Mahfuzuddin Ahmed Director Policy, Economics, and Social Sciences WorldFish Center, Penang
45
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners TRENDS & PROSPECTS FOR AQUACULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN CHANGING GLOBAL MARKETS Mahfuzuddin Ahmed Director Policy, Economics, and Social Sciences WorldFish Center, Penang FAME Workshop, University Of Southern Denmark June 2005
description
TRENDS & PROSPECTS FOR AQUACULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN CHANGING GLOBAL MARKETS. Mahfuzuddin Ahmed Director Policy, Economics, and Social Sciences WorldFish Center, Penang. FAME Workshop, University Of Southern Denmark June 2005. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Mahfuzuddin Ahmed Director Policy, Economics, and Social Sciences WorldFish Center, Penang
Click to add titlepeople Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
TRENDS & PROSPECTS FOR AQUACULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN CHANGING GLOBAL MARKETS
Mahfuzuddin Ahmed
WorldFish Center, Penang
FAME Workshop, University
Of Southern Denmark
June 2005
Title master slide. Cover Slide where title of presentation is placed.
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Presentation Outline
Role of Environmental Practices & Policies in Aquaculture
Role of International Trade & Trade Policies
Aquaculture R & D
Introduction
1.1 billion live with <US$1.08/day; 2.7 billion below US$2.15 per day
32% South Asians and 49% Sub-Saharan Africans live with less than US$1.00 a day
68% of absolute poor lives in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
Some 800 million people are suffering from hunger and malnutrition, which remains one of the most devastating tragedies in Asia and Africa
39%
29%
10%
Introduction
Fish Processing
Women & children
Livelihood strategy:
Probably supports over 200 million people worldwide
Of these, majority are poor, living in pockets of poverty in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific
Landless fish workers and artisanal fishers are among the poorest of the poor
Engine for economic growth and export benefits to developing countries
From -
To -
Introduction
Nearly half of it shared by the developing countries
LIFDCs share of trade greater than 20%
Fish gone Global
Fish paying for growing food imports in LIFDCS
Fish export is nearly 45% of food imports
Chart1
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World
LIFDCs
Developed
Developing
Year
TRENDS IN FISH TRADE (EXPORT) BY DIFFERENT COUNTRY CATEGORIES, 1961-2001
1253706
89450
975053
278653
1496554
111691
1117922
378632
1523133
117478
1130531
392602
1811236
195138
1280373
530863
1999984
189959
1444620
555364
2224080
225174
1562539
661541
2198898
222212
1544829
654069
2274244
233760
1565195
709049
2538429
297683
1742966
795463
3014952
369905
1991027
1023925
3434891
450331
2258328
1176563
4136993
599270
2776490
1360503
5552944
852827
3850616
1702328
5989999
871532
4112469
1877530
6290026
988793
4082052
2207974
7889038
1427835
4978665
2910373
9553383
1648296
5887657
3665726
11843405
2075137
7217415
4625990
14266849
2562826
8540507
5726342
15384207
2831013
9212744
6171463
15971186
3085672
9328849
6642337
15471617
3055929
8814699
6656918
15839271
3210315
9095548
6743723
16128337
3268348
9033788
7094549
17073365
3467450
9651798
7421567
22768285
4938297
12568480
10199805
27869378
6133627
15286655
12582723
31717058
7119157
17235336
14481722
31671181
6839304
17063352
14607829
35696036
7426126
20246300
15449736
38901635
8058543
21299628
17602007
40423071
8556485
21963645
18459426
41443135
9510967
21316275
20126860
47560563
11179893
23770060
23790503
51925125
12256151
25664431
26260694
52934107
12363763
26809921
26124186
53607803
12625589
26161032
27446771
51346258
11755691
26240304
25105954
52893700
11696202
27728207
25165493
55447377
12932340
27337172
28110205
55949318
12872261
27819739
28129579
Trend
Trends in Fish Trade (Export) by Different Country Categories, 1961-2001
Fish & Fishery Prod Tot
***LIFDCS: Calculated manually using FAO Statistics website
Trend
World
LIFDCs
Developed
Developing
Year
TRENDS IN FISH TRADE (EXPORT) BY DIFFERENT COUNTRY CATEGORIES, 1961-2001
LIFDCs
Value (US$'000)
FOOD IMPORT AND FISH EXPORT IN LOW INCOME FOOD DEFICIT FISH PRODUCING COUNTRIES
2642776
89450
2624176
111691
2971245
117478
3433275
195138
3433141
189959
3674051
225174
3722052
222212
3419062
233760
3105948
297683
3589522
369905
3751778
450331
4153936
599270
6762152
852827
10590205
871532
11381450
988793
10486704
1427835
11918894
1648296
14460423
2075137
16626647
2562826
21033859
2831013
23706788
3085672
21686420
3055929
20215832
3210315
19686413
3268348
18366125
3467450
16587397
4938297
17021760
6133627
20573826
7119157
22457334
6839304
22496808
7426126
20616735
8058543
25930122
8556485
24152989
9510967
28270053
11179893
37959018
12256151
39667755
12363763
35816235
12625589
36945894
11755691
37984374
11696202
36364340
12932340
37442066
12872261
39525383
47152367
foodafrica
1961
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1989
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1991
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1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Value (US$'000)
FOOD IMPORT AND FISH EXPORT IN LOW INCOME FOOD DEFICIT FISH PRODUCING COUNTRIES
SA-food import
SOUTH ASIA
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Value of fish export higher than meat, all cereals combined, and all beverages combined
Highest Share for Fish in Major Agricultural Commodity Trade
FISH ONE OF THE BIGGEST TRADE STORIES
Introduction
Slide master. Basic template with logo, tagline and background embedded for presentation.
Chart1
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Meat
Meat
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (1998-2002)
37.7
33.9
30.2
28.3
33.3
24.7
21.4
19.4
22.4
21.1
39.5
36.7
35.4
36
37.8
41
41.2
41.8
43.7
44.5
27.5
26.1
26.2
27.6
26.7
47.1
41.6
39.6
40.5
45.7
51.2
53.1
55.4
55.9
60
Sheet1
Products
Billion
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
37.7
33.9
30.2
28.3
33.3
Sugar
24.7
21.4
19.4
22.4
21.1
Cereals
39.5
36.7
35.4
36
37.8
Meat
41
41.2
41.8
43.7
44.5
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (1998-2002)
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart1
Sugar
Cereals
Meat
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (2002)
33.3
21.1
37.8
44.5
26.7
45.7
60
Sheet1
Products
2002
33.3
Sugar
21.1
Cereals
37.8
Meat
44.5
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (2002)
Sheet2
Sheet3
$ Fish > $ Rice + $ Coffee
Introduction
Slide master. Basic template with logo, tagline and background embedded for presentation.
Chart1
1994
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Rice
Coffee
Fish
Year
425
328
484
530
596
513
855
420
504
871
498
763
1020
594
822
1025
585
942
667
500
1484
625
391
1783
726
322
2000
727
330
2300
Sheet1
Value of exports in US$ million
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Rice
429
549
855
870
1024
1025
638
588
Coffee
328
495
337
491
594
585
440
385
Fish
551
620
651
781
858
971
1475
1800
Petroleum
866
1024
1346
1413
1232
2092
3500
3175
Rice
220
268
285
245
273
227
184
166
Coffee
1853
2475
1410
1261
1555
1215
600
423
Petroleum
125
134
155
148
101
141
205
187
Sheet2
Sheet3
Recent Years
429
328
551
549
495
620
855
337
651
870
491
781
1024
594
858
1025
585
971
638
440
1475
588
385
1800
Sheet1
Value of exports in US$ million
1994
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1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Rice
429
549
855
870
1024
1025
638
588
Coffee
328
495
337
491
594
585
440
385
Fish
551
620
651
781
858
971
1475
1800
Petroleum
866
1024
1346
1413
1232
2092
3500
3175
Rice
220
268
285
245
273
227
184
166
Coffee
1853
2475
1410
1261
1555
1215
600
423
Petroleum
125
134
155
148
101
141
205
187
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
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0
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0
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0
0
0
Rice
Coffee
Fish
Petroleum
Year
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
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0
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0
Sheet2
Sheet3
Introduction
Chart1
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
%food fish
prices
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Saharan Africa: 323
South Asia: 432
Latin America: 55.6
povertyline
1985
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Developed
Developing
Percentage
1985
Capture
Culture
Total
Capture
Culture
Poultry Meat
Change in the number of people living below US$1/day between 1987-1998.
Number (millions)
Sub-Saharan Africa
-60.4
-150.4
Number (millions)
Number (millions)
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
Most likely (baseline)
Faster Aquaculture Expansion
Slower Aquaculture Expansion
27618
28323
27053
23872
World
130112
144478
119050
108158
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
1973
China
4,947
29,192
0
0
0
1973
0
0
0
1997
0
0
0
2020
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
ProductsGrowth Trend
199819992000Positive (+)/Negative (-)
Cereals39.93635.8
Billion
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Beverage
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet1
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
Products
Billion
44.9
32.4
31.6
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart3
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
%food fish
prices
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Saharan Africa: 323
South Asia: 432
Latin America: 55.6
povertyline
1985
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Developed
Developing
Percentage
1985
Capture
Culture
Total
Capture
Culture
Poultry Meat
Change in the number of people living below US$1/day between 1987-1998.
Number (millions)
Sub-Saharan Africa
-60.4
-150.4
Number (millions)
Number (millions)
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
Most likely (baseline)
Faster Aquaculture Expansion
Slower Aquaculture Expansion
27618
28323
27053
23872
World
130112
144478
119050
108158
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
1973
China
4,947
29,192
0
0
0
1973
0
0
0
1997
0
0
0
2020
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
ProductsGrowth Trend
199819992000Positive (+)/Negative (-)
Cereals39.93635.8
Billion
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Beverage
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet1
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
Products
Billion
44.9
32.4
31.6
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart4
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
%food fish
prices
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Saharan Africa: 323
South Asia: 432
Latin America: 55.6
povertyline
1985
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Developed
Developing
Percentage
1985
Capture
Culture
Total
Capture
Culture
Poultry Meat
Change in the number of people living below US$1/day between 1987-1998.
Number (millions)
Sub-Saharan Africa
-60.4
-150.4
Number (millions)
Number (millions)
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
Most likely (baseline)
Faster Aquaculture Expansion
Slower Aquaculture Expansion
27618
28323
27053
23872
World
130112
144478
119050
108158
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
1973
China
4,947
29,192
0
0
0
1973
0
0
0
1997
0
0
0
2020
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
ProductsGrowth Trend
199819992000Positive (+)/Negative (-)
Cereals39.93635.8
Billion
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Beverage
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet1
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
Products
Billion
44.9
32.4
31.6
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet2
Sheet3
(kg/cap)
WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Growing share of aquaculture to the total food fish production
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Low value food fish from aquaculture is expected to surpass the capture fisheries in the future
WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Production (thousand metric tons)
Production of Low-Value Food Fish from Capture and Aquaculture in Developing World 1973-97 and 2020
12871
1321
16552
4129
22942
16511
26235
31367
Sheet1
1973
1985
1997
2020
capture
12871
16552
22942
26235
aquaculture
1321
4129
16511
31367
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
capture
aquaculture
Year
Production (thousand metric tons)
Production of Low-Value Food Fish from Capture and Aquaculture, 1973-97 and 2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet2
1973
1985
1997
2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
Putting Aquaculture in Context
WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Developing countries continue to dominate food fish production with a high proportion in aquaculture
27%
73%
21%
79%
20%
80%
23%
77%
22%
78%
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Ahmed and Lorica, 2002
WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Aquaculture has grown faster and become more important in low income food deficit countries (LIFDC)
Chart3
Bangladesh
India
China
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
66
45
59
16
18
33
18
Chart2
Bangladesh
India
China
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
13
9
14
-0.8
10
16
5.5
Chart1
Bangladesh
India
China
Share of developing country low value finfish in food aquaculture, 1997
66
45
59
Sheet1
Bangladesh
66
13
India
45
9
China
59
14
Vietnam
33
16
Indonesia
18
5.5
Bangladesh
13
India
9
China
14
Thailand
10
Vietnam
16
Indonesia
5.5
Sheet1
Share of aquaculture in total fish production for selected Asian LIFDCs, 1998
0
0
0
0
0
0
Chart4
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
13
9
14
10
16
5.5
Chart3
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
66
45
59
18
33
18
Chart2
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
13
9
14
10
16
5.5
Chart1
Bangladesh
India
China
Share of developing country low value finfish in food aquaculture, 1997
66
45
59
Sheet1
Bangladesh
66
13
India
45
9
China
59
14
Thailand
18
10
Vietnam
33
16
Indonesia
18
5.5
Bangladesh
13
India
9
China
14
Thailand
10
Vietnam
16
Indonesia
5.5
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Share of aquaculture in total fish production for selected Asian low income food deficit countries, 1998
Annual Growth rate of aquaculture production in selected low income food deficit countries, 1988-1998
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Net Export: Developing World Continue to be Net Exporters, though at a Lower Rate than Presently
Source: Fish to 2020
Outlook to 2020
More Regions in Developing Countries Joining the Rank of Net Importers by 2020
Growing south-south trade
538
Sheet1
1997
538
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Poor to Feel the Pinch of Rising Fish Prices
Outlook to 2020
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Dependence on the wild for species and seedlings for culture
Dependence on fisheries for feeds and feed ingredients
Socio-economic Context
Costs and benefits of the aquaculture enterprise
Domestic and international demand for aquaculture commodities
Legal and Institutional Context
Local
High influence of income on fish consumption and similar nutritious food, though nutritional status may not necessarily improve as income increases
Increasing labor productivity
Increasing consumer awareness and demands
Increasing competition for resources
Concerns in Aquaculture Development
Increasing nutrient and input costs
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Concerns in Aquaculture Development
Use of technology to produce transgenic fish
Social acceptance as an economically viable means of producing much needed high quality food for an ever increasing and hungry population
Market access / barriers in trade
Health and safety issues
LESSONS FROM ASIA
Aquaculture is regarded worldwide as one of the fastest growing food-producing sub-sectors, especially in low-income food deficit (LIFDC) countries
Asia accounted for over 90% of world aquaculture output in 1998, regional production having increased from 14.3 million mt to over 35.8 million mt between 1989 and 1998, equivalent to growth of nearly 11% per year (FAOSTAT, 2003)
Chart3
Bangladesh
India
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
66
45
59
33
18
Chart2
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
13
9
14
10
16
5.5
Chart1
Bangladesh
India
China
Share of developing country low value finfish in food aquaculture, 1997
66
45
59
Sheet1
Bangladesh
66
13
India
45
9
China
59
14
Vietnam
33
16
Indonesia
18
5.5
Bangladesh
13
India
9
China
14
Thailand
10
Vietnam
16
Indonesia
5.5
Sheet1
Share of aquaculture in total fish production for selected Asian LIFDCs, 1998
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
LESSONS FROM ASIA
In Asia, major contributors to aquaculture are small-scale family managed fish farm and subsistence-oriented farmers
Global importance for rural and coastal societies, both in terms of economy and as a means of improving food security for the growing population
Effect of own production on household fish consumption
Moving away from cereals and crop commodity supply
Income and employment effects on poor people, women and children
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
AQUACULTURE’S LINK TO FOOD SECURITY
Figure2: Framework for Analyzing Aquaculture’s Linkages to
Food & Nutritional Security
Ability to earn higher wage or income
High income effect from aquaculture production and sale-profit
High home-consumption
ADOPTION-INCOME LINK
Source: Ahmed et al. (2002) – in press
Higher return to capital from aquaculture
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
FOOD SECURITY THROUGH AQUACULTURE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FROM BANGLADESH
In Bangladesh, nearly half the population suffer from chronic under nutrition
Green revolution overlooked the role of diversified production, employment and income
Role of critical vitamins and minerals in the diet, improvements in sanitation, hygiene and living environment
Improving access to diverse and quality food types
Moving away from cereals and crop commodity supply perspective
Integration of fish and livestock in discussion and debate on food security
Examine aquaculture’s impact to food and nutritional security at the farm and household level
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
ADOPTION – INCOME LINKAGES
Income and purchasing power have a tremendous influence on household demand for food
Income has high influence on fish consumption and other nutritional food
Though, nutritional status may not necessarily improve as income increases
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
INCOME EFFECTS
Source of Income Before Aquaculture After Aquaculture Intervention Intervention
Farm income (excluding fish) 15,747 18,388
Income from fish culture 758 5,053
Off-farm income 10,869 13,884
Total income 27,374 37,325
income (%) 4.6 21.6
income (%) 2.8 13.5
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
ADOPTION – EMPLOYMENT LINKAGES
Household ability to earn income depends on the nutritional health of the household labor
Family labor is an important production factor in developing country agriculture
Ability to earn higher wage or income
Ability to create higher employment
Increase in labor productivity
Lessons from Bangladesh
EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS
Relatively low use of labor in aquaculture compared to crop agriculture
Post-adoption labor/ employment in aquaculture is much higher than pre-adoption
Use of hired labor is also becoming common in aquaculture
Impact of Aquaculture Practices in Employment
Source: Miah (2000)
Lessons from Bangladesh
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS
Wage Rate (Tk/day) of Pond Aquaculture and Agriculture Compared 1998
Source: Thompson et al (2000) & BBS (1999)
Higher return to labor (Tk/day) from technology adoption in aquaculture
Source: Islam (2000)
Lessons from Bangladesh
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)
Sheet3
82
45
62
49
48
38
Sheet1
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)
Sheet3
Activities
Demonstration
Control
82
45
62
49
147
73
48
38
211
155
ADOPTION – CONSUMPTION LINKAGES
Adopting households consume a disproportionately higher amount of fish that are rich in micro-nutrient
Adoption of aquaculture increases market supply that pushes fish prices down
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
CONSUMPTION EFFECTS
Increased access to fish in both rural and urban areas in last five years
higher per capita consumption for producer households compared to non-producers and national average consumption
Price and income elasticity of fish are higher than those of other food items
Consumer demand for fish will increase at a higher rate for income increase and supply increase
Adoption of improved pond management and species composition will direct more fish to on-farm household consumption
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
CONSUMPTION EFFECTS
Comparison of Production and Home Consumption Before and After Adoption of Improved Aquaculture in Kapasia Thana, Bangladesh
Source: 1. Ahmed, et al. 1993 2. Ahmed, et al. 1995
3. Extrapolated estimate by the authors based on the proportion disposed for the consumption.
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)
Sheet3
Activities
Demonstration
Control
82
45
62
49
147
73
48
38
211
155
Period
Production
Aquaculture development: is it a panacea for poverty reduction?
Much of reported increase of aquaculture come from low-income food deficit countries
How much can aquaculture contribute to poverty reduction? There are opportunities as well as constraints
Can the constraints be removed through policy measures and policy actions?
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
ACCESS TO RESOURCES
Access to land is a major impediment for poor
richer people established greater access to land and water that were brought under aquaculture
Liberal government policies encouraged large-scale conversion of public land by the rich
Forced the poor out of common property fish harvest from public water or quasi-private land
Targeted development by NGOs and government have helped poor people access land and water
Flexible technology choices for more intensive use of labor
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
ACCESS TO RESOURCES
Percent distribution of households of some aquaculture
projects by size of land owned in Bangladesh in 1998
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
Sheet1
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)
Sheet3
Activities
Demonstration
Control
Landholding
MAEP
TLFEP
NFEP
82
45
62
49
147
73
48
38
211
155
Role of Environmental Practices and Policies in Aquaculture
Damaging impacts on the ocean and coastal resources
Interactions of escaped fish stocks with wild stocks
Introduction of exotic species
Role of International Trade and Trade Policies in Aquaculture Development
Trade and Market Expansion
significant export orientation and focus on high value species
shift in the balance of trade in fish commodities in favor of developing countries
dependence on few developed country markets such as the EU, USA and Japan
global trade liberalization agenda vs. different forms of non-tariff barriers
resolutions and agreements on market access issues
regulatory measures on health and food safety requirements,
host of other forms of technical barriers to trade
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Role of International Trade and Trade Policies in Aquaculture Development
Trade Policies
Reduction of import tariff and import restrictions
Free trade agreements
Preferential market access
Role of International Trade and Trade Policies in Aquaculture Development
Trade Barriers
Technical barriers
Environmental regulation
Aquaculture R&D: Technology Need & Prospect
Reducing Aquaculture Dependence on Capture Fisheries for Feed
Nearly one-third of the world’s wild caught fish is consumed as aquafeed
As aquaculture trend increases, the pressure on wild fish stock increases
Technology to replace aquafeed with nutritious grains and protein rich oilseed
Remove the dependence of aquaculture on wild stock
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Aquaculture R&D: Technology Need & Prospect
2) Increase Productivity in Aquaculture
Selective breeding of Nile tilapia (o.niloticus) in WorldFish
Selective bred Nile tilapia outperformed the most widely farmed strains of Tilapia in Asia by growth and survival rate
85% growth increase over six generation
Yield improvement of 25-78%, depending on local conditions
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Aquaculture R&D: Technology Need & Prospect
2) Increase Productivity in Aquaculture
Genetic modification for improving quality and quantity of fish
developed strains of genetically modified salmon for potential use in cage aquaculture in China and India
benefits of genetic modification includes:
survival of endangered species
improve the reproductive success
comes with significant controversy and risk
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Conclusion
Challenge for aquaculture is to expand production to meet the future shortfall in fish supplies
Greater need for enforcement mechanisms for sustainable and environmentally safe aquaculture in developing countries
Aquaculture for the Poor
Equal opportunity to the poor to access inputs and market
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Conclusion
Semi-intensive and extensive aquaculture of low value food fish
Mass-production of low-value food fish by small-scale producers
Balancing fish trade for the poor
Greater access to export markets, and fair share of benefits for the poor
Inclusion of small-scale producers and women in trade arrangements
Pro-poor technology and policy support
Credit and infrastructure
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Thank You
and Aquaculture in Developing World
1973-97 and 2020
capture
aquaculture
0
5
10
15
20
BangladeshIndiaChinaThailandVietnamIndonesia
Annual Growth rate of aquaculture production in selected low income food deficit
countries, 1988-1998
for selected Asian LIFDCs, 1998
020406080
Bangladesh
India
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Aquaculture practicesEmployment (manday)
With Without Change
Population living below US$1 per day, millions
(2000)
1961-2001
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001
Year
FOOD IMPORT AND FISH EXPORT IN LOW INCOME FOOD DEFICIT
FISH PRODUCING COUNTRIES
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (1998-2002)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Beverage
Crops
(Cocoa,
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (2002)
12%
8%
14%
17%
10%
17%
22%
CerealsMeat
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Year
for selected Asian LIFDCs, 1998
0
20
40
60
80
Bangladesh
India
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
1973
China
11%
Developing
countries
excluding
China
34%
Developed
countries
55%
2020
Developing
countries
excluding
China
36%
China
41%
Developed
countries
23%
1997
China
36%
Developed
countries
31%
Developing
countries
excluding
China
33%
020406080100120140160
Developed Developing
1997
2020
50
-
538
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other South
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)6249
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)4838
ActivitiesDemonstrationControl
FarmerFarmer
Pond fish production (Fresh water)211155
PeriodProduction% of HomeQuantity Disposed
TRENDS & PROSPECTS FOR AQUACULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN CHANGING GLOBAL MARKETS
Mahfuzuddin Ahmed
WorldFish Center, Penang
FAME Workshop, University
Of Southern Denmark
June 2005
Title master slide. Cover Slide where title of presentation is placed.
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Presentation Outline
Role of Environmental Practices & Policies in Aquaculture
Role of International Trade & Trade Policies
Aquaculture R & D
Introduction
1.1 billion live with <US$1.08/day; 2.7 billion below US$2.15 per day
32% South Asians and 49% Sub-Saharan Africans live with less than US$1.00 a day
68% of absolute poor lives in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
Some 800 million people are suffering from hunger and malnutrition, which remains one of the most devastating tragedies in Asia and Africa
39%
29%
10%
Introduction
Fish Processing
Women & children
Livelihood strategy:
Probably supports over 200 million people worldwide
Of these, majority are poor, living in pockets of poverty in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific
Landless fish workers and artisanal fishers are among the poorest of the poor
Engine for economic growth and export benefits to developing countries
From -
To -
Introduction
Nearly half of it shared by the developing countries
LIFDCs share of trade greater than 20%
Fish gone Global
Fish paying for growing food imports in LIFDCS
Fish export is nearly 45% of food imports
Chart1
1961
1961
1961
1961
1962
1962
1962
1962
1963
1963
1963
1963
1964
1964
1964
1964
1965
1965
1965
1965
1966
1966
1966
1966
1967
1967
1967
1967
1968
1968
1968
1968
1969
1969
1969
1969
1970
1970
1970
1970
1971
1971
1971
1971
1972
1972
1972
1972
1973
1973
1973
1973
1974
1974
1974
1974
1975
1975
1975
1975
1976
1976
1976
1976
1977
1977
1977
1977
1978
1978
1978
1978
1979
1979
1979
1979
1980
1980
1980
1980
1981
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
1984
1984
1984
1984
1985
1985
1985
1985
1986
1986
1986
1986
1987
1987
1987
1987
1988
1988
1988
1988
1989
1989
1989
1989
1990
1990
1990
1990
1991
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
World
LIFDCs
Developed
Developing
Year
TRENDS IN FISH TRADE (EXPORT) BY DIFFERENT COUNTRY CATEGORIES, 1961-2001
1253706
89450
975053
278653
1496554
111691
1117922
378632
1523133
117478
1130531
392602
1811236
195138
1280373
530863
1999984
189959
1444620
555364
2224080
225174
1562539
661541
2198898
222212
1544829
654069
2274244
233760
1565195
709049
2538429
297683
1742966
795463
3014952
369905
1991027
1023925
3434891
450331
2258328
1176563
4136993
599270
2776490
1360503
5552944
852827
3850616
1702328
5989999
871532
4112469
1877530
6290026
988793
4082052
2207974
7889038
1427835
4978665
2910373
9553383
1648296
5887657
3665726
11843405
2075137
7217415
4625990
14266849
2562826
8540507
5726342
15384207
2831013
9212744
6171463
15971186
3085672
9328849
6642337
15471617
3055929
8814699
6656918
15839271
3210315
9095548
6743723
16128337
3268348
9033788
7094549
17073365
3467450
9651798
7421567
22768285
4938297
12568480
10199805
27869378
6133627
15286655
12582723
31717058
7119157
17235336
14481722
31671181
6839304
17063352
14607829
35696036
7426126
20246300
15449736
38901635
8058543
21299628
17602007
40423071
8556485
21963645
18459426
41443135
9510967
21316275
20126860
47560563
11179893
23770060
23790503
51925125
12256151
25664431
26260694
52934107
12363763
26809921
26124186
53607803
12625589
26161032
27446771
51346258
11755691
26240304
25105954
52893700
11696202
27728207
25165493
55447377
12932340
27337172
28110205
55949318
12872261
27819739
28129579
Trend
Trends in Fish Trade (Export) by Different Country Categories, 1961-2001
Fish & Fishery Prod Tot
***LIFDCS: Calculated manually using FAO Statistics website
Trend
World
LIFDCs
Developed
Developing
Year
TRENDS IN FISH TRADE (EXPORT) BY DIFFERENT COUNTRY CATEGORIES, 1961-2001
LIFDCs
Value (US$'000)
FOOD IMPORT AND FISH EXPORT IN LOW INCOME FOOD DEFICIT FISH PRODUCING COUNTRIES
2642776
89450
2624176
111691
2971245
117478
3433275
195138
3433141
189959
3674051
225174
3722052
222212
3419062
233760
3105948
297683
3589522
369905
3751778
450331
4153936
599270
6762152
852827
10590205
871532
11381450
988793
10486704
1427835
11918894
1648296
14460423
2075137
16626647
2562826
21033859
2831013
23706788
3085672
21686420
3055929
20215832
3210315
19686413
3268348
18366125
3467450
16587397
4938297
17021760
6133627
20573826
7119157
22457334
6839304
22496808
7426126
20616735
8058543
25930122
8556485
24152989
9510967
28270053
11179893
37959018
12256151
39667755
12363763
35816235
12625589
36945894
11755691
37984374
11696202
36364340
12932340
37442066
12872261
39525383
47152367
foodafrica
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Value (US$'000)
FOOD IMPORT AND FISH EXPORT IN LOW INCOME FOOD DEFICIT FISH PRODUCING COUNTRIES
SA-food import
SOUTH ASIA
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Value of fish export higher than meat, all cereals combined, and all beverages combined
Highest Share for Fish in Major Agricultural Commodity Trade
FISH ONE OF THE BIGGEST TRADE STORIES
Introduction
Slide master. Basic template with logo, tagline and background embedded for presentation.
Chart1
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Sugar
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Meat
Meat
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (1998-2002)
37.7
33.9
30.2
28.3
33.3
24.7
21.4
19.4
22.4
21.1
39.5
36.7
35.4
36
37.8
41
41.2
41.8
43.7
44.5
27.5
26.1
26.2
27.6
26.7
47.1
41.6
39.6
40.5
45.7
51.2
53.1
55.4
55.9
60
Sheet1
Products
Billion
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
37.7
33.9
30.2
28.3
33.3
Sugar
24.7
21.4
19.4
22.4
21.1
Cereals
39.5
36.7
35.4
36
37.8
Meat
41
41.2
41.8
43.7
44.5
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (1998-2002)
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart1
Sugar
Cereals
Meat
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (2002)
33.3
21.1
37.8
44.5
26.7
45.7
60
Sheet1
Products
2002
33.3
Sugar
21.1
Cereals
37.8
Meat
44.5
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (2002)
Sheet2
Sheet3
$ Fish > $ Rice + $ Coffee
Introduction
Slide master. Basic template with logo, tagline and background embedded for presentation.
Chart1
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
Rice
Coffee
Fish
Year
425
328
484
530
596
513
855
420
504
871
498
763
1020
594
822
1025
585
942
667
500
1484
625
391
1783
726
322
2000
727
330
2300
Sheet1
Value of exports in US$ million
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Rice
429
549
855
870
1024
1025
638
588
Coffee
328
495
337
491
594
585
440
385
Fish
551
620
651
781
858
971
1475
1800
Petroleum
866
1024
1346
1413
1232
2092
3500
3175
Rice
220
268
285
245
273
227
184
166
Coffee
1853
2475
1410
1261
1555
1215
600
423
Petroleum
125
134
155
148
101
141
205
187
Sheet2
Sheet3
Recent Years
429
328
551
549
495
620
855
337
651
870
491
781
1024
594
858
1025
585
971
638
440
1475
588
385
1800
Sheet1
Value of exports in US$ million
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Rice
429
549
855
870
1024
1025
638
588
Coffee
328
495
337
491
594
585
440
385
Fish
551
620
651
781
858
971
1475
1800
Petroleum
866
1024
1346
1413
1232
2092
3500
3175
Rice
220
268
285
245
273
227
184
166
Coffee
1853
2475
1410
1261
1555
1215
600
423
Petroleum
125
134
155
148
101
141
205
187
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Rice
Coffee
Fish
Petroleum
Year
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet2
Sheet3
Introduction
Chart1
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
%food fish
prices
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Saharan Africa: 323
South Asia: 432
Latin America: 55.6
povertyline
1985
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Developed
Developing
Percentage
1985
Capture
Culture
Total
Capture
Culture
Poultry Meat
Change in the number of people living below US$1/day between 1987-1998.
Number (millions)
Sub-Saharan Africa
-60.4
-150.4
Number (millions)
Number (millions)
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
Most likely (baseline)
Faster Aquaculture Expansion
Slower Aquaculture Expansion
27618
28323
27053
23872
World
130112
144478
119050
108158
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
1973
China
4,947
29,192
0
0
0
1973
0
0
0
1997
0
0
0
2020
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
ProductsGrowth Trend
199819992000Positive (+)/Negative (-)
Cereals39.93635.8
Billion
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Beverage
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet1
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
Products
Billion
44.9
32.4
31.6
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart3
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
%food fish
prices
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Saharan Africa: 323
South Asia: 432
Latin America: 55.6
povertyline
1985
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Developed
Developing
Percentage
1985
Capture
Culture
Total
Capture
Culture
Poultry Meat
Change in the number of people living below US$1/day between 1987-1998.
Number (millions)
Sub-Saharan Africa
-60.4
-150.4
Number (millions)
Number (millions)
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
Most likely (baseline)
Faster Aquaculture Expansion
Slower Aquaculture Expansion
27618
28323
27053
23872
World
130112
144478
119050
108158
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
1973
China
4,947
29,192
0
0
0
1973
0
0
0
1997
0
0
0
2020
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
ProductsGrowth Trend
199819992000Positive (+)/Negative (-)
Cereals39.93635.8
Billion
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Beverage
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet1
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
Products
Billion
44.9
32.4
31.6
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart4
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
%food fish
prices
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Saharan Africa: 323
South Asia: 432
Latin America: 55.6
povertyline
1985
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Developed
Developing
Percentage
1985
Capture
Culture
Total
Capture
Culture
Poultry Meat
Change in the number of people living below US$1/day between 1987-1998.
Number (millions)
Sub-Saharan Africa
-60.4
-150.4
Number (millions)
Number (millions)
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
Most likely (baseline)
Faster Aquaculture Expansion
Slower Aquaculture Expansion
27618
28323
27053
23872
World
130112
144478
119050
108158
Production of all food fish (aquaculture + capture) under various scenarios, 2020
million metric tons
1973
China
4,947
29,192
0
0
0
1973
0
0
0
1997
0
0
0
2020
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
ProductsGrowth Trend
199819992000Positive (+)/Negative (-)
Cereals39.93635.8
Billion
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Beverage
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet1
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
Products
Billion
44.9
32.4
31.6
Cereals
Cereals
Cereals
Meat
Meat
Meat
Fish
Fish
Fish
1998
1999
2000
Products
Billion $
Value of Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Products (1998-2000)
44.9
32.4
31.6
39.9
36
35.8
41
47.5
48.9
26.7
24.6
25.2
54.9
51.8
46.9
9.3
11.4
13.3
51.2
52.8
55.2
Sheet2
Sheet3
(kg/cap)
WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Growing share of aquaculture to the total food fish production
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Low value food fish from aquaculture is expected to surpass the capture fisheries in the future
WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Production (thousand metric tons)
Production of Low-Value Food Fish from Capture and Aquaculture in Developing World 1973-97 and 2020
12871
1321
16552
4129
22942
16511
26235
31367
Sheet1
1973
1985
1997
2020
capture
12871
16552
22942
26235
aquaculture
1321
4129
16511
31367
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
capture
aquaculture
Year
Production (thousand metric tons)
Production of Low-Value Food Fish from Capture and Aquaculture, 1973-97 and 2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet2
1973
1985
1997
2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
Putting Aquaculture in Context
WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Developing countries continue to dominate food fish production with a high proportion in aquaculture
27%
73%
21%
79%
20%
80%
23%
77%
22%
78%
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Ahmed and Lorica, 2002
WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Aquaculture has grown faster and become more important in low income food deficit countries (LIFDC)
Chart3
Bangladesh
India
China
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
66
45
59
16
18
33
18
Chart2
Bangladesh
India
China
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
13
9
14
-0.8
10
16
5.5
Chart1
Bangladesh
India
China
Share of developing country low value finfish in food aquaculture, 1997
66
45
59
Sheet1
Bangladesh
66
13
India
45
9
China
59
14
Vietnam
33
16
Indonesia
18
5.5
Bangladesh
13
India
9
China
14
Thailand
10
Vietnam
16
Indonesia
5.5
Sheet1
Share of aquaculture in total fish production for selected Asian LIFDCs, 1998
0
0
0
0
0
0
Chart4
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
13
9
14
10
16
5.5
Chart3
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
66
45
59
18
33
18
Chart2
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
13
9
14
10
16
5.5
Chart1
Bangladesh
India
China
Share of developing country low value finfish in food aquaculture, 1997
66
45
59
Sheet1
Bangladesh
66
13
India
45
9
China
59
14
Thailand
18
10
Vietnam
33
16
Indonesia
18
5.5
Bangladesh
13
India
9
China
14
Thailand
10
Vietnam
16
Indonesia
5.5
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Share of aquaculture in total fish production for selected Asian low income food deficit countries, 1998
Annual Growth rate of aquaculture production in selected low income food deficit countries, 1988-1998
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Net Export: Developing World Continue to be Net Exporters, though at a Lower Rate than Presently
Source: Fish to 2020
Outlook to 2020
More Regions in Developing Countries Joining the Rank of Net Importers by 2020
Growing south-south trade
538
Sheet1
1997
538
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Poor to Feel the Pinch of Rising Fish Prices
Outlook to 2020
Putting Aquaculture in Context
Dependence on the wild for species and seedlings for culture
Dependence on fisheries for feeds and feed ingredients
Socio-economic Context
Costs and benefits of the aquaculture enterprise
Domestic and international demand for aquaculture commodities
Legal and Institutional Context
Local
High influence of income on fish consumption and similar nutritious food, though nutritional status may not necessarily improve as income increases
Increasing labor productivity
Increasing consumer awareness and demands
Increasing competition for resources
Concerns in Aquaculture Development
Increasing nutrient and input costs
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Concerns in Aquaculture Development
Use of technology to produce transgenic fish
Social acceptance as an economically viable means of producing much needed high quality food for an ever increasing and hungry population
Market access / barriers in trade
Health and safety issues
LESSONS FROM ASIA
Aquaculture is regarded worldwide as one of the fastest growing food-producing sub-sectors, especially in low-income food deficit (LIFDC) countries
Asia accounted for over 90% of world aquaculture output in 1998, regional production having increased from 14.3 million mt to over 35.8 million mt between 1989 and 1998, equivalent to growth of nearly 11% per year (FAOSTAT, 2003)
Chart3
Bangladesh
India
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
66
45
59
33
18
Chart2
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
13
9
14
10
16
5.5
Chart1
Bangladesh
India
China
Share of developing country low value finfish in food aquaculture, 1997
66
45
59
Sheet1
Bangladesh
66
13
India
45
9
China
59
14
Vietnam
33
16
Indonesia
18
5.5
Bangladesh
13
India
9
China
14
Thailand
10
Vietnam
16
Indonesia
5.5
Sheet1
Share of aquaculture in total fish production for selected Asian LIFDCs, 1998
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
LESSONS FROM ASIA
In Asia, major contributors to aquaculture are small-scale family managed fish farm and subsistence-oriented farmers
Global importance for rural and coastal societies, both in terms of economy and as a means of improving food security for the growing population
Effect of own production on household fish consumption
Moving away from cereals and crop commodity supply
Income and employment effects on poor people, women and children
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
AQUACULTURE’S LINK TO FOOD SECURITY
Figure2: Framework for Analyzing Aquaculture’s Linkages to
Food & Nutritional Security
Ability to earn higher wage or income
High income effect from aquaculture production and sale-profit
High home-consumption
ADOPTION-INCOME LINK
Source: Ahmed et al. (2002) – in press
Higher return to capital from aquaculture
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
FOOD SECURITY THROUGH AQUACULTURE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FROM BANGLADESH
In Bangladesh, nearly half the population suffer from chronic under nutrition
Green revolution overlooked the role of diversified production, employment and income
Role of critical vitamins and minerals in the diet, improvements in sanitation, hygiene and living environment
Improving access to diverse and quality food types
Moving away from cereals and crop commodity supply perspective
Integration of fish and livestock in discussion and debate on food security
Examine aquaculture’s impact to food and nutritional security at the farm and household level
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
ADOPTION – INCOME LINKAGES
Income and purchasing power have a tremendous influence on household demand for food
Income has high influence on fish consumption and other nutritional food
Though, nutritional status may not necessarily improve as income increases
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
INCOME EFFECTS
Source of Income Before Aquaculture After Aquaculture Intervention Intervention
Farm income (excluding fish) 15,747 18,388
Income from fish culture 758 5,053
Off-farm income 10,869 13,884
Total income 27,374 37,325
income (%) 4.6 21.6
income (%) 2.8 13.5
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
ADOPTION – EMPLOYMENT LINKAGES
Household ability to earn income depends on the nutritional health of the household labor
Family labor is an important production factor in developing country agriculture
Ability to earn higher wage or income
Ability to create higher employment
Increase in labor productivity
Lessons from Bangladesh
EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS
Relatively low use of labor in aquaculture compared to crop agriculture
Post-adoption labor/ employment in aquaculture is much higher than pre-adoption
Use of hired labor is also becoming common in aquaculture
Impact of Aquaculture Practices in Employment
Source: Miah (2000)
Lessons from Bangladesh
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS
Wage Rate (Tk/day) of Pond Aquaculture and Agriculture Compared 1998
Source: Thompson et al (2000) & BBS (1999)
Higher return to labor (Tk/day) from technology adoption in aquaculture
Source: Islam (2000)
Lessons from Bangladesh
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)
Sheet3
82
45
62
49
48
38
Sheet1
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)
Sheet3
Activities
Demonstration
Control
82
45
62
49
147
73
48
38
211
155
ADOPTION – CONSUMPTION LINKAGES
Adopting households consume a disproportionately higher amount of fish that are rich in micro-nutrient
Adoption of aquaculture increases market supply that pushes fish prices down
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
CONSUMPTION EFFECTS
Increased access to fish in both rural and urban areas in last five years
higher per capita consumption for producer households compared to non-producers and national average consumption
Price and income elasticity of fish are higher than those of other food items
Consumer demand for fish will increase at a higher rate for income increase and supply increase
Adoption of improved pond management and species composition will direct more fish to on-farm household consumption
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
CONSUMPTION EFFECTS
Comparison of Production and Home Consumption Before and After Adoption of Improved Aquaculture in Kapasia Thana, Bangladesh
Source: 1. Ahmed, et al. 1993 2. Ahmed, et al. 1995
3. Extrapolated estimate by the authors based on the proportion disposed for the consumption.
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)
Sheet3
Activities
Demonstration
Control
82
45
62
49
147
73
48
38
211
155
Period
Production
Aquaculture development: is it a panacea for poverty reduction?
Much of reported increase of aquaculture come from low-income food deficit countries
How much can aquaculture contribute to poverty reduction? There are opportunities as well as constraints
Can the constraints be removed through policy measures and policy actions?
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
ACCESS TO RESOURCES
Access to land is a major impediment for poor
richer people established greater access to land and water that were brought under aquaculture
Liberal government policies encouraged large-scale conversion of public land by the rich
Forced the poor out of common property fish harvest from public water or quasi-private land
Targeted development by NGOs and government have helped poor people access land and water
Flexible technology choices for more intensive use of labor
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
ACCESS TO RESOURCES
Percent distribution of households of some aquaculture
projects by size of land owned in Bangladesh in 1998
Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries
Sheet1
Rice
Fish
Pulses
Chicken
Meat
Vegetables
Fruits
Total
Polyculture
5.0
70.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
100.0
Aquaculture practices
Employment (manday)
146
28
243
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)
Sheet3
Activities
Demonstration
Control
Landholding
MAEP
TLFEP
NFEP
82
45
62
49
147
73
48
38
211
155
Role of Environmental Practices and Policies in Aquaculture
Damaging impacts on the ocean and coastal resources
Interactions of escaped fish stocks with wild stocks
Introduction of exotic species
Role of International Trade and Trade Policies in Aquaculture Development
Trade and Market Expansion
significant export orientation and focus on high value species
shift in the balance of trade in fish commodities in favor of developing countries
dependence on few developed country markets such as the EU, USA and Japan
global trade liberalization agenda vs. different forms of non-tariff barriers
resolutions and agreements on market access issues
regulatory measures on health and food safety requirements,
host of other forms of technical barriers to trade
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Role of International Trade and Trade Policies in Aquaculture Development
Trade Policies
Reduction of import tariff and import restrictions
Free trade agreements
Preferential market access
Role of International Trade and Trade Policies in Aquaculture Development
Trade Barriers
Technical barriers
Environmental regulation
Aquaculture R&D: Technology Need & Prospect
Reducing Aquaculture Dependence on Capture Fisheries for Feed
Nearly one-third of the world’s wild caught fish is consumed as aquafeed
As aquaculture trend increases, the pressure on wild fish stock increases
Technology to replace aquafeed with nutritious grains and protein rich oilseed
Remove the dependence of aquaculture on wild stock
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Aquaculture R&D: Technology Need & Prospect
2) Increase Productivity in Aquaculture
Selective breeding of Nile tilapia (o.niloticus) in WorldFish
Selective bred Nile tilapia outperformed the most widely farmed strains of Tilapia in Asia by growth and survival rate
85% growth increase over six generation
Yield improvement of 25-78%, depending on local conditions
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Aquaculture R&D: Technology Need & Prospect
2) Increase Productivity in Aquaculture
Genetic modification for improving quality and quantity of fish
developed strains of genetically modified salmon for potential use in cage aquaculture in China and India
benefits of genetic modification includes:
survival of endangered species
improve the reproductive success
comes with significant controversy and risk
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Conclusion
Challenge for aquaculture is to expand production to meet the future shortfall in fish supplies
Greater need for enforcement mechanisms for sustainable and environmentally safe aquaculture in developing countries
Aquaculture for the Poor
Equal opportunity to the poor to access inputs and market
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Conclusion
Semi-intensive and extensive aquaculture of low value food fish
Mass-production of low-value food fish by small-scale producers
Balancing fish trade for the poor
Greater access to export markets, and fair share of benefits for the poor
Inclusion of small-scale producers and women in trade arrangements
Pro-poor technology and policy support
Credit and infrastructure
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners
Thank You
and Aquaculture in Developing World
1973-97 and 2020
capture
aquaculture
0
5
10
15
20
BangladeshIndiaChinaThailandVietnamIndonesia
Annual Growth rate of aquaculture production in selected low income food deficit
countries, 1988-1998
for selected Asian LIFDCs, 1998
020406080
Bangladesh
India
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Aquaculture practicesEmployment (manday)
With Without Change
Population living below US$1 per day, millions
(2000)
1961-2001
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001
Year
FOOD IMPORT AND FISH EXPORT IN LOW INCOME FOOD DEFICIT
FISH PRODUCING COUNTRIES
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (1998-2002)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Beverage
Crops
(Cocoa,
Global Export of Fish and Major Agricultural Food Products (2002)
12%
8%
14%
17%
10%
17%
22%
CerealsMeat
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Year
for selected Asian LIFDCs, 1998
0
20
40
60
80
Bangladesh
India
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
1973
China
11%
Developing
countries
excluding
China
34%
Developed
countries
55%
2020
Developing
countries
excluding
China
36%
China
41%
Developed
countries
23%
1997
China
36%
Developed
countries
31%
Developing
countries
excluding
China
33%
020406080100120140160
Developed Developing
1997
2020
50
-
538
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other South
Mymensingh Aquaculture Extension Project-I (MAEP-I)6249
Northwest Fisheries Extension Project (NFEP)4838
ActivitiesDemonstrationControl
FarmerFarmer
Pond fish production (Fresh water)211155
PeriodProduction% of HomeQuantity Disposed
