Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter...
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Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimates
Transcript of Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter...
![Page 1: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimates
![Page 2: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
how to calculate Bayesian probabilities:
![Page 3: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
how to calculate Bayesian probabilities:
![Page 4: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
how to calculate Bayesian probabilities:
![Page 5: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 6: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 7: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 8: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 9: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 10: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 11: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 12: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
%%syms nn nb xnum = x^nb*(1-x)^(nn-nb);denom = gamma(nn-nb+1)*gamma(nb+1)/gamma(nn+2);p = num/denom;p=x^nb*(1-x)^(nn-nb)/gamma(nn- nb+1)/gamma(nb+1)*gamma(nn+2);figure(30)ezplot(subs(p,[nn,nb],[35,15]),[0,1]);
%%
Matlab code:
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 13: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Bayesian parameter estimates:
![Page 14: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Bernoulli distribution:
![Page 15: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Bernoulli distribution:
![Page 16: Lecture 3: Bayesian parameter estimatescourses.physics.ucsd.edu/2016/Fall/physics139/Lectures/... · 2016-10-03 · Bayes says posterior oc evidence x prior . Our next topic is Bayesian](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed42abc67ea026fc4336a34/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)