LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP NSTA Web Seminar … · 1993-2003 sea level rise...
Transcript of LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP NSTA Web Seminar … · 1993-2003 sea level rise...
NSTA Web Seminar:
Earth Then, Earth Now: Our Changing Climate
Climate Change JeopardyPresented by Dr. Mike Winton, NOAA
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Climate Change Jeopardy
Host: Mike Wintonof NOAA/GFDL31 March 2009
The categories are• Observations of change• Basic greenhouse physics• Climate models & what they tell us• Climate change options
The earth’s surface is warming
GISS Temperature
IPCC
The heat that has warmed our climate did not come out of the ocean
1993-2003 sea level rise
Antarctica 0.20 mm/yr
Greenland 0.21 mm/yr
Glaciers and Ice Caps
0.77 mm/yr
Total 1.18 mm/yr
Ice is declining globally
• Both Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice• Glaciers are retreating globally• Northern hemisphere snow cover has declined• Northern hemisphere sea ice cover is declining• Southern hemisphere sea ice cover is not declining
Sea level is rising (ice melt + seawater expansion)
IPCC
Earth’s energy balance is the key to long‐term climate change
IPCC
Without the greenhouse effect the earth’s climate would be …
A) The sameB) A wee bit coolerC) Like the ice agesD) Like a big ice ball
Without the greenhouse effect the earth’s climate would be …
A) The sameB) A wee bit coolerC) Like the ice agesD) Like a big ice ball
The most important greenhouse gas is?
A) N2 (78 % of the atmosphere)B) O2 (21 % of the atmosphere)C) H20 (<1 % of the atmosphere)D) CO2 (0.038 % of the atmosphere)
The most important greenhouse gas is?
A) N2 (78 % of the atmosphere)B) O2 (21 % of the atmosphere)C) H20 (<1 % of the atmosphere)D) CO2 (0.038 % of the atmosphere)
Water vapor is a climate feedback
Atmospheric CO2 is increasing
Global Warming Art
Atmospheric CO2 was stable prior to the 19th century
IPCC
The CO2 increase is anthropogenic
CDIAC
We are perturbing the Global carbon cycle
IPCC
Atmospheric carbon has a range of timescales from short to very, very long
Global Warming Art
Our greenhouse gas emissions have changed the heat budget of
the entire earth by?
A) About 0.01 %B) About 0.1 %C) About 1 %D) About 10 %
Our greenhouse gas emissions have changed the heat budget
of the entire earth by:A) about 0.01 %B) about 0.1 %C) about 1 %D) about 10 %
There are numerous anthropogenic forcings of climate change
IPCC
We need global climate models to help us sort this
out but they are …A) Somewhat credible because they are based
on fundamental physical and chemical principles
B) Not completely reliable since they have significant disagreement with each other
C) BothD) Neither
We need global climate models to help us sort this out but they
are …
A) Somewhat credible because they are based on fundamental physical and chemical principles
B) Not completely reliable since they have significant disagreement with each other
C) BothD) Neither
What is a global climate model?A GCM is a mathematical representation of the major climate system components and their interactions. The GCM equations operate on a global grid and are solved on a computer.
Atmosphere
Land IceOcean
Physical CM
ESM*
*Earth System Model
Concentrations of radiatively active species
Emissions of radiatively active species
Climate model equations are solved on global grids
Current model resolution
OCEAN MODEL RESOLUTION: 1 deg.
1980s
1990s2000s
Atmosphere 2 deg.
Simulated vs. Parameterized
• Simulated processes: larger than grid‐scale, based on bedrock scientific principles (conservation of energy, mass and momentum). Example: storms.
• Parameterized processes: smaller than grid scale, formulations guided by physical principles but also make use of observational data. Example: clouds.
Detection and attribution of climate change using models
(1) Detection: something beyond natural variability is happening to the global climate
(2) Attribution: anthropogenic forcing is that “something”
IPCC
Detection and attribution at the continental scale
Climate models need emissions to project future climate change
IPCC
Projection: 21st century global temperature rises further
IPCC
The hydrologic cycle intensifies
Sea level rises further
Caveat: ice sheet dynamic response not fully modeled
IPCC
Global warming impacts Option 1: Adapt
IPCC
Option 2: Mitigation stabilize carbon emissions
Socolow, Scientific American 2006
• Conserve energy or produce it more efficiently• Use alternative energy: solar, wind, bio, nuclear• Sequester carbon
Emissions growth has powerful socio‐economic drivers
IPCC
Emissions growth has powerful socio‐economic drivers
The
Ric
h
The Rest
The Rest Become Rich Pop. increases
Population
Em
issi
ons
per c
apita
Rich emission level
If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses the earth would cool back down in?
A) 1 yearB) 10 yearsC) 100 yearsD) 1000 years or longer
If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses the earth would cool back
down in
A) 1 yearB) 10 yearsC) 100 yearsD) 1000 years or longer
Solomon S. et.al. PNAS 2009;106:1704-1709
Even if emissions were cut to zero, temperature would fall very slowly
There are three options:• Mitigation – reduce carbon emissions
• Adaptation – adjust to climate change as best we can
• Geoengineering (e.g. continuously inject reflective aerosols into stratosphere)
What option(s) are bestA) MitigationB) AdaptationC) Mitigation and adaptation, not geoengineeringD) Adaptation and geoengineering, not mitigation
Summary: Climate change jeopardy is a high stakes game with uncertain odds
More certain Less certain
Basic greenhouse physics
CO2 increase anthropogenic
Earth is warming
Warming is anthropogenic
Future carbon emissions
Future climate change
Impacts of future climate change
Special Thanks to NOAA, SRS and USFS for sponsoring this Web
Seminar!
http://www.elluminate.com
http://learningcenter.nsta.org
National Science Teachers AssociationDr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director
Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs
Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning
NSTA Web SeminarsPaul Tingler, Director
Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator