Lecture 6 GEOG 102, Population

8/2/2019 Lecture 6 GEOG 102, Population

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Geographical studies of population

Population refers to the total number of people in adefined territory at a particular time or during a period.

Major sources of information on population are: Censusdata, birth and death recordsand records on emigration

and immigration. Geographical studies on population focus on the number

(size), composition, trends and distribution of humanbeings in relation to variations in conditions over thesurface of the earth.

These conditions relate to food production, industrialproduction, pollution, health conditions, consumption ofnatural resources and levels of development.


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POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Population data, such as composition andstructure, are important for nationaldevelopment planning

Population distribution is important indetermining the provision and location ofcommunity facilities such as education,health etc.

Population density influences environmentaldegradation and living standards


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MEASURES OF POPULATION DENSITY

Crude or Arithmetic Density: The number of

people per unit area of land.

Population = x km.

Area

Another way of making population density

more relevant is by expressing it in relation topressure on arable or agricultural land. This is

called physiographic density.


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GLOBAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

Approximately, 75% of the worlds population live

on 5% of the earth surface.

Major population clusters are found in East Asia,

South East Asia, Europe and North America.

The East Asia zone is made up of Japan, China,

Taiwan and the Koreas. Together they account

for 25% of global population. Europe takes careof 13%. Other regions like East Coast of North

America take care of 18%.


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Population Distribution

Global distribution of population among

continents is represented below:

Asia 60.7%

Europe 12%

Africa - 13.2%

Americas 13.6% Oceania 5%


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FACTORS AFFECTING POPULATION

DISTRIBUTION

Terrain characteristics/Relief: People are

concentrated in low lying areas. Mountain

ranges such as Himalayas, Rockies and Alps

are too cold to attract large populations.

Climate Arid areas and very cold regions,

such as Antarctica and Greenland, are less

populated.


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Soil conditions Fertile soils and water forirrigation encourage high population densities.The highest rural densities in the world are

found on rich alluvial soils of the Nile. Water availability and accessibility

Vegetation- Inaccessible rainforest and

tropical diseases account for the very lowdensities in Amazonia and the Zaire Basin.

Historical factors


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Areas with low population

Generally, areas which are sparsely populated includethe following:

Dry lands: Theylack sufficientwater to grow crops tosupport high population densities

e.g. deserts Sahara, Arabia, Kalahari deserts Wetlands: These are landsthat receive very high

amount of rainfall and are characterised by hightemperatures throughout the year.Equatorial forests.

Amazonia forest in Brazil. Cold landse.g. territory near the north and south

poles

Highlands


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Areas with high population

Low fertile lands

Industrial towns

Capital cities Areas with rich agricultural soils


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OVERPOPULATION

This is when a country has more people than

its physical and human resources can support

with adequate living standard.

Causes: High birth rate and declining death

rate. In developing countries, it is also caused

by high levels of immigration.

Advantages : A potential labour force and

potentially large market.


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Social and economic Problems of

overpopulation

Poor housing

unemployment;

food shortage;

pressure on public facilities;

congestion; overcrowding and development of

slums;

sanitation problems;

Social vices (e.g. armed robbery and prostitution


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Measures to control over population

Increase in food production

Birth control, by use of modern contraceptives

Out migration Housing projects

Creation of job avenues


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Under-population

Population is less than the resources

Causes: Physical disadvantage (e.g. climate),

Strict immigration policies, intensive

agricultural/manufacturing with small

indigenous people

Problems: Small market size, small size of

labour force, country relies on foreign labour

force


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POPULATION CHANGE

The global rate of population growth sharply increasedduring three periods.

8000 BC during which the world population increasedrapidly as a result ofrevolution in agriculture.

1750 A.D. This was a result ofindustrial revolution.

The third rapid change in world population began in1950: This has been brought about by advances inmedical science, which has helped to eliminatetraditional causes of death in poorer countries.


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Characteristics of population

Thesex ratio is the number of males per 100females.

Age structure: Three main age cohorts (agegroups) are identified:

Below 15

15 -64

Above 64

The economically active and productive group isthe second. Those below 15 and above 64constitute the dependent group.


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Dependency Ratio

The youthful structure of population of developingcountries means high dependency ratio.

Dependency ratio is the measure of the number ofdependence that is being supported by hundredpeople in the economically active group. There isroughly one dependent for every active adultcompared to 2 adults per dependant in the developedcountries.

High dependency ratio puts a lot of pressure on theresources of government and individual households.


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Population Growth

Population growth is influenced by three main factors. These are birthrate, death rate and difference between emigration and immigration.

Natural population growth

Fertility refers to births. Crude birth rate refers to the number of livebirths a year for every one thousand (1000) people alive in a society.

Fertility rate of a country is strongly influenced by the: Age and sexstructure of its population, the customs and believes of the people andfamily size expectations, Population policies of the country.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): This is the average number of children a womanwill have throughout her child-bearing years (15-49). In other words, TFRdescribe the average number of children to a child bearing woman.

Mortality refersto deaths. Crude death raterefers to the number ofdeaths per one thousand people living in a society.


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The vicious cycle of

Rapid Population Growth

High dependencyburden

Low savings &Investment

Low economic

growth/developmentLow standard

of living

High populationGrowth Rate

CONSEQUENCES OFHIGH POPULATION GROWTH RATE


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Population

characteristics

Developed

countries

Developing

countries

Density High Low

Growth Rate Low, usually less

than 1% per annum.

High, around 2.5%

per annum.

Dependency

Burden

Low High (More than

40% of population

are children).

Birth Rate Low (TFR is usually

less than 2).

Very High. It can be

as high as 7.0, as in

UgandaDeath Rate Death rate is very

low. High life

expectancies

Declining but

relatively high. Low

life expectancies

Comparing populations of developed countriesand developing countries


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Reasons for low birth rate in developed countries

People marry late. Women are highly educated and theydelay in having a family so that they can have a career.

High living standards mean that it is expensive to cater formore children (Becker, 1988).

High economic power/position of women means they do nothave time to cater for children.

Western culture does not encourage many children ( nuclearfamily, no rewards for people with many children, no familypressure on those who decides not to have children)

Couples prefer material possessions such as cars, houses etcto many children

Contraceptives are readily available for birth control


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Reasons for high birth rate in

developing countries Attitudes towards children and pressure from friends

and extended family.

Lack of modern contraceptives and limited familyplanning. For instance, only 17% of married women in

Ghana are using modern contraceptives (GhanaDemographic and Health Survey Report, 2008).

Low economic status of women

Early marriages. Girls are under pressure to marryearly to extend their child bearing years

No old age pensions and care homes, so childrenprovide security for old age

Large families are seen as sign of prosperity


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Demographic Transition

Postulated by Notestein in 1945

The model proposes that fertility declines inresponse to mortality as societies undergo

structural changes and move from traditionalto modern stage in a linear manner.

The shape of the graph is consistent but the

divisions in time vary slightly. Some modelshave only three stages, others have fourstages. Others still have five stages.


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Stage I

This is known as high stationary stage.

High birth and death rates.

The high birth rate is due to the fact that parents

cannot predict the survival of children; Nofamily planning or birth control; Children areneeded for farming activities.

The high death rate is largely due to poormedical knowledge.

As both the birth and death rates are high, therate of natural increase of the population of acountry in this stage is stable or very low.


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Stage 1

Occasional epidemics and famine woulddramatically increase the crude death rate for afew years (represented by the "waves" in Stage Iof the model.

The population is young and characterized bylow life expectancy.

Subsistence agriculture. It is said that most ofhuman history was spent in this stage, but today

there is no major country at this stage. Only afew remote indigenous groups can be said to beat this stage


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Stage II

In stage II (known as early expanding stage), thecrude death rate declines rapidly as a result ofimprovement in medical science and sanitation.

However, the birth rate remains as high as it wasduring stage 1.

Consequently, natural rate of increase is veryhigh.

Agriculture is the backbone of countries in thisstage. Industrialization may just have started.

Many less developing countries, includingGhana, Egypt


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Stage III

This is known as late expanding stage.

A rapid drop in birth rate, as a result of rapideducation, availability of modern contraceptives, anddecreased economic value of children due to

increasing urbanization and use of technology. The death rates continue to fall due to continued

medical and nutritional developments.

Consequently, the population continues to grow at adeclining rate because the crude birth rate is stillhigher than the crude death rate. Most newlyindustrialized countries are in this stage. This include:China, Argentina, India, Brazil.


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Stage IV

This is referred to as the low stationary stage. Crude birth rate roughly equals the crude death rate,

and natural increase rate approaches zero.

The low birth rate is caused by family planning, good

health, late marriages and improving status of women. Population growth is small or stable.

High proportion of the population is ageing.

High living standards and long life expectancy.

Most countries in Western Europe are in this stage. EgsSweden, United Kingdom and the United States are inthis stage.


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Stage V

At this stage, both the birth and death rates areso low.

The population may be experiencing declininggrowth rates in cases where the total fertilityrate is too low.

It is believed that Germany is within or

approaching this stage. It is immigration that ispreventing some countries, such as Norway andFinland, from moving into this stage.


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Criticisms of the Model

The model has been criticised as being too Eurocentric.Developing countries in Asia and Africa may not followthe same patterns.

It fails to specify the level of modernisation or economicgrowth that will help bring about fertility decline (Szreter1993).

The connection between economic growth and fertilitydecline is not universal as countries like China and Sri-Lanka experienced fertility decline with little economicgrowth (Schneider and Schneider 1994)

Caldwell et al. 1992) explained that fertility decline inChina occurred when the population was considerablyrural and poor.


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D.T.

The model also does not provide "guidelines" as tohow long it takes a country to get from Stage I to iv.Western European countries took centuries, yet somerapidly developing countries like Malaysia and Koreaare transforming in mere decades.

Changing familial roles and traditional values, beliefsand norms could also affect fertility levels, yet thesewere not formally incorporated into the model (Zafaret al.. 1995; Teye, 2005).

Government planning for population change mayinterrupt the model. For instance, One child policy inChina. Yet this has not been discussed in the model.


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POPULATION MOVEMENT/

MIGRATION

Migration is movement that involves a change ofresidence (Carr, 1990).

Migration can be classified based distance,

causation, and time scale. Distance

Internal within the same country

ExternalAcross national borders

Inter-regional

International


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Causation

Forced (e.g. refuges)

Economically motivated

Time scale

Seasonal migration

Temporary Asylum seekers

Permanent


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According to Carr (1990), permanent migration can beclassified into three groups:

Cause of the Move -(whether voluntary or involuntary)

The distance over which migration occurred

International migrations where national frontiers arecrossed as against internal migrations

By the type of area from and to which migration occurs (rural to urban or urban to rural or internal)

There are two forms, namely: Emigration (I.e. migrationfrom a location) and immigration (migration to a location).The difference between the two is net migration.


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MAIN CAUSES OF POPULATION

MOVEMENT (MIGRATION)

Economic: Searching for job opportunities andexploitation of natural resources ( e.g. gold,diamond etc).

Social: Movement for better education,better medical services to join families etc .

Political: To avoid political or religiouspersecution. Movement during wars etc

Environmental: Drought, famine, epidemics,volcanic eruptions, earthquakes.


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INTERNAL MIGRATION

Rural to Urban Migration

Rural to Rural

Urban to Rural

Urban to urban


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Causes of internal migration

This can be divided into push and pull factors.

Push factors for Ruralurban migration:

Land shortages

Unemployment Poverty and crop failure

Lack of social amenities

Lack of educational opportunities

Customs in rural areas- people want to breakaway from these


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Effects of Migration

Benefits to source (area of origin) Remittances: Migrants may send money back

home. This may help raise living standards oftheir origins. Remittances may also include

clothes, food etc. Acquisition of new skills by migrants.

Reduction in population pressure on agriculturallands

Decline in the rate of unemployment

Reduction in pressure on social amenities


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Disadvantages to the source region

Shortage of labour

Weak local army

Reduction in size of market

Food shortage, especially if youth moves

leaving aged and women


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Benefits/ Disadvantages to Destination

Benefits to receiving areas (destination) Cheap labour

Large market size

Increased productivity

Increased revenue

Disadvantages to the receiving region

Pressure on housing and health services

Congestion and development of slums

Environmental degradation

Increase in the number of crimes and social vices


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INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

This is defined as movement acrossinternational boundaries. In most cases, it isfrom poor to rich countries.

Factors: Economic Search of jobs. This is the most

important factor ( guest workers and illegalmigrants)

Education

Political conflicts


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Measures of Controlling International

Migration

Tight immigration laws

Guest worker programmes to ensure that

those who move will benefit countries

US Lottery


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Sample questions for discussion

Write a critique of the Demographic Transitionmodel ( Assignment, due 30th March)

Describe the causes and problems associated

with high population growth rate in anydeveloping country of your choice (Tutorialdiscussions)

Outline the main causes of rural-urban migration

in any developing country and discuss its effectson both the source region and the destination(Tutorial discussions).

Lecture 6 GEOG 102, Population

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