Logistics Regression Paper on Freshman Enrollment
Transcript of Logistics Regression Paper on Freshman Enrollment
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A GC EGE DE EDC FEE EE
V S, A F, C F
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. T ,
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A
I V (IV) D V (DV)
IV . R IV DV
. R SAS .T
. T
.
AD CE A G AD E ECE FE
T G M U (GMU)
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GC EGET
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() ( ) ( ),
. T DV
, π IV SAT,
GPA, R, S, . T , ,
∞ +∞ 0 1. H , (L),
DV IV
[A, 1996:
(1)
T :
1) T L ∞ +∞.
2) T ( ) .
3) T L
.
A
A
E
)(tanRe1
Re ns Interactioce Dissidency RaceSexSAT GPA Log D RSeS G γ β β β β β β α
π
π +++++++=
−
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4) T L
[ A, 1996:
(2)
T β (1)
. E,
. H,
.
I PROC LOGISTIC SAS, NR ,
.
DECBG E FEE DAA
D GPA, SAT , , , .
D R, G, R ( IS OS),
. I , F 2005
F 2006 . T 1 I (IV)
D (DV) . T
. T E
Y ( ) N ( ). M IV
. R S .
1. D
/D
E I DV Y, N C, C
GPA IV 0 4.0 N, C
SAT IV 0 1600 N, C
S IV M, F N, C
RIV W, B, H,
A/P I, O
N, C
R IV IS, OS C, C
D ( , ) IV > 0 N, C
T 2 () () 4 # A, # A, # E F
2005 F 2006 . T R, S,
R. T % . R, S,
R IV . I , T 2
() IV (SAT, GPA, D)
.
)(tanRe
)(tanRe
Re
Re
1 ns Interactioce Dissidency RaceSexSAT GPA
ns Interactioce Dissidency RaceSexSAT GPA
D RSeS G
D RSeS G
e
e
γ β β β β β β α
γ β β β β β β α
π +++++++
+++++++
+
=
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T SAT GPA
D (F 2()). T , Z
PROC STANDARD SAS > 3.29 (
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DAA EA A AA
P IVDV
L . F 3 GPA
, S. S IV SAT
.
F 3. B GA
T MY (M
), MN (M
), FY (F ),
FN (F ). T
GPA
GPA
. T
M F
IV R R. S
(SAS
C 1), PROC BOXPLOTS SAS,
.
Boxplots: Response=Enroll, Predictor=GPA, Control=Sex
Sex: M F
MY MN FY FN
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
G P A
Enrollment Indicator
Mean=3.44
SAS® CODE 1
%MACRO OUTLIER(T1=, N=, W=, B1=, LL=, T2=, V1=, G1=, VA1=, VR1=, VL1=, TL=);
PROC SORT DATA=NENROL.FALLACCEP0506 OUT=BOX;
BY &B1. DESCENDING ENROL_IND;
RUN;
/** SETTING PLOT DISPLAY ATTRIBUTES*/
SYMBOL1 V=CIRCLE C=RED; SYMBOL2 V=SQUARE C=RED;
AXIS1 LABEL=(FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT=1.8 "ENROLLMENT INDICATOR")
VALUE=(FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT = 1.8 &TL.);
LEGEND1 LABEL= (FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT=1.6 "&B1.:") ACROSS=&N. POSITION=(TOP CENTER
OUTSIDE) CBORDER=BLACK CFRAME=CXFFFF88
VALUE= (JUSTIFY=LEFT FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT=1.6 &LL.);
TITLE COLOR=BLACK FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT=2.0 "BOXPLOTS: RESPONSE=ENROLL,
PREDICTOR=&T1.&T2.";
PROC BOXPLOT DATA=BOX;
PLOT &V1.*ENROL_IND&G1./ BOXSTYLE=SCHEMATICID HEIGHT=4.2 VOFFSET=3
HOFFSET=2 CBOXFILL=(BXCL) FONT=VERDANA
IDSYMBOL=CIRCLE VAXIS=&VA1.
VREF=&VR1. VREFLABELS=&VL1. VREFLABPOS=3
CVREF=GREEN LVREF=20 SYMBOLLEGEND=LEGEND1
SYMBOLORDER=DATA HAXIS=AXIS1;
&W. ;
RUN;
%MEND OUTLIER;
/* CALLING MACRO OUTLIER TO PLOT THE BOXPLOT FOR GPA IN FIGURE 3 */
%OUTLIER (T1=GPA, N=2, W= WHERE SEX NE 0 %STR(;), B1=SEX, LL= 'M' 'F', T2=%STR(,)
CONTROL%STR(=)&B1., V1=GPA, G1= %STR(=)&B1., VA1=2.0 2.25 2.5 2.75 3.0
3.25 3.5 3.75 4.0, VR1=3.44, VL1="MEAN=3.44", TL='MY' 'MN' 'FY' 'FN')
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T IV
L ( L) IV. E IV
10 ( ) . T
(L) :
T L . T SAS
C N [P, 2002. F 4 L
GPA SAT . T GPA L
. O SAT . I ,
, GPA/SAT .
F 4. E GA A
A . B
( ) IV (R, S, R)
.
F 5. E E
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F 5 ( 6) GPA*R
I (IS) O (OS) . O M
(M) F (F) SAT SAT*S
. T IV
. T
() IV.
GC EGE DE F G FEE DAAT
, E (Y, N), GMU GPA, SAT,
D ( ), R, R, S. A 5%
GPA, SAT, D . T
W, F, OS
R, S, R
SAS C 2 PROC LOGISTIC
(PARAM=REF) (SELECTION=BACKWARD) 5%
(SLSTAY=0.05) . T TECH=NEWTON NR F S. M
2
.
E:
T (L)
. T
2L L. A L
2L L. T 2L L
P
. T 2L L
2L L . T
2L L.
T , , .
F :
T 3 ( 8)
CS . A 5% . A
GPA*R (
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(SAS C 2, 7) . T 5
( : E ) (:
I ). T 2L L (= 14691.007) 2L L
(= 16813.624), . T L R CS (=
2122.6166) 2L L
5% ( C
GA 1 12.2620 0.0005
GA*GA 1 13.2299 0.0003
A 1 31.8376
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F :
S (GPA, SAT,
D) HL ,
, [H, 2000. T
( E ) ( : C/S )
P . T 6
P (=0.2435) . A P C ( ) T 7
73% DV Y ()
DV N ( ).
6: G F 7: C
GF
C DF > C
10.3167 8 0.2435
E : D IV
IV β
. T 8 ( 10)
CS P ( R =
B ). T β IV ( IV
, ) ,
. T E(E) IV
, [J, 2001.T I W OS F (
) SAT=0, GPA=0 L10D=0. S
T 8. C IV, W F
0.21385 L W M 0.24281. H O R (C) W
M W F ≈ 1.2; W M 1.2 F
(20% ), .
A
C 73.3 ' D 0.469
D 26.4 G 0.470
0.3 0.215
38224932 0.734
SAS® CODE 3
PROC LOGISTIC DATA=NENROL.FALLACCEP0506 DESCENDING; CLASS RACE(REF='1-WHITE')
RESIDENCY (REF=LAST) SEX(REF=LAST) /PARAM=REF ORDER=INTERNAL;
MODEL ENROL_IND = GPA GPA*GPA SAT_HIGHTOT SAT_HIGHTOT*SAT_HIGHTOT LG10DIST
SAT_HIGHTOT*LG10DIST RACE GPA*RACE SAT_HIGHTOT*RACE
LG10DIST*RACE SEX RACE*SEX RESIDENCY GPA*RESIDENCY
LG10DIST*RESIDENCY/
EXPB TECH = NEWTON CLODDS=WALD
CTABLE PPROB= 0.3 TO 0.6 BY .05 OUTROC=ROC_FRAD0506;
OUTPUT OUT=NENROL.M2PRED_0506 PRED=PRED_ENROLPROB;
RUN;
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8. E
A E
DF E E C > C E(E)
1 14.6833 2.4686 35.3780
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DV ( ) 0 1,
( ) . T
. I ,
S S . F O A
35% 40% . H
0.35 . T 9 DV (, )
0.35 0.40. V 0.35 .
9. E
C F E
C
E
E E
E C
F
F
EG
0.350 3163 5496 2821 1433 67.1 68.8 66.1 47.1 20.7
0.400 2770 6144 2173 1826 69.0 60.3 73.9 44.0 22.9
T ( = 0.35) 69%
66% . O
67% ( C T 9) . F 6 ROC
S 1S . T 45
( ) (=0.5)
. T
(
).
F 6. C C
ROC Curve for Estimated Freshmen Enrollment Model
Sensitivity
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1 - Specificity
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
A C C = 0.73
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CC
U
. A , GPA, SAT
, ,
, . T 5%
. T H L G F P=0.2435 S S ( = 0.35) 69% 66%, . T ROC
= 0.73 67%
. T S , ,
. D
, .
S , U ,
. T
, ( )
.
EFEECE
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A, A. (1996) A I C D A, JW & S I., N Y
P, M. (2002) C D A U L R C N, C 2002
SAS I I., C, NC 27513, USA.
H, D.W. L, S. (2000) A L R, JW & S I., N Y
J, J. (2001) I E L R, S: Q A S
S, S P I., CA
ACEDGEE
W
. T E T O A D.
L D D S G M U.
CAC FA
Y . C :
V S
O I R, P, A
N V C C
4001 W C R.
A, VA 22003
E: @. 75@.
P: (703) 3233129
SAS SAS I I.
SAS I I. USA . USA .
O .