LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

20
LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT Dr. Garland Laliberte Bipole III Coalition

Transcript of LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

Page 1: LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

LOAD FORECASTING

AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

Dr. Garland LaliberteBipole III Coalition

Page 2: LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

17000

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before DSM, projected

from 20-year historic data, GWh

Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before DSM, projected

from 20-year historic data, MW

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6400

Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before DSM, projected

from 10-year historic data, GWh

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

33000

35000

Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before DSM, projected

from 10-year historic data, MW

3200

3600

4000

4400

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5600

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6400

Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

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35000

Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000

23000

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Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM

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Twenty-year Financial Impactson Domestic Revenue

Over-forecasting $2.3BEfficiency Manitoba DSM $5.1BTotal $7.4B

Page 9: LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW

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Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM

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Page 11: LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before DSM, GWh

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

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35000

Historic MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before DSM, MW

3200

3600

4000

4400

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5200

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Historic MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW

3200

3600

4000

4400

4800

5200

5600

6000

6400

Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

33000

35000

Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000

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Historic Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after EM DSM Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

33000

35000

Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast

MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM

Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after EM DSM Linear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historical and ForecastGross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW

3200

3600

4000

4400

4800

5200

5600

6000

6400

Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 ForecastMH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSMLinear (Historic)

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Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000

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25000

27000

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31000

33000

35000

MH13 Forecast (NFAT) Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast

MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic) MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM

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Recommendation No. 1

The Public Utilities Board should directManitoba Hydro to revise its electric loadforecast downward to more adequately reflectrecent historic experience, price elasticityimpacts and insights into factors driving loadforecasts in other North American jurisdictionsfor consideration in its current General RateApplication.

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Recommendation No. 2

The Public Utilities Board should directManitoba Hydro to conduct its own analysis ofthe impact on Manitoba Hydro’s balance sheetof the Government’s legislated plan for DemandSide Management of electric energy and toreport its findings to the Public Utilities Board aspart of its next General Rate Application.


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