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The Millennium Ecosystem The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios and Assessment Scenarios and the Future for Ecosystems the Future for Ecosystems

and Peopleand PeopleA. H. ZakriA. H. Zakri

Centre for Global Sustainability StudiesCentre for Global Sustainability StudiesUniversiti Sains MalaysiaUniversiti Sains Malaysia

6 February 2009, Tokyo6 February 2009, Tokyo

Largest assessment of the health of Largest assessment of the health of EarthEarth’’s ecosystemss ecosystems

Experts and Review ProcessExperts and Review Process•• Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countriesPrepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries•• 8080--person independent board of review editorsperson independent board of review editors•• Review comments from 850 experts and Review comments from 850 experts and

governmentsgovernments•• Includes information from 33 subIncludes information from 33 sub--global global

assessmentsassessments

GovernanceGovernance•• Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000•• Authorized by governments through 4 conventions Authorized by governments through 4 conventions •• Partnership of UN agencies, conventions, business, Partnership of UN agencies, conventions, business,

nonnon--governmental organizations with a multigovernmental organizations with a multi--stakeholder board of directors stakeholder board of directors

MA FrameworkMA Framework

Direct Drivers

Indirect Drivers

EcosystemServices

Human Well-being

Direct Drivers of ChangeChanges in land use Species introduction or removalTechnology adaptation and useExternal inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumptionClimate changeNatural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

Indirect Drivers of ChangeDemographicEconomic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework)Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)Science and TechnologyCultural and Religious

Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction

Basic material for a good lifeHealthGood Social RelationsSecurityFreedom of choice and action

1. 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 YearsEcosystem Changes in Last 50 Years2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem ChangeChange

Three major problems may decrease longThree major problems may decrease long--term benefitsterm benefits

•• Degradation of Ecosystem ServicesDegradation of Ecosystem Services•• Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear ChangesIncreased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes•• Exacerbation of Poverty for Some PeopleExacerbation of Poverty for Some People3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

MA Findings MA Findings -- OutlineOutline

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Finding #1Finding #1•• Over the past 50 years, humans have Over the past 50 years, humans have

changed ecosystems more rapidly and changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period extensively than in any comparable period of time in human historyof time in human history

•• This has resulted in a substantial and This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earthlife on Earth

Unprecedented change: Unprecedented change: Ecosystems Ecosystems

•• More land was converted to cropland in the More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850 between 1700 and 1850

•• 20% of the world20% of the world’’s coral reefs were lost and s coral reefs were lost and 20% degraded in the last several decades20% degraded in the last several decades

•• 35% of mangrove area has been lost in the 35% of mangrove area has been lost in the last several decadeslast several decades

•• Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960since 1960

•• Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960since 1960

Significant and largely irreversible Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversitychanges to species diversity

•• The distribution of species The distribution of species on Earth is becoming more on Earth is becoming more homogenous homogenous

•• Humans have increased Humans have increased the species extinction rate the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 by as much as 1,000 times over background times over background rates typical over the rates typical over the planetplanet’’s history (s history (medium medium certainty)certainty)

•• 1010––30% of mammal, bird, 30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are and amphibian species are currently threatened with currently threatened with extinction (extinction (medium to medium to high certainty)high certainty)

The balance sheetThe balance sheetProvisioningProvisioning

Regulating Regulating

CulturalCultural

CropsLivestockAquacultureCarbon sequestration

Capture fisheriesWild foodsWood fuelGenetic resourcesBiochemicalsFresh WaterAir quality regulationRegional & local climate

regulationErosion regulationWater purificationPest regulationPollinationNatural Hazard

regulationSpiritual & religious Aesthetic values

TimberFiberWater regulationDisease regulationRecreation & ecotourism

Enhanced Degraded Mixed

Bottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem Services are Degraded

Background Findings Impact

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1. 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 YearsEcosystem Changes in Last 50 Years2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem ChangeChange

Three major problems may decrease longThree major problems may decrease long--term benefitsterm benefits

•• Degradation of Ecosystem ServicesDegradation of Ecosystem Services•• Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear ChangesIncreased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes•• Exacerbation of Poverty for Some PeopleExacerbation of Poverty for Some People3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

MA Findings MA Findings -- OutlineOutline Finding #2Finding #2•• The changes that have been made to The changes that have been made to

ecosystems have contributed to substantial ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human wellnet gains in human well--being and economic being and economic developmentdevelopment

Since 1960, while population doubled and Since 1960, while population doubled and economic activity increased 6economic activity increased 6--fold, food production fold, food production increased 2 increased 2 ½½ times, food price has declined, water times, food price has declined, water use doubled, wood harvest for pulp tripled, use doubled, wood harvest for pulp tripled, hydropower doubled.hydropower doubled.

•• But these gains have been achieved at But these gains have been achieved at growing costs that, unless addressed, will growing costs that, unless addressed, will substantially diminish the benefits that future substantially diminish the benefits that future generations obtain from ecosystems generations obtain from ecosystems

Degradation of ecosystem services Degradation of ecosystem services often causes significant harm to often causes significant harm to

human wellhuman well--beingbeing•• The total economic The total economic

value associated with value associated with managing ecosystems managing ecosystems more sustainably is more sustainably is often higher than the often higher than the value associated with value associated with conversionconversion

•• Conversion may still Conversion may still occur because private occur because private economic benefits are economic benefits are often greater for the often greater for the converted systemconverted system

Increased likelihood of nonlinear Increased likelihood of nonlinear changeschanges

•• There is There is established but incompleteestablished but incompleteevidence that changes being made in evidence that changes being made in ecosystems are increasing the likelihood ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of nonlinear changes in ecosystems of nonlinear changes in ecosystems (including accelerating, abrupt, and (including accelerating, abrupt, and potentially irreversible changes), with potentially irreversible changes), with important consequences for human important consequences for human wellwell--beingbeing

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Examples of nonlinear change Examples of nonlinear change Fisheries collapseFisheries collapseEutrophicationEutrophication and and hypoxiahypoxiaDisease emergenceDisease emergenceSpecies Species introductions and introductions and losseslossesRegional climate Regional climate changechange

Level of poverty remains high and Level of poverty remains high and inequities are growinginequities are growing

Economics and Human DevelopmentEconomics and Human Development•• 1.1 billion people surviving on less than $1 per day of income. 1.1 billion people surviving on less than $1 per day of income.

70% in rural areas where they are highly dependent on 70% in rural areas where they are highly dependent on ecosystem servicesecosystem services

•• Inequality has increased over the past decade. During the Inequality has increased over the past decade. During the 1990s, 21 countries experienced declines in their rankings in 1990s, 21 countries experienced declines in their rankings in the Human Development Indexthe Human Development Index

Access to Ecosystem ServicesAccess to Ecosystem Services•• An estimated 852 million people were undernourished in An estimated 852 million people were undernourished in

20002000––02, up 37 million from the period 199702, up 37 million from the period 1997––9999•• Per capita food production has declined in subPer capita food production has declined in sub--Saharan Africa Saharan Africa •• Some 1.1 billion people still lack access to improved water Some 1.1 billion people still lack access to improved water

supply, and more than 2.6 billion lack access to improved supply, and more than 2.6 billion lack access to improved sanitationsanitation

•• Water scarcity affects roughly 1Water scarcity affects roughly 1––2 billion people worldwide 2 billion people worldwide

Ecosystem services and poverty Ecosystem services and poverty reductionreduction

Degradation of ecosystem services harms poor peopleDegradation of ecosystem services harms poor people•• Half the urban population in Africa, Asia, Latin America, Half the urban population in Africa, Asia, Latin America,

and the Caribbean suffers from one or more diseases and the Caribbean suffers from one or more diseases associated with inadequate water and sanitationassociated with inadequate water and sanitation

•• The declining state of capture fisheries is reducing an The declining state of capture fisheries is reducing an inexpensive source of protein in developing countries. inexpensive source of protein in developing countries. Per capita fish consumption in developing countries, Per capita fish consumption in developing countries, excluding China, declined between 1985 and 1997excluding China, declined between 1985 and 1997

•• Desertification affects the livelihoods of millions of Desertification affects the livelihoods of millions of people, including a large portion of the poor in people, including a large portion of the poor in drylandsdrylands

Pattern of winners and losers has not been taken into account Pattern of winners and losers has not been taken into account in management decisions in management decisions

1. 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 YearsEcosystem Changes in Last 50 Years2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem ChangeChange

Three major problems may decrease longThree major problems may decrease long--term benefitsterm benefits

•• Degradation of Ecosystem ServicesDegradation of Ecosystem Services•• Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear ChangesIncreased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes•• Exacerbation of Poverty for Some PeopleExacerbation of Poverty for Some People3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

MA Findings MA Findings -- OutlineOutline

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Envisioning the Future for Ecosystems Envisioning the Future for Ecosystems and Peopleand People

The capacity of EarthThe capacity of Earth’’s ecosystems to provide s ecosystems to provide lifelife--support services is changing rapidly, at a support services is changing rapidly, at a time when human pressures on ecosystems are time when human pressures on ecosystems are also increasingalso increasingThese changes have enormous implications for These changes have enormous implications for life on Earth. Yet they can seem bewildering life on Earth. Yet they can seem bewildering because of their complexity, speed, surprises, because of their complexity, speed, surprises, and demand on human ingenuityand demand on human ingenuityScenarios organize information about plausible Scenarios organize information about plausible causes of and responses to longcauses of and responses to long--term change.term change.The central idea is to categorize outcomes into a The central idea is to categorize outcomes into a few plausible futures, making the complex more few plausible futures, making the complex more comprehensible. Contrasts among scenarios comprehensible. Contrasts among scenarios illuminate key linkages and probable outcomes of illuminate key linkages and probable outcomes of various approaches or decisions.various approaches or decisions.

Envisioning the Future for Ecosystems Envisioning the Future for Ecosystems and Peopleand People

Scenarios are plausible, provocative, Scenarios are plausible, provocative, and relevant stories about how the and relevant stories about how the future might unfoldfuture might unfoldThey can be told in both words and They can be told in both words and numbersnumbersScenarios are not forecasts, Scenarios are not forecasts, projections, predictions, or projections, predictions, or recommendationsrecommendations

Envisioning the Future for Ecosystems Envisioning the Future for Ecosystems and Peopleand People

Scenarios support more informed and rational Scenarios support more informed and rational decisiondecision--making in situations of uncertainty by making in situations of uncertainty by offering insights into uncertainties and the offering insights into uncertainties and the consequences of current and possible future consequences of current and possible future actionsactionsScenarios are a powerful way of exploring Scenarios are a powerful way of exploring possible consequences of different policiespossible consequences of different policiesThey force us to state our assumptions clearly, They force us to state our assumptions clearly, enabling the consequences of those assumptions enabling the consequences of those assumptions to be analyzedto be analyzedScenarios explore consequences of different Scenarios explore consequences of different policy choices based on current knowledge of policy choices based on current knowledge of underlying underlying socioecologicalsocioecological processes processes

Developing the MA scenariosDeveloping the MA scenariosThe MA scenarios assess the consequences of The MA scenarios assess the consequences of contrasting development paths for ecosystem contrasting development paths for ecosystem servicesservicesBecause stresses on ecosystems are increasing, it Because stresses on ecosystems are increasing, it is likely that large, costly, and irreversible is likely that large, costly, and irreversible changes will become more common in the future. changes will become more common in the future. This will lead to reduced services provided by This will lead to reduced services provided by ecosystems.ecosystems.Management that deliberately maintains Management that deliberately maintains resilience of ecosystems can reduce the risk of resilience of ecosystems can reduce the risk of large, costly, or irreversible change.large, costly, or irreversible change.Proactive or anticipatory management of Proactive or anticipatory management of ecosystems is particularly important under ecosystems is particularly important under rapidly changing or novel conditionsrapidly changing or novel conditions

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Developing the MA scenariosDeveloping the MA scenariosThe MA developed a set of global The MA developed a set of global scenarios to address the effects of scenarios to address the effects of different development paths on ecosystem different development paths on ecosystem services and human wellservices and human well--beingbeingThe scenarios extend into the future The scenarios extend into the future (2050) from the current state and trends (2050) from the current state and trends (2000)(2000)Although the scenarios focus on the global Although the scenarios focus on the global scale, many implications for local and scale, many implications for local and regional ecosystems were examined regional ecosystems were examined

Developing the MA scenariosDeveloping the MA scenarios

The MA scenarios explore the potential The MA scenarios explore the potential consequences of alternate pathways to consequences of alternate pathways to development, and they inform decisiondevelopment, and they inform decision--makers about the consequences for makers about the consequences for ecosystem servicesecosystem servicesThe scenarios were designed to explore The scenarios were designed to explore contrasting transitions of society as well contrasting transitions of society as well as contrasting approaches to policies as contrasting approaches to policies about ecosystem services about ecosystem services

Developing the MA scenariosDeveloping the MA scenariosWe explore two kinds of transitions We explore two kinds of transitions –– one in one in which the world becomes increasingly globalized which the world becomes increasingly globalized and another in which it becomes increasingly and another in which it becomes increasingly regionalizedregionalizedFurthermore , we address two different Furthermore , we address two different approaches for governance and policies related to approaches for governance and policies related to ecosystems and their servicesecosystems and their servicesIn one case, management of ecosystems is In one case, management of ecosystems is reactive, and most problems are addressed only reactive, and most problems are addressed only after they become obvious. In the other case, after they become obvious. In the other case, management of ecosystems is proactive, and management of ecosystems is proactive, and policies deliberately seek to maintain policies deliberately seek to maintain ecoystemecoystemservices for the long term. services for the long term.

MA ScenariosMA Scenarios•• Not predictions Not predictions –– scenarios are plausible futuresscenarios are plausible futures•• Both quantitative models and qualitative analysis Both quantitative models and qualitative analysis

used in scenario developmentused in scenario development

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Scenario StorylinesScenario Storylines•• Global OrchestrationGlobal Orchestration Globally connected Globally connected

society that focuses on global trade and society that focuses on global trade and economic liberalization and takes a economic liberalization and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem problems reactive approach to ecosystem problems but that also takes strong steps to reduce but that also takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality and to invest in poverty and inequality and to invest in public goods such as infrastructure and public goods such as infrastructure and education.education.

•• Order from StrengthOrder from Strength Regionalized and Regionalized and fragmented world, concerned with security fragmented world, concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, paying little attention to regional markets, paying little attention to public goods, and taking a reactive public goods, and taking a reactive approach to ecosystem problems.approach to ecosystem problems.

Scenario StorylinesScenario Storylines•• Adapting MosaicAdapting Mosaic Regional watershedRegional watershed--scale scale

ecosystems are the focus of political and ecosystems are the focus of political and economic activity. Local institutions are economic activity. Local institutions are strengthened and local ecosystem strengthened and local ecosystem management strategies are common; management strategies are common; societies develop a strongly proactive societies develop a strongly proactive approach to the management of approach to the management of ecosystems.ecosystems.

•• TechnoGarden TechnoGarden Globally connected world Globally connected world relying strongly on environmentally sound relying strongly on environmentally sound technology, using highly managed, often technology, using highly managed, often engineered, ecosystems to deliver engineered, ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services, and taking a proactive ecosystem services, and taking a proactive approach to the management of approach to the management of ecosystems in an effort to avoid problems. ecosystems in an effort to avoid problems.

Finding #3: Finding #3:

•• The degradation of ecosystem services The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century and is a barrier to first half of this century and is a barrier to achieving the Millennium Development achieving the Millennium Development GoalsGoals

Direct drivers growing in Direct drivers growing in intensityintensity

Most direct drivers of Most direct drivers of degradation in degradation in ecosystem services ecosystem services remain constant or are remain constant or are growing in intensity in growing in intensity in most ecosystemsmost ecosystems

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Changes in indirect driversChanges in indirect drivers

In MA Scenarios:In MA Scenarios:•• Population Population

projected to grow projected to grow to 8to 8––10 billion in 10 billion in 20502050

•• Per capita income Per capita income projected to projected to increase twoincrease two-- to to fourfoldfourfold

Crop Land Forest Area

Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios

Changes in direct driversChanges in direct drivers

Changes in direct driversChanges in direct driversHabitat Habitat

transformation:transformation:•• Further 10Further 10––20% of 20% of

grassland and grassland and forestland is projected forestland is projected to be converted by to be converted by 20502050

Overexploitation, Overexploitation, overfishing: overfishing: •• Pressures continue to Pressures continue to

grow in all scenariosgrow in all scenarios

Invasive alien species:Invasive alien species:•• Spread continues to Spread continues to

increaseincrease

Changes in direct drivers:Changes in direct drivers:Nutrient loadingNutrient loading

•• Humans have already doubled the Humans have already doubled the flow of reactive nitrogen on the flow of reactive nitrogen on the continents, and some projections continents, and some projections suggest that this may increase by suggest that this may increase by roughly a further two thirds by roughly a further two thirds by 2050 2050

Estimated Total Reactive Nitrogen Deposition from the Atmosphere

Accounts for 12% of the reactive nitrogen entering ecosystems, although it is higher in some regions (e.g., 33% in the United States)

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Changes in direct driversChanges in direct driversImpacts of Excessive Nitrogen FlowsImpacts of Excessive Nitrogen Flows

Environmental effects:Environmental effects:•• eutrophication of eutrophication of

freshwater and coastal freshwater and coastal ecosystems ecosystems

•• contribution to acid rain contribution to acid rain •• loss of biodiversityloss of biodiversity

Contribution to:Contribution to:

•• creation of groundcreation of ground--level level ozoneozone

•• destruction of ozone in destruction of ozone in the stratosphere the stratosphere

•• contribution to global contribution to global warmingwarming

Resulting health effects: Resulting health effects: •• consequences of ozone consequences of ozone

pollution on asthma and pollution on asthma and respiratory function respiratory function

•• increased allergies and asthma increased allergies and asthma due to increased pollen due to increased pollen productionproduction

•• risk of bluerisk of blue--baby syndromebaby syndrome•• increased risk of cancer and increased risk of cancer and

other chronic diseases from other chronic diseases from nitrate in drinking water, nitrate in drinking water,

•• increased risk of a variety of increased risk of a variety of pulmonary and cardiac pulmonary and cardiac diseases from production of diseases from production of fine particles in the atmospherefine particles in the atmosphere

Observed recent impacts of climate Observed recent impacts of climate changes on ecosystems: changes on ecosystems:

•• Changes in species distributionsChanges in species distributions•• Changes in population sizesChanges in population sizes•• Changes in the timing of reproduction or Changes in the timing of reproduction or

migration eventsmigration events•• Increase in the frequency of pest and disease Increase in the frequency of pest and disease

outbreaksoutbreaks•• Many coral reefs have undergone major, Many coral reefs have undergone major,

although often partially reversible, bleaching although often partially reversible, bleaching episodes when local sea surface temperatures episodes when local sea surface temperatures have increasedhave increased

Changes in direct drivers:Changes in direct drivers:Climate ChangeClimate Change

Potential future impactsPotential future impacts•• By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may

be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globallyin ecosystem services globally

•• Harm to biodiversity will grow worldwide with increasing rates Harm to biodiversity will grow worldwide with increasing rates of change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of changeof change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of change

•• Some ecosystem services in some regions may initially be Some ecosystem services in some regions may initially be enhanced by projected changes in climate. As climate change enhanced by projected changes in climate. As climate change becomes more severe the harmful impacts outweigh the becomes more severe the harmful impacts outweigh the benefits in most regions of the worldbenefits in most regions of the world

Net harmful impact on ecosystem servicesNet harmful impact on ecosystem services•• The balance of scientific evidence suggests that there will be aThe balance of scientific evidence suggests that there will be a

significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2oo C C above preindustrial levels (above preindustrial levels (medium certainty). medium certainty). This would This would require COrequire CO22 stabilization at less than 450 ppm.stabilization at less than 450 ppm.

Changes in direct drivers:Changes in direct drivers:Climate ChangeClimate Change

Changes in ecosystem services Changes in ecosystem services under MA Scenariosunder MA Scenarios

•• Demand for food crops is Demand for food crops is projected to grow by 70projected to grow by 70––85% by 2050, and water 85% by 2050, and water withdrawals by 30withdrawals by 30--85%85%

•• Food security is not Food security is not achieved by 2050, and achieved by 2050, and child undernutrition would child undernutrition would be difficult to eradicate be difficult to eradicate (and is projected to (and is projected to increase in some regions increase in some regions in some MA scenarios)in some MA scenarios)

•• Globally, the equilibrium Globally, the equilibrium number of plant species is number of plant species is projected to be reduced projected to be reduced by roughly 10by roughly 10––15% as 15% as the result of habitat loss the result of habitat loss over the period of 1970 to over the period of 1970 to 2050 (2050 (low certaintylow certainty))

Child undernourishment in 2050 under MA Scenarios

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Changes in ecosystem services Changes in ecosystem services under MA Scenariosunder MA Scenarios

Water Availability Water Availability •• Global water Global water

availability increases availability increases under all MA under all MA scenarios. By 2050, scenarios. By 2050, global water global water availability increases availability increases by 5by 5––7% (depending 7% (depending on the scenario)on the scenario)

▪▪ Demand for water is Demand for water is projected to grow by projected to grow by between 30% and between 30% and 85%85%

Water Withdrawals in 2050 under MA Scenarios

Degradation of ecosystem services is a significant Degradation of ecosystem services is a significant barrier to achievement of MDGsbarrier to achievement of MDGs

Many of the regions facing the greatest challenges in achieving Many of the regions facing the greatest challenges in achieving the 2015 targets the 2015 targets coincide with regions facing the greatest problems of ecosystem coincide with regions facing the greatest problems of ecosystem degradation degradation

Although socioeconomic factors will play a primary role in achieAlthough socioeconomic factors will play a primary role in achieving many of the ving many of the MDGs, targets are unlikely to be met without improvement in ecosMDGs, targets are unlikely to be met without improvement in ecosystem ystem management for goals such as: management for goals such as:

•• Poverty ReductionPoverty Reduction

•• HungerHunger

All four MA scenarios project progress but at rates far slower tAll four MA scenarios project progress but at rates far slower than needed han needed to attain the MDG target. The improvements are slowest in the rto attain the MDG target. The improvements are slowest in the regions in egions in which the problems are greatest: South Asia and subwhich the problems are greatest: South Asia and sub--Saharan Africa Saharan Africa

•• Child mortalityChild mortality

Three of the MA scenarios project reductions in child undernouriThree of the MA scenarios project reductions in child undernourishment of shment of between 10% and 60% but undernourishment increases by 10% in between 10% and 60% but undernourishment increases by 10% in one.one.

•• DiseaseDisease

Progress toward this Goal is achieved in three scenarios, but inProgress toward this Goal is achieved in three scenarios, but in one one scenario the health and social conditions for the North and Soutscenario the health and social conditions for the North and South further h further diverge, exacerbating health problems in many lowdiverge, exacerbating health problems in many low--income regionsincome regions

•• Environmental Sustainability including access to waterEnvironmental Sustainability including access to water

Changes in human wellChanges in human well--being under being under MA scenariosMA scenarios

•• In three of the four MA In three of the four MA scenarios, between scenarios, between three and five of the three and five of the components of wellcomponents of well--being (material needs, being (material needs, health, security, social health, security, social relations, freedom) relations, freedom) improve between 2000 improve between 2000 and 2050 and 2050

•• In one scenario (In one scenario (Order Order from Strength) from Strength) conditions are projected conditions are projected to decline, particularly in to decline, particularly in developing countriesdeveloping countries

1. 1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 YearsEcosystem Changes in Last 50 Years2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem 2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem ChangeChange

Three major problems may decrease longThree major problems may decrease long--term benefitsterm benefits

•• Degradation of Ecosystem ServicesDegradation of Ecosystem Services•• Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear ChangesIncreased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes•• Exacerbation of Poverty for Some PeopleExacerbation of Poverty for Some People3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

MA Findings MA Findings -- OutlineOutline

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Finding #4: Finding #4: •• The challenge of reversing the degradation of The challenge of reversing the degradation of

ecosystems while meeting increasing ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services can be partially demands for their services can be partially met under some scenarios that the MA met under some scenarios that the MA considered but these involve significant considered but these involve significant changes in policies, institutions and practices, changes in policies, institutions and practices, that are not currently under waythat are not currently under way

•• Many options exist to conserve or enhance Many options exist to conserve or enhance specific ecosystem services in ways that specific ecosystem services in ways that reduce negative tradereduce negative trade--offs or that provide offs or that provide positive synergies with other ecosystem positive synergies with other ecosystem servicesservices

Improvements in services can be Improvements in services can be achieved by 2050achieved by 2050

Three of the four scenarios show that significant Three of the four scenarios show that significant changes in policy can partially mitigate the negative changes in policy can partially mitigate the negative consequences of growing pressures on ecosystems, consequences of growing pressures on ecosystems, although the changes required are large and not although the changes required are large and not currently under waycurrently under way

Examples of changes in policies and Examples of changes in policies and practices that yield positive outcomespractices that yield positive outcomes

Global OrchestrationGlobal Orchestration•• Major investments in public goods (e.g., education, Major investments in public goods (e.g., education,

infrastructure) and poverty reductioninfrastructure) and poverty reduction•• Trade barriers and distorting subsidies eliminatedTrade barriers and distorting subsidies eliminated

Adapting MosaicAdapting Mosaic•• Widespread use of active adaptive management Widespread use of active adaptive management •• Investment in education (countries spend 13% of GDP on Investment in education (countries spend 13% of GDP on

education, compared to 3.5% today)education, compared to 3.5% today)TechnoGardenTechnoGarden•• Significant investment in development of technologies to Significant investment in development of technologies to

increase efficiency of use of ecosystem servicesincrease efficiency of use of ecosystem services•• Widespread use of Widespread use of ‘‘payments for ecosystem servicespayments for ecosystem services’’ and and

development of market mechanismsdevelopment of market mechanisms

Past actions and potential for Past actions and potential for substitutionsubstitution

Previous responses to ecosystem Previous responses to ecosystem degradationdegradation•• Past actions have yielded significant benefits, Past actions have yielded significant benefits,

but these improvements have generally not but these improvements have generally not kept pace with growing pressures and kept pace with growing pressures and demands.demands.

For example, more than 100,000 protected areas For example, more than 100,000 protected areas covering about 11.7% of the terrestrial surface have covering about 11.7% of the terrestrial surface have now been established, and these play an important now been established, and these play an important role in the conservation of biodiversity and role in the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services ecosystem services

•• Technological advances have also helped Technological advances have also helped lessen the pressure on ecosystems per unit lessen the pressure on ecosystems per unit increase in demand for ecosystem services. increase in demand for ecosystem services.

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Responses Responses –– Importance of Indirect Importance of Indirect DriversDrivers

Ecosystem degradation can rarely be reversed Ecosystem degradation can rarely be reversed without actions that address one or more indirect without actions that address one or more indirect drivers of change: drivers of change:

•• population change (including growth and migration)population change (including growth and migration)•• change in economic activity (including economic change in economic activity (including economic

growth, disparities in wealth, and trade patterns)growth, disparities in wealth, and trade patterns)•• sociopolitical factors (including factors ranging from sociopolitical factors (including factors ranging from

the presence of conflict to public participation in the presence of conflict to public participation in decisiondecision--making)making)

•• cultural factorscultural factors•• technological changetechnological change

Collectively these factors influence the level of Collectively these factors influence the level of production and consumption of ecosystem production and consumption of ecosystem services and the sustainability of the production. services and the sustainability of the production.

Responses Responses –– Key BarriersKey Barriers•• Inappropriate institutional and governance arrangements, Inappropriate institutional and governance arrangements,

including the presence of corruption and weak systems of including the presence of corruption and weak systems of regulation and accountability. regulation and accountability.

•• Market failures and the misalignment of economic incentives. Market failures and the misalignment of economic incentives. •• Social and behavioral factors, including the lack of political aSocial and behavioral factors, including the lack of political and nd

economic power of some groups that are particularly dependent economic power of some groups that are particularly dependent on ecosystem services or harmed by their degradation.on ecosystem services or harmed by their degradation.

•• Underinvestment in the development and diffusion of technologiesUnderinvestment in the development and diffusion of technologies•• Insufficient knowledge (as well as the poor use of existing Insufficient knowledge (as well as the poor use of existing

knowledge) concerning ecosystem services and responses that knowledge) concerning ecosystem services and responses that could enhance benefits from these services while conserving could enhance benefits from these services while conserving resources.resources.

•• Weak human and institutional capacity related to the assessment Weak human and institutional capacity related to the assessment and management of ecosystem services.and management of ecosystem services.

MA Responses AssessmentMA Responses Assessment

The MA assessed 74 response options for The MA assessed 74 response options for ecosystem services, integrated ecosystem ecosystem services, integrated ecosystem management, conservation and sustainable management, conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, and climate changeuse of biodiversity, and climate change

Responses: InstitutionsResponses: InstitutionsChanges in institutional and environmental governance Changes in institutional and environmental governance

frameworks are sometimes required to create the enabling frameworks are sometimes required to create the enabling conditions for effective management of ecosystems, while in conditions for effective management of ecosystems, while in other cases existing institutions could meet these needs but other cases existing institutions could meet these needs but face significant barriers.face significant barriers.

Promising ResponsesPromising Responses•• Integration of ecosystem management goals within Integration of ecosystem management goals within

other sectors and within broader development planning other sectors and within broader development planning frameworksframeworks

•• Increased coordination among multilateral Increased coordination among multilateral environmental agreements and between environmental environmental agreements and between environmental agreements and other international economic and social agreements and other international economic and social institutions institutions

•• Increased transparency and accountability of Increased transparency and accountability of government and privategovernment and private--sector performance on sector performance on decisions that have an impact on ecosystems, including decisions that have an impact on ecosystems, including through greater involvement of concerned stakeholders through greater involvement of concerned stakeholders in decisionin decision--makingmaking

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Responses: EconomicsResponses: EconomicsEconomic and financial interventions provide powerful Economic and financial interventions provide powerful

instruments to regulate the use of ecosystem goods and services instruments to regulate the use of ecosystem goods and services

Promising ResponsesPromising Responses•• Elimination of subsidies that promote excessive use of ecosystemElimination of subsidies that promote excessive use of ecosystem

services (and, where possible, transfer these subsidies to services (and, where possible, transfer these subsidies to payments for nonpayments for non--marketed ecosystem services)marketed ecosystem services)

Subsidies paid to the agricultural sectors of OECD countries Subsidies paid to the agricultural sectors of OECD countries between 2001 and 2003 averaged over $324 billion annually, between 2001 and 2003 averaged over $324 billion annually, or one third the global value of agricultural products in 2000or one third the global value of agricultural products in 2000Compensatory mechanisms may be needed for poor people Compensatory mechanisms may be needed for poor people who are adversely affected by the removal of subsidieswho are adversely affected by the removal of subsidiesremoval of agricultural production subsidies within the OECD removal of agricultural production subsidies within the OECD would need to be accompanied by actions to minimize adverse would need to be accompanied by actions to minimize adverse impacts on ecosystem services in developing countries impacts on ecosystem services in developing countries

Promising ResponsesPromising Responses•• Greater use of economic instruments and marketGreater use of economic instruments and market--based based

approaches in the management of ecosystem services approaches in the management of ecosystem services (where enabling conditions exist): (where enabling conditions exist):

Taxes or user fees for activities with Taxes or user fees for activities with ““externalexternal”” costs costs (e.g. include taxes on excessive application of (e.g. include taxes on excessive application of nutrients)nutrients)Payment for ecosystem servicesPayment for ecosystem services

For example, in 1996 Costa Rica established a For example, in 1996 Costa Rica established a nationwide system of conservation payments under nationwide system of conservation payments under which Costa Rica brokers contracts between which Costa Rica brokers contracts between international and domestic international and domestic ““buyersbuyers”” and local and local ““sellerssellers”” of sequestered carbon, biodiversity, of sequestered carbon, biodiversity, watershed services, and scenic beautywatershed services, and scenic beauty

Mechanisms to enable consumer preferences to be Mechanisms to enable consumer preferences to be expressed through markets such as existing expressed through markets such as existing certification schemes for sustainable fisheries and certification schemes for sustainable fisheries and forest practicesforest practices

Responses: EconomicsResponses: Economics

Responses: EconomicsResponses: Economics•• MarketMarket--based based

approaches approaches (continued)(continued)

Creation of markets, Creation of markets, including through capincluding through cap--andand--trade systemstrade systems•• One of the most rapidly growing One of the most rapidly growing

markets related to ecosystem markets related to ecosystem services is the carbon market. The services is the carbon market. The value of carbon trades in 2003 was value of carbon trades in 2003 was approximately $300 million. About approximately $300 million. About one quarter of the trades involved one quarter of the trades involved investment in ecosystem services investment in ecosystem services (hydropower or biomass)(hydropower or biomass)

•• It is speculated that this market It is speculated that this market may grow to some $44 billion by may grow to some $44 billion by 20102010 Total Carbon Market Value per Year

Responses: Social & BehavioralResponses: Social & BehavioralThese are generally interventions that stakeholders initiate andThese are generally interventions that stakeholders initiate and

execute through exercising their procedural or democratic rightsexecute through exercising their procedural or democratic rightsin efforts to improve ecosystems and human wellin efforts to improve ecosystems and human well--being being

Promising ResponsesPromising Responses•• Measures to reduce aggregate consumption of unsustainably Measures to reduce aggregate consumption of unsustainably

managed ecosystem servicesmanaged ecosystem servicesBehavioral changes that could reduce demand for Behavioral changes that could reduce demand for threatened ecosystem services can be encouraged through threatened ecosystem services can be encouraged through actions such as education and public awareness programs, actions such as education and public awareness programs, promotion of demandpromotion of demand--side management, commitments by side management, commitments by industry to use raw materials that are from sources industry to use raw materials that are from sources certified as being sustainable, and improved product certified as being sustainable, and improved product labelinglabeling

•• Communication and educationCommunication and education•• Empowerment of groups particularly dependent on ecosystem Empowerment of groups particularly dependent on ecosystem

services or affected by their degradation, including women, services or affected by their degradation, including women, indigenous peoples, and young peopleindigenous peoples, and young people

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Responses: TechnologicalResponses: Technological

Development and diffusion of technologies designed to Development and diffusion of technologies designed to increase the efficiency of resource use or reduce the impacts increase the efficiency of resource use or reduce the impacts of drivers such as climate change and nutrient loading are of drivers such as climate change and nutrient loading are essentialessential

Promising ResponsesPromising Responses•• Promotion of technologies that enable increased crop Promotion of technologies that enable increased crop

yields without harmful impacts related to water, nutrient, yields without harmful impacts related to water, nutrient, and pesticide useand pesticide use

•• Restoration of ecosystem services Restoration of ecosystem services •• Promotion of technologies to increase energy efficiency Promotion of technologies to increase energy efficiency

and reduce greenhouse gas emissionsand reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Responses: KnowledgeResponses: KnowledgeEffective management of ecosystems is constrained both by Effective management of ecosystems is constrained both by

the lack of knowledge and information about ecosystems the lack of knowledge and information about ecosystems and by the failure to use adequately the information that and by the failure to use adequately the information that does existdoes exist

Promising ResponsesPromising Responses•• Incorporation of nonmarket values of ecosystems in Incorporation of nonmarket values of ecosystems in

resource management decisions resource management decisions •• Use of all relevant forms of knowledge and information Use of all relevant forms of knowledge and information

in assessments and decisionin assessments and decision--making, including making, including traditional and practitioners' knowledgetraditional and practitioners' knowledge

•• Enhancement of human and institutional Enhancement of human and institutional capacity for assessing the consequences of capacity for assessing the consequences of ecosystem change for human wellecosystem change for human well--being and being and acting on such assessmentsacting on such assessments

SummarySummary•• Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more

rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time inrapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time inhuman history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food,human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food,fresh water, timber, fiber and fuelfresh water, timber, fiber and fuel

•• The changes that have been made to ecosystems have The changes that have been made to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human wellcontributed to substantial net gains in human well--being and being and economic development, but these gains have been achieved at economic development, but these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of the degradation of many ecosystem growing costs in the form of the degradation of many ecosystem services, increased risks of nonlinear changes, and the services, increased risks of nonlinear changes, and the exacerbation of poverty for some groups of peopleexacerbation of poverty for some groups of people

•• The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century and is a barrier to worse during the first half of this century and is a barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goalsachieving the Millennium Development Goals

•• The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services can be partially mmeeting increasing demands for their services can be partially met et under some scenarios that the MA has considered but these under some scenarios that the MA has considered but these involve significant changes in policies, institutions and practiinvolve significant changes in policies, institutions and practices, ces, that are not currently under waythat are not currently under way

Thank youThank you