Life after shopping Gaetan Siew CEO MIPIM 12-15 March 2013 MIPIM Cannes 2013.
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Transcript of Life after shopping Gaetan Siew CEO MIPIM 12-15 March 2013 MIPIM Cannes 2013.
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Life after shopping
Gaetan Siew CEO
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
MIPIM Cannes 2013
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MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
OptimismGreat DisruptionChange of expectations
Optimism• Good in crisis• Backs against the wall• Break addiction to
growth• Rough ride to better
place• Debt is dueGreat Disruption
• Economic /Ecosystem crash synchro
• Food shortages• Climate catastrophes• Massive economic change• Global geopolitical instability
Change in expectations• Our material lifestyles• Nature & focus of our work &
career• Our expectations of government• Communities/Companies behaviour
This is your story, our story. This is the time . This is our time.
Choking citiesJakarta ~10h/dayIndia - $4,5 b €/year
In the Eye of the Cyclone
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“The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences... We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now...”W Churchill - 1926
The Scream – Our children’s childrenMankind ProgressNatureRio to DurbanMankind Progress• Depth & Complexity of
issues• Experience +
Understanding
Part and Parcel of Nature
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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A Very Big ProblemGlobal FootprintHumanity v/s MoneySkepticism
Humanity v/s Money• Sir N Stern : Unchecked climate = 20% GDP• Can we afford this?
The World• 2007 : > 50% urban population• Monster or sustainable cities ?• + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050• 500 000 slum dwellers /month
Global Footprint - Climate Refugees• 2011: Thailand Floods = 34 € bn• 1 000s of lives• China droughts = 4m families < 60 years• Russia = record °C – banned wheat exports• Pakistan, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia,
Somalia
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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Beyond the limits No action ?Limits
World : 1 hectare of agri-land lost/sec
No action?• No action = more of the same• Problem will be fixed by
• New technologies• Power of markets• New capital injection
• Not going to happen• Will we continue• Business as usual?
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Limits• Planet’s finite physical resources• Capacity to absorb impact• 9 bn people
• To feed (+50% demand in 2030 – World Bank)• To house
• If poor grow modestly 2%/Year • 2050 : Global economy x 15 of now• Now = 140% of planet capacity
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3 QuestionsWhere are we now?
3 Questions• Problem is population?• Market/Technology will fix it
?• Different economy?
Where are we now?• Challenge = clear, logical, accepted• Herculean task• Maths do not work if eco grows• No observation of global scale action• Momentum against us• Resistance to change
continues/strengthens
Beyond the limits
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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Addicted to GrowthWe love it!Choice?What is the issue?
BangladeshClimate refugeesWorld = 250 m pa.
We love it!• Political/Economical strategy of every gov/company
Issue?Not when but how• How to adjust?
Planet and/or Civilisation• Not only about saving the planet• About saving the civilisation
Human Issue• Most importantly human
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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When the Dam of Denial BreaksGlobal Emergency ResponseNew Economic ModelOld/New Systems
Sahara Sun = 10 000 EU needsSun = 10 000 x world daily needs
Global Emergency Response• Initial response: Energy, Transport, City,
Agriculture• Expand Response to other Sustainability Issues• Global Energy Efficiency benefits 2050 = 6 tn €
Two Responses in parallel• Old Economy & System : trying to fix itself
• + existing assumptions and mechanisms• New Economy
• + out of the box thinking
New Economic Model• Less Consumerism/material growth• Alleviating poverty / Inequity• New Energy Systems: Renewable energies• City reDesign for Quality of life • Reconfigure businesses for + value / less resources
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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The One-degree WarRapid Response Possible2 Phases
The global risk of coastal flooding
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
China : 50 shades of grey
2 Phases• Phase 1: Failure of growth
• Assumption: Growth = prosperity/success• Resistance: to restart growth
• Phase 2: End of growth• Breakthru’ in technology• Cities, transport, agriculture transformed
• Rapid global change with• Resilience, ingenuity, brilliance, innovation
Rapid Response Possible• Coalition of Cooling• 50% Emission = USA + China + EU27
• 67% Emission = if + Br + Ru + In + Jp
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Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese SunSurvivalGeopolitical implications
Survival• Not about size/strength• Adapt + Resilience• Practical Preparedness :
• Right Technology • Innovation
• Psychological Readiness :• Cope with uncertainty• Cope with rapid change• Challenge >> Decision
One certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese SunEU - USA -Asia (China)
EU- USA - Asia (China)• EU - USA losing advance in innovation• EU o 2020 - 20% - 20%• China =
• 2006-10: 20% CO2 reduction• 2020 : 40-45% reduction• World largest solar market + Wind power
• Asia:Less subject to corporate lobby & democracy• Asia : Heavy R&D investment - 2012: 386 b € – 38%
world• Energy Efficiency - New Energies - IT & Biotech, etc
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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Who’s in charge?Finance?Media power?Governments?Civil Society?99%?Facebook?
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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Creative RedesignOpportunitiesCreative measures
Opportunities• Winners: seize opportunity
• HSBC 2020 : Low CO² tech = 1,5 tn €/Y• WEF 2030 : 13,5 tn € /Y
• Losers: slow to respond >>> Kodak v/s FujiCreative Measures• C5 : Connect the City to Chaos,Crisis & Change
• Create Urban Leadership• Promote Urban Responsibility • Create Long Term Value• Shop less, live more
• I4 : Invest in Intelligence, IT & Innovation• Connect IT R&D to Quality of Life• Invest in solar/wind/bio• Eco-retrofit the old cities (EU=32% E-savings)• Sustainable by Design• Value of Time
• E4: Exchange –Export Expertise & Experience• Partner with BRICS, Asia & Africa• (Re)Value/adapt expertise to new markets
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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Creative RedesignClean Technology?Focus
Future certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change
Clean Technology?• Close to Zero CO2
• Safe and Affordable• Quality of Life• Geopolitical Security• Future Prosperity• Economic Stability
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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Two reasons• Only Choice• Happiness Economy
Yes weekend!!!
Yes there’s a life after shopping
Only Choice• Redesign our economy
• Rich in happiness – not physical impact• Rich in Q of life – deep in human development
• Choices: personal, corporate,national & global• Less money, Less stuff, more time >>> Happier
Two reasons for Change• No Choice• Old model outdated
• Has delivered• Cannot anymore
Happiness Economy• Work hard, more wealth. Buy more !?• Seychelles Fisherman• Shop less, Live more• More fun, clearer conscience.• More time, better health
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
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Thank youMerci
Gaetan Siew [email protected]
• Resilience• Adaptability• Innovation• Compassion
MIPIM 12-15 March 2013
Amin Maalouf“To reconcile, reunite, adopt, tame,pacify are voluntary acts , are acts of civilisation which needs perseverance and clarity . Acts that are learnt, cultivated. Learning to live together is a never ending battle that is never totally won.”