Luquillo CZEN Seminars• Atmospheric inputs (Spring 2009)

– March 25: Fred Scatena– April 22: Martha Scholl– May 6: Julie Pett-Ridge– June 10: Jamie Shanley

• Bedrock and Soil (Summer 2009)– Brantley, Buss, Wood

• Streams and flow paths (Fall 2009)– McDowell, Honeyfield, Kurtz

• Field Trip/workshop January 2010

LEF Climate“Consistent but Dynamic”

ITCZ

Westerlies

Westerlies

Hadley Cells & TradesBermuda High

Trade wind inversionSummer ~ 1000 m in PR

no barrier for cumulusPresent 45% of time

Winter ~ 500 m cloud barrier for cumuluspresent 85% of time

ITCZ

~ 2400 m in HawaiiCloud Belt ~ 500-1000 m

Upper barrier to TMCF in DR

Upper & lower limits to Cumulus cloud formation500m to 2000 m

1000 m

~ 500 m ~ lower Cumulus limit

2000 m ~ upper Cumulus limit

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Bermuda High

Cyclone 11.5% of total

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

12 year period

Luquillo LTERMid 90’s hurricanes

Mean Total Hourly Radiation, W/m2

2000-2002

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

Wat

ts/m

2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

S S S S S S SS

S

S

S

S S SS

S

S

SS S S S S SB B B B B B B

B

B

B

BB B

BB

B

B

BB B B B B BE E E E E E E

EE

EE

E E EE

EE

EE E E E E E

Mean Hourly Temperature 2000-2002Sabana, Bisley, East Peak

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

Deg

rees

C

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

S S S S S S S

S

S

SS S S S S

SS

S

SS S S S S

B B B B B B BB

BB

B B B B B BB

BB B B B B B

E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E

Diurnal PatternsBisleySabana

East Peak

Radiation

Temperature~ Max daily difference

In afternoonTop and bottom

8C/1000m

Ground level Open sites 153 m to 1011m5 to 10C difference in afternoon from Top to Bottom

~ 5-6 between adjacent forest and pasturesSabana

Pasture & Forest

SeaLevel

Land-Sea

Diurnal PatternsAfternoon ~ 5 to 10 degree difference from top to bottom

Sea to land winds complement trade winds

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

mm

/hr

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Average rainfall per hourAverage 3 showers per day, high interception 35-40%

EP

BIS

SAB (< 40)

Cloud

Carter and Elsner 97

Benstead et al, 2000

Night-time larval release

Diurnal changes and CZEN processesLand-sea breezes & clouds and rain

Respiration; streams, soils??

Seasonal Changes

Hurricane formation ~ 26.6

12/1/2006 4/1/2007 8/1/2007 12/1/2007 4/1/2008 8/1/2008 12/1/2008 21

22

23

24

25

26

27

21 22 23 24 25 26

Daily Average Stream TemperatureBisley 3; 2006-2008

Late SummerPeak

March-AprilLow

J F M A M J J A S O N D16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Mean Daily Air and Stream Water TemperatureBisley Watersheds and East Peak

Max Air

Min Air

Stream

EP Air

Annual Rainfall and Throughfall“Short Wet and Dry Spells Alternate; Absence of large dry season”

Bisley (3482 mm/yr) and El Verde (3350 mm/yr)

Annual Calendar of Events & CZEN Processes

African Dust Peak

Stallard 2001; El Verde NADP Collector

Seasonal Changes in CZEN Processes

Stream Metabolism; Ortiz etal

Ruan et al 2004

Soil Microbial Biomass

Litterfall

Graniodiorite

Hornfels Peaks

Coastal PlainAlluvium

Volcanoclastics

Changes with Elevation

Elevation0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

mm

/yr

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000 **

EP Rain + Clouds4398+770 = 5168

Mean Annual Rainfall vs elevation

Garcia-Martino et al. 1996Pike 2008

TMCF

ELEVATION (m)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

RAIN

FALL

(m

m/y

r)

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

EV

PE

RG

RBU

RBP

RB4

C BGS

NF

SF

EF WF

LMEY

r2 = 0.90

Rainfall (mm/yr) Runoff (mm/yr) Discharge (m3/s)

WEIGHTED AVERAGE ELEVATION (m)

200 300 400 500 600 700 800

RUN

OFF

(m

m/y

r)

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

RG1ES1

ES2

ES3

RB1

RM1

RM2

RFRS

r2 = 0.77

PREDICTED DISCHARGE (WAE, DA) [m3/s]0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

DIS

CHA

RGE

[m3 /

s]

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

RG1

ES1

ES2

ES3RB1

RM1

RM2

RF

RS

RG1ES1r2 = 0.97

Wetter, colder, cloudier, windier

Air Temp ~ - 0.59 C/100 m Soil Temp ~ - 0.54 C/100 mRainfall ~ + 235 mm/yr/ 100 mRunoff ~ + 400 mm/yr/ 100 m

Air Soil

“windward vs leeward” differences within LEFAET/Rainfall

Elevation and CZEN ProcessesForest Types, NPP, Decomposition & SOM,

Landslides, bioturbation..

SOC

NPP

Earthworms elevation

Cloud Coast

#/m2 Species/m2

Tradewinds

SynopticSystems

Energy &Moisture

SeaLevel

Land-Sea

Inter-Annual Changes: Local vs Global Drivers

Detailed Records from mid 1980’sForest dynamics from 1940’s

Rainfall and Temp 1900’s

Median -1.7 mm/yr South slope -2.6 mm/yr (NS)North slope -2.0 mm/yr (NS)

Annual Rainfall20th Century

LEF 88-00

Rainfall

Throughfall

Relative Nutrient InputsRainfall and Throughfall

Wet & Moist Tropical ForestsStandardized by median

(median = 100)

Cation rich

MaritimeUnpolluted

High interception

Rainfall variation < Throughfall

Rainfall Ca inputs ~ 50 yr landslide AG accumulation

(Heartsil-Scalley et al 207)

NADP Collector El Verde

Stallard 2001

1984 1998

Marine Cations

Temperate

Desert

Alkalinity

Acid Rain Events

Cation Flux in Rainfall and Throughfall

San Juan Daily Temperature

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 707172737475767778798081828384858687888990

~ + 0.4 C/DecadeMid 1980’s peak

Lower Temperature Change within LEFSlight increase in Bisley and El Verde

Possible Decrease in East PeakBisley 93-07

East Peak 02-09

Tradewinds

SeaLevel

Land-Sea

Larger Temperature Difference from Coastal Plain to PeaksGreater Sea-Land Breezes

Winder and Cooler Cloud Forest???

Van der Molen

Havana 20th Century Increase

y = -0.0532Ln(x) + 0.1946R2 = 0.12

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual d

evia

tion

from

mea

n ra

infa

ll

PR 20th Century Decrease

Decrease Rainfall & Increase Air TemperatureMostly on Coastal Plain

Relatively Small Changes Overall

Coastal Plain ~ 2.0 mm/yr ~ 500 yrs to change life zones Montane Areas < 0.5 mm/yr ~ 2000 yrsLEF H2O Extraction ~ 190 mm/yr (2 orders of magnitude larger!)

Luquillo Climatic Disturbances• Droughts & Fires• Hurricanes• Stream channel events• Landslides creating storms

Canopy Turnover yearsHurricanes (50-60 yrs)

Gaps (165-175 yrs)Bisley Tower after Hugo

Slope Failures and Tree up roots

Duration more important than IntensityRare with cold frontsUproots

1600 - 4500 yrs

Hurricanes

Slope Failures; 12 degrees, > 300m elevation, East NE slopesCanopy turnover ~ 1300 yrsSoil Steep valleys ~ 500 – 1000 yrsSurface Soil Landscape ~ 3000 + yrs

Number of Hurricanes passing within 2 degrees of Puerto Rico by decadefrom 1720-2000

1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Hur

rican

es p

er D

ecad

e

0

2

4

6

8

10

Cum

mul

ativ

e N

umbe

r of H

urric

anes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Within 2 degrees ~ 4 yrsLocalized damaged ~ 10 - 20 yrsDirect Impact ~ 50 - 60 yrs

Not only SST or NAO; African Monsoons & ENSO

Donelly & Woodruff 2007

5000 yr record of “Hurricanes” in Vieques

Coral Based SSTLittle Ice AgeLa Parguera

Daily Rain, mm

mm

/day

0

50

100

150

200

250

Stream flow as % of Undisturbed

01/01/96 03/01/96 05/01/96 07/01/96 09/01/96 11/01/96 01/01/97

% u

ndis

turb

ed

50100150200250300350400450

50% reduction90% reduction

ET as % of Undisturbed

% u

ndis

turb

ed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

50% reduction 90% reduction

Moisture Storage as % Undisturbed

% u

ndis

turb

ed

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

50% reduction90% reduction

Hurricane Defoliation & Hydrologic response daily time series% undisturbed conditions

50% defoliation does not do much!

The future ??

Proportion of rainfall that contributed to stream flowDecrease from 1970’s to 1990’s

Influence of reforestationLess H20 to the Coast; extractions & reforestation

Wu etal

Gonzalez et al 2005

Day time San Juan60C

Nighttime San Juan33C

Increase 0.06 C/yrover adjacent vegetated areas

Getting Hotter !

Potential Changes in SOM2C increase in Temp, 22% decrease in Precipitation

(~ Late Holocene variation)

Wang et al 2002Increases in areas that will be more productive

Colorado to Tabonuco Forest

< 5 % change

SOM

HurricaneDominated

110 yr

Gap and slideDominated

40 yr

Saprolite thickness // channel

Stable Ridge Tops – Dynamic valleysLandslide and uproots everywhere

Rapid turnover in top 50-100 cm

Surface

Bedrock

Saprolite

TPI ~ 39%TPI + Age + Depth ~ 60%Vegetation type ~ 8%

Bisley Soils

Tradewinds

SynopticSystems

Energy &Moisture

SeaLevel

Land-Sea

“Old on the inside -- young on the outside”

1) Local vs distal influences2) Imprint of intense hurricane activity 2000BP