l9 Dynamics 4

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

1/51

+

-

ESD.36J System & Project Management

Dynamics of Project Performance

System Dynamics and Project Management

Class Four (10/2/03)

Copyright 2003James M. Lyneis

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

2/51

+

-Topics

Review Practice for 10/3

Staff and schedule dynamics

Managing the Dynamics & Summary

Homework 4

Copyright 200310/02/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 2

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

3/51

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

4/51

+

-

Graph for Quality

1

0.85

0.7

0.55

0.40 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Quality : Class3 Step1 FractionQuality : Class2 Step2 Fraction


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

5/51

-

+Graph for Effect of Prior Work Quality on Quality

1

0.85

0.7

0.55

0.40 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Effect of Prior Work Quality on Quality : Class3 Step1 DimensionlessEffect of Prior Work Quality on Quality : Class2 Step2 Dimensionless


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

6/51

+

-

Quality1 Fraction

100 Task

0.75 Fraction75 Task

0.5 Fraction50 Task

0.25 Fraction25 Task

0 Fraction0 Task

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60Time (Month)

Average Work Quality : Class3 Step1 FractionQuality : Class3 Step1 FractionUndiscovered Rework : Class3 Step1 TaskWork Done : Class3 Step1 Task


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

7/51

-

+ Graph for Work Done100

75

50

25

0

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60Time (Month)

Work Done : Class3 Step1 TaskWork Done : Class2 Step2 Task


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

8/51

+

-

With short time to discover rework,

quality is better ...Graph for Quality

1

0.85

0.7

0.55

0.40 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Quality : Class3 Step1 FractionQuality : Class3 Step1 Short TDRW Fraction


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

9/51

+

- because undiscovered rework is lower

Graph for Undiscovered Rework20

15

10

5

00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Undiscovered Rework : Class3 Step1 TaskUndiscovered Rework : Class3 Step1 Short TDRW Task


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

10/51

+

-

Less work needs to be done and

the project finishes soonerGraph for Cumulative Work Done

200

150

100

50

00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Cumulative Work Done : Class3 Step1 TasksCumulative Work Done : Class3 Step1 Short TDRW Tasks


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

11/51

+

-

Lesson: Its the undiscovered rework!

Copyright 2003 10/02/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 11

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

12/51

+

-Topics




Homework 4


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

13/51

+

- Staff and Schedule DynamicsSchedule pressure

Adding staffSlipping schedule


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

14/51

+

-

Schedule Pressure


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

15/51

+

- Schedule PressureHow might management respond when

a project falls behind schedule?


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

16/51

+

- Schedule Pressure How might management respond when

a project falls behind schedule? Pressure team to work faster Work longer hours/overtime


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

17/51

+

- Schedule Pressure How might management respond when

a project falls behind schedule? Pressure team to work faster Work longer hours/overtime

Downsides - Haste makes waste Fatigue adds to mistakes (and may reduceproductivity)


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

18/51

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

19/51

+

-

Staff Level

Scheduled

Date

Effect ofSchedule

Table for Effectof Schedule

Pressure on PDY

Date Basedon Progress

AnticipatedSchedule

PerceivedReal

Date

Normal

InitialScheduled

Productivity

Completion

Pressure onProductivity

IndicatedCompletion

Overrun

Completion

Productivity

Estimated Cost to Complete

Completion

Average Productivity


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

20/51

+

-Expected completion date:

When will the project finish, given current

time, estimated person-years remaining, andstaff?

Estimated person-years remaining = work to

do divided by productivity (person-months) Average Productivity = work believed to be

done divided by cumulative effort expended

(tasks/person-month)


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

21/51

+

- Effect of Schedule Pressure ... On Productivity On Quality

p - Table for Effect of Schedule Pressur kup - Table for Effect of Schedule Pres

2 1

0 0-0.2

01 0 1

Anticipated Schedule Overrun (fraction)

The tables are the inverse of each other


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

22/51

+

- Example Effect of Schedule Pressure on Productivity =

Sensitivity for Effect of Schedule Pressure onProductivity * Table for Effect of SchedulePressure on Productivity + (1 - Sensitivity for

Effect of Schedule Pressure on Productivity)


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

23/51

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

24/51

+

-Schedule Pressure Simulations

If the effect of schedule pressure on quality is

the exact opposite of that on productivity,schedule pressure in this simple modelcauses the project to finish somewhat later and cost more (Class3 Step2 vs Step1).

However, if the quality effect is stronger thanthe productivity effect (Class3 Step2 PDY),then schedule pressure causes a significant

delay in finishing.


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

25/51

-

+Graph for Cumulative Work Done

400

300

200

100

00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Cumulative Work Done : Class3 Step1 TasksCumulative Work Done : Class3 Step2 TasksCumulative Work Done : Class3 Step2 PDY Tasks


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

26/51

+

-

Lesson: Monitoring/creating the wrong pressures can be counterproductive.


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

27/51

+

-

Staffing


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

28/51

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

29/51

+

- Adding Staff Assumptions

hiring/transfer in delays equal 4 months,transfer out 1 month

24 months are required to gain fullexperience

inexperienced staff work at 50%productivity and quality of experienced staff

there is no limit on staff available


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

30/51

+

-

Changing Schedule (not included in Class4.mdl)


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

31/51

+

-Summary of Model to Date

Model has 3 effects on P & Q : Quality on quality Schedule pressure Experience

Decisions to increase or reduce staffing Decisions to change scheduledcompletion date (to be added later)


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

32/51

+

-Topics




Homework 4


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

33/51

+

-

Now that we understand what

causes this behavior ...ProjectStaffing

Typical

Plan

... what canwe do aboutit?

Time Copyright 200310/02/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 33

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

34/51

+ How does it get started?

- TimeRemaining

Skill &Experience

Staff

Morale Organisational Turnover HiringSize

ChangesOvertime

Schedule StaffingScheduled

CompletionOut-of-Sequence

Pressure Equivalent Requested

Productivity Quality Staff onTime Project

Work HoursExpendedProgressExpected to Date ExpectedWork

Completion AvailabilityWork ToBe Done Really Done Hours at

Time of Prerequisites Added CompletionWork Obsoleted

Known Undiscovered WorkWork Qualityto Date Rework ReworkRework

Discovery

Perceived

Progress Copyright 200310/02/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 34

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

35/51

How does it get started? +

-

Dynamics are initiated by (1) an infeasible

initial plan, or (2)changes adding scope

UndiscoveredReworkRework

WorkReally DoneTo Be Done

People

Customer

Changes

and obsoleting completed work ...

ScopeGrowth

Known

WorkProgress

Rework

Productivity Quality

Discovery


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

36/51

+ What makes it worse?- TimeRemaining

Skill &Experience

StaffMorale Organisational Turnover Hiring

SizeChanges

OvertimeSchedule Staffing

Scheduled

CompletionOut-of-Sequence

Pressure Equivalent Requested

Productivity Quality Staff onTime Project

Work HoursExpendedProgressExpected to Date ExpectedWork

Completion AvailabilityWork ToBe Done Really Done Hours at

Time of Prerequisites Added CompletionWork Obsoleted

Known Undiscovered WorkWork Qualityto Date Rework ReworkRework

Discovery

Perceived

Progress Copyright 200310/02/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 36

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

37/51

What makes it worse? +

-Corrective actions to get the

project back on track...

Di

ApparentProgress

CustomerChanges Schedule

Acceleration

Overtime

Hiring

ScopeGrowth

UndiscoveredRework

KnownRework

Work

Really Done

Work

To Be Done

Progress

Rework

scovery

People Productivity Quality


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

38/51

+

-What makes it worse?

create vicious circles that undercut intended

ity

ApparentProgress

CustomerChanges

Acceleration

Work, WorksiteCongestion,Coordination

Problems,

Employee Skill

Fatigue,Burnout

Overtime

Hiring

ScopeGrowth

effects

UndiscoveredRework

KnownRework

WorkReally Done

WorkTo Be Done

Progress

ReworkDiscovery

People Productiv Quality

Schedule

Out-of-Sequence

Morale Problems

Average

and Quality


8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

39/51

Remember -+

-

PRODUCTIVITY = NORMALPRODUCTIVITY * EFFECT OF STAFFEXPERIENCE * EFFECT OF QUALITY OFPRIOR WORK* ...

Dimensions: Productivity -- Tasks/Month/Person Normal Productivity -- Tasks/Month/Person Effects -- Dimensionless


+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

40/51

+

-The effects are laws of nature ...

2 2

E f f e c

t o

f S t a f f E x p e r

i e n c e

0 00 5 10 0 .5 1

Years Experience Quality of Prior Work

What determines how the projectmoves up and down the curves?

E f f e c

t o

f Q u a l i

t y o

f

P r i o r

W o r

k1 1

10/02/03 - ESD.36J SPM Copyright 2003James M. Lyneis 40

+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

41/51

+

-

2003

Work Qualityto Date

ScheduledCompletion

Time

ExpectedCompletion

Time Availability

of Prerequisites

Progress

Pressure

Out-of-SequenceWork

Morale

ExpectedHours at

Completion

Hours

to Date

Skill &Experience

Hiring

Equivalent

Staff onProject

StaffingRequested

Turnover Organisational

Changes

Staff

Quality

Added

WorkWork

Overtime

TimeRemaining

Be Done

Management Actions !

Copyright

Perceived

Schedule

ExpendedProgress

ReworkDiscovery

Size

Productivity

Obsoleted

Work To

UndiscoveredRework

KnownRework

WorkReally Done

10/02/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 41

+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

42/51

+

-Major Themes to Date

Viewpoint on causes of dynamic

behavior, and an introduction to thetheory and tools to understand thatbehavior

Insights into the dynamics of complexprojects

One model of the causes of thosedynamics


+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

43/51

+

- Are There Alternative Models?

More P & Q effects, etc.

Variations on the basic rework cycle Multi-project and organizational models


+ More Productivity and Quality

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

44/51

+

-

More Productivity and Quality

Effects:Model has 3 effects on P & Q :

Quality on quality

Schedule pressureExperience

What additional affects could be included?

Morale Organizational SizeOvertime ChangesSequence Availability of supplier

Other types of experience informationand materialsSkills match to needs...


+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

45/51

-

Other simplifications?

Task dependence/sequence is not representedexplicitly -- with enough staff, could finish theproject in a week

Only one phase of work explicitly represented Suppliers are not represented Interactions with other projects are not

represented

These are treated endogenously or exogenouslyin more comprehensive models, and will bediscussed in the remaining sessions.


+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

46/51

-When is the project finished?

In the current model, keep working until

all work is completed correctly. In othersituations, schedule may be morecritical and therefore the project might:

reduce scope to meet schedule ship with errors


+ Variations on the Basic Rework

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

47/51

-

Variations on the Basic Rework

Cycle Abdel-Hamid software development

model Ford-Sterman product developmentmodel

(see SD Bibliography on s e rver )


+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

48/51

-Broader Dynamics

Multi-project and organizational

dynamics: implementation of new tools and processes competition between concurrent and futureprojects for resources

(We will discuss later in the term, but seeRepenning and Sterman websites)

Copyright


+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

49/51

-Does the basic model apply to ...

Product development vs. one-of-a-

kind construction projects? ... Hardware vs. software?

Consumer products vs. military?

Copyright


+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

50/51

-Topics



Managing the Dynamics & Summary Homework 4

Copyright


+

8/13/2019 l9 Dynamics 4

51/51

-Brooks Law

"Adding manpower to a late software

project makes it later." Brooks,Frederick P. Jr. The Mythical Man-Month. Reading, MA, Addison Wesley,1995.

Copyright


l9 Dynamics 4

Documents

Transcript of l9 Dynamics 4