ANTICIPATING THE “INEVITABLE WAR”
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Transcript of ANTICIPATING THE “INEVITABLE WAR”
ANTICIPATING THE “INEVITABLE WAR”
1899-1914
THE WARS OF THE EARLY 20th CENTURY
From colonial to industrial warfare
1- THE SECOND BOER WAR (1899-1902)
A war between Europeans in South Africa
1895: the Jameson Raid
PHASE 1: BRITISH DEFEATS
British military tactics: processes used against non-European peoples
(colonial warfare)
Step 1: to provoke contact with the enemy
Step 2: the use of superior firepower (riffles + machine guns + artillery) = swift
destruction of the enemy
PHASE 2: THE BOERS ON THE DEFENSIVE
The Boers: pre-emptive strikes into British-held
territory
British reinforcements = defensive
tactic
The good use of modern armament
TOWARDS A “TOTAL WAR”
Lord Roberts’ overall military strategy: the occupation of enemy
territory + the destruction of its
resources + the deportation of civilians
Phase 3: guerilla warfare
A NEW TYPE OF WARLord Kitchener: anti-
guerilla warfare against European
populations
2- THE RUSSO-JAPANESE WAR (1904-1905)
Industrial warfare
Rival imperial ambitions over Manchuria and Korea
Russia: the need for a warm water port (Port Arthur)
No compromise reached= war
THE LESSONS OF THE WARJAPAN
1- Frontal attacks unsuccessful due to modern rifles and machine-guns
2- War of attrition + disorganization of Russian lines = successes
3- The role of modern artillery: the number of firing rounds per minute increased dramatically + better accuracy
RUSSIA
1- The massive use of artillery = movements limited in daylight
2- The need to build a complex network of trenches + underground fortifications
3- The evacuation of wounded made more difficult
3- THE BALKAN WARS (1912-1913)
The use of the artillery + war of
trenches
Frontal attacks unsuccessful +
heavy casualties
Atrocities against civilian
populations
ANTICIPATING THE WAR: THE RISE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW
The Treaty of Westphalia (1648): the sovereignty of states
International law: a weak concept until the mid 1860s
1864: THE FIRST GENEVA CONVENTION
1864: THE BIRTH OF THE RED CROSS
The Battle of Solferino (1859)Henri Dunant
THE HAGUE CONFERENCES 1899-1907
Nicolas II
A peace conference for the
limitation of armaments Safeguarding
the human rights of
individuals involved in
armed conflicts
THREE SECTIONS
The peaceful resolution of international conflicts
Laws and customs for the conduct of war on land
The extension of the Geneva Convention of 1864 to naval warfare
THE SECOND HAGUE CONFERENCE (1907)
“Hostilities [between nations] must not commence without previous and explicit
warning” “The territory of a neutral power is
inviolable.” The use of floating mines was
forbidden
A PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION
The Court’s voluntary character
Diplomatic crisis prior to
1914 NOT submitted to
the process of international arbitration
ANTICIPATING THE WAR: THE MILITARY
The public’s admiration for the Army and its leaders
The fear of a devastating war
Moltke “the elder”: future European war to last several
years (1889)
NO decisive battle
SOCIAL DARWINISM
“We have won our position through the
sharpness of our sword, not through the
sharpness of our mind”
HOW TO PREVENT A TWO-FRONT WAR
BELGIUM NEUTRALITY: AN “UNIMPORTANT OBSTACLE”
The Treaty of London
(1839): Belgium
neutrality guaranteed in
perpetuity
THE SCHLIEFFEN PLANImpossible to manage and supply an army of millions for a long time = the need
to win through a series of decisive military
engagements
THE RESERVES
Schlieffen: the use of reserve units in the front
line against prevailing military doctrine to achieve superiority in numbers
The French officer corps: “Les réserves, c’est zéro”!!!
THE FRENCH PLAN XVII
OFFENSIVE TO THE LIMIT
1913 Field Regulations: “The French
Army, returning to its tradition, henceforth admits no
law but the offensive”
“That blind and imbecile attachment to the most visible of all colors”
AN OFFENSIVE-MINDED COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF
General Joffre
No need for ‘defensive-minded’
officers in the French army
RENEWING WITH TRADITION: THE FURIA FRANCESE
Colonel de Grandmaison: a defensive strategy = moral inferiority leading to
defeat
Correct assessment but… 30 years too soon!!!
Offensive to the limit vs. machine-guns and heavy artillery
THE GERMANS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES
“Big Bertha” (1911)
THE RUSSIAN STEAM ROLLER
The threat of the Russian
steam roller on Germany’s
eastern frontier
RUSSIA’S MILITARY DEFFECTS
Russia’s railways inadequate
Inability to produce enough artillery shells and riffle cartridges
Poor intelligence
Poor organization & planning
Promotion of officers through patronage
ANTICIPATING A WAR: PUBLIC OPINIONS
European public opinions rejected the idea of war
UNLESSThe nation’s interests were to be
threatened
FATALISM
‘Germany and the Next War’ (1911)
General von Bernhardi
War is a ‘biological necessity’
Germany must strike the first blow: France must be completely
crushed
GERMAN PUBLIC OPINION AND THE BALKAN WARS
INEVITABLE confrontation between Germanic and Slavic peoples
The Russian menace over GermanyRussian rearmament + investments in a
strategic network of railways = the Schlieffen Plan threatened
The idea of a PREVENTIVE WAR
FRENCH PUBLIC OPINION: NO TO WAR
The loss of Alsace-Lorraine in 1871 NOT a cause for war with Germany
Legislative elections
(May 1914): progression
of the Socialists
RUSSIA: URBAN vs. RURAL PUBLIC OPINIONS
Great enthusiasm in cities at the news of the German declaration of war (August 1)
Saint-Petersburg renamed Petrograd
The rural majority overwhelmingly ignorant or indifferent
GREAT BRITAIN: PACIFISM + INDIFFERENCE
British public opinion preoccupied with internal crises
Constitutional crisis over the powers of the House of Lords
Widespread strikes + the suffragettes movement
The question of Home Rule in Ireland
BRITISH PACIFISM
Plans to commemorate the battle of Waterloo in 1915: one hundred years of peace
1912: a new magazine, The Peacemaker, to celebrate Anglo-
German friendship
A GENERAL WAR IMPOSSIBLE?
The Great Illusion by Norman Angell (1910): economic interdependence of
nations = war is unprofitable
A 20th century war would be on such a scale to make war
‘unthinkable’
EUROPE IN 1914
Fatalism BUT public opinions against the idea of war
Less diplomatic tensions following the end of the second Balkan war
The Sarajevo assassination: the spark