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Mali: the hot season is coming –By Baz LecocqMarch 30, 2012
As the hot season approaches,the population of Northern Malifaces real danger from foodinsecurity and drought.
It’s the end of March. Iwalan, the hot season, has started in Northern Mali.I’m not talking about politics now, I’m simply talking about temperatures
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(in the shade) of over 45°Celcius / 110°Fahrenheit. The first time I everspent the hot season in the Sahara, I learned how to drink two litres ofwater in under a minute, and how to eat: a lot, and heavy. Your bodyneeds the energy to keep cool under the onslaught of a heat that does noteven go below body temperature at night, when you lie outside in themiddle of your roof terrace, trying to sleep, praying for a gust of wind. Ifyou don’t eat enough, the feverish feeling you have the whole timebecause your body has trouble keeping itself on a stable 37°C will becomea real fever, you fall sick.
This year, there is no food surplus and no pasture left to sustain peopleand herds through the heat in Northern Mali, and in many places the wellsdry out quicker than they should, so drinking will soon be difficult too.Those who have not already fled the fighting in early January will have avery hard time getting out now, if they have any time at all. The droughtof recent years is building up to a hunger season that could well become afamine on a disastrous scale.
Back in Bamako, a group of half literate NCOs (really, their diction inreading their own communiqués is a disgrace) was whining about a lack ofmaterial to fight the MNLA. I still don’t understand their main complaintthat led them to try to destroy democracy in Mali. In the last years, theMalian government has spent millions on the purchase of fighter jets,helicopter gunships, and armoured vehicles. If there was one thing notlacking, it was equipment to fight with, only perhaps the skills to handle itand, thankfully enough, the political will to use them blindly. It doesn’tmatter at this moment – the soldiers are too busy rewriting theconstitution to fight the MNLA. Whatever position you want to take on thepolitical side of the matter, however you want to interpret the illegitimacyof it all, one fact remains: Mali has no effective government at themoment, and the administration is in shambles. The sacking of thecustoms offices (happy smugglers?) is but one example.
The MNLA might be the only winner in this situation. They certainly tookadvantage of the chaos, advancing a bit further south in the Azawad,reinforcing their position. Now they have launched their attack on Kidalfrom the southeast, while Ansar ud-Din comes from the north, and it lookslike they are winning. According to some comments from Malians onMalijet.com, the garrison has left Timbuktu already. Ansar ud-Din holdsboth Aguelhoc and Tessalit (with its important airbase, sometimes used byUSAF) and has started to ‘apply sharia law’. We can only guess what thatmeans, but most Tuareg see it as a dangerous development because, who
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knows, maybe Ansar ud-Din likes the whole idea of takfir too, and thenwhere would everybody be?
The trigger happy NCOs of the Malian Army are now too busy trying tolegitimize their coup to even think of fighting the rebels, but when they doget round to it, they will discover that without the leadership of thegenerals they have arrested in Gao they won’t get far. And iwalan isagainst them. If you think Bamako is hot in April, try Kidal in a shady noonaround 50°C/130°F. The fighters of the MNLA are used to it. They takepride in being able to fight on less than three litres of water a day. Theconscripts of the Malian Armed Forces from their side won’t be able tosustain any effort in the hot season; we know that from previous conflicts.Chances of a quick Malian military victory will now be slimmer than theyalready were, the conflict will be prolonged.
Regardless of who is fighting who and why – the Malian Army, the MNLA,or Ansar ud-Din – prolonged fighting means prolonged insecurity and thusprolonged delays in relief aid coming into Northern Mali. Not all inhabitantsof The North are seasoned Tuareg warriors. Regardless of ethnicbackground – Songhay, Tuareg or Arab – the hot season will certainlytake its toll, a toll already predicted to be higher than usual given thedrought, and now likely to become even higher. According to wellinformed journalist sources, the International Red Cross has been unableso far to establish working contacts with the MNLA to coordinate relief aid,and for the moment there seems to be no one in Bamako who couldanswer their calls either.
Drought and food shortages, plus continued fighting and insecurity in theNorth, plus no government in Bamako, is no way for anyone to effectivelyhelp the victims of drought and fighting internally in Mali. Perhaps we’llsoon see skin clad skeletons burying skin clad skeletons again on TV. Lastyear Somalia, now Mali. This, I think, should be the main concern whenthinking about Mali right now.
Baz Lecocq Lectures African History at Gent University
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