GEOG 102 – Population, Resources, and the Environment

Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Topic 9 – Environmental Sustainability

A – The Concept of SustainabilityB – Towards a Sustainable World?

The Concept of Sustainability

■ 1. Sustainable Development■ 2. Sustainable Society■ 3. General Indicators

AA

Sustainable Development

■ The issue• Brought forward in view of challenges at a scale never seen

before.• Demographic challenge:

• Strong population growth, notably in the developing world.• Resource challenge:

• An increasing usage of resources, renewable and non renewable alike.– Raw materials.– Energy.– Food.

• Environmental challenge:• Higher levels of environmental impacts of human activities.

• The capacity of this world to sustain its population is compromised.

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Sustainable Development

■ “Sustainable”• The process or the activity can be

maintained without exhaustion or collapse.

• Intra and Inter-generational issue.• Capacity of a system to accommodate

changes:• Rates of use of renewable resources

should not exceed their rates or regeneration.

• Rates of use of non-renewable resources should not exceed at which renewable substitutes are developed.

• Rates of pollution emissions should not exceed the assimilative capacity of the environment.

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Your generation

The 340 generations of humanity

Generations tocome

Sustainable Development

■ “Development”• Development is about people, not necessarily the economy.• Development is a process.• Improvement of the welfare of the population:

• Create an enabling environment for people.• Often forgotten in the immediate concern with the accumulation of

commodities and wealth.• Finding ways to satisfy and improve human needs.

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Sustainable Development

■ Conditions:• Appropriate social, political, legal

and economic conditions.■ Outcomes

• Improvement of the physical and human capital.

• Human capital:• Improved health or knowledge.• Improved opportunities for people

to use their acquired capabilities.• Improved work or leisure

conditions.• Physical capital:

• Improved private infrastructures.• Improved collective

infrastructures.

Development

-Health-Education-Quality of life

-Rights-Equity-Rule of law

Conditions

-Employment-Surplus

Human Capital Physical capital

Outcomes

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Sustainable Society

Sustainable Development

Social EquityEconomic Efficiency

Environmental

Responsibility

•Living conditions•Equal opportunity•Social cohesion•International solidarity•Maintenance of human capital.

•Economic growth•Efficiency and competitiveness•Flexibility and stability•Production / consumption•Employment•International trade

•Consumption of resources•Materials and wastes•Risks•Rate of change•Natural and cultural landscape

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Sustainable Society

■ Three “E”s• Economics.• Ecology / Environment.• Equity (social).

■ Population• Lessen population growth and stabilize it (preferably).• Stop subsidizing reproduction.• Access to contraception and family planning (freedom of choice).• Basic material needs satisfied (social obligation?).• Political and gender equity.• Access to information and education.

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Sustainable Society

■ Ecology• Restore the biological base (soils, forests, atmosphere and

hydrosphere).• Agriculture supporting ecosystems (diversity and organic

recycling).■ Energy

• Minimize and abolish fossil fuels (market forces are likely to do so).

• Shift to natural gas as an interim measure.• Move to renewable energy sources (hydrogen, solar, wind,

geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric).

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Sustainable Society

■ Economy• Promotion of efficiency and recycling.• Source materials mainly recycled materials.• Reduce wastes in production, packaging and distribution.• Economy like an ecosystem.• Dematerialization of the economy.

■ Spatial forms• Rational use of space (market forces).• Dense and compact cities.• Multifamily dwellings.• Alternative transportation modes:

• Leaning on mass transit, cycling and walking.

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Energy and Density2280

40

20

60

20 60 30040 80 100

Los Angeles

Sydney

LondonSingapore

United States

Australia and Canada

EuropeAsia

Hong Kong

Chicago

Houston

PhoenixDetroitDenver

AdelaideMelbourne

Toronto

New York

Vienna

ParisBerlin

Tokyo

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

per c

apita

(1,0

00 m

illio

ns o

f jou

les)

Population density (people per hectare)

Sustainable Society

■ Social forms• Material sufficiency and frugality:

• Replacing consumerism and materialism (unlikely).• Living according to one’s means.

• Self-worth and social status:• Not measured primarily by possession (unlikely).

• Balance between individual rights and obligations:• End of social welfare and the irresponsibility it creates?

■ Governance• Less government and more individual initiative.• Global governance (common policies for common causes).• Regional autonomy (regional issues and cultural / political

differences).• Avoid socialism and fascism (especially “world improvers”).

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Global Sustainability

Economic Development

•Sustain economic growth•Maximize profit•Expand markets•Externalize costs

Ecol

ogical

Dev

elop

men

t

•Respect carrying capacity•Conserve and recycleresources•Reduce waste

Social Developm

ent•Satisfy needs•Increase self-reliance

Socialism Conservationism

Ecologism

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Global Sustainability

Quality of Life

Sustainable level

FiveBillion

Consumes 20%

Resource / Energyconsumption

Carrying capacity

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OneBillion

Consumes 80%

Unsustainable level

General Indicators

Global Sustainability

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Water, materials and waste Energy and air quality

Livability

TransportationLand, green spaces

and biodiversity

General Indicators: What the Market Can Do

Energy and air quality

New sources of energy. Less energy intensity. Lower emission levels.

Water, materials and waste

Less water intensity. Lower material intensity (packaging) Recycling system. Efficient waste disposal.

Land, green spaces and biodiversity

Increased agricultural productivity. Manage

Livability Improved health. Higher education. Global access to information and entertainment (Internet).

Transportation Provide collective (transit) and private mobility.

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Towards a Sustainable World?

■ 1. Conventional Worlds■ 2. Barbarization■ 3. Great Transitions

BB

The Futures of Humanity11

ReferenceBalanced growth

Fortress World

New Sustainability Paradigm

Eco-communalism

2000

4 6 8 10 12

50

100

150

200

250

Gross World Product(trillion $US)

Breakdown

World population (in billions)

Transformed Worlds

Conventional Worlds

Barbarization

Conventional Worlds

■ Conventional Development scenario• Situation left as it is.• Solution led to market mechanisms.• Little or no collective efforts.• Limited success of birth control

policies.• Generation of wealth, but unfair

distribution.■ Consequences

• Growth of inequalities and environmental degradation.

• Potential instability and environmental collapse.

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Conventional Worlds

■ Balanced Growth• Legislation and policy intervention:

• Strengthen management systems.• Ensure widespread use of better

technology.• Provide greater social equity and

environment protection.• Same patterns of production and

consumption.• Notions of global governance.

■ Consequences• Less demographic growth and

environmental damage.• May not be enough to curb major global

environmental issues.• Socialism.

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Barbarization

■ Breakdown• Neo-Malthusian perspective.• Case of destructive anarchy.• Governmental and social failures.• “Mad Max” scenario.

■ Consequences• Environmental and social deterioration:

• Scarcity, violence, and massive migration.

• Unchecked population growth.• Economic collapse:

• Drastic fall in global population levels.• Loss of institutions, productive

capacity, and technology.

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2030 Breakdown Scenario

1900 2000 2100

Pollution

Industrial outputPopulation

Life expectancy

Natural resources

Oil production

2030

Food

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Breakdown

Barbarization

■ Fortress World• Authoritarian “solution”.• Conflicts between the rich and the poor:

• A minority of the elite in privileged enclaves.

• Protect their way of life by forcibly imposing limits and social controls on the impoverished majority.

• Seizing control of critical natural resources for exclusive use.

• Restricting access to information and technology.

■ Consequences• Unchecked demographic growth.• Social stratification.• Instability of a “Fortress” system may push

the world into a “Breakdown” situation.

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33 Great Transitions

■ Eco-communalism• Deep green utopian vision.• Strong collective efforts towards

small-scale.• Emphasis:

• Bio-regionalism.• Localism and face-to-face

democracy.• Small technology and economic

autarky.■ Consequences

• Population and economic scales diminish.

• Environmental conditions improve dramatically.

• Socialism/communism?

Great Transitions

■ New Sustainability Paradigm• Change the industrial civilization.• Achieving sustainability at the global

level:• Every activity most demonstrate

sustainability.• More equitable global civilization rather

than to retreat into localism.■ Consequences

• Dramatic decrease of per capita material flows:

• Through behavioral changes and technology improvements.

• High-quality environment.• Well-distributed welfare with economic

activities oriented towards services.

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Conclusion

■ Which Future?• In light of the current situation around the world, which scenario

is the most likely?• What are the alternatives?

■ Population, resources and the environment• The absolute bottom line.• Will shape the fate of humanity in the 21st century.• Period of strong demographic growth (demographic transition).• Population policy and family planning.• Migration and urbanization.• Consumption of resources (commodities and energy).• The environmental challenge.