Logistics Regression Paper on Freshman Enrollment

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    A GC EGE DE EDC FEE EE

    V S, A F, C F

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    . T ,

    , .

    A

    I V (IV) D V (DV)

    IV . R IV DV

    . R SAS .T

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    AD CE A G AD E ECE FE

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    (1)

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    1) T L ∞ +∞.

    2) T ( ) .

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    )(tanRe1

      Re  ns Interactioce Dissidency RaceSexSAT GPA Log  D RSeS G   γ   β  β  β  β  β  β α 

    π 

    π +++++++=

     

      

     

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    4) T L

    [ A, 1996:

    (2)

    T β (1)

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    I PROC LOGISTIC SAS, NR ,

    .

    DECBG E FEE DAA

    D GPA, SAT , , , .

    D R, G, R ( IS OS),

    . I , F 2005

    F 2006 . T 1 I (IV)

    D (DV) . T

    . T E

    Y ( ) N ( ). M IV

    . R S .

    1. D

      /D     

    E I DV Y, N C, C

    GPA IV 0 4.0 N, C

    SAT IV 0 1600 N, C

    S IV M, F N, C

    RIV W, B, H,

    A/P I, O

    N, C

    R IV IS, OS C, C

    D (  , ) IV > 0 N, C

    T 2 () () 4 # A, # A, # E F

    2005 F 2006 . T R, S,

    R. T % . R, S,

    R IV . I , T 2

    () IV (SAT, GPA, D)

    .

    )(tanRe

    )(tanRe

    Re

    Re

    1   ns Interactioce Dissidency RaceSexSAT GPA

    ns Interactioce Dissidency RaceSexSAT GPA

     D RSeS G

     D RSeS G

    e

    e

    γ   β  β  β  β  β  β α 

    γ   β  β  β  β  β  β α 

    π  +++++++

    +++++++

    +

    =

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    T SAT GPA

    D (F 2()). T , Z

    PROC STANDARD SAS > 3.29 (

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    DAA EA A AA

    P IVDV

    L . F 3 GPA

    , S. S IV SAT

    .

    F 3. B GA

    T MY (M

    ), MN (M

    ), FY (F ),

    FN (F ). T

    GPA

    GPA

    . T

    M F

    IV R R. S

    (SAS

    C 1), PROC BOXPLOTS SAS,

    .

    Boxplots: Response=Enroll, Predictor=GPA, Control=Sex

    Sex: M F

    MY MN FY FN

    2.00

    2.25

    2.50

    2.75

    3.00

    3.25

    3.50

    3.75

    4.00

          G      P      A

    Enrollment Indicator

    Mean=3.44

    SAS® CODE 1

    %MACRO OUTLIER(T1=, N=, W=, B1=, LL=, T2=, V1=, G1=, VA1=, VR1=, VL1=, TL=);

    PROC SORT DATA=NENROL.FALLACCEP0506 OUT=BOX;

    BY &B1. DESCENDING ENROL_IND;

    RUN;

    /** SETTING PLOT DISPLAY ATTRIBUTES*/ 

    SYMBOL1 V=CIRCLE C=RED; SYMBOL2 V=SQUARE C=RED;

    AXIS1 LABEL=(FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT=1.8 "ENROLLMENT INDICATOR")

    VALUE=(FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT = 1.8 &TL.);

    LEGEND1 LABEL= (FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT=1.6 "&B1.:") ACROSS=&N. POSITION=(TOP CENTER

    OUTSIDE) CBORDER=BLACK CFRAME=CXFFFF88

    VALUE= (JUSTIFY=LEFT FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT=1.6 &LL.);

    TITLE COLOR=BLACK FONT=VERDANA HEIGHT=2.0 "BOXPLOTS: RESPONSE=ENROLL,

    PREDICTOR=&T1.&T2.";

    PROC BOXPLOT DATA=BOX;

    PLOT &V1.*ENROL_IND&G1./ BOXSTYLE=SCHEMATICID HEIGHT=4.2 VOFFSET=3 

    HOFFSET=2 CBOXFILL=(BXCL) FONT=VERDANA

    IDSYMBOL=CIRCLE VAXIS=&VA1. 

    VREF=&VR1. VREFLABELS=&VL1. VREFLABPOS=3 

    CVREF=GREEN LVREF=20 SYMBOLLEGEND=LEGEND1

    SYMBOLORDER=DATA HAXIS=AXIS1;

    &W. ;

    RUN;

    %MEND OUTLIER;

    /* CALLING MACRO OUTLIER TO PLOT THE BOXPLOT FOR GPA IN FIGURE 3 */ 

    %OUTLIER (T1=GPA, N=2, W= WHERE SEX NE 0 %STR(;), B1=SEX, LL= 'M' 'F', T2=%STR(,)

    CONTROL%STR(=)&B1., V1=GPA, G1= %STR(=)&B1., VA1=2.0 2.25 2.5 2.75 3.0 

    3.25 3.5 3.75 4.0, VR1=3.44, VL1="MEAN=3.44", TL='MY' 'MN' 'FY' 'FN') 

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    T IV

    L ( L) IV. E IV

    10 ( ) . T

    (L) :

    T L . T SAS

    C N [P, 2002. F 4 L

    GPA SAT . T GPA L

    . O SAT . I ,

    , GPA/SAT .

    F 4. E GA A

    A . B

    ( ) IV (R, S, R)

    .

    F 5. E E 

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    F 5 ( 6) GPA*R

    I (IS) O (OS) . O M

    (M) F (F) SAT SAT*S

    . T IV

    . T

    () IV.

    GC EGE DE F G FEE DAAT

    , E (Y, N), GMU GPA, SAT,

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    W, F, OS

    R, S, R  

    SAS C 2 PROC LOGISTIC

    (PARAM=REF) (SELECTION=BACKWARD) 5%

    (SLSTAY=0.05) . T TECH=NEWTON NR F S. M

    2

     

    .

    E: 

    T (L)

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    T 3 ( 8)

    CS . A 5% . A

    GPA*R (

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    (SAS C 2, 7) . T 5

    ( : E ) (:

    I ). T 2L L (= 14691.007) 2L L

    (= 16813.624), . T L R CS (=

    2122.6166) 2L L

    5% ( C

    GA 1 12.2620 0.0005

    GA*GA 1 13.2299 0.0003

    A 1 31.8376

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    F : 

    S (GPA, SAT,

    D) HL ,

    , [H, 2000. T

    ( E ) ( : C/S )

    P . T 6

    P (=0.2435) . A P C ( ) T 7

    73% DV Y ()

    DV N ( ).

    6: G F 7: C

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    C DF > C

    10.3167 8 0.2435

    E : D IV

    IV β

    . T 8 ( 10)

    CS P ( R =

    B ). T β IV ( IV

    , ) ,

    . T E(E) IV

    , [J, 2001.T I W OS F (

    ) SAT=0, GPA=0 L10D=0. S

    T 8. C IV, W F

    0.21385 L W M 0.24281. H O R (C) W

    M W F ≈ 1.2; W M 1.2 F

    (20% ), .

    A

    C 73.3 ' D 0.469

    D 26.4 G 0.470

    0.3 0.215

    38224932 0.734

    SAS® CODE 3

    PROC LOGISTIC DATA=NENROL.FALLACCEP0506 DESCENDING; CLASS RACE(REF='1-WHITE')

    RESIDENCY (REF=LAST) SEX(REF=LAST) /PARAM=REF ORDER=INTERNAL;

    MODEL ENROL_IND = GPA GPA*GPA SAT_HIGHTOT SAT_HIGHTOT*SAT_HIGHTOT LG10DIST

    SAT_HIGHTOT*LG10DIST RACE GPA*RACE SAT_HIGHTOT*RACE

    LG10DIST*RACE SEX RACE*SEX RESIDENCY GPA*RESIDENCY

    LG10DIST*RESIDENCY/

    EXPB TECH = NEWTON CLODDS=WALD

    CTABLE PPROB= 0.3 TO 0.6 BY .05 OUTROC=ROC_FRAD0506;

    OUTPUT OUT=NENROL.M2PRED_0506 PRED=PRED_ENROLPROB;

    RUN;

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    8. E

    A E

    DF E E C > C E(E)

    1 14.6833 2.4686 35.3780

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    DV ( ) 0 1,

    ( ) . T

    . I ,

    S S . F O A

    35% 40% . H

    0.35 . T 9 DV (, )

    0.35 0.40. V 0.35 .

    9. E

    C F E

    C

    E

    E E

    E C

    F

    F

    EG

    0.350 3163 5496 2821 1433 67.1 68.8 66.1 47.1 20.7

    0.400 2770 6144 2173 1826 69.0 60.3 73.9 44.0 22.9

    T ( = 0.35) 69%

    66% . O

    67% ( C T 9) . F 6 ROC

    S 1S . T 45 

    ( ) (=0.5)

    . T

    (

    ).

    F 6. C C

    ROC Curve for Estimated Freshmen Enrollment Model

    Sensitivity

    0.0

    0.1

    0.2

    0.3

    0.4

    0.5

    0.6

    0.7

    0.8

    0.9

    1.0

    1 - Specificity

    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

     

    A C C = 0.73

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    CC

    U

    . A , GPA, SAT

    , ,

    , . T 5%

    . T H L G F P=0.2435 S S ( = 0.35) 69% 66%, . T ROC

    = 0.73 67%

    . T S , ,

    . D

    , .

    S , U ,

    . T

    , ( )

    .

    EFEECE

    ://..////. 

    A, A. (1996) A I C D A, JW & S I., N Y

    P, M. (2002) C D A U L R C N, C 2002

    SAS I I., C, NC 27513, USA.

    H, D.W. L, S. (2000) A L R, JW & S I., N Y

    J, J. (2001) I E L R, S: Q A S

    S, S P I., CA

    ACEDGEE

    W

    . T E T O A D.

    L D D S G M U.

    CAC FA

    Y . C :

    V S

    O I R, P, A

    N V C C

    4001 W C R.

    A, VA 22003

    E: @.   75@.

    P: (703) 3233129

    SAS SAS I I.

    SAS I I. USA . USA .

    O .