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Lean Kanban!Portfolio Management

Milano, 05 Giugno 2015

PMO and Portfolio: Synergies to face a changing future

Gaetano Mazzanti

agile42

E=P 3MO

Osservatorio P3MO

sounds familiar?

�too many things to do, multitasking��

�slipping schedule�

�continuous resource reallocation�

�too slow to react�

demand

capacity

traditional portfolio traits

Governance

Compliance

Control

PMO

where is the PMO?

source Tom Fishburne

traditional portfolio tenets

Top-down

Centralized Annual Budget

Detailed Planning

Fixed date, fixed cost, fixed scope !

(fixed fate !)

Cumbersome electronic tools

starting vs finishing

people as “resources”

full capacity allocation

PUSH!

how is success measured

“vuoi che muoro?”Oops!

On time, On Budget & Conformant to Specs

we love tools!

the infamous matrix organization

“resource” pool

Project A Project BProject C

rebooting teams

project “completed”: !reboot the team and… !

start again ! ouch!

putting together different people each time and expecting to have predictable outcomes

Tuckman model of team development

project pool anyone?

Project A Project BProject C

team 1 team 2 team 3

Project D

focus on local efficiency vsfast end-to-end delivery of value

blindness to queues

___

process efficiency?

process efficiency =total time

active time ________

205

= 25%

!1!!2!!3!!4!!5!!6!!7!!8!!9!10!11!12!13!14!15!16!17!18!19!20!

elaborate do validate deliver

waitingactive

mmm…

inspired by Joakim Sunden

changing the focus

from efficiency and cost

to flow and value

What is Lean Kanban?

a management method for

directly improving service delivery

catalyzing improvements

evolving a business to be fit for purpose

principles of the!Kanban method

start with what you do now

agree to pursue incremental, evolutionary change

respect the current process, roles, responsibilities & titles

encourage acts of leadership at all levels in your organization – from individual contributor to senior management

Kanban!six core practices

visualize !limit WIP!manage flow !make process policies explicit!implement feedback loops!improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally

if you can’t see it!you can’t manage it

a Kanban board

visualize to understand the process

how the process works and fails to work for you and your customers

how it can be changed

Babbel portfolio

Siemens MC Portfolio

expose dysfunctions

Limit WIP

balancing!demand & capacity

demand

capacity

no matter how good you are at filtering!capacity is always full (and more)

100% utilization myth

idle work

vs

idle workers

efficiency (doing things right, always busy)

vs

effectiveness (doing the right things, fast)

multitasking?no, thanks

it’s easier to startthan it is to finish

let work flowlet work flow

visualize flow

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

B C

D

F E

A

visualize flow

B

C

D

F E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

highlight issues

B

C

D

F E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

!

!

slack (%)absorb variations

% capacity utilization

queu

e si

ze

queue size grows exponentially at high capacity

0"

5"

10"

15"

20"

25"

0" 10" 20" 30" 40" 50" 60" 70" 80" 90" 100"

Kanban board design

Ideasoo

Biz Case TechAssessment

15-30 5-12Committed

5In Progress

5Verification

5

RejectedCommitment

Point

Busines

s

R&D

source David J Anderson

Kanban board designs

source Pawel Brodzinski

demand analysis

where does work come from?how is value assigned (and verified) to initiatives?

is arrival rate predictable? (usually not)

Ideasoo

Biz Case TechAssessment

15-30 5-12Committed

5In Progress

5Verification

5

RejectedCommitment

Point

Busines

s

R&D

work item types

standardfixed date

urgent/emergencyintangible

…

smallmedium

large…

growthmaintenance

innovation…

different types of projects

D

H

J I

F B

A E C

6

M L K 2

1

1

O

Q

N

P

EXPEDITE LANE

G

ideas elaborate do done validate

growth

innovation

protect

expedite

WIP limits

source David J Anderson

conversations/decisions about what to…

work on now

postpone

drop

limiting WIP

fewer commitments

more options

finishing stuff-> stop starting start finishing

limit WIP by!team capacity / space available

mar apr may jun jul aug sep

TeamA

TeamB

TeamC

TeamD

TeamE

the magic of visualizing

waiting for approval initial design,

planning, outsourcing, mold design, etc.

demandcapacity

one week later

we must be able to!

react to unfolding events and!

adapt to changing circumstances

David J Anderson

but… we hate uncertainty

we prefer to take a decision now

even if it risks being wrong

i.e. annual budget (we remove options, we

increase risks)

selection vs prioritization

what to do next?

what to finish next?

last responsible moment selection

Discoverwhat to do

Do It Validate Outcome

Reject Commitment

keep your options open

pull

which parameters should you consider to select what to do next

Revenues, ROI, IRR, NPV, etc. ?

Do you know your Cost of Delay???

ROI Cost of Delay (1 month)

Project A 20% 30k

Project B 10% 100k

which one would you select next?

Cost of Delay

impact of time on value

how does the value of the things!

we are/will working on decays over time?

Cost of Delay

DurationCost of Delay

CoD / T

A 5 3 0.6B 2 2 1

If CoDA/ TA � CoDB / TBdo B first

Cost of Delay profiles

time

linear fixed date must do now

logarithmic intangible (large) fixed cost

Project Canvas

N = … % > …

what about!specs & estimations?

what if you have 50 candidate initiatives and only

15 can be done?

what’s the point (cost) of specifying and

estimating all 50?

precision is worthless

forecasting based on historical data

continuously check and adapt

before starting a project

we simply need a rough idea of size !and an understanding of (un)certainty

monitoring progress

90% complete

remaining 10% could take forever

is usually meaningless

90% of what?

monitoring progress

value delivered

vs

activity completion

burn-up chart

time

output

“Ah, but this is only good for Software”

mmm…

mmm…

mmm…

mmm…

Lean Kanban Portfolio traitsValue driven

WIP limited

Decentralized, Adaptive

Empirical, Probabilistic (statistical data support)

Lightweight business case/specs

Lightweight estimation

Physical Boards

Traditional Portolio ManagementCentralized Annual BudgetDetailed PlanningFixed date, fixed cost, fixed scope!(fixed fate !)Compliance driven, top-down approachCumbersome electronic tools

Portfolio Kanban!

is more about !

changing/transforming the organization!

than about !

stickies on a board

Mike Burrows

Gaetano Mazzanti

@mgaewsj

gaetano.mazzanti@agile42.com

agile42