Latin america light vehicle outlook
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Transcript of Latin america light vehicle outlook
Latin America—Light Vehicle Outlook
Guido VildozoManager, Latin America Junio 17, 2011
Agenda
• Economia Global
• Perspectiva Regional
• Brazil
• Mexico
• Argentina
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
• Argentina
• Resumen
(Percent change)
La Recuperacion Global Desacelera
0
5
10
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10
-5
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Real GDP Industrial Production
2
4
6
8
10
(Real GDP, percent change)
Los Mercados Emergentes Lideran la Expansion Global
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-4
-2
0
2
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
World Advanced Countries Emerging Markets
4
5
6
(IHS Global Insight indexes, 2002:1=1)
Precios de Materiales Industriales
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
All Materials Chemicals Nonferrous Metals
Consumo Chino de Commodities (Percent of total world consumption)
CementIron Ore
CoalPigs
SteelLeadZinc
AluminumCopper
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Source: Barclays Capital (2010), Credit Suisse (2010), Goldman Sachs, US Geological Survey (2009), BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2009), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (2008), IMF (2010)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
CopperEggs
NickelRice
SoybeansWheat
ChickensPPP
OilCattleGDP
0%
5%
10%
15%
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Global Change
Sale
s in
Mill
ions
Year-O
ver-Y
ear C
hange
Ventas Globales
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-10%
-5%
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 Apr2011
Apr 2011 YTD
2011 2012 2013 2014
Sale
s in
Mill
ions
Year C
hange
• Las ventas globales en los primeros 4 meses del ano crecieron 5.4% sobre el 2010. Vemos ya unadesaceleracion apartir del mes de Marzo con 2.6% de crecimiento annual y 1.8% para el mes de Abril.
• Anticipamos 76 millones para este ano, un 5.5% de crecimiento comparado al 2010. Esto despues dereducir 600,000 unidades reflejando el impacto de Japon.
70
74
78
72.2Million
1.2Million
1.72Million
652,000
-610,000
282,000 119,000 245,000
-118,000
76.1Million428,000
Sale
s in
Mill
ions
Ventas Globales 2011
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58
62
66
70
2009 2010 NorthAmerica
GreaterChina
SouthAsia
SouthAmerica
Japan/Korea
Middle East/Africa
Others Central/East
Europe
West Europe
2011
64Million
+5.5%
Sale
s in
Mill
ions
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 Global Change
Pro
duction in
Mill
ions
Year-O
ver-Y
ear C
hange
Produccion Global
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0
10
20
2008 2009 2010 Apr 2011
Apr 2011YTD
2Q 2011
2011 2012 2013 2014
Pro
duction in
Mill
ions
Year C
hange
• Los desastres naturales en Japon durante el mes de Marzo han impactado los volumenes de produccion delmes de Abril. Solo Japon registro una caida del 70% contra el 2010. El impacto seria mayor de no ser por elsolido performance de MERCOSUR y China.
Impacto en produccion Global en pronostico de Junio comparado a Marzoactualizado al 26 de Mayo, 2011 (000‘s)
1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 ForegoneVolume
Japan (488) (1,106) (463) 2 400 632 492 530
Korea 0 (11) 1 10 0 0 0 0
China (1) (339) 0 90 148 35 0 67
SE Asia (3) (277) (49) 129 201 0 0 0
NA (11) (456) (41) 82 225 163 0 37
Total—All OEMs
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NA (11) (456) (41) 82 225 163 0 37
Europe (16) (215) (36) 104 153 12 0 0
Other (1) (26) (22) 13 34 0 0 0
Total LV (518) (2,430) (610) 430 1,161 842 492 635
Negative volumes are lost productionPositive volumes are recovered productionForegone volume due to demand destruction and lost Japan OEM market share
Perspectiva Regional
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America Latina –PIB
Country/Five-year period
1991-
95
1996-
00
2001-
05
2006-
10
2011-
15
2016-
20
2021-
25
Argentina 6.0 2.6 2.0 6.6 4.4 4.0 3.8
Brazil 3.1 2.0 2.8 4.4 5.2 4.9 4.7
Chile 8.7 4.2 4.2 3.3 5.1 5.0 4.8
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Colombia 4.6 0.9 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.7 4.5
Costa Rica 5.5 4.9 4.1 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.4
Ecuador 3.4 0.4 5.2 3.3 1.9 3.1 2.5
Mexico 1.8 5.4 1.5 1.8 3.8 3.9 3.8
Peru 5.5 2.5 4.2 7.2 5.7 5.1 4.6
Uruguay 3.9 2.2 0.2 6.3 4.0 3.3 3.3
Venezuela 3.4 0.7 2.5 3.4 3.2 3.9 3.4
Latin America & Caribbean 3.4 3.0 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.2
America Latina –Poblacion
(Millions of persons)1991-
952006-
102011-
152021-
25
Argentina 33.9 39.9 41.8 45.3
Brazil 156.9 191.9 200.0 212.0
Chile 13.9 16.8 17.6 18.9
Colombia 35.2 45.0 48.2 53.9
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Colombia 35.2 45.0 48.2 53.9
Costa Rica 3.3 4.5 4.8 5.4
Ecuador 11.0 13.5 14.3 15.8
Mexico 87.2 108.5 113.6 121.9
Peru 23.1 28.8 30.5 33.9
Uruguay 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5
Venezuela 21.3 28.3 30.6 34.7
Latin America & Caribbean 465.0 575.7 606.4 659.7
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
Millo
nes
VEN
URY
PER
PAY
ECU
COL
Venta Regional por Pais-Volumen
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0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0COL
CHL
BRA
BOL
ARG
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
Millo
nes
VEN
URY
PER
ECU
COL
Produccion Regional por Pais-Volumen
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0 COL
CHL
BRA
ARG
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
Brazil
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3
4
5
6
7
-2
0
2
4
6
8Real GDP Growth (%) Consumer Price Inflation (%)
Sumario Economico Brazil
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3
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars
-60
-40
-20
0
20
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Exchange Rate per USD* Current Account Balance**
20
25
30(US $ ,000)
PIB/Capita
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0
5
10
15
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP per Capita
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0(LCU/US$)
Cambio Monetario
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0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
R$/US$
40,0
50,0
60,0(Percent)
SELIC – Tasas a Corto Plazo
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
SELIC
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0(Percent)
Tasa de Desempleo
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0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Unemployment Rate
90
100
110
250
300
350
Ventas – Promedio Mensual vs Indice de Empleo
Employment remains favourableEmployment remains favourable
Thousand Units
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60
70
80
50
100
150
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
LV Sales (left scale) Employment Index (right scale)
Ventas – Promedio Mensual vs Tasas de Financiamiento
20
25
30
35250
300
350 PercentThousand Units
Financing is a major driver, rates uncertainFinancing is a major driver, rates uncertain
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40
45
50
55
6050
100
150
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
LV Sales (left scale) APR Financing (right scale)
Impacto Historico de Empleo, Poblacion/Demografia y Tasas de Financiamiento en Brazil
.2
.314.0
14.4
14.8
15.2
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-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
13.2
13.6
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Residual Actual Fitted
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0Million Units
Futuro promisorio gracias a credito y precios mas bajos
Perspectivas del Mercado Brasilero
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0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Current Base Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%)
200,0
250,0
300,0
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00Million Units
Parque Automotor/Densidad
Units per ‘000
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0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
Volume - L Market Share - R
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Percentage
Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros
Big four continue to looseBig four continue to loose
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
OTHER CHERY NISSAN MITSUBISHI TOYOTA RENAULT HYUNDAI
HONDA PSA FORD GM VW GROUP FIAT GROUP
Big four continue to looseBig four continue to loose
3000
4000
5000
6000 US$ Millions
Inversion de la Industria Automotriz
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0
1000
2000
3000
Investment OEMs Investment Suppliers
4,50
5,50
6,50
7,50
• 5 MM para el 2015 • Cuatro plantas nuevas: Hyundai, Toyota, Chery, Fiat
• 5 MM para el 2015 • Cuatro plantas nuevas: Hyundai, Toyota, Chery, Fiat
Million Units
Produccion: Inversiones Para AtenderDemanda de los proximos Diez Anos
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0,50
1,50
2,50
3,50
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Light Vehicle Production Capacity OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
Perfil de Nuevos Productos (Regionales)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Fiat Strada 4 Uno, Bravo PalioSienna, Weekend,
StradaCity Car (Topolino) Uno, Punto, Linea
VW Saveiro, Fox Amarok Gol, Voyage, FoxUp, Saveiro, Parati/Polo SUV
Polo (Mex)
GM Agile Montana CruzeS-10; Blazer; Aveo,
GSV MPV, Spark
Spark Sedan Agile
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Spark
FordFiesta, Fiesta 299
(MEX)Ecosport, Fiesta
HBA 299Ranger; Focus
Courier DropKa
PSAHoggar, C3
Picasso; 408 308 C3, 208 208 PUP EM CAR
Renault Fluence Duster; Kangoo Micra from MEX? Sandero Logan
Toyota Etios Corolla Hilux, Hilux SW4
Honda City Civic Brio Fit, City
Brazil Scorecard
Positivo:
• Estabilidad Economica
• Inversion Directa Extranjera
• Empleo
• Financiamiento
• Rentabilidad/Lucratividad
Riesgos:• Capacidad Ociosa en plantas• Falta de Capacidad del Sector
Autopartista• Infraestructura Ineficiente• Cambio de Moneda (Exportaciones)• Precio de Vehiculos Nuevos
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• Rentabilidad/Lucratividad
• Hasta 84 Meses
• Reduccion de Tasas
• Cambio de Moneda (Importados)
• Apoyo Gubernamental a la Industria
• PIB per Capita
• Baja Densidad de Motorizacion
• Producto Nuevo
• Inversion de la Industria
• Riesgo de Credito Privado/PIB• Crecimiento Salarial vs Inflacion• Congestion Vehicular• Dependencia en commodities
Mexico
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Sumario Economico Mexico
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
-10
-5
0
5
10Real GDP Growth (%) Consumer Price Inflation (%)
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3.5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
10
11
12
13
14
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-10
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Exchange Rate per USD* Current Account Balance**
12
14
16
18
20(US $ ,000)
PIB/Capita
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP per Capita
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0(LCU/US$)
Cambio Monetario
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0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MP$/US$
40,0
50,0
60,0(Percent)
CETES – Tasas a Corto Plazo
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CETES
4,0
5,0
6,0(Percent)
Tasa de Desempleo
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0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Unemployment Rate
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
100,00
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
Ventas — Promedio Mensual vs. Fondos Para Creditos Durables
Credit is limiting momentumCredit is limiting momentum
Thousand Units Billion Pesos
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0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
700
750
800
850
900
950
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
LV Sales (left scale) Credit Durable Goods
100
110
120
1000
1100
1200
Ventas — Promedio Mensual vs. Indice de Confianza del Consumidor
Thousand Units Index
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70
80
90
700
800
900
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Confidence
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
10%
20%
30%
Perspectivas del Mercado Mexicano
Units
Used car imports and credit availability limit growth
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600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Light Veh -L Annual Change -R
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Millions
Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019OTHER SUZUKI MITSUBISHI DAIMLER AG RENAULT
MAZDA HONDA TOYOTA CHRYSLER LLC FORD
VW GROUP GM NISSAN
Perfil de Nuevos Productos
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GM Sonic, 9-4C2 Drop, Entry
CUVSilverado, Sierra,
GraniteCaptiva, SRX,
Anthem, 9-4
VW Jetta Beetle Beetle Cabrio Polo MQB Jetta MQB
Nissan Micra/TiidaSentra, Note,
NV200Frontier
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NV200
Ford Fiesta Fusion, MKZ B-CUV Fiesta
Chrysler 500 Freemont Ram Van B-CUV Journey
Toyota Tacoma Yaris
Honda CR-V
Hyundai Accent
Argentina
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0
5
10
15
0
2
4
6
8
10Real GDP Growth (%) Consumer Price Inflation (%)
Sumario Economico Argentina
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars
-5
0
5
10
15
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Exchange Rate per USD* Current Account Balance**
10
12
14
16
18(US $ ,000)
PIB/Capita
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 45
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP per Capita
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0(LCU/US$)
Cambio Monetario
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0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
AP$/US$
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0(Percent)
Inflacion
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-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CPI
10,0
15,0
20,0(US $ Billion)
Balanza Comercial
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-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Trade Balance
Ventas: Promedio Mensual vs Indice de Confianza del Consumidor
55
60
65
70
60
75
90PercentThousand Units
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30
35
40
45
50
0
15
30
45
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Sentiment (right scale)
Consumer sentiment is recovering… so are sales Consumer sentiment is recovering… so are sales
Ventas: Promedio Mensual vsExportaciones
5
6
7
8
60
75
90Billion US $Thousand Units
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1
2
3
4
5
0
15
30
45
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
LV Sales (left scale) Exports (Right)
Exports impact economic momentum immediately Exports impact economic momentum immediately
Mejores Inidicadores son CrecimientoEconomico, Poblacion/Demografia y BalanzaComercial
.4
.6
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 51
-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
11.0
11.5
12.0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Residual Actual Fitted
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6Million Units
Escenario positivo basado en exportaciones y credito
Perspectivas del Mercado Argentino
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0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Current Base Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%)
250,0
300,0
350,0
400,0
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
18,00Million Units
Parque Automotor/Densidad
Units per ‘000
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
Volume - L Market Share - R
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros
Percentage
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
OTHER DAIMLER AG CHERY HYUNDAI NISSAN HONDA TOYOTA
FORD RENAULT FIAT GROUP GM PSA VW GROUP
Asians evolveAsians evolve
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Comportamiento de Segmentos para CarrosPasajeros
Percentage
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
N/K MPV-C MPV-B F1 E2 E1 D2 D1 C2 C1 B A
No news is good newsNo news is good news
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Comportamiento de Segmentos paraComerciales Ligeros
SUV-C is a segment busterSUV-C is a segment buster
Percentage
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
SUV-E SUV-D SUV-C SUV-B PUP-D PUP-C PUP-B N/K MVAN MPV-D MIC CDV
SUV-C is a segment busterSUV-C is a segment buster
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
• Capacity is 1 million • Honda has only new plant (Campana)
• Capacity is 1 million • Honda has only new plant (Campana)
Million Units
Produccion: Inversiones que Complementanel Crecimiento de MERCOSUR
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0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Light Vehicle Production Capacity OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
Ventas de Vehiculos por Segmento e Origen
2010
Local Imp. Total
A-Segment Car 0 16,890 16,890
A-Segment LCV 0 0 0
A-Segment MPV 0 0 0
A-Segment Pickup 0 0 0
A-Segment SUV 0 0 0
TOTAL 0 16,890 16,890
% 0.0% 100.0%
2010
Local Imp. Total
B-Segment Car 129,449 203,833 333,282
B-Segment LCV 0 7,562 7,562
B-Segment MPV 0 9,291 9,291
B-Segment Pickup 0 7,858 7,858
B-Segment SUV 0 21,596 21,596
TOTAL 129,449 250,140 379,589
% 34.1% 65.9%
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Segmento ASegmento A
Segmento CSegmento C Segmento DSegmento D
Segmento BSegmento B
2010
Local Imp. Total
C-Segment Car 31,812 61,342 93,154
C-Segment LCV 28,807 0 28,807
C-Segment MPV 2,098 12,483 14,581
C-Segment Pickup 0 0 0
C-Segment SUV 0 13,829 13,829
TOTAL 62,717 87,654 150,371
% 41.7% 58.3%
2010
Local Imp. Total
D-Segment Car 13 10,546 10,559
D-Segment LCV 0 214 214
D-Segment MPV 0 4,302 4,302
D-Segment Pickup 0 0 0
D-Segment SUV 0 7,627 7,627
TOTAL 13 22,689 22,702
% 0.1% 99.9%
Ventas de Vehiculos por Segmento e Origen
2010
Local Imp. Total
CompactFF Car 0 0 0
CompactFF LCV 0 2,077 2,077
CompactFF MPV 0 0 0
CompactFF Pickup 38,232 12,379 50,611
CompactFF SUV 2,017 789 2,806
TOTAL 40,249 15,245 55,494
% 72.5% 27.5%
2010
Local Imp. Total
FullSizeFF Car 0 0 0
FullSizeFF LCV 3,105 4,063 7,168
FullSizeFF MPV 0 0 0
FullSizeFF Pickup 0 2,581 2,581
FullSizeFF SUV 0 0 0
TOTAL 3,105 6,644 9,749
% 31.8% 68.2%
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Compact BOFCompact BOF Fullsize BOFFullsize BOF
Argentina Scorecard
Pluses:
• Economia en repunte
• Financiamiento
• Commodities
• Mayor exportador de oro
• Estabilizacion de Finanzas Publicas
Minuses:
• Inflacion
• Confianza del Consumidor
• Elecciones
• Cambio de Moneda (Importados)
• Demografias
• Crecimiento de la Poblacion
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 60
• Estabilizacion de Finanzas Publicas
• Infraestructura (Energia)
• Empleo
• Cambio de moneda (Exportaciones)
• Apoyo Gubernamental a la Industria
• Nueva gama de productos
• Inversion de las terminales
• Crecimiento de la Poblacion
• Motorizacion
• Dependencia en commodities
Muchas Gracias por vuestraatencion!
Guido Vildozo
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 61
Guido VildozoManager, Latin AmericaJunio 17, [email protected]