LEV A. PUSTIL’NIK 1, GREGORY YOM DIN 2 1- Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, Tel Aviv...
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Transcript of LEV A. PUSTIL’NIK 1, GREGORY YOM DIN 2 1- Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, Tel Aviv...
LEV A. PUSTIL’NIK 1, GREGORY YOM DIN
2
1- Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, Tel Aviv University & Israel Space Agency, Israel2- Golan Research Institute, Haifa University, Israel
Part 1: Solar Physics 223: 335–356, 2004.Part 2: Solar Physics 224: 473–481, 2004.
ВОЗМОЖНОЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ КОСМИЧЕНСКОЙ ПОГОДЫ ВОЗМОЖНОЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ КОСМИЧЕНСКОЙ ПОГОДЫ НА ЗЕРНОВЫЕ РЫНКИ: ВЧЕРА, СЕГОДНЯ, ЗАВТРАНА ЗЕРНОВЫЕ РЫНКИ: ВЧЕРА, СЕГОДНЯ, ЗАВТРА
I. History of the problemHistory of the problem1. Forerunner (“optimistic”) period (1700-1880)Jonathan Swift (1726) - father of the European satire – Gulliver in
LAPUTA – described mass-phobia of sunspot influence on decreasing of solar irradiance and next shortage of crop – obstruction in Royal Society.
William Hershel (1801) –father of European Astronomy - first compared sunspot data and prices data of Adam Smith :”five prolonged periods of few sunspots coincident with costly wheat” – ridicule title in Royal Society-”King of Absurdi”
William Stanley Jevons (1875) – (father of Neoclassical Economic Theory and of Economical Cycles) suggested that: “11-year sunspot cycle synchronize stock panics by wheat prices drop” and made first forecast with terrible sequences Great Britain economics – effect of mass psychology of panic in stock speculation.
0
50
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200
250
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450
500
1800 1822 1844 1866 1888
William Jevons and financial panics
yellow arrow - panics, blue line – sunspot number
2. “Pessimistic” period
Reasons of the mass skepticism is very simple: solar irradiance is “solar constant” (ΔF/F<0.1%) and does not change with sunspots
3. Modern rehabilitations of the problem Magnetic component of solar activity as new factor of influence on space weather:• Sunspots => coronal heating& flares => space weather (solar wind, cosmic ray, magnetosphere) =>>=>> weather (cloudiness, NorthAtlanticOscillations, …) =>> shortage of crop =>>> market reaction on deficit of
unique and limited product (food)=>> Price Bursts initiated by Space Weather Abnormalities
• Nonlinearity properties (catastrophically like reaction) are possible in several transitions of this chain: “Space weather – Earth weather”, “Earth weather abnormalities – crop’ shortage”, “price reaction on food (wheat) shortage”. This non-linearity (threshold type transition) is source of possible price burst reaction.
• “It is possible in principle!” does not means that it has place in real life! What is necessary and sufficient combination of condition, what will be enough for price sensitivity to space weather variations?
ИКИ-2010
WHEAT PRICE may work (in principle) as possible SENSITIVE PROXY to space weather influences on the Earth weather!!!
II. Illustration of main elements of proposed causal chain
• First elementFirst element (“solar activity – space weather”) is now undoubted:
– Sunspot => solar corona => solar wind modulation =>
=> cosmic ray/magnetosphere modulation
• Second elementSecond element: COSMIC RAY and MAGNETOSPHERE influence on the EARTH WEATHER (data of last decade!):
– CR influence on cloudiness (inhomogeneous in time and position on the Earth and in height of atmosphere)
– Correlation of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with “aa” , “pc” indexes of magnetosphere activity – possible influence on global atmospheric circulation
• Third elementThird element: WHEAT PRODUCTION in regions of high risk
agriculture (SENSITIVE TO CLOUDINESS, RAINS, DROUGHTS,…)
will have threshold type sensitivity to weather change (short time weather
abnormalities may lead to catastrophic drop of crop (first of all – wheat).
• Fourth elementFourth element: A WHEAT MARKET with limited external supply
has threshold type SENSITIVITY TO WHEAT/FOOD PRODUCTION
with boundary states where small changes in wheat supply could lead to
bursts of prices.
Magnetosphere (aa) reaction on solar activity
Cosmic Ray flux (CR) reaction on solar activity
CR-Cloudiness correlation above North Atlantic
NAO <0
COAR-208
NAO >0
Three Necessary Conditions for realization of scenario “space weather – earth Three Necessary Conditions for realization of scenario “space weather – earth weather-crop-prices”:weather-crop-prices”:1. Location inLocation in region of high sensitivity to Space Weather-Earth Weather influence (HSEW-SW).2. Location inLocation in high risk agriculture zone (HRAZ) sensitive to weather (rains, droughts, cloudiness) 3. Location inLocation in region with high market sensitivity to deficit of crop (limitation or absence of external supply or high transportation expenses on this supply).
Problem of identification of effect caused by strong background variations of another nature, instability of
sensitivity of region in time and location, time lag between different elements of influences, …) .
Three possible methods for identification of influences caused by space weather-solar activity:a) Comparison of distributions of intervals between price’ bursts and sunspot minimums b) Price asymmetry for Maximum and Minimum states of solar activity
c) Dummy variable analysis
First Attempt:
Past time: Medieval England
1.Location in North Atlantic region of high “space weather-cloudiness” sensitivity
2.High risk wheat agriculture – catastrophically sensitivity to summer rains in Medieval England
3.Isolated wheat market of England as island with very limited external supply from Continental Europe
Expected type of price reaction (minimum of solar activity>maximum CR flux>maximal cloudiness and summer rains> drop of the crop>price burst
ИКИ-2010
Hystogram of the Sunspot Min-Min intervals
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d=
<8
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d=
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<d
Intervals
Nu
mb
er o
f in
terv
als Max & Min moments of 10Be and relative prices level in the
1580-1700 year (Maunder Minimum)
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1588 1599 1610 1621 1632 1643 1654 1665 1676 1687 1698 1709Years
Rel
ativ
e P
rice
Histogram of Wheat Price Bursts Intervals
02468
10121416
d=<8
8 <d
=<9
9<d
=<10
10<d
=<11
11<d
=<12
12<d
=<13
13<d
=<14
14<d
=<15
15<d
intervals
Num
ber o
f int
erva
ls
Database Median Average Standard deviation
Min-Min intervals for
Sunspots
10.7 11.02 1.53
Intervals between bursts of
Wheat Price
11.00 11.14 1.44
Wheat Price Assymetry for MaMax-Min state
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Cycle number from 1600
Pri
ce d
ifere
nce
Histogram of intervals between minimums of sunspot number
Histogram of intervals between wheat price bursts
Wheat Price asymmetry during Maunder minim (white symbols – prices in maximum states of solar
activity, black symbols – prices in minimums of solar activity). For all period prices in minimums solar
activity more then in maximums:
100% MAX-Min asymmetry
Confidence level of coincidence of mean intervals between price bursts and
sunspot cycle >99.9%
Wheat Price bursts in Meddle Age England Price difference for maximal and
minimal states of solar activity in studied period -100% asymmetry
In Past-1: Manifestations of Space Weather influence in Wheat Manifestations of Space Weather influence in Wheat
Prices of Medieval England (Rogers: 1250-1715)Prices of Medieval England (Rogers: 1250-1715)
ИКИ-2010
• 100 wheat markets of 14 countries of Europe for 600 years from Major World Crop Areas Database.
• For detailed analysis we used dummy variable analysis from Suits D. (1957) as most appropriate to our case. As resulted parameter we use confidence level of reliability of connection between solar activity and wheat markets reactions. We used for our analysis specific period 1590-1702 of small ice period in Europe (covered famous Maunder minimum of solar activity).
Significance level of Min-Max years of solar activities for different wheat markets in 1590-1702
Country City Significance as P-value Min SA Max SA
England London 0.0001 0.0001 England Exeter
Netherlands Arnhem 0.3839 0.3488
Netherlands Leiden 0.0428 0.5699 Belgium Bruges 0.1773 0.0129 France Douai 0.0756 0.0289 France Paris 0.4138 0.1619 France Toulouse 0.8563 0.4170 France Angers 0.3227 0.2953 France Beziers 0.9581 0.7929 France Grenoble 0.7310 0.5903 France Strasbourg 0.4748 0.7297
France Aix en
Provance 0.6434 0.9307
Germany Cologne 0.9546 0.1395 Germany Wels 0.2881 0.1161
Germany Wels 0.3126 0.1310
Italy Bassano 0.5565 0.0186 Italy Siena 0.6837 0.8518 Italy Naples 0.2190 0.0085 Italy Udine 0.6889 0.0695 Spain Valence 0.0620 0.6130
Map of the Europe with markets, sensitive to space weather (marked by stars). For case of high reliability of connection between minimums of solar activity and wheat prices we used red marks with size proportional to confidence level (London, Exeter-England; Leiden-Netherlands); for high sensitivity to maximums of solar activity (Napoly, Bassano-Italy) we used yellow stars.
Type of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather depends on climate of the studied market: markets close to North Atlantic with weather controlled by NAO and high level of cloudiness - rains (England, Netherlands) the most unfavorable state for wheat production produced by minimal state of solar activity; and in opposite, for markets controlled by hot torrid climate of North Africa (South Italy, Spain) market are more sensitive to solar maximal activity
Most part of the European markets are absolutely indifferent to solar activity state, what is expected result of action of one from 3 factors: location in region of low sensitivity of local weather to space weather, non-critical state of wheat agriculture with large resource of stability to weather abnormalities in this regions, and access to external wheat suppliers suppressed markets sensitivity to deficit of local crop.
99.9%
In Past-2: Identification of the regions, with wheat markets sensitive to space weather in past.
ИКИ-2010
19801989
1986
1913
1917
1923
1928
1933
19371944
1947 19541957
1964
1976
1968
-0.100
0.400
0.900
1.400
1.900
2.400
2.900
3.400
3.900
4.400
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Is Space Weather influence on Wheat Prices object only for historical interest or
it has place in present timein present time in spite of globalization and technological progress?
Wheat Prices Assymetry relative sunspot Maximum-Minimum state
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
12345678Cycle Number from 1908
Pri
ces
dif
fere
nc
es
Durum area in North Dakota (3% of USA square=70% durum)
Example: Wheat (durum) Price Asymmetry for MAX-MIN states of solar activity is reliable with high confidence level >97.5 % in USA even in our time (1910-1992). Possibly, it is unexpected result of extremely high concentration of main durum crop in small area (3% of USA territory in North Dakota produce 70% of all crop) This location is zone with high sensitivity to North Atlantic Oscillation effects.
ИКИ-2010
Famines, mortality and sunspots: Past Time in Iceland and Present –Future Time in Africa
Famines in Africa
1957
1947
1937
1928
1917
1990
1968
1979
1905
2000
1999
1993
1982
0
70
140
210
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 year
sun
spo
t nu
mb
er
0.0E+00
5.0E+06
1.0E+07
1.5E+07
Normalysed solar activity with Livestock reduce events in space of normalised phase of solar activity (probability of random realisation
of observed distribution in phase space is lower: P < (1/3)6<10-3
0
20
40
60
80
100
-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Normalised Phase Relative Max-Min state of Solar Activity
Nor
mal
ised
avt
ivit
y le
vel
Iceland 1700-2000 years: Livestook Reduction, Feedstuff deficite,
Human Population Declines (from Daniel Vassey, 1991) and Sunspots number
1888
1883
18671813
1804
17840
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40
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80
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120
140
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1700
1750
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1850
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1950
2000year
sun
spo
ts
ИКИ-2010
Conclusions Conclusions on possibleon possible influence of the space weather through the Earth influence of the space weather through the Earth
Weather in their Earth wheat production and pricesWeather in their Earth wheat production and prices
PAST TIME and PRESENT TIME: Space Weather influence on the wheat market through the earth weather modulation
had place in the past and has place in present time in the selected regions where all 3 necessary conditions were and are satisfied.
FUTURE (or possible effects of the Global warming / fast climate change on the possible sensitivity of agriculture production to space weather influence.
• Global warming observed last decades may change drastically agriculture conditions
on main part of the Earth. The areas, what was in the past far from “threshold state” of the sensitivity to weather state will change agriculture production, during short historical time interval may change its state to state of the “high risk agriculture zone”.
• Evidently, that for these “high risk regions” we may wait increasing of sensitivity of wheat/agriculture markets to external factors (space weather/solar activity) modulated cloudiness, rainy, cyclone circulation and other.
• From the other side, the regions of high sensitivity to space weather may change its state or in “unfit for agriculture generally” with catastrophic sequences for population, or, in opposite to change its state to favorable for stable agriculture activity (it dependence on the sign of global changes)
Possible solution – Joseph’ Strategy in Ancient Egypt!Who is warned – he is armed!
More detailed analysis of expected change in sensitivity of local markets to space weather in result of global warming and climate change (with shift of numerous agriculture regions to “high weather risk state” is matter of detailed analysis which will be present in the next publication.
References."INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE STATE OF THE WHEAT
MARKET IN MEDIEVAL ENGLAND", LEV PUSTIL’NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics 223: 335–356, 2004.© 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers
"SPACE CLIMATE MANIFESTATION IN EARTH PRICES – FROM MEDIEVAL ENGLAND UP TO MODERN U.S.A.", LEV PUSTIL’NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics, 224: 473–481 © Springer 2005
Famines in Africa
1957
1947
1937
1928
1917
1990
1968
1979
1905
2000
1999
1993
1982
0
70
140
210
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 year
suns
pot n
umbe
r
0.0E+00
5.0E+06
1.0E+07
1.5E+07
ИКИ-2010
y = 0.3281*N
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10N-cycle number
Prof
it fo
r cy
cle
Prices fatPrices leanAccumulated profitLinear (Accumulated profit)
What may it help us ? Who is warned – he is armed! Simulation of "Josef strategy" for small ice period 1600-1703:(Josef interpretation of Pharaoh dream about 7 good kine (cows) and 7 thin and ill kine (cows)
as "seven good years and... seven empty ears blasted with the east wind shall be seven years of famine” – TANAKH-BIBLE, Genesis, 41/26-27) and the next market regulation prevented catastrophic sequences of seven years of famine for Egypt people.
back
ИКИ-2010
Gulliver's Travels by Jonathan Swift, 1726
PART III. A VOYAGE TO LAPUTA, BALNIBARBI, LUGGNAGG, GLUBBDUBDRIB, AND
JAPAN. These People are under continual Disquietudes, never enjoying a Minute's Peace of Mind; and their Disturbances proceed from Causes which very little affect the rest of Mortals. Their Apprehensions arise from several Changes they dread in the Celestial Bodies. For Instance; that the Earth by the continual Approaches of the Sun towards it, must in Course of Time be absorbed or swallowed up. That the Face of the Sun will by Degrees be encrusted with its own Effluvia, and give no more Light to the World (Hershel, 1801) That, the Earth very narrowly escaped a Brush from the Tail of the last Comet, which would have infallibly reduced it to Ashes; and that the next, which they have calculated for One and Thirty Years hence, will probably destroy us. For, if in its Perihelion it should approach within a certain Degree of the Sun, (as by their Calculations they have Reason to dread) it will conceive a Degree of Heat ten Thousand Times more intense than that of red hot glowing Iron; and in its Absence from the Sun, carry a blazing Tail Ten Hundred Thousand and Fourteen Miles long; through which if the Earth should pass at the Distance of one Hundred Thousand Miles from the Nucleus or main Body of the Comet, it must in its Passage be set on Fire, and reduced to Ashes. That the Sun daily spending its Rays without any Nutriment to supply them, will at last be wholly consumed and annihilated; which must be attended with the Destruction of this Earth, and of all the Planets that receive their Light from it. ……………………
This Load-stone is under the Care of certain Astronomers, who from Time to Time give it such Positions as the Monarch directs. They spend the greatest Part of their Lives in observing the celestial Bodies, which they do by the Assistance of Glasses, far excelling ours in Goodness. For, although their largest Telescopes do not exceed three Feet, they magnify much more than those of a Hundred with us, and shew the Stars with greater Clearness. This Advantage hath enabled them to extend their Discoveries much farther than our Astronomers in Europe. They have made a Catalogue of ten Thousand fixed Stars, whereas the largest of ours do not contain above one third Part of that Number. They have likewise discovered two lesser Stars, or Satellites, which revolve about Mars; whereof the innermost is distant from the Center of the primary Planet exactly three of his Diameters, and the outermost five; the former revolves in the space of ten Hours, and the latter in Twenty-one and an Half; so that the Squares of their periodical Times, are very near in the same Proportion with the Cubes of their Distance from the Center of Mars; which evidently shews them to be governed by the same Law of Gravitation, that influences the other heavenly Bodies (1877 August 12 by Hall).
Pre-forerunner
backИКИ-2010
Reasons for the mass skepticisms were: 1. Why it is so local?2. Solar Irradiance is “SOLAR CONSTANT” (ΔF/F<0.1%).
What does changed in last years?What does changed in last years?Magnetic component of solar activity as factor of influence:
Sunspots > coronal heating& flares > solar wind > cosmic ray & magnetosphere>
> weather (cloudiness, NAO) > shortage of crop > price burstИКИ-2010
Cosmic Ray – cloudiness: sensitivity of CR-Cloud relation extremely inhomogeneous on the Earth (spots of sensitivity) and this distribution possibly is variable in time
?
Svensmark and Friis-Christinsen (1997-1999)
Laut 2003
ИКИ-2010
Correlation NAO-”aa”, NAO-PC indexes Lukyanova et al. (Solar Physics,2004)
RPC-NAO> 0.7
Raa-NAO=0.6
ИКИ-2010
Medieval England example: (statistics of intervals)
Hystogram of Price Bursts Intervals
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4
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8
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d=<8
8 <d
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Intervals
Num
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Hystogram of the Sunspot Min-Min intervals
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d=
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Intervals
Nu
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ИКИ-2010
Max-Min Asymmetry of wheat price level in England for 1600-1700 relative solar activity from 10Be in Greenland ice
• Consistent differences (asymmetry) in prices at moments of maximum and minimum states of solar activity (1600-1700). White and black triangles are prices in the moment of the maximum and minimum of solar activity from 10Be. White and black rectangles are prices averaged for 3-years intervals centered on moments of maximum and minimum.
• W = (1/2)9 < 0.2%
Max & Min moments of 10Be and relative prices level in the 1580-1700 year (Maunder Minimum)
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
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0.8
1
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1588 1599 1610 1621 1632 1643 1654 1665 1676 1687 1698 1709Years
Rela
tiv
e P
ric
e
Min-Max Price Assymetry for Maunder minimum
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Cycle number from 1600
Price
bur
st
ИКИ-2010
Consumables basket –England, 700 yearsABS( relative differences of prices on consumables)
1711
16991662
1650
1597
1587
1557
1483
1430
1439
1370
1317
12951339
13521363
0
0,275
0,55
0,825
1,1
1250 1360 1470 1580 1690
time
AB
S(
delt
a(p
rice o
n
co
nsu
mab
les)) Histogram of Composite Prisces Bursts Intervals
02468
10
7<=T
<8
8<T=
<9
9<T=
<10
10<T
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11<T
=<12
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=<14
14<T 15
intervals
Num
ber o
f in
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als
Histogram of Wheat Price Bursts Intervals
02468
10121416
d=<8
8 <d
=<9
9<d
=<10
10<d
=<11
11<d
=<12
12<d
=<13
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15<d
intervals
Num
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terv
als
Hystogram of the Sunspot Min-Min intervals
0
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d=
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8 <
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<d
Intervals
Nu
mb
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als
Database Median Average Standard deviation
Min-Min interval for Sunspots
10.7 11.02 1.53
Wheat Price bursts intervals
11.00 11.14 1.44
Consumable basket bursts
11.00 10.5 1.28
Database Median Average Standard deviation
Min-Min interval for Sunspots
10.7 11.02 1.53
Wheat Price bursts intervals
11.00 11.14 1.44
Consumable basket bursts
11.00 10.5 1.28
ИКИ-2010
Manifestations of Space Weather in Prices
Histograms of Intervals Interval’s Statistics Max-Min Price Asymmetry
Hystogram of the Sunspot Min-Min intervals
0
2
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8
10
12
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d=
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8 <
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<d
Intervals
Nu
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als
Histogram of Wheat Price Bursts Intervals
02468
10121416
d=<8
8 <d
=<9
9<d
=<10
10<d
=<11
11<d
=<12
12<d
=<13
13<d
=<14
14<d
=<15
15<d
intervals
Num
ber o
f int
erva
ls
Histogram of Composite Prisces Bursts Intervals
02468
10
7<=T
<8
8<T=
<9
9<T=
<10
10<T
=<11
11<T
=<12
12<T
=<13
13<T
=<14 14
<T 15
intervals
Numb
er of
interv
als
Database Median Average Standard deviation
Min-Min interval for Sunspots
10.7 11.02 1.53
Wheat Price bursts intervals
11.00 11.14 1.44
Consumable basket bursts
11.00 10.5 1.28 Wheat Prices Assymetry relative sunspot
Maximum-Minimum state
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
12345678Cycle Number from 1908
Pric
es d
iffer
ence
s
Wheat Price Assymetry for MaMax-Min state
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Cycle number from 1600
Pric
e d
ifere
nce
ИКИ-2010
Data for Analysis
• 450 years database on agricultural prices P(t) in England for 1259-1702 from Prof. Rogers (1887).
• 700 years database on consumable basket price - E.H. P. Brown and S.V. Hopkins; Economica-New Series, Vol. XXIII, N.89-90, p.296-314, November 1956
• 20-th century Prices on durum wheat in USA -USDA - NASS Prices Received by Commodity, Historic Data Series, and Indexes, 6/24/94
• Moments of maximums/minimums of sunspots TMax(t), TMin(t) for years 1610 - 2000 from NOAO Satellite and Information Center at ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/maxmin.new
• Data on solar activity max/min from isotope 10Be in Greenland for the years 1600-1700 from Beer et al. (1998) and Usoskin et al. (2001).
ИКИ-2010
Solar Cycle is not stable!Minimum - Minimum intervals for
Sunspot number cycle 8,2
15
11
10 1
1
13,5
10
8,5
14
11
,5
10
,5
11
10
,2 11
,3
9 9,2
13
,6
12
,3
12
,7
10
,6
9,6
12
,5
11
,2
11
,7
10
,7 12
,1
11
,9
10
10
,2
10
,4
10
,1
10
,6
11
,6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1816
11
16
34
16
55
16
80
16
98
17
24
17
45
17
67
17
85
18
11
18
34
18
56
18
79
19
02
19
24
19
44
19
65M
in-M
in i
nte
rv
als
(y
ea
rs)
1.a.
Minimums of solar spots number relative 11-year grids
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
17
12
17
23
17
34
17
45
17
56
176
7
177
8
178
9
180
0
18
11
18
22
18
33
18
44
18
55
18
66
18
77
18
88
18
99
191
0
192
1
19
32
194
3
19
54
19
65
19
76
19
87
19
98
sp
ots
nu
mb
er i
n m
inim
um
1.b.
ИКИ-2010
Price Formation
METEOROLOGY long-time variation
and noise like disturbances
POLITICAL ACTIVITY:
Government’s investitures, import, control of high price limit.Revolutions, wars.
WHEAT PRICES BURSTS
MARKET’S DEMAND
WHEAT PRODUCTIVITY
FREE MARKET EXPORT and INVESTURES
(include wheat square and technology development )
TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS
long time evolution with step-like transition
(agriculture, genetic engineering ,mechanisms,…)
WEATHER CONDITIONS(cloudiness, rainfalls, server winters, torrid
summers and droughts)
FLUX OF GALAXY COSMIC RAYS
SOLAR ACTIVITY
SOLAR WIND
ИКИ-2010
Phase Analysis
• The hypothesis that the distribution of the phases is uniform can be rejected on a significance level >99% for price bursts and >99.9% for minimums of solar activity.
Price Bursts Phase Hystogram for period P=11.14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5Phase Bins
Num
ber in B
in
Solar Minimums Phase Hystogram for period P=11.02 year
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5Phase bins
Nu
mb
er i
n b
in
00
00
Ttt
Ttt ii
i int