and think carefully of

the implications on your organisations

Managing Risk and uncertainty

What is the level of exposure to uncertainties that ACORD must understand and effectively manage as it achieves its objectives and creates value

Change issues need to be addressed Remember that risk aversion can lead to missed

opportunitiesYou must consider both opportunities and threats

No action is not really the best option

Managing the understanding

Uncert

ainty

and c

hang

e

Recognised risks and opportunities

Gap

Look beyond the obvious -

consider both direct

and indirect and short and long

term implications

Identify Options Response

Early thinking stage Making strategic choices Taking action

• Monitor and evaluate• Change management • People and culture• Nimble and flexible • Forward thinking • Knowledge not data • Lessons learned

• SWOTs and PESTs• Structures and Models • Scenarios and forecasts• Warning signs / alerts• Identifying anomalies • Analysis and

interpretation

• The right people• Key uncertainties• Direct and indirect• Short and long term • Risk and opportunities• Peers and partners • Competitors

Managing Brexit

Organisational, sector, national and international context

Do you have the right people doing the right thing in the right place at the right time

Strategic thinking

The strategy must be able to deal with uncertainty Predicting the probable is difficult Tactics have to be developed on the premise that several

different outcomes are possible.

 the task of setting priorities remain as difficult as ever, matching the demands to satisfy short term needs

against pressure for the resources required to achieve long term solutions.

Scenario planning

Scenarios are not forecasts Avoid being too simplistic Monitor and build in triggers for action Requires many perspectives Engage with a diverse team across functions

The aim of a successful scenario planning process is not whether it accurately predicts the future but rather that it should enable the organisation to learn, adapt and take effective and timely action by preparing it for what might

happen in the future

Some funding / financing trends

• Prefinancing

• Contracts/Payment by results

• Venture philanthropy

• Corporate partnerships

• Impact investing

• Lending

• Social impact bonds

Looking ahead

Even more scrutiny and regulation

Greater demands for transparency and accountability

Consequences of changing funding environment

More strategic alliances and greater collaboration

Improved cost effectiveness and an understanding of cost base

Some questions

How do we remain relevant and coherent Does strategy need to change? Are structures fit for purpose? What is the impact on budgets and forecasts? How will our reserves and cash management be

impacted? How do we stay on track? What about operating frameworks?

What are the skills and competencies that are required

and

How does the board and management need to respond

So what are others doing?

Recognise that status quo is not a valid option

Improve – the management of knowledge, performance and risk

Look for missed opportunities

Broaden the income base

Revisiting governance structures – nimble and agile

Collaborative working, strategic alliances and mergers

Revisiting strategy

Lasting change

Further information Pesh Framjee Head of Non ProfitsCrowe Clark WhitehillSt Bride’s House10 Salisbury SquareLondon EC4Y 8EHPesh.framjee@crowecw.co.uk

@crowecw

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