Long Term Climate 1

NASA VISION QUESTNASA VISION QUEST2010-2025: LONG-TERM CLIMATE2010-2025: LONG-TERM CLIMATE

NASA VISION QUESTNASA VISION QUEST2010-2025: LONG-TERM CLIMATE2010-2025: LONG-TERM CLIMATE

LEAD: DAVID RIND (NASA/GISS)

C0-LEAD: RICHARD SOMERVILLE (UCSD)

TEAM MEMBERS

PETER GLEICK (PAC INST) CHRIS MILLY (USGS)

DANIEL HILLEL (UMASS) CYNTHIA ROSENZWEIG (NASA/GISS)

CHRIS KUMMEROW (CSU) WALEED ABDALATI (NASA/HQTR)

LEAD: DAVID RIND (NASA/GISS)

C0-LEAD: RICHARD SOMERVILLE (UCSD)

TEAM MEMBERS

PETER GLEICK (PAC INST) CHRIS MILLY (USGS)

DANIEL HILLEL (UMASS) CYNTHIA ROSENZWEIG (NASA/GISS)

CHRIS KUMMEROW (CSU) WALEED ABDALATI (NASA/HQTR)

Long Term Climate 2

WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF WATER WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF WATER RESOURCES, IN THE U. S. AND THE RESOURCES, IN THE U. S. AND THE

WORLD?WORLD?

WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF WATER WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF WATER RESOURCES, IN THE U. S. AND THE RESOURCES, IN THE U. S. AND THE

WORLD?WORLD?

Water is an essential resource whose disruption will impact the economy, the quality of human life, and the fate of the environment for both natural and managed ecosystems.

Water is an essential resource whose disruption will impact the economy, the quality of human life, and the fate of the environment for both natural and managed ecosystems.

Long Term Climate 3

POPULATION PRESSURE POPULATION PRESSURE ALREADY PRODUCES WATER ALREADY PRODUCES WATER

PROBLEMSPROBLEMS

POPULATION PRESSURE POPULATION PRESSURE ALREADY PRODUCES WATER ALREADY PRODUCES WATER

PROBLEMSPROBLEMS

• ALREADY SUFFERING: Algeria, Kenya, Rwanda, Tunisia and many in the Middle East

• WILL LIKELY SUFFER: Egypt, South Africa, Iran, Somalia and Ethiopia, among others.

• IN THE U.S.: Conflicts among states in the SW, SE, NE

• ALREADY SUFFERING: Algeria, Kenya, Rwanda, Tunisia and many in the Middle East

• WILL LIKELY SUFFER: Egypt, South Africa, Iran, Somalia and Ethiopia, among others.

• IN THE U.S.: Conflicts among states in the SW, SE, NE

Long Term Climate 4

Scenes like these from Africa and Afghanistan may become more common in

the future.

Scenes like these from Africa and Afghanistan may become more common in

the future.AfghanistanAfghanistan SomaliaSomalia

West AfricaWest Africa KenyaKenya

5Long Term Climate

CLIMATE CHANGE WILL CLIMATE CHANGE WILL FURTHER ALTER WATER FURTHER ALTER WATER

AVAILABILITY AVAILABILITY

CLIMATE CHANGE WILL CLIMATE CHANGE WILL FURTHER ALTER WATER FURTHER ALTER WATER

AVAILABILITY AVAILABILITY

E.G., INCREASED EVAPORATION, HEAVIER RAINFALL, MELTING

GLACIERS

E.G., INCREASED EVAPORATION, HEAVIER RAINFALL, MELTING

GLACIERS

6Long Term Climate

Dust Bowl Analogs?

Composite maps of actual and tree-ring reconstructed “Dust Bowl” years (a-b) and four possible past analogs (c-f) since A.D. 1500. None of the past analogs are as severe as the 20th Century event, and only one wet inverse of the “Dust Bowl” (right plot) is suggested in the data.

Source: Cook, Purdy, and Gatewood, 2001

1761-1768

1815

1931

1703

1645

1755

LONG-TERM

2100

Frequency of severe drought (occurring once every 20 years) using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the 2xCO2 climate. Results are from the NASA/GISS model (left) as well as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) Model (right). For the current climate (not shown), all the grid boxes are green (5%); for the future climate, the frequency of occurrence increases dramatically, as can also be seen by the graph of percentage occurrences of severe drought (bottom) in the two models.

Long Term Climate 8

WATER RESOURCE WATER RESOURCE CHANGES WILL IMPACT CHANGES WILL IMPACT

SOCIETYSOCIETY

WATER RESOURCE WATER RESOURCE CHANGES WILL IMPACT CHANGES WILL IMPACT

SOCIETYSOCIETY

• ENERGY

• POPULATED FLOOD PLAINS

• HEALTH IN AN AGING POPULATION

• AGRICULTURE

• WATER EXTREMES MAKE THINGS WORSE

• ENERGY

• POPULATED FLOOD PLAINS

• HEALTH IN AN AGING POPULATION

• AGRICULTURE

• WATER EXTREMES MAKE THINGS WORSE

Long Term Climate 9

Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)

Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)

Karl et al. 1996

BW 7

KARL ET AL., 1996

Long Term Climate 10

CURRENT STATUSCURRENT STATUSCURRENT STATUSCURRENT STATUS

• Need global hydrologic components on a local level

• Predicting areas at risk is currently impossible

• Climate models disagree

• Impact models disagree with climate models

• Need global hydrologic components on a local level

• Predicting areas at risk is currently impossible

• Climate models disagree

• Impact models disagree with climate models

Long Term Climate 12

Soil moisture change projections are uncertain.

Long Term Climate 13

Without the optimistic assumption of full CO2 fertilization (bottom) even the U.S. suffers from the effect of water stress on agricultural production (top), but 3rd World countries are most affected.

Source: Rosenzweigand Parry1992

Long Term Climate 15

WHY NASA?WHY NASA?WHY NASA?WHY NASA?• A GLOBAL PROBLEM

– HYDROLOGIC CYCLE GLOBALLY CONNECTED (E.G., EL NINO)

– IMPACTS ARE GLOBAL AND AFFECT U.S.

– GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITIES

• REQUIRES A GLOBAL SOLUTION– REMOTE SENSING

• A GLOBAL PROBLEM– HYDROLOGIC CYCLE GLOBALLY

CONNECTED (E.G., EL NINO)

– IMPACTS ARE GLOBAL AND AFFECT U.S.

– GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITIES

• REQUIRES A GLOBAL SOLUTION– REMOTE SENSING

Long Term Climate 16

SSHHOORRTT--TTEERRMM

EEVVEENNTTSS

Long Term Climate 17

GPM: Constellation of satellites including a multi-channel polarized passive microwave radiometer and a radar system for measuring rainfall.

Long Term Climate 18

HOW WOULD NASA’S HOW WOULD NASA’S OBSERVATIONS BE USED?OBSERVATIONS BE USED?

HOW WOULD NASA’S HOW WOULD NASA’S OBSERVATIONS BE USED?OBSERVATIONS BE USED?

• Improve understanding of current hydrologic cycle and processes

• Improve climate models

• Assess progress in prediction by comparing models and observed trends

• Improve understanding of current hydrologic cycle and processes

• Improve climate models

• Assess progress in prediction by comparing models and observed trends

Long Term Climate 19

BUT NOT ONLY NASA...BUT NOT ONLY NASA...BUT NOT ONLY NASA...BUT NOT ONLY NASA...

• NEED A GROUND BASED NETWORK (INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION)

– REMOTE SENSING PROVIDES AREA-AVERAGING TO LOCAL OBSERVATIONS

– VALIDATES REMOTE SENSING RETRIEVALS

• OTHER U.S. AGENCIES

– USGS

– NOAA

• ON-GOING PROGRAMS

– GEWEX

– WCP-WATER

• NEED A GROUND BASED NETWORK (INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION)

– REMOTE SENSING PROVIDES AREA-AVERAGING TO LOCAL OBSERVATIONS

– VALIDATES REMOTE SENSING RETRIEVALS

• OTHER U.S. AGENCIES

– USGS

– NOAA

• ON-GOING PROGRAMS

– GEWEX

– WCP-WATER

Long Term Climate 20

Long Term Climate 21

WHAT ARE THE CHIEF WHAT ARE THE CHIEF NEEDS?NEEDS?

WHAT ARE THE CHIEF WHAT ARE THE CHIEF NEEDS?NEEDS?

• OBSERVATIONS

–Integrated soil moisture to rooting depth - the holy grail

–Long-term monitoring

• MODELS

–Accurate depiction of future temperature gradients - governs precipitation

• OBSERVATIONS

–Integrated soil moisture to rooting depth - the holy grail

–Long-term monitoring

• MODELS

–Accurate depiction of future temperature gradients - governs precipitation

Long Term Climate 22

Model estimates of potential water storage must be evaluated.

Long Term Climate 23

PRACTICAL BENEFITSPRACTICAL BENEFITSPRACTICAL BENEFITSPRACTICAL BENEFITS

• Understanding of current water cycle

• Improved water management

• Better understanding of geopolitical implications of climate change

• Better assessment of cost/benefit ratios for policy options

• Understanding of current water cycle

• Improved water management

• Better understanding of geopolitical implications of climate change

• Better assessment of cost/benefit ratios for policy options

Long Term Climate 24

LONG TERM CLIMATE RESEARCH IS LONG TERM CLIMATE RESEARCH IS SYNERGISTIC WITH OTHER NASA SYNERGISTIC WITH OTHER NASA

VISION QUEST TOPICSVISION QUEST TOPICS

LONG TERM CLIMATE RESEARCH IS LONG TERM CLIMATE RESEARCH IS SYNERGISTIC WITH OTHER NASA SYNERGISTIC WITH OTHER NASA

VISION QUEST TOPICSVISION QUEST TOPICS

• SEA LEVEL RISE

• HURRICANES

• BIODIVERSITY

• SUBSEASONAL WEATHER PREDICTORS

• SEA LEVEL RISE

• HURRICANES

• BIODIVERSITY

• SUBSEASONAL WEATHER PREDICTORS