Natural Capitalism Solutions

F I N D I N G I O W A ‘ S W A Y

A Presentation by L. Hunter Lovins © NCS 2012

Global Drivers of Change

•  Carbon constrained world

•  Volatile energy prices

•  Vulnerabilities

•  The sustainability imperative

•  Loss of ecosystem services

•  Chindia

•  Economic instability

•  Water •  Food

Global Biodiversity Outlook Three - GBO-3

If we insist on ruining the planet, we have to stop claiming we’re

a “superior species”.

New Rule

“Unless world leaders take immediate and coordinated action, modern industry will lock the world into a calamitous temperature rise of up to six degrees C.

In such a world, demand for energy, food, and water will overwhelm the planet”

Nov 2011 study from IEA April 2012 study from OECD

Last year, a new record: 14 weather related disasters with damages over $1 billion.

Hot enough for you? Iowa is experiencing first hand why America’s decade of ignoring climate science is a mistake.

Unless Iowa acts to capture the green economy, it faces a grim prospect, both from the weather and from an economy strangled by its fossil fuel past.

Iowa Ground Central 60% of the state is in extreme drought.

80% of soil is moisture-deficient.

Bushel of corn has risen from $5.50 to $8.

Climate Change Impacts U.S. corn production is down 13%.

USDA predicts 3-10 % increase in all food prices.

Will cost $600 more for the same food purchased this year, for a family of four.

Commodity price increases

Credit Suisse estimates that commodity prices will increase 5% - 20% in the second half of 2012

Every 1¢ rise in the price of gasoline = $1billion lost in household purchasing power

What will this do to your business?

Food and Water Scarcity 1/3 of the world's cropland is losing its productivity because it is losing its topsoil

More than 33 countries face social unrest due to record high food prices.

A single fracking well uses up to 5 million gallons of water

Iowa Ground Central Severe precipitation events have increased 32% since 1960’s.

A 20% increase in precipitation increases soil erosion by 40%, if not properly managed.

Iowa Ground Central 2008 flood, the City of Cedar Rapids had to pump raw sewage into Cedar River.

Cedar Rapids was not the only city forced to close wastewater operations.

Agriculture uses 70% of world water withdrawals

Competition for water resources is increasing

Agriculture = Water Intensive

Agriculture = Polluting • According to the EPA, agricultural practices are responsible for 70% of all pollution in U.S. rivers and streams.

• In the US, 40% of rivers, lakes, and coastal waters are so contaminated that they are unfit for humans to fish in, swim in, or drink.

In 1940 we produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil fuel energy we used.

Now it takes 10 calories of fossil-fuel energy to produce a single calorie of modern supermarket food

Agriculture = Energy Intensive

2012 had over 2,000 record-shattering heat events

Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature

Feb 2012 the UN released Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A future worth choosing

The 22-member panel said a new blueprint for growth and low-carbon prosperity must be "mainstreamed" into economic policy as quickly as possible

By 2030 the planet will need at least 50% more food, 45% more energy and 30% more water.

Time to reconsider?

It’s NOT about polar bears

The science is uncertain

The science does not matter

Let’s assume that the climate sceptics are right

Don’t go to the casino on those odds

If all that you care about is maximizing profit, you will do exactly what you would do if you were scared to death about climate

$30 – 40 million available below the line savings per company

McKinsey Curve

The Carbon Disclosure Project Institutional investors - $78 trillion assets

Pushing FTSE top 500 companies to disclose “investment-related” GHG emissions

6% of leading companies deselect suppliers who fail to manage carbon, 56% commit to do so in the future

6,300 computers and monitors in sleep or standby mode when not in use (24/7).

Leave machines on one evening a week for updates and turn them off at the end of the work day: $700,000.

US companies waste $2.8 billion a year on 108 million unused PCs. In 2009, these unused PCs will emit 20 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions – the impact of 4 million cars.

PC power costs are the largest single factor of IT energy costs and can account for a quarter of the costs in a modern office building.

“Ford Saves One Million Dollars... By Shutting Off Computers”

Fast Company, 23 March 2010

Turning off one computer every night for a year saves $34 If 20 computers are left on in the evening and over the weekend, the savings grow to $526 a year

Most of this lighting was either unnecessary or redundant. Work areas had task lighting at the employee level.

Annual savings for shutting off the lights... $650,000.

7M square feet DC with 500 Watt roof lights evenly spaced every 10 feet. Half the floor space was racks with boxes.

Economic Realities: Saving energy strengthens the entire economy

Green buildings improve labor productivity and worker health

Improving indoor air quality could save U.S. businesses:

•  $58 billion in avoided sick time each year,

•  Another $200 billion earned in increased worker performance.

Comparative Costs in Large Office Buildings Data from Building Owners and Managers Association: Electric Power research Institute, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1991

Carbon War Room

Partnership between Lockheed Martin, Energi,

Barclays, and Ygrene to retrofit commercial real estate.

Will return $4 million in tax revenues for every $1 million $10 million in economic activity generated and 60 jobs created.

The $650 million program will bring its first two cities: Sacramento and Miami 40,000 jobs created, $1 billion in tax benefits, and at least $10 billion in increased economic output

Will scale across US, as well as China.

Renewable Generation

Environment Iowa has shown how the state, now 85% dependent on coal energy imported from out of town could provide 100% of its needs from renewable Iowa power, keeping jobs and money here.

Solar deployment – policy matters California receives 70% more sunlight for producing solar energy than Germany.

But Germany installs 28 times more solar electric capacity every year

Will be 100% renewable by 2050

Deutsche Bank Study: FiTs gave Germany the lead in renewable energy production.

In first 4 years FiTs created 300,000 new jobs

FITs cut the unit cost of solar panels 30 percent in 2009 enough that they could pay for themselves within five to seven years, and reach grid parity (costing the same as grid electricity) by 2013.

The Economics of Feed-in Tariffs

FiTs drove German economic regeneration, enabling Germany to pay its own citizens to produce, install and maintain their own renewable energy systems, instead of buying imported fossil fuels. The program cost of €2 - 3 per month ($50 to customers’ electricity bills each year) to electricity bills in Germany (a total of €8.6 billion.)

Deutsche Bank: The savings created by FiTs exceeded total cost of payments made by households.

Had customers bought electricity from conventional generation and paid the costs of fossil fuel generation Germans would have paid over €9.4 billion.

Iowa Leading the Way

Iowa is a National Leader in Renewable Energy

• 20% of energy from sun, wind, and biofuels • 200 wind companies with 7,000 full-time jobs

The Green Economy Unleashed • By 2020: • Create 20,000 new jobs • Save consumers $1 billion annually

Renewable Benefits

Iowa’s renewable resources could provide 17 times more energy than the state needs

It would help the average Iowa family save $400

It would create at least 3,000 new jobs each year!

+

+$

+ Jobs

Since 2006 jobs in renewables and environment have grown 56.8% vs Internet: 29.8%

California's “green economy" grew 3X as fast as traditional economy between 2008 and 2009 – 174,000 employed in green economy – 26% are manufacturing jobs vs 9% in total economy.

In US green jobs grew 9.1% 1998 – 2007, 2 ½ X faster than all job growth.

Jobs Growth

Early stage companies are the economic future of the US.

Kauffman research shows that startups are responsible for:

•  Almost all net job growth in the U.S. economy for all but 7 years – from 1977 to now

•  The top 1% of highest growth startups generate almost 10% of all new jobs

Sonoma County Energy Independence Program

8.4% increase in construction-related jobs in Sonoma County between January, 2009 and September, 2009

3.0% job decline in Napa County

July-August 2009: $5.6 million in SCEIP projects 500 new construction jobs reported

Dardesheim, Germany - 100% renewable

Wildpoldsried produces 321% more energy than it uses; makes $5.7 million each year

SCE: 250 MW plant on roofs around So California $875 million to complete (comparable coal plant ~$800 million)

1 MW/ week = 15.6 GW In 2010 – 21 GW 2011

Walmart

Committed to be 100% renewably powered

Hydrokinetic Canal Turbines

Wind is the 2nd fastest growing energy supply technology in the world: 37 GW in 2009, 32 GW 2010 Now 237 GW, 40 GW new 2011 Costs less than coal in good sites

And check out China

China has replaced the United States as the world's leading consumer of most basic commodities, like oil, grain, coal, and steel.

•  If China’s economy grows at its prior rate •  If it uses resources as inefficiently as the U.S. •  By 2030 China will need 99 million barrels of oil a day.

The world currently produces 80+ million barrels per day and may never produce more.

China Renewable Investments •  China’s State Administration of

Energy (SAE), is creating a new energy blueprint

•  Total investments for renewable energy by 2020 – $911 billion for efficiency and

renewables – 10.6b million new jobs – Generate several trillion dollars in new GDP

China accounted for half of the worlds production in solar energy.

Producing panels as low as $1.04 a watt.

Rise of Solar in China

China’s efforts to dominate renewable energy technologies raise the prospect that the West may someday trade its dependence on oil from the Mideast for a reliance on solar panels, wind turbines and other gear manufactured in China.

China - 1 MW grid interconnected

Rizhao, China City of 3 million – 99% use solar hot water

5,000 manufacturers of simple solar water heaters

Now looking at export

Baoding, China Mayor Yu Quin:

“Polluting first and cleaning up later is very expensive. So we chose renewable energy to replace traditional industry.”

200 renewable energy companies replace cars and textiles

R. James Woolsey’s solar powered plug-in-hybrid has a bumper sticker reading:

“Osama bin Ladin hates my car.”

Fragile supply lines – for every 24 convoys a marine comes home in a body bag

Military uses 10.6 million gallons/day

Largest fuel user in the world

Military driving renewable deployment

Great Green Fleet Navy Secretary Ray Mabus: "We simply have to figure out a way to get American-made, home-grown fuel that is stably priced, that is competitive with oil,"

MH-60 chopper flying on 50-50 algae/ grease biofuel and petroleum fuel

Deploy a biofuel-burning carrier group by 2016 and require the Department of the Navy to get half of its energy from alternative sources by 2020.

USS Ford frigate used 25,000 gallons to sail 12,000 miles from Everett Wash to San Diego – no difference in performance

Solyazyme and Dynamic Fuels

F-18 Green Hornet flying on Sustainable Fuels’ oil seed fuel/ jet fuel mix – 60 – 75 million barrels of jet fuel/ year

European/Middle East Smartgrid Power equal to the total present usage of the EUMENA region power could be generated covering less than 0.3% of the Sahara Desert with CSP plants. DESERTEC Foundation proposes a supergrid from Iceland to Arabian peninsula, from Baltic to west coast of Africa, in which offshore

wind and wave farms, photovoltaic sites, tidal stream generators, biomass, geothermal and hydroelectric stations would unite with desert CSP arrays to meet the region's actual daily and hourly demands over an HVDC network

RE < C

“By the way, in 2011, GE's wind turbines achieved RE less than C for the first time. It really happened. Now we're designing super efficient and flexible combined

cycle gas turbines that will compliment renewable intermittency, while we work on energy storage

technologies. Solar is next...”

Sustainability is happening

1

Ray Anderson

What is the business case for ending life on earth?

Interface "Mission Zero"Metrics -Net GHG emissions down 82% in absolute tonage-

Fossil fuel usage is down 60%- Water usage is down 75%-

Renewables and recycled materials up 25%-Renewable energy is up 27%-

Diverted 74,000 tons of used carpet from landfills- Goal: 0 impact, 0 footprint - ½ way to goal today.

Anticipate will make goal in 2020. Best thing for business: Costs down $4.5M

Sales increased by 2/3 Profits up 2X-

Paid for all costs for transformation of Interface.

“Sustainability isn’t the burden on bottom lines that many executives believe it to be. It can lower your costs and increase your revenues. That’s why sustainability should be a touchstone for all innovation.

In the future, only companies that make sustainability a goal will achieve competitive advantage. That means rethinking business models as well as products, technologies and processes.”

Why Sustainability is Now the Key Driver of Innovation

Harvard Business Review

Sustainability pays

Companies in the Dow Jones sustainability Index outperform the general market

Goldman Sachs report July 2007: Companies that are leaders in environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies outperform competitors in stock performance—by an average of 25%.

72% of the companies on the DJSI outperformed industry peers

Paul Polman

Refusal to report quarterly The ultimate cost of short-termism was the financial crisis of 2008-9. 'Too many investors have become short-term gamblers: the more fluctuations in share price they can engineer, the better it is for them. It is not good for the companies or for society, but it is influencing the way firms are being run, all the same.... To drag the world back to sanity, we need to know why we are here. The answer is: for consumers, not shareholders. If we are in synch with consumer needs and the environment in which we operate, and take responsibility for society as well as for our employees, then the shareholder will also be rewarded'

Cut environmental impacts in half by 2020,

Source 100% of agricultural materials sustainably, and

Help more than 1billion people improve their health and well-being.

Unilever’s Sustainable Living Plan:

•  Build healthy topsoil •  Minimize use of fossil fuels •  Plant crops suitable to

local climate •  Use a whole systems

approach to farm management

Sustainable Agriculture

#1 Locally sourced meats and seafood #2 Locally grown produce #4 Hyper-local sourcing #5 Sustainability #8 Locally produced wine and beer #12 Farm/estate-branded ingredients

Top Menu Trends of 2012 Survey by The National Restaurant Association

Three indexes identified the most resilient, most innovative and best positioned companies to gain competitive advantage in the new low-carbon economy

Ranking the top 350 US companies, with a combined market cap of $350 trillion, on their climate innovation and carbon management programmes, shows a positive correlation between the financial performance of companies and their ability to successfully implement disruptive market innovations related to climate change.

Companies that lead in climate-related innovation give higher financial performance (five-year return on equity)

Carbon Innovators Lead

In nature carbon is not the world’s greatest

poison

Calera Calera is piloting making cement in the same way that coral reefs make limestone: CO2 and seawater.

Carbon negative process.

Vinod Khosla is a lead investor

Americans buy more than 9 billion bottles of water a year

Method is making its bottles out of recycled plastic –

25% of it harvested from the oceans

Synthetic biology could create buildings that inhale carbon dioxide, and control temperature without air conditioning –

Dr Rachel Armstrong, senior TED Fellow, Director of Avatar

I am a professor of a discipline that did not exist when I went to college

Change is hard

Margaret Mead said the only person who likes change is a wet baby

The best way to predict the future is to invent it

His goal:

To make the world work for 100% of humanity, in the shortest possible time, through spontaneous cooperation without ecological offense or disadvantage of anyone.”

The second mouse gets the cheese

The rule of no realm is mine but all worthy things that are in peril as the world now stands, those are my care. And for my part I shall not wholly fail if anything passes through this night

that can still grow fair and bear fruit and flower again in the days to come. For I too am a steward, did you not know?

In the end, it was two rather ordinary, playful, unassuming hobbits who undertook to save the world. Despite their fears, they took the future of the world on

their shoulders, and all the wizards and kings and warriors could only play a supportive role.

Real leadership is extraordinary courage by ordinary people

www.natcapsolutions.org

Natural Capitalism Solutions L O N G M O N T, C O L O R A D O

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500,000 refugees 18 million at risk of starvation

Shai Agassi

Better Place – renewable electric cars

DONG energy and Better Place $12,000 for a family-sized all-electric sedan: Renault Fluence EV. Drive as much as you want. Pay $300/ month (less if you drive fewer miles). Emit no CO2 or other pollutants. And help the world break its addiction to oil

Better Place has ordered 100,000 cars from Renault. Agassi plans to order another 100,000 cars in the first half of 2012.

Agassi has agreements with governments to roll out Better Place in northern California, in the urban regions of Australia and in Hawaii. France, too, has made a major commitment to electric vehicles, one reason why Renault says it will launch four electric car models in the next several years.

Creating the Madrone Project

Digital sustainability education, curated for digital media and the modern attention span

A rigorous, modular curriculum designed by your passion

Math is the low hanging fruit of online education

Linear chains of knowledge

Constant over time

Food

 Chain  of  Top

ics  

Basic  

Advanced  

Hundreds of Topics for ‘Micro-Lesson’ Nodes – 12-15 min

case studies core principles / foundations

advanced / research / just plain interesting

Sustainable  Ci8es  

Sustainable  Well  Being  Human  microbiome  and  virome  Buildiing  Design  and  Human  Health  Carbon  Nega8ve  Blgs  and  Houses  Made  of  Meat  RooBop  Farming  RooBop  Biodiversity  Systems  Theory  Principles  Scaling  Theory  of  Sustainable  Ci8es  Climate  Capitalism  Principles  Natural  Capitalism  Principles  Efficiency  Principles  Redesigning  Manufacturing  Principles  Complexity  Theory  Principles  Network  Theory  Principles  Art  and  Innova8on  Emergence  in  Complex  Systems  Economic  Complexity  and  Sustainable  Growth  Biomimicry  Principles  Math  Lessons  for  Locavores  What  is  Sustainability  Sustainable  Building  Design  Principles  Global  Homogeniza8on  Jevons  Efficiency  Paradox  Art  and  Urban  Renewal  the  Crea8ve  Class  New  Metrics  for  Sustainable  Economies  Mul8Family  Housing  Crea8ve  Green  Mobility  Crowd  Sharing  

Food

 Web

 of  Top

ics  

Online Sustainability Education is a Different Beast (interdisciplinary, dynamic, ecology of knowledge)

Basic  

Advanced  

Coral  reefs  

bleaching  

Climate  Change  

Calera  –  cement  from  CO2  

2  degrees  from  coral  reefs  Oceans  

Other  Tracks  

Large  Node  =  Many  Links  Network Structure of Classes Stimulates Cross-disciplinary Thinking

Join the conversation online:

facebook.com/madroneproject

Twitter.com/madroneproject

What do you want to know? What do you want to study?

In 1940 we produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil fuel energy we used.

Now it takes 10 calories of fossil-fuel energy to produce a single calorie of modern supermarket food

Sustainable Agriculture

The production, manufacture, and transport of synthetic fertilizers is the largest agricultural energy use

Representing on average 38%, but up to as high as 50% of energy use

UnSustainable Agriculture

The overall resource efficiency of our farming operations has decreased even while we have produced more food.

What would a sustainable agriculture system look like?

Sustainable Agriculture

•  Build healthy topsoil •  Minimize use of fossil fuels •  Plant crops suitable to

local climate •  Use a whole systems

approach to farm management

Sustainable Agriculture

Economic Recovery

"Agriculture is the foundation on which recovery from the global recession and financial and food price crisis will be built, especially for developing countries, which derive much of their income from agricultural production,”

– Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture

In Pursuit of Wealth

"Agriculture ... is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth … and happiness.” -Thomas Jefferson to George Washington

“To plant a garden is to believe in Tomorrow”