Lib Dems in a ConDemNation

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April 2015 Liberal Democrats in a ConDemNation: Strategy, identity and survival Alex Marsh School for Policy Studies University of Bristol

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This paper reflects upon the experience of the Liberal Democrats as part of the UK coalition government 2010-2015. It considers the strategy the party adopted and how, combined with its unstable identity, this strategy means the party faces substantial challenges in securing survival.

Transcript of Lib Dems in a ConDemNation

  • April 2015

    Liberal Democrats in a

    ConDemNation: Strategy, identity and survival

    Alex Marsh

    School for Policy Studies

    University of Bristol

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    Liberal Democrats in a ConDemNation: strategy, identity and survival1

    Abstract

    When the Liberal Democrats entered government in May 2010 it was already reasonably well-

    known that coalition is not kind to the junior partner. That is the case in countries where multi-

    party government is not unfamiliar: the political cost in the UK was always likely to be greater.

    The risks were magnified by entering government at a time when making, or supporting,

    unpopular decisions was almost inevitable.

    This paper focuses upon the way in which the Liberal Democrats have managed their role in

    Coalition with the Conservatives, how this has played out with the electorate, and how the party

    moves on from the 2010-2015 Coalition.

    The party adopted a two stage strategy: ownership followed by differentiation. This was always

    going to carry significant risks in a low trust environment. Difficulties in reading the partys role

    in coalition were further compounded by lack of clarity over the identity of the Liberal Democrat

    political project, represented in popular discourse by the battle between Orange Bookers and

    social liberal wing of the party.

    Issues of strategy and unstable identity intersect in the preparations for the 2015 General

    Election, which will be conducted in the febrile atmosphere associated with rising right wing

    populism. The political environment is, arguably, increasingly hostile to many core liberal

    concerns. While prominent liberal politicians might assert we have arrived in a Liberal Age, the

    reception for a distinctively liberal agenda would appear to be characterised by growing sceptical.

    The future of the party as an independent political force is by no means assured.

    1 This is a revised version of a workshop paper presented to the Political Studies Association Annual

    Conference, Sheffield, 30th March-1st April 2015. Thanks to participants in the panel organised by the

    British Liberals and Liberalism Specialist Group for their questions and comments. And thanks, also, to

    members of the Liberal Democrats for comments on an earlier draft. All remaining mistakes of substance

    and interpretation are the responsibility of the author.

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    1. Introduction

    When the Liberal Democrats entered government in May 2010 it was already reasonably well

    known that entering - and exiting - coalition is not necessarily kind to junior partners. The

    history of the British Liberal party and experience elsewhere provide some salutary lessons. In

    countries where multi-party government is relatively familiar the junior partner can find itself

    bearing the brunt of voters dissatisfaction with coalition performance. The political cost in the

    UK was always likely to be greater. There is no modern experience of Westminster coalition to

    draw on, and the advent of coalition throws into question one of the great strengths claimed for

    our electoral system that it delivers decisive results. The risks to the Liberal Democrats were

    magnified by entering government in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. The rhetoric

    of austerity had been embraced by both major political parties, albeit more fervently by the

    Conservatives: it was almost inevitable that the Liberal Democrats would be making, or

    supporting, unpopular decisions.

    This paper focuses upon the way in which the Liberal Democrats have managed their role in

    Coalition with the Conservatives, how this has played out with the electorate, and how the party

    moves on from the 2010-2015 Coalition.

    The party adopted a two stage strategy: ownership followed by differentiation. This was always

    going to carry significant risks in a low trust environment. Difficulties in reading the partys role

    in coalition were further compounded by lack of clarity over the identity of the Liberal Democrat

    political project, represented in popular discourse by the battle between Orange Bookers and

    social liberal wing of the party.

    Issues of strategy and unstable identity intersect in the preparations for the 2015 General

    Election, which will be conducted in the febrile atmosphere associated with rising right wing

    populism. The political environment is, arguably, increasingly hostile to many core Liberal

    Democrat concerns. While prominent liberal politicians might assert we have arrived in a Liberal

    Age (Browne, 2014), the reception for a distinctively liberal agenda would appear to be

    characterised by growing sceptical. The future of the party as an independent political force is by

    no means assured.

    2. Strategy

    Junior partners contemplating going in to coalition face some profound strategic choices. The

    most fundamental question is arguably the stance to adopt on the question of unity versus

    distinctiveness (Boston and Bullock, 2010). The second key question is the strategy towards

    portfolio allocation whether to go for breadth or depth in office holding. Clearly, the two

    questions are interrelated: going for depth in office holding so that particular policy areas are

    clearly owned by the junior partner - makes it easier to demonstrate distinctiveness and

    influence when compared to the alternative strategy of seeking involvement across a range of

    policy areas. On the other hand, it risks the junior partner being perceived as being narrowly

    focused in its concerns and marginal to the broader programme of government.

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    A number of authors have analysed in detail the formation of the Conservative-Liberal

    Democrat coalition, the strategy adopted by the Liberal Democrats, and the implications of

    coalition for the machinery of government (eg. Lee and Beech, 2011; Matthews. 2011). David

    Camerons apparent repositioning of the Conservatives towards the political centre ground

    during the latter 2000s, coupled with the Liberal Democrats being nudged by their leadership

    away from the centre-left (Jones, 2011) had increased the plausibility of a sustainable coalition

    between the two parties. There was a narrowing of the political distance between the parties, as

    indicated by their manifesto commitments (Debus, 2011): indeed there was a notable degree of

    policy overlap. While major barriers to forming coalition had to be overcome in particular

    reconciling the parties positions on voting reform - arriving at a coalition agreement was

    perhaps less painful than expected. This was a period in which David Cameron was championing

    liberal conservatism and the coalition was going to place freedom, fairness and responsibility

    at the heart of its agenda. The parties appeared to share an ideological commitment to enhancing

    freedom, while the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives placed relatively greater emphasis

    upon fairness and responsibility respectively. The resulting coalition agreement represented a

    genuine combination of policy proposals shared by the parties, proposals distinctive to the

    Conservative manifesto, proposals distinctive to the Liberal Democrat manifesto, and proposals

    that had featured in neither manifesto (Matthews, 2011). In terms of portfolio allocation the

    Liberal Democrats appeared to be more strongly represented in the Government than might

    have been predicted on the basis of strict proportionality (Debus, 2011). Cameron was making

    his big, open and comprehensive offer to the Liberal Democrats.

    The Liberal Democrat strategy towards forming the coalition was, firstly, to opt for breadth

    rather than depth in portfolio allocation and, secondly, to prioritize unity over distinctiveness.

    Given that the Liberal Democrats were seeking to overturn the popular perception that as the

    third party they lacked experience of government it is perhaps understandable that they opted to

    seek to demonstrate the ability to work productively in partnership with the Conservatives across

    a range of policy areas by placing junior ministers in several departments. Similarly, given the

    Liberal Democrats emphasis upon constitutional reform, it made sense for the Nick Clegg to

    take the role of Deputy Prime Minister. However, while the Liberal Democrats may have done

    relatively well numerically out of portfolio allocation they held only one of the core executive

    roles (DPM) and by spreading themselves relatively thinly across departments, typically working

    under a Conservative Secretary of State, they set themselves a significant challenge in

    demonstrating distinctiveness and effectiveness. Whether the alternative depth strategy was ever

    a serious proposition is a separate question: the major policy areas where the Liberal Democrats

    might have seen a possibility of demonstrate a distinctive agenda if they were allowed complete

    control education, home affairs, work and pensions, perhaps are policy areas the

    Conservatives were never likely to countenance stepping back from entirely.

    We could get a hint of what might have been possible by looking at the activities of the Liberal

    Democrat-led departments: DECC and BIS. Here there are initiatives such as the Green

    Investment Bank that are genuinely innovative and bear a clear Liberal Democrat stamp. But, we

    might argue, these are relatively peripheral areas of policy from the Conservatives perspective:

    whether the Liberal Democrats would be allowed to pursue a similarly distinctive strategy closer

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    to the heart of government is a moot point. Equally, we can look at totemic policies such as the

    rise in tuition fees and see that Liberal Democrat-led departments were obliged, in a spirit of

    coalition unity, to implement and defend Conservative policy commitments at substantial

    political cost.

    McEnhill (2015) has recently discussed the challenges that the breadth strategy presented to the

    Liberal Democrats in demonstrating distinctiveness in policy areas dominated by the

    Conservatives, focusing on the area of welfare reform. One important point is that the sort of

    roving brief that the Liberal Democrats envisaged for their junior ministers is not one that

    formally exists. So while some Liberal Democrat ministers were kept in the loop by their

    Conservative Secretary of State, others were not: they were expected to stay within the

    boundaries of their ministerial brief (Harvey, 2015). This meant that even though there was a

    Liberal Democrat presence in the department, Liberal Democrat influence over policy could be

    tightly bounded.

    In contrast, where a Conservative-led department has implemented a headline Liberal Democrat

    policy such as the pupil premium or raising income tax thresholds the policy has not only

    been owned by the Conservatives but credited to the Conservatives by substantial sections of the

    public.

    The debate over the wisdom of the breadth rather than depth strategy will no doubt continue.

    Harvey (2015) takes the view that it was precisely the right strategy and that the Liberal

    Democrats should pursue the breadth strategy more vigorously in a future coalition negotiation.

    On the other hand, Goes (2015) labels the Liberal Democrats strategy of taking the role of

    DPM rather than Foreign Secretary as would often be the case in coalition governments in

    continental Europe - a mistake because it meant that the party ended up with limited leverage

    over the coalitions rather unsubtle populist policy towards Europe. A strongly pro-European

    party finds itself in the awkward position of being part of a government that significantly

    increased the risk of Brexit.

    The fact that during the early phases of the coalition the Liberal Democrats prioritized unity over

    distinctiveness meant that the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition was able to address one

    criticism of multi-party government. The agreement of May 2010 did not deliver weak

    government as a result of perpetual horse-trading and compromise. Strong party discipline from

    the Liberal Democrats in particular meant that the government was able to pursue a radical

    agenda renegotiating the role of the state. It set in train structural changes in a whole range of

    policy areas on welfare reform, the National Health Service, planning deregulation, social

    housing, and the defunding of local authority services - that have yet to fully work themselves

    through the system. This was possible in large part because for much of the Parliament the

    Liberal Democrats were willing to put aside dissent, in public at least, and support a wide range

    of Conservative projects.

    As Atkins (2015) has pointed out, this unity relied upon deploying powerful narrative strategies

    that emphasized the parties shared values, the importance of placing the national interest above

    party interest, and the need to put aside inter-party difference in order to battle with the deficit

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    created by a fiscally irresponsible Labour party. In so doing it required the Liberal Democrats

    to abandon some well-established policy positions or suppress a concern for core ideological

    principles for the sake of coalition unity.

    The Liberal Democrats early commitment to coalition unity led to them paying a substantial

    price. Voters and members who had supported the party because its policy platform was to the

    left of Labour abandoned the party. The negative electoral consequences of coalition quickly

    became apparent in substantial losses in local elections and lost deposits in by-elections.

    Only in the last year of the Parliament has the party made any real effort to differentiate from the

    Conservatives. Whether that was the plan from the outset or a response to the fact that the

    Liberal Democrats seemed to be absorbing the vast majority of the political fallout from the

    implementation of the Coalitions austerity-dominated agenda is not entirely clear.

    This two stage strategy of fully owning the coalition agenda of hugging the Conservatives close

    - and then seeking to differentiate was always going to carry significant, and rather obvious, risks

    in an environment where trust in politicians is low. As the junior partner, supporting policies that

    you would in other circumstances oppose comes with coalition territory. Explaining that you are

    doing so under sufferance would at least make it clear what was happening. But keeping your

    disagreements private while showing a unified front with the Conservatives in public, and doing

    so with seeming enthusiasm, means all distinctiveness is rendered invisible. Viewed from the

    outside unity in the national interest and a coup by Orange Book liberals/Cleggite faction of

    yellow Tories can look rather similar, if the party is unable or unwilling to provide a convincing

    narrative to accompany its actions. Liberal Democrat support collapsed as a consequence.

    And once the junior partner moved to differentiate it opened itself up to accusations of

    hypocrisy. The party starts disagreeing with policies that it only a few weeks previously it had

    enthusiastically voted in to law. Sceptical voters might reasonably ask: does that mean you

    werent telling us the truth back then? After the initial damage caused by reneging the key tuition

    fees pledge and reorienting the position on the desirability of rapid deficit reduction (Dommett,

    2013), trust is potentially further undermined. The credibility of all future public

    pronouncements is likely to be questioned.

    3. Identity

    The difficulties in reading the partys role in coalition were further compounded by lack of clarity

    over the identity of the Liberal Democrat political project. This is frequently represented in

    popular discourse as a battle between the Orange Bookers and the social liberal wing of the party

    (referring to Marshall and Laws, 2004, and, for example, Brack et al, 2007, respectively), although

    we can arguably trace debates about whether the party looks predominantly left or right much

    further back into the partys history.

    It would be wrong to see the arrival of Nick Clegg as party leader as representing the dawning of

    an entirely new era in policy or ideological term for the Liberal Democrats. Some of the currents

    in policy thinking that have emerged to prominence were arguably already developing under

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    Charles Kennedy and earlier. Equally it is wrong to think that Orange Bookers or social

    liberals for that matter cleave to a coherent and tightly specified philosophy. In fact, the

    contributions to the Orange Book itself take a range of different positions on questions such as

    the desirability or otherwise of state action and intervention. What is typically referred to as

    Orange Book liberalism that is, the promotion of economic liberalism alongside or, critics

    might argue, above personal, political and social liberalism is most clearly articulated by David

    Laws contribution to the edited collection (Laws, 2004). It is largely a belief in the benefits of

    market mechanisms, driven by non-state actors, in delivering desirable social outcomes. It would

    perhaps be more illuminating to focus on some of the work of the think tank CentreForum or

    the ginger group Liberal Reform in taking this agenda forward than to keep referring back to the

    Orange Book.

    The idea that the Liberal Democrat policy agenda has been taken over by the Orange Bookers

    that there has been a Clegg Coup tends to be treated as relatively uncontroversial in the

    academic literature (Dommett, 2013). Certainly many of the contributors to the Orange Book

    now occupy senior, frontline positions in the party. The assertion of a coup is perhaps more

    controversial in internal party debate. But that is, perhaps, explicable. On the one hand, a core

    tenet of liberalism is tolerance and therefore self-professed liberals tend to be treated as such,

    even where the content of that liberalism starts to look suspiciously like market fundamentalism.

    On the other hand, if one were seeking to effect a coup then a useful discursive strategy would

    be to deny that that is what is happening: that differing policy positions represent no more than

    differences of emphasis. The party leadership has tried to defuse these debates by seeking unity

    behind slogans arguing the party is neither left nor right but liberal. This does not, however,

    bring much greater clarity regarding what the party stands for in a context where most of the

    public debate is framed in one (left-right) dimension.

    Less controversial is the argument that the Liberal Democrats have gone through a process of

    professionalization (Evans and Sanderson-Nash, 2011). The party has a federal structure and

    formally policy making sits with biannual Federal Conferences. However, over time the

    professionalization process has meant that the party has moved from a largely bottom-up

    process towards a more top-down process where the party leadership and the parliamentary

    party are able to shape policy agendas in ways seen as beneficial, using the Federal Conferences

    primarily to ratify such positions and commitments:

    The reality is that increasingly spokespeople are adopting [this] approach to their

    parliamentary portfolios, leaving the conference as more of a washing up exercise that

    brings parliamentarians statements and written policy together (Senior party official cited

    in Evans and Sanderson-Nash, 2011, p486)

    This structural issue has increased salience under the coalition government. While it can plausibly

    be argued that the Liberal Democrats were the party best prepared for the coalition negotiations

    of May 2010, they were less well-prepared for the rigours of policy making in government.

    Biannual Federal Conferences were obviously not going to be sufficiently nimble. It was

    inevitable that in government the party was going to have to respond to emerging issues about

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    which it had no settled policy. But it took a while to develop mechanisms that allowed the party

    to input into decisions so they were not based primarily on views within the leaders inner circle.

    This issue of top-down versus bottom-up goes to the heart of the Liberal Democrats identity.

    On the one hand, the Liberal Democrats internal Bones Commission on party structure noted:

    Leaders define and deliver political strategy, appoint the best teams to support delivery

    and are the focus of the party nationally to communicate and sell our vision of a liberal

    democrat Britain. They need professional support and to be given the freedom to act;

    but they too should continue to face scrutiny (Bones Commission, cited in Evans and

    Sanderson-Nash, 2011, 471).

    That is, the leader is not there to represent the collective views of the membership but to define

    political strategy and articulate a vision of liberal democracy in a way that will resonate with the

    electorate.

    On the other hand, activists emphasize the Liberal Democrats as a federal party because this is a

    key strength which brings authenticity and genuine internal democracy. The party is different

    from the Conservatives and the Labour party because the members make policy: it is central to

    the partys self-identity and self-understanding.

    Coalition has placed the leadership into conflict with the activist base on a number of occasions.

    The parliamentary party has supported a number of policy measures into law only for Federal

    Conference to pass motions either condemning those policies or calling for them to be modified.

    Several motions critical of welfare reform, cuts to legal aid and advice services, and the bedroom

    tax would fall into this category. The party leadership is then in the dilemma of supporting a

    policy in government that conflicts with official party policy. Here again the leadership has

    tended to favour unity over overt conflict with their coalition partners. This is felt particularly

    sharply around the edges of the coalition agreement: policy areas which do not feature in the

    coalition agreement, where Conservative policy proposals conflict with some principle deeply

    held by Liberal Democrat activists, and yet the party leadership supports the proposals into law.

    Civil liberties have provided a number of flash points.

    One of the most intricate examples of the way these tensions play out is the case of the bedroom

    tax. The Liberal Democrats supported the policy into law as part of the welfare reform agenda,

    in the face of criticism. Federal Conference passed a two motions calling for the policy to be

    substantially modified and for mechanisms to mitigate the worst negative impacts to be put in

    place. The first of these motions put the leaderships position of support for the policy in its

    (then) current form at odds with party policy. However, it did allow leverage to be exerted to

    secure some increased protections via Discretionary Housing Payments. Nick Clegg also stated

    that support for the policy would be reviewed when the results of the official interim evaluation

    became available. When these results were finally released having been available within

    government for several months Nick Clegg publicly withdrew the partys support for the policy

    in its current form because it was felt to be perpetrating unacceptable unfairness and hardship. In

    doing so he did little more than bring his public position in line with what was already official

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    party policy. This looked like solidly evidence-based policy, except that almost all the problems

    identified in the interim evaluation had been identified by expert commentators even before the

    policy was implemented. The evaluation provided very little new information. But it provided

    cover for a realignment of policy position in a period where differentiation was becoming a more

    pressing concern.

    There are also lessons here about how and where power is most effectively exercised by the

    junior partner. For example, McEnhill (2015) argues that it was Simon Hughes as deputy party

    leader, outside the Government, who was able to push for concessions on the implementation of

    the bedroom tax rather than Steve Webb as DWP pensions minister. We might reflect on how

    much leverage Hughes was subsequently able to exercise over Chris Graylings agenda which

    many Liberal Democrats roundly condemn for being fundamentally illiberal - once he joined the

    government as an MoJ minister.

    One of the biggest challenges for the Liberal Democrats in coalition has been the realization that

    the foundation upon which it was built a convergence in policy position between the Liberal

    Democrats and David Camerons liberal conservatism or compassionate conservatism was

    shaky. It turned out that the Conservatives modernisation was only skin deep. It also became

    apparent that while the coalition agreement may well have played to Liberal Democrat priorities

    when it came to delivering on that agreement the Conservatives were going to approach it

    through the lens of their own party interest. One trigger for the fraying of coalition relations was

    the way the Conservatives campaigned to ensure that the move to the Alternative Vote was

    rejected. It was a campaign that was conducted in precisely the opposite of the non-partisan and

    non-personal spirit that had been hoped for.

    Coalition politicians have spent five years emphasizing the difficult decisions they have had to

    make to cut the deficit. In 2010 the claims were that fairness is at the heart of those decisions

    and those most in need are most protected. As the threat from the populist right strengthened

    and geopolitical threats from ISIS emerged the Conservative party reverted to a more

    authoritarian and divisive stance. The way in which new compassionate conservatism

    manifested itself in implementation looked rather familiar. In welfare reform it has entailed a

    stigmatising rhetoric and increasingly harsh compulsion and sanctioning. The early coalition

    commitment to freedom, fairness and responsibility has played out rather differently in

    practice (Bell, 2015; Lakin, 2013). As more evidence is gathered it becomes clearer that criticisms

    of policies such as welfare reform are well-founded. The argument that fairness is at the heart of

    policy becomes harder, if not impossible, to sustain.

    The Preamble to the Liberal Democrat constitution states that: We champion the freedom,

    dignity and well-being of individuals and that no one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance

    or conformity. Many of the reforms that the Coalition has overseen for example, changes to

    disability benefits, work capability assessments, the benefit sanctioning regime, the effective

    removal of rights to many types of legal redress - are policies that can be seen as challenging core

    principles. Had the Liberal Democrats been in opposition they would most likely have

    condemned these policies in the strongest possible terms.

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    As a consequence, while most party members continue to support the decision to enter coalition

    with the Conservatives, fewer are content with the way the coalition has gone about

    implementing its agenda.

    4. Survival

    Issues of strategy and unstable identity intersect in the preparations for the 2015 General

    Election, which will be conducted in the febrile atmosphere associated with rising right wing

    populism. The political environment is, arguably, increasingly hostile to many core Liberal

    Democrat concerns. The 2014 European Elections which the Liberal Democrats approached

    from an unambiguously pro-European perspective demonstrated the scale of the problems

    facing the party. Similarly, messages on migration, drug liberalisation, or prioritising freedom

    over the desires of the security state would appear to run against the grain.

    The Liberal Democrats can identify a long list of Coalition policies that have the Liberal

    Democrat stamp all over them. But most of the headline policies upon which the coalition

    government will be judged on NHS reorganisation, welfare reform, immigration, security, and

    most notable on the economy carry the Conservative hallmark. That is perhaps inevitable for

    the junior partner. It comes as no surprise. Indeed, writing presciently not long after the

    formation of the coalition Stuart (2011, p51) argues:

    The Liberal Democrats became too fixated on the minutiae of what they had gained in

    terms of policy concessions from the Conservatives, particularly their long-term

    obsession with electoral reform. What they seemed unable to realize at the time was that

    their central concession to the Conservatives on the economy agreeing to cut the

    deficit further and faster than Labour trumped all their anorak manifesto commitments

    put together. Nor were they able to foresee that they would take nearly all of the blame

    and gain virtually none of the political credit for taking the tough decisions on spending

    within the Coalition.

    While it may not be a surprise that the coalition agenda has a Conservative flavour, in many cases

    those policies not only conflict with principles that Liberal Democrats hold dear but are badly

    thought through and/or poorly implemented.

    The challenge for the Liberal Democrats is to tell the story of coalition in ways that get beyond

    the accusation that they have been useful idiots propping up a radically illiberal Conservative

    government and highlight the Governments positive, liberal achievements. In the public mind

    these are unlikely ever to outweigh the broader thrust of policy originating with the dominant

    partner. But that highlights the point that the UK electorate is yet to fully recognise and accept

    the nature and limitations of coalition government.

    It is hard, in this context, to see beyond the party suffering badly at the polls in May 2015. The

    main question is how badly. While the political commentariat might argue that the party is going

    to suffer a collapse in support, examination of its presence on the ground in key seats with an

    incumbent MP at least indicates that it remains relatively healthy (Johnson, 2014). Its

    performance at the General Election might therefore turn out to be better than that assumed on

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    the basis of national opinion polling. It may well be that one of the Liberal Democrats most high

    profile failures in constitutional reform the AV referendum will mean that the party does not

    do quite as badly as it otherwise might.

    The partys challenge now and for the future is how to reconcile its actions in coalition with its

    fundamental principles and how to credibly rearticulate what the party stands for in a way that

    will be given a hearing by the electorate.

    At the same time, given that the likely outcome of the May 2015 general election is a hung

    parliament there is a question of how it should respond. If the Liberal Democrats were to

    participate in another coalition then how can they retain greater distinctiveness and a stronger

    sense of identity? A second coalition with the Conservatives that isnt conducted on different

    terms could spell the end of the Liberal Democrats as an independent party, in a replay of the

    history of the Liberal party. Would a coalition with Labour mean that the party will be branded

    unprincipled and only interested in clinging on to power? Or does the partys survival ultimately

    depend on it not participating in a second coalition and rebuilding its identity in opposition?

    It is clear that thoughts within the party are turning to who will succeed Nick Clegg, either if the

    party loses a lot of seats, Clegg himself loses his seat, or his head is the price for the formation of

    a coalition. A clear component of the manoeuvres that are being played out in public by potential

    successors is the future direction of the party. Tim Farron is seen as centre-left, looking towards

    Labour, and a favourite among many activists and members. He could be seen as taking the

    party back in the direction from whence it has come. The other potential leaders Norman

    Lamb or Ed Davey are much more likely to be seen as trusted with the stewardship of the

    worldview Nick Clegg has tried to promote. The outcome of the election in May will very likely

    have a profound effect the future trajectory of the party both in terms of where it locates itself

    ideologically and whether it has a long-term future.

    If the electoral arithmetic is such that the party is in a position to opt for coalition the party

    needs to think carefully about how it makes sense of itself. There are unresolved issues about

    how party policy relates to coalition policy. Greater thought needs to be given to how the party

    at large can be helped to understand what is going on when the Parliamentary party not only

    doesnt follow party policy but actively votes against it. There may well be reasons. It may well be

    tied up with strategy and the long game; with tactics and the realpolitik of coalition. But there

    needs to be a better way of communicating this. Otherwise, Federal Conferences increasingly

    become a charade. The alternative is to recognize that the bottom-up model is being supplanted

    for a top-down model that looks rather more like those used by the other parties. This may be

    judged the only way to ensure clarity of vision and message discipline. But it would precipitate an

    identity crisis in the party.

    5. Conclusion

    The Liberal Democrats experience of coalition government 2010-2015 has highlighted the

    potential costs of coalition for the junior partner. However, those costs must be interpreted in

    the lightly of the strategies adopted breadth not depth, unity followed by differentiation. These

    were distinctive choices, for reasons that were plausible at the time. But they are clearly not the

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    only choices. In light of the difficulties the Liberal Democrats are having demonstrating the

    difference they have made in coalition restraining the worst impulses of the Conservatives may

    be a valuable service, but it isnt an easy sell to the electorate it is tempting to argue that the

    party made strategic mistakes. It is, however, hard to see whether the alternative approaches

    depth, differentiation would have played out any better either for the party or the country.

    The choices that may face the party after the election in May 2015 are no more obvious. There

    are risks in all directions. Entering coalition again will mean continued influence over policy in

    the short term but a more problematic long term future. Returning to opposition might allow the

    party to recover some of its distinctive identity, but means that it foregoes the opportunity to

    influence policy in a period where a concern for fairness and liberty are going to be a key

    counterweight, whichever major party emerges as the biggest after the election.

    The Liberal Democrats have undergone a crash course in coalition government since 2010. How

    or indeed whether they get the opportunity to put that knowledge to use after May 2015

    remains to be seen.

    I am reminded of the words of John Curtice concluding a piece written in the late 1980s:

    Its ability to regain a long-term position as a party of government must be in doubt for

    so long as there is a widespread ignorance amongst the electorate of just what the British

    Liberal Party and the Alliance believe in. (Curtice, 1988, p122)

    It may be that we find ourselves back where the party began.

    6. References

    Adkins, J. (2015) Together in the national interest: the rhetoric of unity and the formation of

    the Cameron-Clegg government, The Political Quarterly, online first.

    Bell, E. (2015) Soft power and freedom under the coalition, Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan.

    Boston, J. and Bullock, D. (2010) Multi-party governance: Managing the unity-distinctiveness

    dilemma in executive coalitions, Party Politics, 1-20.

    Brack, D., Grayson, R. and Howarth, D. (eds) (2007) Reinventing the state: social liberalism for the 21st

    century, London: Politicos.

    Browne, J. (2014) Race plan, London: Reform.

    Curtice, J. (1988) Great Britain Social liberalism reborn?, in E.J. Kirchner (ed) Liberal parties in

    Western Europe, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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    About the author

    Alex Marsh is Professor of Public Policy at the University of Bristol. He has been Head of the

    School for Policy Studies since 2007. Alexs research and writing has encompassed a wide

    range of topics in the fields of housing studies, public policy and regulation. He is currently

    on the Advisory Board for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation Housing and Poverty Programme

    and for What Works Scotland.

    Between 2005 and 2009 Alex has been managing editor of Housing Studies, the leading

    international academic journal in the field. He continues as a member of the journals

    Management Board. He is a trustee of the Housing Studies Charitable Trust.

    Alex worked part-time as a Visiting Academic Consultant to the Public Law team at the Law

    Commission between 2006 and 2010. His work with the Commission addressed compliance

    issues in the private rented sector and systems of redress against public bodies.

    Between 2004 and 2012 Alex was a trustee of Brunelcare, a Bristol-based charity providing

    housing, care and support for older people. For six years he chaired Brunelcare's Audit and

    Scrutiny Committee. In October 2013 he joined the board of Curo Group as a Non-Executive

    Director.

    All views expressed here are personal. They should not be attributed to any of the

    organisations with which Alex is associated.

    www.alex-marsh.net

    The material in this note is licensed under a

    Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.