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Iranian Journal of Science andTechnology, Transactions A: Science ISSN 1028-6276 Iran J Sci Technol Trans SciDOI 10.1007/s40995-017-0442-3

Synthetic Catalogue Simulation in Low-Seismicity Regions and Few InstrumentalRecords in Central Iran Based on MonteCarlo Method

Farzad Moradpouri, Nader Fathianpour,Reza Ghaedrahmati & Mehdi Zare

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RESEARCH PAPER

Synthetic Catalogue Simulation in Low-Seismicity Regions and FewInstrumental Records in Central Iran Based on Monte Carlo Method

Farzad Moradpouri1 • Nader Fathianpour2 • Reza Ghaedrahmati1 • Mehdi Zare3

Received: 13 December 2016 / Accepted: 27 November 2017� Shiraz University 2017

AbstractThe region of Naein seismic gap zone in central Iran includes several active faults with high seismicity potential. This

shows the necessity of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in spite of the earthquake records leakage. The aim of

this study is to conduct PSHA by generating a synthetic earthquake catalogue based on a small number of real earthquake

records in Naein zone. The catalogue was generated by means of Monte Carlo method using the limited real records for the

period of 1900 to 2009 AD and their statistical parameters. Afterwards, using aforementioned synthetic data we calculated

Guttenberg–Richter relationships (for each active fault as linear seismic sources) and peak ground acceleration (PGA-m/s2)

using appropriate attenuation relationships. Then the hazard curves for each of the seismic sources and the total hazard

curve were presented. Moreover, annual probability of exceedance and return period of the earthquakes were calculated for

the region. Finally, hazard map was presented for return period of 75 and 475 years which show a high level of ground

acceleration in the disputed region .

Keywords Central Iran � Seismic gap � Synthetic catalogue � Monte Carlo method � PSHA

1 Introduction

The lake of the historical seismic records and the relatively

low level of instrumentally located earthquake along some

regions and faults should not be taken as indicating that the

region is aseismic, So unexpected large future earthquakes

might occur in these regions, and structures can be severely

damaged and collapsed since most structures in these

regions were designed by considering only gravity loads.

In low-seismicity regions the estimation of probabilistic

seismic hazard must cope with the difficult identification of

active faults and with the small amount of seismic data

available (very few large-magnitude earthquakes and very

little if any strong ground motions recorded) (Beauval et al.

2006). Whereas, a primary component of the probabilistic

seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the earthquake cata-

logue as one of the most important data in seismological

researches and geodynamic researches, especially in

earthquake engineering, earthquake prediction, and seis-

motectonics which is scarce and the problem in the low-

seismicity regions (Zhou 2008).

The history of the reliable earthquake catalogue is rather

short due to the low seismicity of these regions, and so

earthquake catalogues based on this data are too short to

reliably implement the probabilistic seismic hazard

assessment. On the other hand, the implementation of such

studies seems to be inevitable in these regions.

Fortunately, with the progress of computing science and

knowledge of earthquake generation, synthetic catalogue

simulation have been developed to generate long,

& Farzad Moradpouri

f.moradpouri@gmail.com

Nader Fathianpour

fathian@cc.iut.ac.ir

Reza Ghaedrahmati

ghaedrahmati.r@lu.ac.ir

Mehdi Zare

mzare@iiees.ac.ir

1 Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mining Engineering,

Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran

2 Department of Mining Engineering, Isfahan University of

Technology, Isfahan 8415683111, Iran

3 International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and

Seismology, Tehran, Iran

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Author's personal copy

homogeneous catalogues that are consistent in many

aspects with the real tectonics and the real seismicity.

Synthetic catalogue simulations, via Monte Carlo simula-

tion, offer the opportunity to implement seismic hazard

analysis, whilst still allowing for uncertainty in various

parameters such as frequency-magnitude relation, maxi-

mum magnitude (Mmax) and attenuation relation. They may

also enable meaningful determination of hazard (in terms

of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and MSK Intensity)

with exceedence probabilities significantly smaller than

those currently used in standard PSHA techniques

(Weatherill and Burton 2006). Even, some kind of simu-

lation and synthetic data can be used for seismic design

purposes (Moradpouri and Mojarab 2012).

1.1 Seismicity of the Study Area

The seismic activity of some regions in central Iran is low

in a global sense, but not negligible. Naein seismic gap

zone is located in central Iran seismotectonic zone (Fig. 1).

In spite of several major active faults (Fig. 2), no consid-

erable earthquake has been occurred for the past continu-

ous centuries in this area. In seismicity point of view, this

area is classified as one of the most low-seismicity regions

in Iran with few historical and instrumental earthquake

records (Fig. 3).

The lack of seismicity within this part of central Iran

have been used to infer that these regions are not deforming

at the present time, whereas this part of central Iran,

however, contain large strike-slip faults, the major ones

being the Naein-Baft active fault (Deh Shir fault), and the

Biabanak fault (the western extension of the Doruneh

fault). From the twentieth century earthquake distribution,

we might not expect these faults to be active, as they occur

in flat, low-lying and apparently aseismic regions. Study of

earthquake faulting and seismotectonics on some of these

faults shows that some of these faults are as hazardous as

the faults which clearly cut the quaternary alluvial deposits.

From one point of view this region sounds apparently

aseismic, but this ought not to stop more studies from

various aspects. The assessment of PSHA is required for

the establishment of zoning maps over large regions or in

the context of seismic risk studies for sites that deserve

special attention.

Fig. 1 Location map of the

Naien seismic gap zone

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