Lifetime Affordable HousingCentre for Design, RMIT University

DesignBUILD Seminar Series Catalyst for change

Friday 25th June 2010 12.30-13.30 hrs

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Acknowledgements

Acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of the Land, of Elders past and present, on which this meeting takes place.

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Acknowledgements

Project is funded by the Australian Research Council Linkage Scheme

Project partners and other contributors.

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Lifetime Affordable Housing

Australian Research Council (ARC) funded linkage project, of 3 years duration – Nov 2007 start.

3 PhD scholars & 1 full time researcher Key research themes: 1.Costs, 2.Location, 3.Affordability, 4.Policy

implications

Project partners RMIT University UniSA Building Commission VicUrban Land Management Corporations (LMC) SA

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Background

To limit global warming to 2C IEA proposes a 450ppm scenario (IEA) – this means a reduction of emissions to 25% below 2000 levels by 2020

Australia’s emissions 2000 - 553 Mt CO2 2020 target - 470 Mt CO2

BAU trend Australia’s domestic emissions would be expected to be 692 Mt CO2 - gap of 222 Mts

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Residential energy use Energy consumption by households is an

important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. 14 tonnes of CO2 per household per annum.

Population increase, larger dwelling sizes and more appliances and IT equipment per household have contributed to an increase residential energy consumption of nearly 20% 1996 -2006.

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Home energy use 2008

Space heating and cooling represent single largest component of residential energy use in Australia.

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Addressing space heating / cooling

Four critical factors1. Energy source2. Efficiency of equipment used3. Size of space being heated4. Efficiency of building shell

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To reduce this energy use and its effects on the climate, several strategies are necessary,

heat demand reduction (building size / envelope efficiency)

increased energy efficiency (heating / cooling equipment)

conversion from fossil fuels (Renewable Energy Technologies)

Energy efficiency is the most cost effective means to reduce CO2 emissions (WWF) Ceiling / wall insulation

Infiltration control Shading Improved glazing

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Addressing space heating / cooling

Four critical factors1. Energy source2. Efficiency of equipment used3. Size of space being heated4. Efficiency of building shell

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National House Energy Rating Scheme Zero stars means the building shell does

practically nothing to reduce the discomfort of hot or cold weather.

A 5 star rating current mandatory standard.

6 star rating typical international standard.

Occupants of a 10 star home are unlikely to need any artificial cooling or heating.

Move to 6 stars reduces space heating by 22%

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What’s the problem? Why not a higher performing standard

Increasing housing affordability problem Costs of operation of housing set to increase Debate over energy efficiency – affordability

vs. sustainability Lack of consensus on theory, practice and

policy LACK OF CLEAR EVIDENCE - DATA

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Housing life cycle costs & benefits - Research questions

What are the through-life costs & benefits of predominant housing forms in Australia's major cities?

What are the through-life costs & benefits of improved building envelope thermal performance & higher energy efficiency for these forms?

How might infrastructural investments affect the ongoing costs associated with housing?

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Lifecycle costing of energy efficiency upgrades 80 house plans Modelled in NatHERS software

Accurate Energy efficiency upgrade scenarios (insulation, glazing, shading)

5 stars 6 stars 7 stars 8 stars

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Criteria for energy efficiency upgrades

Parameters addressed in order of priority

STAR RATING

1. CEILING 2. INFILTRATION CONTROL

3. SHADING 4. EXTERNAL WALL

5. GLAZING 6. INTERNAL WALLS

5 star

6 star

7 star

8 star

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1. Best orientation2. Identify thermal

zones3. Additions

according to priority list

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1. Best orientation2. Identify thermal

zones3. Additions

according to priority list

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1. Best orientation2. Identify thermal

zones3. Additions

according to priority list

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Lifecycle costing LCC of energy savings 2009-2050 Low and high energy price scenarios Net Present Value in $AUS of energy bill savings

from upgrades Electricity price 2009 - 2050 Low & high price scenarios

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

$ /

kW

h

Electricity low $ /kWh

Electricity high $ /kWh

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Results The NPV of energy efficiency upgrade

depends on five critical parameters, for all upgrade scenarios

1. Orientation of design2. House size (Net conditioned floor area in

sqm)3. Time-horizon of analysis4. Energy price5. Discount rate applied

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1. Orientation

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5 star orientations performance

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

5.2

5.3N

NE

E

SE

S

SW

W

NW

Plan no. 9022

Plan no. 9021

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Capital cost upgrade from 5 stars to 6 stars performance:

Upgrade to 6 stars across all possible orientations, average of $3050.31

Upgrade to 6 stars to best performing orientation only, average of $1049.94

Mean percentage savings by optimal orientation = 97.48%

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Capital cost upgrade from 5 stars to 7 stars performance:

Upgrade to 7 stars across all possible orientations, average of $6481.16

Upgrade to 7 stars to best performing orientation only, average of $4061.49

Mean percentage saving by optimal orientation = 28.25%

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Capital cost upgrade from 5 stars to 8 & 9 stars performance:

Upgrade to 8 stars across all possible orientations, average of $28835.22

Upgrade to 8 stars to best performing orientation only, average of $9203.69

Upgrade to 9 stars to best performing orientation only, average of $26171.51

Mean percentage saving by optimal orientation (8 stars) = 65.74%

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2. House Size

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Floor area of new homes (Commsec / ABS)

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3. Discount Rate

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Net Present Value of Energy Savings

Over a 40 year period, the Net Present Value of savings determined by Price of Energy assumed and more importantly Discount rate

Discount scenario 1 = 1.65%. Discount scenario 2 = 3.5%Discount scenario 3 =

8%

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Summary of findings to date:

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

5 years 10 years 25 years 40 years

Time-horizon

NP

V $

AU

S

NPV $AUS 6 stars

NPV $AUS 7 stars

NPV $AUS 8 stars

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-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

5 years 10 years 25 years 40 years

Time-horizon

NP

V $

AU

S NPV $AUS 6 stars

NPV $AUS 7 stars

NPV $AUS 8 stars

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6 star s

6 star s

7 star s

7 star s

7 star s

6 star s

7 star s

8 star s

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

5 years 10 years 25 years 40 years

Time-horizon

NP

V $

AU

S

low energy price

high energy price

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Implications: Housing - a long life infrastructure that is

far more expensive to upgrade to improve energy efficiency than to construct to minimum standards.

Significant energy and emissions savings can be made through better energy efficiency

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Implications continued….reduce emissions

Three key components to reduce emissions from heating / cooling : heat demand reduction (building envelope

efficiency, orientation, house size) increased energy efficiency (heating / cooling

equipment efficiency) conversion from fossil fuels (renewable

technologies).

These can’t be addressed in isolation – eg. focus on star ratings alone

Some examples of best practice: Kronsberg, Hannover Germany:

Passive house design 15kwh/m2 (equal to approximately 8.5 stars Melbourne)

Quality assurance modelling Electricity saving campaign Solar installations Co-generation heating network

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BedZED, London UK Urban infill on site of old sewage works CHP systems, PV panels Reused – recycled material South facing living spaces to maximise

solar heat gain in winter North facing workspaces to provide in-

direct light and cool temperatures

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•Includes upfront costs, costs of yearly energy, system replacement costs•Costs higher for BAU the longer time goes•Benefits from options with RE greater as time goes on and benefits from ZEH greater after 25 years

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Conclusions: Energy efficiency can contribute

significant ‘easy gains’ for emissions reduction

Reduced energy demand equates to a reduction of risk for households

Higher energy efficiency ‘adds up’ for environmental and social criteria

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Issues of equity, intra-generational & inter-generational

Sensitivity of at-risk households to policy changes & energy price changes (AHURI, 2007).

Reduced energy demand equates to a reduction of risk for households

Conclusions continued….Issues of equity

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Challenge for industry / government - identifying effective strategies for producing an affordable / energy efficiency housing when land and building costs are highly priced

Approach – pursue low cost means of achieving higher energy efficiency / thermal performance from housing.

Conclusions continued….

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Broad strategies for industry– Passive solar design Master planning of developments for optimum

orientation Innovation – modular housing? Regulation & market efficiencies – eg. double glazing in

Europe

Government – mechanisms to achieve higher energy efficiency without disadvantaging those in vulnerable socio-economic groups

Conclusions continued…. Strategies

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Comments / Questions? Dr. John MorrisseyResearch FellowCentre for DesignDesign & Social Context PortfolioRMIT UniversityGPO Box 2476VMelbourne, Victoria 3001

Tel +61 (3) 9925 9092john.morrissey@rmit.edu.au www.rmit.edu.au/cfd/laha