1. The Futures of Low-Carbon Society: An Asia Pacific VisionBeyond 205013 September 2011 Green ICT toward Low-Carbon society Bangkok, ThailandDr. Nares Damrongchai, APEC Center for Technology Foresight1

2. Confidence is what you havebefore you understand theproblem--- Woody AllenNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 3. What did people presume 50 years ago?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 4. What did people presume 50 years ago?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 5. What do we presume today?Nares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society 6. What do we presume today?Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 7. What should we be presumingabout 50 years time?Nares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society 8. What should we be presumingabout 50 years time?Nares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society 9. Living and working in perpetual motionAlwayson culture with lots of traffic, but low-emission is the norm andNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society sustainable energy forms are widely adopted. 10. Living and working in an urban colonyBuilding-integrated energy generation systems are a standard feature of all newbuildings, with photovoltaic skins a standard feature.Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 11. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 12. Living and working with good intentionsConsumptionNares Damrongchai of energy isofclosely monitored, ultra-energy-efficient vehicles are Futures Low Carbon Society connected into an integrated traffic management system. 13. Santa Monica Civic Center parking structureNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 14. Urban Farm: Eco Office in TokyoFutures of Low Carbon Society14 15. Futures of Low Carbon Society 16. Low Carbon is the only way to the futureNares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society 17. APEC Center for Technology Foresight Established in 1998 under Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Now part of STI, ThailandNares Damrongchai @APEC 17Center for Technology Foresight 18. APEC Member EconomiesAPEC Official Observers Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) SecretariatNares Damrongchai @APEC 18 Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC)Center forForum (PIF) Foresight Pacific Islands Technology 2008 APEC Secretariat 19. Mission of APEC CTF RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies 7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year) Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies Towards Best Practice in Technology ForesightNares Damrongchai @APEC 19Center for Technology Foresight 20. Our Customers Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT Telecom Pubic Company Limited, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Department of Agriculture, Institute of Solar Energy Technology Development, Petroleum Institute of Thailand, TRIDI, KNIT, Kasetsart University, Parliamentary Office, TPA, SIRIM, NISTPASS, and many others.Nares Damrongchai @APEC 20Center for Technology Foresight 21. The Foundations of Foresight Futures Studies Foresight Strategic Policy Planning DevelopmentNares Damrongchai, APEC Centerfor Technology Foresight 2008 22. The generic foresight process framework inputsStrategic intelligence scanning, Delphi analysis Emerging issues/trends analysisForesight interpretation Systems thinking, Causal Layered Analysisprospection Scenarios, visioning, backcasts, roadmaps outputs Reports, presentations, workshops, multimedia Strategy development & strategic planning: strategy individual, workgroup, organisation, society, etc.Source: Voros (2003)Nares Damrongchai @APEC 22Center for Technology Foresight 23. Scenario A ExpectedToday PossibleandPlausiblefuturesearlyweaksignals of PreferredchangeScenario B TimeSource: Bezold and23Hancock 1993, Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 24. Whats the difference?Nares Damrongchai @APEC 24Center for Technology Foresight 25. The Johari WindowStrategic planningtrends KNOWN UNKNOWNenvironment KNOWNSKNOWNS scanningKNOWNUNKNOWNimaginationKnowledgeUNKNOWNSmanagementUNKNOWNSNares Damrongchai @APECForesightCenter for Technology Foresight 26. What is the Rationale? To link global science, technology, and policycommunities to government or local initiatives tocombat climate change issues. A new sense of purpose for global science,technology, and innovation due to environmentallimits. To envision and describe the future society where a low-carbon economy and adaptive lifestyle become theprinciple drivers governing trade and development.Futures of Low Carbon Society 27. Q: What could the divergent outcomedriven by climate change be like?A: Low carbon societies with multipledimensions.Q: But what will they look like in 2050?A: We dont know yet, but certainly not justabout reducing emission anymore. 28. Process Flow of Scenario Planning Trends UncertaintiesScenarios Logic Scenarios CommunicationIdentificationIdentification Design Writing StrategyNares Damrongchai @APECCenter for Technology Foresight 29. Nares Damrongchai @APEC 29 Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)Center for Technology Foresight 30. Climate change and its impactMigration, ruralTrade of goodslife, and naturaland servicesresourcesHousing,construction, Societyurban life,and health of Low Carbon SocietyNares DamrongchaiFuturestransportation 31. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 32. Delphi survey is simply...a way to gather opinionsStructuring Groupwisdom Communication DistillationMaking Informedknowledge Judgment informationForesightdata 33. Group Communication Group GainGroups can help to... spot errors of fact or logic resolve ambiguity Groups provide... broad base of information greater creativity 34. Group CommunicationGroup LossGroups can be... hierarchical conservativeIn a group, it can be difficult to...- disagree with the majority- express an extreme opinion- question someone with higher status 35. Delphis special features1. Anonymity2. (Re) iteration..3. ...With controlled feedback 36. x (Expert Panel) Expert AExpert B anonymity Foresight Committeeansweranswermoderatorfeedbackfeedback 37. Delphi ApplicationsWithin foresight studies, Delphi is usually used totap the wisdom of a group, in order to: predict when S&T developments will occur assess policy options encourage decisions consensusconformityconvergence 38. Example of prediction:When will the firsthydrogen-powered car hitthe market in yourcountry? (Practical Use) 39. Consensus through Delphi Planning of social services for the elderly - seeking opinionsof community- and hospital-based doctors aboutseriousness and prevalence of health problemsFrom Delphi Techniques and the Planning of SocialServices - The Prevention of Dependency Among the 40. Source: Manufacturing Visions (ManVis) A Pan-European Delphi study ( 41. Policy DelphiThe same 3 key features apply: anonymity / iteration / controlled feedback Example: Government should bear the burden of health care across the population by providing 100% financial support to ensure universal and equitable access to services. Desirability Feasibility Importance assessmentassessment assessmentvery desirable 1 definitely 1 very important 1 desirable 2possibly 2important2 undesirable 3 probably not 3 not very importantvery undesirable 4 definitely not 4 completely_3 _unimportant4 42. Delphi logistics - some challenges Selecting and Recruiting the panel Scale and Response rates: Japan 99 Korea 99 Austria 98 UK 95 1st round 86% 41% 46%31%2nd round82% 79% 71%41%responses3106144412241022 43. Real-Time DelphiRT Delphi uses the widespread availability of high-speedinternet and software technologiesAlready used in UN Millennium Project APEC Low-Carbon Society Project Universal Health Care Foresight Thailand Global Risks Analysis Project etc. 45 44. http://bit.ly/cz2PXzNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 45. Real-Time Delphi Survey Purpose: to verify the global strategic trends that drives the society up to 2050 and beyond. Feasibility Desirability Period: 15 June 30 August, 2009 Participated by international experts Anonymity Iterative (roundless) max. 4 rounds Controlled feedbackNares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society 47 46. Response rate and respondent profile 78 from 5 regions (Af, Am, As, Eu, Oc) invited 23-28 from 3 regions (28.2 - 35.9 %) answered Asia 21.8 - 26.9 % Thailand 7-9 out of 23-28 Gender (male 15-19, female 6-9)Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society48 47. Example of converged opinionsStatement 15 : Water scarcity becomes a cause of warMedian = 3; IQR = 1; SD = 1.274 Median = 5; IQR = 0; SD = 0.929Median = 1; IQR = 0.25; SD = 0.929Median = 4; IQR = 1.25; SD = 1.032 48. Example of divergent opinionsStatement 13 : Algae technology capable of producing fuel (H2,oil, or ethanol) becomes commercially wide-spread.Median = 2; IQR = 2; SD = 1.014Median = 4; IQR = 2; SD = 1.043 Median = 4;IQR = 2; SD = 1.100Median = 3; IQR = 2; SD = 1.087Nares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society 49. Level of agreements on feasibility anddesirabilityTop 10 ranking Bottom 10 ranking 50. The Top Ranking Trends Most existing commercial buildings are retrofitted to save 50% ofenergy use on average. Energy efficiency of home and office appliances increases by 50%. Shift of farming land to higher altitude and colder areas cause majordestruction of the most important carbon sink (forests). A low carbon related SR (Social Responsibility) ISO Standard isconsidered the norm of any business practice. Global and regional earth system modeling (integrated assessmentmodel) provides highly accurate information. Migration of people from coastal area towards inland induces majorconflicts over land and resources 20% of electricity is generated by decentralized sources. 51. Chronology of Future EventsGlobal and regional earthConsumers are willing to pay2030 system modeling Skilled immigrationapplicant increase and aremore for low carbon Economies that were previously dominated byEnergy efficiency of homeand office appliances (integrated assessment easily acceptedfootprint products manufacturing industries increases by 50%. model) provides highly/sectors have moved accurate Ecotourism becomes Technologies significantlyMajority of trips in daily lifeimprove the healthcare dramatically towards dominant in the tourismwill be through efficient system to cope with newknowledge-based services Food scarcity occurs as a industry public transportation as result of a significant shift ininfectious diseasesA low carbon related SR,ISOopposed to personal modeCoastal ecosystemstimulated from globalland allocation from food Standard is considered themanagement becomeswarming 20% of electricity is crop to energy crop norm of business practice widespread andgenerated by decentralized Effective mechanisms are economically beneficialTechnological processCarbon accounting becomes sources devised to cope with thechanges toward producing mandatory globallydirect impact of climate New generations of well- food locally to serveeducated people choose Environmentally friendly related eventssocietal demand while new knowledge-intensive, goods is now the dominant reducing carbon emissionagriculture-based industriesconsumer goods in the that are more sustainableglobal market Algae technology capable of Water scarcity becomes aGlobal IT network will producing fuel (H2, oil, orcause of Warreduce the traveling of Air freight shipments areethanol) becomes people to the 1990 leveldown to 1990 levelcommercially wide-spread High demand on carbon2040 Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is effectively and fully deduction createsA global regulatoryframework of low carbon is Political instability andinter-regional conflicts dueMost existing commercialbuildings are retrofitted to implemented sustainable income from totally acceptedto climate change impactssave 50% of energy use onthe poor rural people wholead to little interactionaverageTechnology andplant trees and energy between the major management enable forestcrops Personal transportation, Shift of farming land to economic co-operationsplantations to act as thesupplementing massMigration of people fromhigher altitude and colder main carbon sinkIt is realized that emission transportation, will mainly coastal area towards inlandareas cause majortrading has had little effectconsist of shared, loaned orinduces major conflicts over destruction of the moston reducing the globalrents vehicles land and resources important carbon sink green house gas emission2050 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are stabilizedBreakthroughs in batterystorage technology makeat 1990 levelobsolete all other fuelsincluding H2Beyond 2050 Conventional fuels disappear completely fromtransportation sector 52. Scenario workshop 2-4 November 2009, Phuket, Thailand Brought together some 50 creative minds with diverse expertise, roles, ages, genders, and nationalities from across the Asia-Pacific to sketch out desirable low-carbon futures for the region and some paths for how to get there. Low carbon high quality lifestyles, is it possible?Nares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society56 53. Section 1: Climate Change & Its Impact Climate change would have adverse impact but had some doubts about the technologies like carbon capture and storage and earth system modeling as well as the effectiveness of international agreements. Section 2: Migration, Rural Life, and Natural Resources Rising sea level will force farmers to shift to higher altitude despite coastal ecosystem management. Impacts of ecotourism and skilled immigration are only moderate. Water scarcity of course is a major concern. There are conflicting views whether well-educated people will go farming and whether rural poor can gain benefits planting trees and energy crops. Section 3: Society / Health Experts were optimistic that technologies can improve healthcare system. The low carbon concept is spreading and some consumers are willing to pay more for green product. Section 4: Trade of Goods and Services Participated experts generally are positive regarding movements towards green trade and services despite some doubts about the effectiveness of implementation. Section 5: Housing and Construction / Urban Life / Transportation Experts have good faith in technologies to boost energy efficiency, public transportation, and renewable energy though conventional fuel will not disappear so quickly.Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society57 54. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 55. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 56. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 57. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 58. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 59. Some lessons learned from scenarios Low Carbon society could be reachable within our lifetime (at least for some of us). Community networking is the key. Community- driven initiatives drive the changes the world requires in pursuit of the low-carbon development path. Emergence of computerized farming and other technological advances. Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it replaces USD as the global currency.Nares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society63 60. http://www.lcs2050.com/Nares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society 64 61. Devise a roadmap with clear objectives on the stepsAPEC should take to transition to low-carbon societiesMandate and support incorporation ofinternational climate mitigation andadaptation strategies into nationaldevelopment plans.APEC Energy Working Group hasproposed Low-Carbon Paths toEnergy Security and develop atechnology roadmap. 62. Establish internationalcertification on green industries Support investmentstrategies that encouragecompliance. Set regional prioritiessuch as Combating airborne pollution Trading in low-carbon products Enhancing public awareness Strengthening law enforcement Promote environmentally sustainable practices. 63. Advance public education toward low-carbon societies Support regional knowledgesharing and exchanges throughcommunications andnetworking among APECmembers. Promote green values bysupporting APEC-wide mediacampaigns that recruitparticipation from private sectoractors. 64. Establish APEC group for climate change The group should enhance north- south and south- south collaboration and negotiation among international parties. Political will must be mobilized. 65. Participating member economies1.Hong Kong, China2.Malaysia3.Korea4.Indonesia5.Philippines6.New Zealand7.Canada8.Japan9.Australia10. Vietnam11. Chinese Taipei12. Singapore Macao, China13. China United Kingdom14. Russia Germany15. Thailand16. United States 66. Source: World BusinessForum for SustainableDevelopment Futures of Low Carbon Society 70 67. Global average energy budget of the Earths atmosphereNares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon SocietyAdapted from Kiehl & Trenberth (1997) 68. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniquesNares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society Source: Royal Society 2009 69. Solar Radiation Management (SRM) techniquesNares DamrongchaiFutures of Low Carbon Society Source: Royal Society 2009 70. Preliminary overall evaluation of the geoengineering techniquesSource: Royal Society 2009Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society 71. What is a Smart Grid?A smart grid is an electricity network that uses digitaland other advanced technologies to monitor andmanage the transport of electricity from all generationsources to meet the varying electricity demand ofend-users.[Technology Roadmap: Smart Grids, 72. Technologies of Smart Grid/SmartCommunity(Energy supply/demand perspective)Supply Side Demand SideElectricityPower Community:GenerationDistribution Micro grid/CEMSNetwork andStorage Factory: FEMS Smart Meter Building: BEMS House: HEMS Transport: EV/PHEVICT Infrastructure for Smart Community