Lower San Joaquin River Water Quality Control Plan · • Our proposal, now the Tuolumne River...

Lower San Joaquin River Water Quality Control Plan

(aka San Francisco Bay-Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary Water Quality Control Plan, Phase 1)

September 4, 2018

Agenda

• Background• Our relationship with the Modesto and Turlock Irrigation Districts• 2008 WSIP planning and reduction in demands

• The State’s Lower San Joaquin River Water Quality Control Plan (WQCP) proposal

• The effect of the State’s proposal on the Tuolumne River and on our water supply

• Our proposal, now the Tuolumne River Management Plan• Negotiated settlements are superior to a regulatory solution

that will only end in non-productive litigation.

The Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers and the San Joaquin Tributaries

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Hetch Hetchy

Background

• Our relationship with the Modesto and Turlock Irrigation Districts• 1913 Raker Act• 1966 Fourth Agreement• 1995 Side Agreement• Current Don Pedro FERC relicensing process

• The Final FERC License Application was submitted in October 2017. It included the proposed Tuolumne River Management Plan.

Background

• 2008 Water System Improvement Program planning• Originally planned for 300 mgd projected demands• Final Phased WSIP Variant reduced the amount of water San Francisco

would supply to 265 mgd for the benefit of the Tuolumne River and the local creeks.

• Essentially, our water customers conceded a substantial amount of diversions in 2008.

• However, we still have rights to 400 mgd of Tuolumne River diversions.

Timeline on Lower San Joaquin River WQCP Proposal

• September 2016: State issues draft WQCP• January 10, 2017: Commission hearing re WQCP• February 10, 2017: Bay Area Water Stewards meeting• February 28, 2017: Commission hearing re WQCP• March 8, 2017: Board of Supervisors Committee hearing• March 17, 2017: Comments submitted to State• 3/28/17–7/23/18: Six meetings with environmental groups• July 6, 2018: State issues “revised” WQCP• July 27, 2018: Comments submitted to State• August 21-22, 2018: State hearing on WQCP• Subsequent date: State consideration of WQCP

Lower San Joaquin River WQCP Proposal

• In 2016, the State proposed to modify the Lower San Joaquin River WQCP to require dramatically increased instream flows in the Tuolumne, Stanislaus and Merced Rivers, ostensibly to benefit salmon and steelhead (O. mykiss), but the State’s proposal is based on research in other river systems.

• The State’s proposal would require instream flows of 40% of unimpaired flow during the period February-June every year.

• Their proposal would have limited benefits for Tuolumne River fish and would seriously reduce our water supply in times of drought.

Lower San Joaquin River WQCP Proposal

• We presented an alternative (habitat improvements and strategic flow releases) that would create more fishery benefits with less water released. It was based on $25 million worth of rigorous, Tuolumne-specific studies.

• The State rejected our proposal without even analyzing it.• Our proposal has now evolved into the Tuolumne River

Management Plan which is contained in the Districts’ Final License Application for the Don Pedro Project FERC relicensing.

• All that said, we continue to believe that a negotiated settlement is better than costly and unproductive litigation.

Tuolumne River Management Plan

• Strategically timed flows, including functional flows• Gravel augmentation• Gravel cleaning• Habitat enhancement with boulders and potentially woody

debris• Predator control (not eradication)• A potential restoration hatchery• Adaptive management

Fishery Experts

Dr. Noah Hume has over 25 years’ experience in aquatic sciences and engineering spanning ecology, water quality, water supply and treatment. Noah developed a range of study plans covering aquatic resources and served as a lead scientist on studies as part of relicensing of the Don Pedro Project, including ecological and modeling studies related to Project impacts on salmonid populations due to changes in flow regime, temperature, sediment supply and transport.

Noah has overseen water quality monitoring and impact assessment for relicensing of projects throughout California and Oregon, including water temperature studies, in situ monitoring, and bacterial studies. In addition, he has also served as project manager in the design and implementation of levee repair and wetland restoration projects to benefit federally and state listed sensitive species along the Sacramento River, the northwest Delta, as well as in several coastal lagoons along the Central and Southern California Coast.Noah Hume

PhD, PE, Aquatic Ecologist/Senior Scientist

Fishery Experts

Andrea Fuller is a Senior Biologist with more than 20 years of experience, and is Vice President of FISHBIO. Andrea has managed and implemented numerous salmonid survival and behavioral studies, as well as long-term monitoring projects in Central Valley watersheds. Her experiences encompass all aspects of study design, permitting, field sampling, data analysis, and data management. She regularly synthesizes her knowledge and experience with Central Valley fisheries to provide recommendations for water resource management to support healthy fish populations.

Andrea’s field sampling experience includes monitoring with rotary screw traps, seines, fyke nets, and electrofishing; operation of portable resistance board weirs with Riverwatcher infra-red fish counters; and mark-recapture and telemetry studies. She has been certified by the United States Geological Survey for surgical implantation of acoustic tags, and has implemented logistics and quality control for various fish acoustic tagging studies. Andrea has authored or co-authored multiple technical reports pertaining to fisheries monitoring efforts, and provides advisory services to a variety of clients on Bay-Delta water resource and fishery issues.

Andrea is responsible for many studies performed on the Tuolumne River for including the role of predation.

Andrea FullerSenior Biologist, Vice President, FISHBIO

Fishery Experts

Research in the Fangue lab is focused on understanding the physiological specializations that allow animals to survive and thrive in complex environments. Dr. Fangue and her team are currently studying a variety of aquatic species to understand whether these organisms have sufficient physiological capacity or plasticity to maintain successful performance in the face of anthropogenic environmental perturbations such as climate change. In this research, the Fangue lab couples molecular, biochemical, physiological, and whole-organism measures of performance framed in an ecological context, to elucidate connections between environment, physiology, and ecosystem function. Dr. Fangue was the principal researcher for the Don Pedro Relicensing Study that examined thermal suitability for O. Mykiss on the Tuolumne River.

Nann Fangue, PhDChair, Dept. of Wildlife, Fish, & Conservation Biology | UC Davis

Chinook Salmon Smolt Production

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Striped Bass Predation

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Tuolumne River Management Plan flow measures

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Type Flow measure/purpose TimingFlow in cubic feet per second (except where noted)

Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical

Habitat capacity

maximizing flows

Fall-run Chinook spawning Oct 16-Dec 31 275 275 275 225 200

Fall-run Chinook fry rearing Jan 1-Feb 29 225 225 225 200 175

Fall-run Chinook juvenile rearing Mar 1-Apr 15 250 250 250 225 200

Fall-run Chinook juvenile rearing & outmigration, O. mykiss spawning and egg incubation

Apr 16-May 15 275 275 275 250 200

Fall-run Chinook outmigration May 16-May 31 300 300 300 275 225

O. mykiss fry/adult rearing1 Jun 1-Jun 30 200/100/150 200/100/150 200/100/150 200/75/125 200/75/125

O. mykiss juvenile/adult rearing1 Jul 1-Oct 15 350/150/225 350/150/225 350/150/225 300/75/175 300/75/150

Functional flows

Fall-run Chinook spring outmigration pulse flow

Apr 16-May 31(adaptive timing)

150 TAF 150 TAF 100 TAF 75 TAF 35 TAF 1st year, 11 TAF each

subsequent C year

Fall “flushing flow” (infiltration galleries turned off)2

October 5, 6, & 7 1,000 1,000 1,000 N/A N/A

Gravel mobilization release Two days, March through June, when

spill is forecast >100 TAF.

6,500 (not water year dependent). Down-ramping not to exceed 300 cfs/hr.

Flow hydrograph shaping Spill years Mimic the shape of the descending limb of the snowmelt hydrograph during spill years to provide benefits for native riparian vegetation recruitment.

1. Releases listed in the following order: with infiltration galleries at La Grange gage/with infiltration galleries below RM 25.5/interim flows if FERC does not adopt the infiltration galleries.2. On Oct 5, 6, & 7 in W, AN, and BN years, a “flushing flow” of approximately 1,000 cfs would be released instead of the listed minimum instream flow.

Adaptive Management

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• There is uncertainty in any plan, including our proposed Plan. However, the Plan has been developed in a way that can be adaptively managed.

• Adaptive management is a process that is neither “trial and error” nor overly reactive.

• It is a structured, transparent process to collect and use monitoring data and analysis to periodically reevaluate the mechanisms of the Plan. Are they producing the expected results, and if not, why not?

• Based on the results, we need to consider modifications to the Plan that we anticipate will improve the results and can be further monitored and analyzed.

Water Supply ImpactsHetch Hetchy Reservoir, January, 1991

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San Francisco Water Supply Planning

• Our Level of Service objective for water supply (used since 1994 and adopted in 2008) is to survive a specific 8.5-year drought planning scenario (1987-92 followed by 1976-77) with no more than 20% rationing from a total system demand of 265 MGD.

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Total System Storage in Design Drought with 265 MGD Demand

Planning for Alternative Supplies

Must Have Alternative Supplies

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What About the Most Recent Drought?

• Under existing conditions we called for a voluntary 10% reduction in demands.

• The State ultimately required an average reduction of 14% across our service area, and we achieved about 20%.

• If the proposed Lower San Joaquin River WQCP had been in effect, we would have been looking at 20-30% more rationing on top of that savings.

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Consequences of Being Wrong

“When considering all the factors associated with the City’s entitlements to water, its physical system and the dire consequences of just being wrong in the forecasting of the length of drought that may hit the City, I can not agree with any comment that the City’s operation rule is overly conservative.”

Anson Moran, January 1994

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San Francisco Chronicle Editorials

• January 22, 2017: “[M]ore needs to be done. Nature is as likely as the water board to reduce Sierra flows. Better to plan for a drier future than fight over a diminishing water supply.”

• August 20, 2018: “As climate change inevitably places restrictions on our water supply, every community will face these kinds of challenges. The sooner water agencies plan for the future, the less chaotic it will be.”

What Major Investments in Uncertain Water Supply Projects Could Help?

• To achieve the Level of Service objective (265 MGD demand with no more than 20% rationing) requires:• Roughly 900,000 acre-feet of new storage (900,000 = 2.5 x Hetch

Hetchy). We are participating in discussions regarding Los Vaqueros Reservoir

Expansion.• Purified water projects (reusing wastewater for drinking water), but the

outlook for these projects is uncertain. Four potential projects are actually in the discussion stage.

• Desalination plant with capacity of roughly 100 MGD in dry years, plus transmission pipelines throughout our service area. We are continuing discussions regarding a Regional Desalination

Project.

Conclusions

• The State’s proposal has significant impacts on the SFPUC water supply with uncertain benefits for the Tuolumne River.

• Benefits can be achieved for the Tuolumne River using our proposal for smart, functional flows combined with science-based measures other than flow.

• Negotiated settlements are superior to a regulatory solution that will only end in non-productive litigation.

Lower San Joaquin River Water Quality Control Plan · • Our proposal, now the Tuolumne River...

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