LAND in the Climate Change era

1. What is on the horizon?

2. Why worry?

3. What does CC mean for land?

4. Land Dilemmas

5. Are there opportunities?

6. What to do?

7. What is next?

What is on the horizon–context Rapid urbanization, food insecurity, water stress,

climate change, oil and rising prices of other commodities, etc.

Globalized economies Greater vulnerability of the poor Low productivity Competing markets Technological and communications revolution More demanding political and governance

systems – in need of greater support Land tenure fragility +

Why worry?

Higher risks for the PoorSix Climate ThreatsTop 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each

Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture

Malawi Bangladesh PhilippinesAll low-lying Island States

All low-lying Island States

Sudan

Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe

India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali

MozambiqueMozambiqu

eMoldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi

Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan

Middle IncomeLow Income High Income

Source: World Bank staff.

For some, it will get worseLikely Impact of Sea Level Rise on Low Lying Lands:BANGLADESH

If sea level rises 1.5 m:Total population affected: 17 million (15%)Total land area affected: 22,000 km2 (16%)

Source: UNEP/GRID Geneva; University of Decca; JRO Munich; The World Bank; World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.

TodayTotal population: 112 millionTotal land area: 134,000 km2

LAND in the Climate Change era

Have we done our homework in securing tenure, access to and the best use of land? Pending issues of equity and distribution:

limited access seems to be perpetuated in some regions of the world (are markets functioning up to their potential?)

Pending issues of insecure rights, land grabbing and conflict over resources: weak enforcement and governance structures

Pending issues of low productivity and inefficiencies: agriculture productivity and natural resource allocation

Pending issues of the natural resource base: land degradation (loss of soil fertility, erosion, etc.), deforestation, water-land missing linkages.

In addition……..

Mega-trends Mega-dilemmas Mega-challenges Mega-uncertainties Mega-impacts…and we need MEGA-RESPONSES

What does it mean for Land?

Mega-dilemmas, Mega-

challenges,uncertainties,impacts Mega-opportunities for:

Land Tenure Land as Natural Resource Land as Productive Asset Land Institutions

What does this mean for LAND TENURE

Increased vulnerability and greater exposure to climate risks

Impacts on traditional tenure arrangements

Higher loss of assets (natural, physical, financial)

Higher pressure and insecurity “Global land grab”?

What does this mean for LAND as a Natural Resource

Decreased sustainable use and resource management

Declined adaptive capacity - due to external factors

Physical impacts Scarcity Deforestation? Disrupted systems

What does this mean for LAND INSTITUTIONS

Obsolete systems in need to adapt to new challenges (e.g. the divorce between land rights and forestry rights - who will pay the bill?)

Past gains on land rights limited by non-enforceability and now at higher risk

Recognition yes, but followed by on-the-ground enforcement

The end of the “silo” syndrome: work cross sectoraly

Confronted with some of the mega dilemmas- Greater need to develop new capacities

Greater inclusion- top down approaches are not an option

Partner for development: collective action- the role of civil society.

What does this mean for LAND as a NR and productive asset

1. Demand side2. Supply side

Demand side:

- Productive Demand: new demand for land in developing countries to cultivate raw materials and agrofuel/biofuel

- Demand for Conservation: reserves/ENV services/carbon markets

- Demand for new settlements (public lands): livestock, displacement, population growth, growing demand for food, etc.

- Demand for urbanization: (public or private)

Supply side: Competing needs for energy and food

security Increased competition for cropland,

pastureland and marginal lands - exacerbates the old pressure over land….

Land degradation (soil erosion, etc) Limited conversion and diversification Limited access to water, research and technology

High prices Lack of information

LAND Dilemmas in…..

1. Mitigation2. Adaptation

Land in the CC era: Mitigation

1. Alternative sources of energy and fuel;

Food for cars or food for people? (more land?)

Expansion and displacement - unintended result? (cattle ranching, others?)

Perverse incentives: adoption of biofuels may increase deforestation and demand for new land?

Fragile tenure plus new land disputes

Public lands –their role?

Land in the CC era: Mitigation

2. Greater conservation and better resource allocation

ENV services, re-forestation and afforestation -smallholders

Deforestation avoidance: price increase for agricultural lands (deforestation accounts for 20% of emissions)

More occupation of private and public holdings (old and new frontiers)

Vulnerable tenure arrangements and potential for increased land conflicts.

Land in the CC era: Mitigation3. Indigenous Peoples Livelihoods

Threats to IPs go beyond physical effects (cultural, moral, etc.) Could other mitigation strategies hurt indigenous populations? How to enhance IPs access to resources to cope with changes?

4. Carbon Markets Making it available for the small producer Clear land rights and access to information Support diversification and livelihood strengthening

5. Disaster and Risk Management Risk reduction is key to mitigate and adapt Increased disaster trend Impacts on tenure and on assets

Land and Adaptation

Country-specific It is a short and long term issue - for

now and the future Development is the best adaptation

and resilience strengthener It is required from all (large and

small) in all three worlds (urbanized, ag-based and transitional)

Land in the CC era: Adaptation

Rising food prices (e.g. 181% increase in wheat prices-36 months and 83% overall global)

Rising land prices! Floods and droughts Higher production costs (fertilizer and other

inputs) Slow and inefficient technology adoption How to bear osts of adaptation…..(ODA 4%)

So many threats, so where are the opportunities?

Mitigation-adaptation synergies (low income countries on land, forestry, NRM)

Good adaptation is cost-effective Access to new financing Reducing emissions from deforestation and

degradation (REDD) Adapting: a better way to cope with many of the

farming risks The more we mitigate, the less to adapt Second-generation bio-fuels can avoid land use change

and offer greater ENV and social benefits Secure and enforceable land rights Increased productivity Stronger land institutions

What to do about it?

Comprehensive approach

Responsibly and realistically address the trilogy of energy security, climate change and food security. They all have to do with land tenure, land rights and land management.

Land, water and forestry programs. Land tenure programs - beyond titling

and beyond mapping- Research on CC socioeconomic impacts

on land and the natural resource base Set indicators and monitor such impacts

What to do?

Incentives for good land management (such as payments for biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration, community ownership and land tenure security) are necessary, but not sufficient. Should be made accessible to the poor.

Have a new look at community-based forestry.

In less endowed areas….

Invest in R&D for drought tolerance, natural resource management, herding (conditions pertinent for the left behind areas)

Agro-forestry Conservation farming Small scale irrigation and water

harvesting and management Appropriate infrastructure Adapted financial services Risk management instruments

and….bottom line:

Agriculture environmental footprint needs to be substantially reduced

Farming systems to become more CC resilient

Clearer and enforceable land use and property rights (common and individual)

Cleaner and more accessible technologies Greater balance between conservation and

production Forget BAU ~ it is a different era~

But we also need the right policy mix…and the right balance…

Mitigation and Adaptation are crucial and they complement each other’s area of action +mitigation less adaptation needed

Global collective action, global negotiations, and local awareness, local impacts and local actions are needed.

Trade-offs between short-term and long-term decisions/priorities.

What is Next?

Action Make small holders and IPs more resilient and less

vulnerable to CC risks and impacts Adapting land institutions to the size of the

challenge- working across sectors Enhance productivity potential- address food

issues beyond short-term crisis Incentives for investments Land is key for achieving MDG1: making the

linkages and acting on them Global support/local policies/local investments Increase ODA for Agriculture and Forestry