Land Market Monitoring: Beyond Land Supply Gerrit-Jan Knaap Professor and Director National Center...

Land Market Monitoring: Beyond Land Supply

Gerrit-Jan KnaapGerrit-Jan KnaapProfessor and DirectorProfessor and Director

National Center for National Center for Smart Growth Research and Smart Growth Research and

EducationEducationUniversity of MarylandUniversity of Maryland

Monitoring InfrastructureMonitoring Infrastructure

Points, lines, and polygonsPoints, lines, and polygons

The concept of service capacityThe concept of service capacity

The concept of capacity consumptionThe concept of capacity consumption

MonitoringMonitoringSchool Systems and PlansSchool Systems and Plans

StreetsSchools

Possible Routes

10 Minute Walk Area0.50 Mile Area

I74Future school

0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Miles

N

Monitoring School Monitoring School Systems and PlansSystems and Plans

Leal Elementary SchoolEXISTING PLANNED

CAPACITY 300 300ENROLLMENT 270 270COMMITED 10PROJECTED -60

AVAILABLE 30 90Units in students

MonitoringMonitoringPark Systems and PlansPark Systems and Plans

StreetsParksI74Streets within buffer zoneO.5 mile buffer of parks

N

0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Miles

Monitoring Park Monitoring Park Systems and PlansSystems and Plans

King (Neighborhood)Park

FACILITY ACRES PLAYGROUNDSWIMMING POOL

PICNIC AREA ………

SUPPLY 4.6 1 0 2 ………CAPACITY 4600 ………SERVICE POPULATION 3000 ………

AVAILABLE 1600 ……… NRPA Standard = 1acre/1000populataion, 1/2 mile Service Area

#

#

#

##

#

##

#

#

##

#

#

#

StreetsI74

SewersInterceptorsCollectors

# Pumping Stations

N

0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Miles

EXISTING PLANNEDCAPACITY 750,000 750,000IN USE 189,000 189,000COMMITTED 443,000 279,000PROPOSAL 252,000

AVAILABLE 118,000 30,000


AVAILABLE 118,000 30,000


AVAILABLE 118,000 30,000


AVAILABLE 118,000 30,000


AVAILABLE 118,000 30,000


AVAILABLE 118,000 30,000

Monitoring Sewer Monitoring Sewer Systems and PlansSystems and Plans

EXISTING PLANNEDCAPACITY 750,000 750,000IN USE 189,000 189,000COMMITTED 443,000PROJECTED 531,000

AVAILABLE 118,000 30,000Units in Gallons per day

MonitoringMonitoringRoad Systems and PlansRoad Systems and Plans

.-,74

(/45

(/150

StreetsArterial StreetsUS HighwaysI74I74 Ramps N

0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Miles

Monitoring Road Monitoring Road Systems and PlansSystems and Plans

Lincoln Avenue between Lincoln Avenue between Pennsylvania and FloridaPennsylvania and Florida

EXISTING PLANNED WIDTH 55 55TRIP CAPACITY 15,000 15,000IN USE 14,000 14,000COMMITTED 0PROJECTED 2000

AVAILABLE 1000 -1000Units in Average Daily Trips

Monitoring Monitoring Residential Land MarketsResidential Land Markets

Population, Acres, Housing units,Population, Acres, Housing units,

Annexations, building permits, zone Annexations, building permits, zone changeschanges

Days of inventoryDays of inventory

Residential Development, 1996 - 2000Residential Development, 1996 - 2000

1996 34,076 1532.517 278.54 257.44 709.25 78.679 … 14.384 14,214 6,546 1581 1312 47751997 34,243 1612.779 278.78 259.77 710.04 153.98 … 15.830 14,301 6,564 1589 1340 48081998 34,872 2202.526 279.29 643.3 717.16 303.13 … 15.830 15,017 6,589 1591 1373 54641999 2212.151 280.91 648.66 717.94 304.78 … 16.030 15,090 6,624 1593 1373 55002000 4152.482 2221.125 282.17 653.1 718.96 307.18 … 16.591 15,191 6,662 1593 1378 5558

5-Yr Growth Rate 8.99% 0.26% 30.74% 58.08%0.27% 0.15% 1.01% 3.28%3.07% 1.37% 0.35%

YearPopula

tionDeveloped

AcresDeveloped

Residential AcresMOR Acres

R-1 Acres

R-2 Acres

R-3 Acres

R-4 Acres …

…

10 + Units

Housing Units

One Unit

2-4 Units

5-9 Units

Residential Vacant Tracts, 1996 - 2000Residential Vacant Tracts, 1996 - 2000

Year Acres Tracts Acres Tracts Acres Tracts1996 748.884 85 610.256 17 138.628 681997 740.965 79 604.312 17 136.653 621998 776.860 44 616.881 22 159.979 221999 771.123 45 612.795 23 158.328 222000 761.663 46 604.620 24 157.043 22

Total Additions 399.947 6 195.108 2 204.839 4Total Consumption 275.160 14 107.742 7 167.418 7Net Subtraction -124.787 8 -87.366 5 -37.421 3Annual Consumption Rate 68.790 3.5 26.936 1.75 41.854 1.75Largest Annual Consumption 197.570 11 107.742 7 89.828 4Years of Inventory 7.405 14.688 2.718

Total S/F M/F

Residential Vacant Lots, 1996 - 2000Residential Vacant Lots, 1996 - 2000

…Year Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots … Acres Lots

1996 -50.527 246 8.256 24 -95.888 66 19.358 93 6.211 18 … 2.988 131997 -50.510 257 8.014 23 -93.222 84 19.515 96 5.247 15 … 1.542 81998 134.002 471 11.634 34 80.938 259 18.371 96 13.654 44 … 1.542 81999 132.821 463 10.009 29 79.657 249 17.589 92 16.360 56 … 1.342 72000 132.717 473 8.754 25 83.393 269 17.358 91 15.252 55 … 0.781 5

Total Additions 306.176 369 4.127 13 195.373 289 1.635 11 104.652 54 … 0.000 0Total Consumption 32.857 139 3.629 12 16.091 80 3.635 14 5.536 19 … 2.207 8Net Subtraction -273.319 -230 -0.498 -1 -179.282 -209 2.000 3 -99.116 -35 … 2.207 8Annual Consumption Rate 8.214 34.75 0.907 3.00 4.023 20.00 0.909 3.50 1.384 4.75 … 0.552 2.00Largest Annual Consumption 9.954 41 1.625 5 5.367 27 1.440 5 2.393 9 … 1.446 5Years of Inventory 16.157 9.649 20.730 19.100 11.021 … 1.415

Total R-1 R-2 R-3 MORR-4

Housing Starts, Maryland CountiesHousing Starts, Maryland Counties

Sources: Census and National Association of Homebuilders Sources: Census and National Association of Homebuilders

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Year

Bu

ildin

g P

erm

its

Anne Arundel County

Baltimore City

Baltimore County

Calvert County

Carroll County

Cecil County

Charles County

Frederick County

Harford County

How ard County

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Queen Anne's County

St. Mary's County

Talbot County

Washington County

Housing Starts, RegionsHousing Starts, Regions

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Year

Bu

ildin

g P

erm

its

United States

Northeast Region

Midw est Region

South Region

West Region

Sources: Census and National Association of Homebuilders Sources: Census and National Association of Homebuilders

Metro Median Sales Price of Single Family Homes Metro Region in Inflation Adjusted

$: 1969 - 1999

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Year

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Calendar Year

Me

dia

n S

ale

s P

rice

in

199

8 $

amount

UGBCreated

FunctionalPlan Approved

Monitoring Housing PricesMonitoring Housing Prices

Existing Single Family Home Existing Single Family Home Prices, RegionsPrices, Regions

Source: National Association of Homebuilders Source: National Association of Homebuilders

$50,000

$70,000

$90,000

$110,000

$130,000

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Med

ian

Exi

stin

g H

om

e P

rice

, 200

1$

United States

Northeast Region

Midw est Region

South Region

West Region

New Single Family Home Prices, New Single Family Home Prices, RegionsRegions

Source: Census New Residential Sales IndexSource: Census New Residential Sales Index

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Med

ian

New

Ho

me

Pri

ce, 2

001$

United States

Northeast Region

Midw est Region

South Region

West Region

House Price IndexHouse Price Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

ytd

9/20

02

Ind

ex V

alu

e

United States

South Atlantic Division

Maryland

Virginia

District of Columbia

Baltimore MSA

Washington MSA

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)

Existing Single Family Home Existing Single Family Home Prices, Maryland CountiesPrices, Maryland Counties

Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. and National Association of Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. and National Association of Homebuilders Homebuilders

$50,000

$70,000

$90,000

$110,000

$130,000

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Med

ian

Exi

stin

g H

om

e P

rice

, 200

1$

South Region

Maryland

Baltimore City

Anne Arundel County

Baltimore County

Calvert County

Carroll County

Cecil County

Charles County

Frederick County

Harford County

How ard County

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Queen Anne's County

St. Mary's County

Talbot County

Washington County

Monitoring Rents Monitoring Rents Table 1Share of Renter Households Paying Excess or Severe Cost Burdens, 1990Cleveland PMSA

Renter Income (as a % of HAMFI)0-30% 30-50% 50-80%

Excess Cost Burden (paying over 30% of income for housing)Entire metropolitan area 74% 70% 33%Central city only 73% 57% 16%Suburbs only 77% 81% 42%

Severe Cost Burden (paying over 50% of income for housing)Entire metropolitan area 58% 21% 3%Central city only 55% 10% 1%Suburbs only 66% 30% 4%

Source: 1990 Census as reported in the CHAS database, 1993.

Monitoring AffordabilityMonitoring Affordability

A. Share of Renter Households Paying Excess or Severe Cost BurdensBy Income, 1992 and 1996Cleveland PMSA

$1 to $9,999 $10,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999

1992, Share paying over:30% of income 71% 54% 21%50% of income 46% 10% 3%

1996, Share paying over:30% of income 72% 73% 28%50% of income 51% 21% 3%

Source: American Housing Survey for the Cleveland Metropolitan Area, 1992 and 1996

Note: Percentages are calculated excluding those paying 100% or more of incomefor housing.

B. HAMFI Income Limits for the Cleveland Metropolitan Area4 person family

Income of Families and Primary Individuals

Monitoring Housing SupplyMonitoring Housing Supply

Table 3Housing Supply MeasuresCleveland PMSA, 1992 and 1996

1992 1996 2000Fair Market Rent Levels (2 bedroom unit)* 480 510 619

Share of Units Renting for less than $500** 1992 19962 Bedroom Units--Metropolitan Area 65% 45%All Units-Cleveland 89% 75%All Units-Rest of Cuyahoga Co. 54% 33%

Median rents 1992 19962 Bedroom Units--Metropolitan Area 449$ 519$ All Units-Cleveland 343$ 402$ All Units-Rest of Cuyahoga Co. 486$ 567$

Sources: HUD User Web Site and American Housing Survey for the ClevelandMetropolitan Area, 1992 and 1996

*Prior to 1995, FMRs were calculated at the 45th percentile of the distribution.They are now calculated at the 40th percentile.

**Percentages are calculated excluding those paying no cash rent.

Monitoring Housing “Match”Monitoring Housing “Match”

Table 4Rental Housing MismatchCleveland PMSA

Income as a Share of the HAMFI Threshold30% or less 50% or less 80% or less

Entire metropolitan area 0.76 1.37 1.66Central city only 0.85 1.50 1.43Suburbs only 0.56 1.17 1.92

Measuring, Monitoring, and Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating Urban FormEvaluating Urban Form

(1) Street Design and (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems:Circulation Systems:

• Int_ConnectivityInt_Connectivity – ratio of the – ratio of the number of street intersections number of street intersections versus the sum of intersections versus the sum of intersections and cul-de-sacs (Criterion, 1999);and cul-de-sacs (Criterion, 1999);

Internal ConnectivityInternal Connectivity

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Int_

Con

nect

ivity

_Cla

ckm

as_O

R

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Int_

Co

nn

ecit

ivit

y_M

ult

no

mah

_OR

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Int_

Co

nn

ecti

vity

_Was

hin

gto

n_O

R

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Int_

Co

nn

ecti

vity

_Mo

ntg

om

ery_

MD

(1) Street Design and (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems Circulation Systems (Continued):(Continued):

• Ext_ConnectivityExt_Connectivity – median – median distance between Ingress/Egress distance between Ingress/Egress (access) points in feet (Criterion, (access) points in feet (Criterion, 1999); 1999);

(1) Street Design and Circulation (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued):Systems (Continued):

• Blocks_PeriBlocks_Peri – median value of perimeter – median value of perimeter of the blocks in a neighborhood; of the blocks in a neighborhood;

• BlocksBlocks – number of blocks divided by – number of blocks divided by number of housing units;number of housing units;

(1) Street Design and Circulation (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued):Systems (Continued):

• Length_Cul-De-Sac_ StLength_Cul-De-Sac_ St – median value – median value of length of cul-de-sac streets; of length of cul-de-sac streets;

• Rt_Cul-De-Sac_UnitsRt_Cul-De-Sac_Units – proportion of – proportion of housing units that are located by the housing units that are located by the Cul-De-Sacs in a neighborhood;Cul-De-Sacs in a neighborhood;

(2) Pedestrian Walkability (2) Pedestrian Walkability Characteristics:Characteristics:

• Ped_ComPed_Com – percentage of SFR units – percentage of SFR units within walkable distance of within walkable distance of commercial uses; commercial uses;

• Ped_TransitPed_Transit – percentage of SFR units – percentage of SFR units within walkable distance of transit within walkable distance of transit stations; stations;

(3) Land-use Characteristics:(3) Land-use Characteristics:

• Mix Mix – actual area of commercial, – actual area of commercial, industrial and public land uses in the industrial and public land uses in the neighborhood divided by number of neighborhood divided by number of housing units in a neighborhood; housing units in a neighborhood;

(3) Land-use Characteristics (3) Land-use Characteristics (Continued):(Continued):

• Lot_sizeLot_size – the median value of the area of – the median value of the area of lot size in square foot in a neighborhood;lot size in square foot in a neighborhood;

• Pop_Denisty – Pop_Denisty – the number ofthe number of households households divided by the area of the neighborhood;divided by the area of the neighborhood;

• SFRDU_DensitySFRDU_Density – SFR housing units – SFR housing units divided by the area of the neighborhood; divided by the area of the neighborhood;

(4) Accessibility (4) Accessibility Characteristics: Characteristics:

• ComdisComdis – distance in feet to the – distance in feet to the nearest commercial use;nearest commercial use;

• BusdisBusdis – distance in feet to the – distance in feet to the nearest bus station; nearest bus station;

• ParkdisParkdis – distance in feet to the – distance in feet to the nearest park; nearest park;

Urban Form Measurements (Unit of measurements)

Forest Glen

Orenco Station

Trend of changes Price Premium of Orenco

(1) Street Design and Circulation Systems:

Internal Connectivity_Beta 1.22 1.45Decreased until 1990, then

reversed+

External Street Connectivity (feet between access points) 569 1016

Increased all the time +

Length_Street (feet) 95 204 No change +

Block Perimeter (feet) 3365 830Increased until 1991, then

reversed+

Number of Blocks per Housing Unit 0.026 0.15

Decreased until 1992, then reversed

+

Median Length of Cul-De-Sacs (feet) 203 106

Decreased all the time +

(2) Density:

Lot Size (Square feet) 86753500

Decreased all the time -

Floor Space (Square feet) 1911 1648 Increased all the time -

Pop_Density (#person/acre) 2.02 2.62No change -

DU_Density (#Units/acre) 5.14 11.93

Increased all the time, but expedited after 1990

-

Urban Form Measurements (Unit of measurements)

Forest Glen

Orenco Station

Trend of changes Price Premium of Orenco

(3) Land Use Mix:

Entropy Index Including SFR area (1 = evenly distributed) 0.20 0.37

No change -

Entropy Index Excluding SFR area (1 = evenly distributed) 0.20 0.30

No change +

(4) Accessibility Characteristics:

Median Linear Distance to Nearest Commercial Use (feet) 3184 834


-

Median Distance to Nearest Park (feet) 1267 873

Decreased all the time +

(5) Pedestrian Walkability:

Percent of SFR Units within ¼-Mile Network Distance of Commercial Use 4 78


+

Percent of SFR Units within ¼-Mile Network Distance of Bus Stops 34 100


-

Better Information leads to Better Information leads to Better Land Management Better Land Management

DecisionsDecisions Infrastructure CapacityInfrastructure Capacity Housing Market IndicatorsHousing Market Indicators

Prices, Starts, VacancyPrices, Starts, Vacancy Urban FormUrban Form

Connectivity, Land Use, Density, Connectivity, Land Use, Density, AccessibilityAccessibility

Better Decisions leads to Better Better Decisions leads to Better Urban EnvironmentsUrban Environments

Land Market Monitoring: Beyond Land Supply Gerrit-Jan Knaap Professor and Director National Center...

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