KTI corridor commercialization - UN ESCAP Corridor... · Definition of volumes and values allocated...

methodologic approaches, inputs and outputs

KTI corridor commercialization

Enhancing Freight Flows and Promoting Services

Ms. Ekaterina Kozyreva

[email protected]

KTI Inception meeting | April 2019 | Tehran

Picture source: Wikimedia Common

KTI Inception meeting | April 2019 | Tehran 1

CONTENTS

1. Enhancing freight flows over KTI rail corridor.

2. Marketing plan for KTI rail corridor

1.1. Trade and freight flows analysis.

1.2. Linkages with other freight corridors, ports and terminals.

1.3. Tariffs.

1.4. Freight flows forecast.

1.5. Ways to augment freight flows

1.6. General deliverables.

2.1. Marketing plan background.

2.2. Marketing segments and objectives.

2.3. Marketing plan implementation, resources and audit.



1. Enhancing freight flows over KTI rail corridor


1.1. Trade and freight flows analysis.

1. Macroeconomic data

2. Trade data

GDP, agriculture, construction, inflation, population,

income, investments, etc.

in tons and US dollars

3. Transportation datamodal split of freight transportation

split of rail transportation by types of commodities

detailed information on railway network

Input data

Methodology Output

Separately analyzed countries

Countries analyzed within regions

Other countries

Analysis of macroeconomic and structural trends of

countries.

Foreign trade flows modeling using econometric

(gravity) approach.

Consensus forecasting methodology.

Graph analysis of rail network.

Database of economic and trade statistics for 3 countries.

Econometric model and calculated elasticities for 21

aggregated groups of commodities.

Scenarios of potential export and import flows until 2030.

Split of current export and import flows by existing rail

network and analysis of rail concurrent positions for

transportation of transit cargo.


1.2. Linkages with other freight corridors, ports and terminals.

Picture source: Roland Berger for UIC.

KTI corridor should seek for synergy with other

corridors.

All neighboring corridors with their main features

will be analyzed as a unique graph followed by

analysis of types of commodities carried and

economic parameters.

Existing sea and dry ports, as well as logistics

terminals will be analyzed as graph nodes and

simultaneously cross-checked for capacities.

Possible changes in accessibility to major ports

will be calculated.


1.3. Tariffs.

As confirmed by a recent survey carried out by IEC (Russia) in partnership with UIC and CCTT,

transparent and reasonable tariffs are crucial for rail corridor performance.

10

7

6

5

4

4

2

2

6Other

Impossibility to assure last mile delivery

Impossibility to track the cargo

Complicity of customs procedures and

unpredictable actions of customs authorities

Impossibility to predict transportation time

Low quality of infrastructure

Duration of documentations preparations

Long time / impossibility to predict time of border

passage

Problems related to tariff system

high tariffs on transportation high tariffs

on transshipment

in terminals and ports

non-transparent

tariffs

2 26

PROBLEMS OF EAST – WEST – EAST RAIL FREIGHT TRANSIT*

*as presented by respondents, IEC survey, February 2019

Detailed input data on tariffs principles is

required.

Tariffs will be checked against results of

modeling with ESCAP railway traffic costing

model.

Tariffs will be a changeable part for freight flow

forecasting model.

International benchmark of tariff systems

(EAEU, China, EU) will create a background for

possible new solutions.


1.4. Freight flows forecast.

Trade forecast and rail network analysis is a major

basis for freight flows forecast till 2030.

Input data

Scenario 1

(breakthrough)

Scenario 2

(normal)

Scenario 3

(crisis)

Methodology

Output

A multi-factor mathematical model is used to

analyze distribution considering different elasticities of

different commodities to time and price

of transportation

Russian software TMF® will be used.

Definition of volumes and values allocated to KTIrail corridor currently and in the long-term period.

Estimation of possible additional volume and types of commodities to be switched to KTI rail corridor.

List of key factors defining possibility of shift of additional volumes and values to KTI corridor, by types of goods, including detailed analysis of costs and tariffs.


1.5. Ways to augment freight flows.

Main inputs for this part of study will be the

deliverables from previous analysis

of trade, freight flows, tariffs, costs and

links.

This part of study is to identify:

▪ key commodities to shift to rail;

▪ key ports and terminals to develop;

▪ general costs and tariffs strategy

according to calculated elasticities.

All changes will be tested within TMF®

model.

A comprehensive list of

recommendations will be elaborated.

The quality of final recommendations

will depend on the quality of initial data.



General deliverable for this part of study is a comprehensive list of settings that may assure

augmentation of freight flows and overall efficiency over KTI rail corridor.

Hard settings Soft settings

▪ technical fit for specified

commodities

▪ connectivity with other corridors

▪ links with ports and terminals and

their capacities

▪ costs and tariffs

▪ transportation conditions for

additional types of commodities

that can be switched to corridor

▪ options for exporters, importers

and for transit.


2. Marketing plan for KTI rail corridor


2.1. Marketing plan background.

1. Activities of international organizations 2. International marketing experience

marketing plan for the development of KTI corridor

should be matched with the existing activities of

international organizations both in KTI countries and

in the neighbouring countries and regions

marketing experience for other corridors, especially

in neighboring countries, should be considered


2.2. Marketing segments and objectives.

.

Types of cargoSegments of customers

(clients)Range of products

Pricing

Promotion

Major marketing segments will be defined from the analysis of

existing and projected freight flows.

For each segment a range of product offerings, pricing scheme

will be established, followed by promotion approaches.

Results of analysis of tariff system and cost evaluations from

phase 2 will also be used as a base for further description of

opportunities to improve pricing system.


2.3. Marketing plan implementation, resources and audit.

What

Who

When

How

will be done

Required resources:

Financial

Technical

Labour

Projected revenues:

For each segment

1. Control points.

2. Implementation monitoring.

3. Periodicity and

methodology of review.

4. Auditing process.

I. II. III.



A comprehensive marketing plan based on international experience and local peculiarities,

including actions, resources and revenues projection, as well as monitoring and auditing

approaches.

Thank you for attention!

KTI Inception meeting | April 2019 | Tehran

Picture source: Wikimedia Common

KTI corridor commercialization - UN ESCAP Corridor... · Definition of volumes and values allocated...

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