Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook
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ther Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook
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Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook. Quick Take: Global Light Vehicle Outlook – Forecast 2014 vs. 2013. Sales expected to finish at 86 million in 2014 (vs. 79.7 million in 2013) China the biggest sales gainer compared even to entire global regions - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
Quick Take: Global Light Vehicle Outlook – Forecast 2014 vs. 2013
• Sales expected to finish at 86 million in 2014 (vs. 79.7 million in 2013)
• China the biggest sales gainer compared even to entire global regions
• Declines in Australia, India, and especially Thailand, flattening sales results in rest of Asia-Pacific
• Europe rebounding – despite Russia/Ukraine problem
• North America still solid• Weakness in Argentina,
Brazil and Chile cutting demand in South America
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Global Sales Outlook (in millions)
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
2007 Actual
2013 Actual
20142015
20162017
20182019
20202021
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MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
SOUTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA-PACIFIC (LESS CHINA)
CHINA
87.7 mil-lion
107.5 million
Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast• Annual production
tops 100 million units in 2018
• By 2021, global manufacturers producing nearly 20 million additional vehicles per year from 2014
Volume in millions
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
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Regional Outlook: China
No stopping production juggernaut
China continues to be the driving force behind global production
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Volume in Millions
Compound Annual Growth Rate (2014-21) of 4.1%
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
Regional Outlook: China
Mfr. 2014 Mfr. 2021
1 Volkswagen 3.57 Volkswagen 4.58
2 General Motors 1.87 General Motors 2.20
3 SAIC-GM-Wuling 1.76 SAIC-GM-Wuling 1.97
4 Hyundai Motor 1.67 Hyundai Motor 1.85
5 Changan Auto 1.31 Changan Auto 1.66
6 Beijing Auto 0.99 Honda Motor 1.41
7 Toyota Motor 0.92 Renault/Nissan 1.38
8 Ford Motor 0.86 Beijing Auto 1.27
9 Honda Motor 0.82 Ford Motor 1.24
10 Renault/Nissan 0.82 Toyota Motor 1.21
11 Dongfeng Motors 0.82 Dongfeng Motors 1.15
12 Great Wall Auto 0.77 Great Wall Auto 1.12
13 PSA/Peug.-Cit. 0.73 PSA/Peug.-Cit. 0.97
14 Brilliance China 0.55 Geely Group 0.91
15 Chery 0.49 Chery 0.74
Top 15 OEMs – 2021 vs. 2014 (millions)• Volkswagen’s annual volume increases by one 1 million units by 2021
• Honda, Renault/Nissan and Geely move up in rank
• Though not in the Top 15, several China-based manufacturers will experience strong growth rates between 2014 and 2021
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
26.2
2021
Regional Outlook: Asia-Pacific(less China)
Overall solid growth but mixed bag by country
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2014
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Volume in Millions
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
Regional Outlook: Asia-Pacific(less China)
2013 (Actual) 2014 2021 CAGR (2014-21)
Japan 9.19 9.69 9.72 0.0%
India 3.67 3.76 5.47 4.8%
South Korea 4.46 4.75 4.68 -0.2%
Thailand 2.65 2.10 2.99 4.5%
Indonesia 1.13 1.37 1.84 3.8%
Malaysia 0.59 0.61 0.70 1.8%
Taiwan 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.8%
Australia 0.21 0.19 - -
Other 0.30 0.33 0.42 2.8%CAGR: Compound annual growth rate
Forecast Production by Country (millions)• Japan remains a major production
hub in Asia despite expanded global sourcing by home-grown manufacturers
• India gets the majority of volume gains
• Labor issues, strong won dampening South Korea outlook
• Production projected to end in Australia by 2018
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
23.5
2021
Regional Outlook: Europe Volume rebounding as long as Eurozone
continues economic growth and Russia doesn’t drag down the East
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2007 Actual
Volume in Millions
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
Regional Outlook: Europe
2013 (Actual) 2014 2021 CAGR (2014-21)
EASTERN EUROPE 6.7 6.9 8.1 2.0%
Russia 1.9 1.9 2.4 3.0%
Czech Republic 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.4%
Turkey 1.1 1.0 1.3 2.5%
Slovakia 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3%
Poland 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.3%
Other 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3%
WESTERN EUROPE 12.4 13.0 15.4 2.2%
Germany 5.5 5.6 6.2 1.3%
Spain 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.5%
France 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.8%
United Kingdom 1.5 1.5 1.9 3.0%
Italy 0.6 0.7 1.1 6.4%
Other 1.0 1.0 1.2 2.3%
Forecast Production by Country (millions)
CAGR: Compound annual growth rate
• West Europe stops bleeding capacity to the east
• Russia big concern – downgrade outlook if economy fails to show signs of upturn
• UK bouncing back as one of lower cost countries to manufacture goods
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
18.5
2021
Regional Outlook: North America Exports more significant but U.S. market still
main driver of production volume
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Volume in Millions
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
Regional Outlook: North America
2013 (Actual) 2014 2021 CAGR (2014-21)NORTH AMERICA 16.2 16.9 18.5 1.1%Canada 2.4 2.3 1.8 -3.2%Mexico 2.9 3.2 4.4 4.2%United States 10.9 11.5 12.3 0.9%
2013 (Actual) 2014 2021 CAGR (2014-21)General Motors 3.29 3.40 3.53 0.5%Ford Motor 3.09 2.96 3.08 0.5%Fiat-Chrysler 2.51 2.79 2.54 -1.2%Honda Motor 1.78 1.82 2.12 1.9%Toyota Motor 1.86 1.90 1.94 0.3%Renault/Nissan 1.47 1.73 1.76 0.2%Hyundai/Kia 0.77 0.77 1.10 4.6%Volkswagen/Audi 0.65 0.62 0.89 4.6%BMW 0.30 0.35 0.55 5.7%Daimler 0.21 0.23 0.37 6.2%Subaru 0.17 0.18 0.31 6.8%Other 0.09 0.17 0.30 7.4%
CAGR: Compound annual growth rate
Forecast Production by Country, OEM (millions)
• Mexico assembling over 1 million additional vehicles in 2021 from 2014 – capacity to build over 5 million
• Biggest growth rates among smallest manufacturers
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
Regional Outlook: South America Global penetration surges in seven years
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Volume in Millions
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
Regional Outlook: South AmericaForecast Production by Country, OEM (millions)
2013 (Actual) 2014 2021 CAGR (2014-21)SOUTH AMERICA 4.6 3.8 6.1 6.2%Brazil 3.5 2.9 4.8 6.8%Argentina 0.8 0.6 0.9 4.2%Other 0.3 0.3 0.4 4.6%
CAGR: Compound annual growth rate
2013 (Actual) 2014 2021 CAGR (2014-21)Renault/Nissan 0.482 0.475 1.034 10.2%Volkswagen 0.868 0.620 1.029 6.5%Fiat-Chrysler 0.919 0.812 0.977 2.3%General Motors 0.879 0.711 0.791 1.3%Ford Motor 0.445 0.362 0.595 6.4%Honda Motor 0.172 0.124 0.389 15.4%PSA/Peugeot-Citroen 0.262 0.164 0.331 9.2%Toyota Motor 0.253 0.213 0.320 5.2%Other 0.289 0.279 0.633 10.8%
• Overall volume and growth mostly dependent on Brazil
• Renault/Nissan, Volkswagen forecast for huge volume increases
• Smaller manufacturers, spurred by China-based OEMs, will make a bigger dent
Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from
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