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DSS for Crisis Planning, Response and Management

by Dan PowerUniversity of Northern Iowa and DSSResources.COM

power@uni.edu

Prepared for ISCRAM 2005 Conference, Brussels, Belgium

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What are some of the more creative and practical things we can use from the DSS area to improve the capability for all phases of emergency preparedness and management?

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Defining DSS

Decision Support Systems (DSS) are a specific class of computerized information system that support decision-making activities (Sprague and Carlson, 1982).

DSS are interactive computer-based systems and subsystems intended to help decision makers use communications technologies, data, documents, knowledge and/or models to identify and solve problems and make decisions.

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Characteristics of a Decision Support System

Facilitation Interaction Ancillary. DSS are not intended to replace any decision makersRepeated Use Task-Oriented Identifiable Decision Impact. DSS are intended to improve the accuracy, timeliness, quality and overall effectiveness of a specific decision or a set of related decisions.

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DSS History Review

Late 1960s, MIS focused on providing structured, periodic reports

Late 1960s, first DSS built using interactive computer systems

1975-1980 DSS using financial models with “What if?” analysis

1975 Steve Alter MIT dissertation

1981-2 Theoretical foundations

Mid-1980s Executive Information Systems and GDSS

Early 1990s shift to client/server DSS, Business Intelligence, Bill Inmon and Ralph Kimball aka “Dr. DSS”

1995 Data warehousing, data mining and the World-wide Web

1998 Enterprise performance management and balanced scorecard

2000 Application service providers (ASPs) and Portals

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DSS for Crisis Situations

Some Decision Support Systems are a better fit for some crisis conditions, tasks and setting factors than are others

What are examples of different types of computerized decision support systems?

What DSS fit the various crisis planning, response and management decision tasks and decision roles ?

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Diverse Crisis, Disaster and Emergency Situations

Recurring emergencies for public agenciesSudden natural catastrophic eventsSudden public infrastructure catastrophic eventsComplex and continuing emergenciesPublic Health crisesEconomic/Political crisesTerrorist actsCompany/organizational crises

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Recurring Emergencies for Public Agencies

Traffic Accidents

Oil Spills

Air Plane Crashes

Building Fires

Kidnappings

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Sudden Natural Catastrophic Events

Hurricane Georges

Tsunami

Mt. St. Helens

Tornado – Tri-State

A wild fire

1906 San Francisco Earthquake

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Sudden Public Infrastructure Catastrophic Events

1928 St. Francis Dam Flood Aug. 14, 2003 NE US Blackout

Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor accident

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Complex and Continuing Emergencies

Veteran’s March Washington, DC 1931

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Public Health Crises

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)

Ebola hemorrhagic fever

(Ebola HF virus)

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (Mad Cow)

Oriental Rat Flea - The Black Death

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Economic/Political Crises

NYSE 10/29/1929 Famine

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Terrorist Acts

Black September Terrorist NYC World Trade Center Twin Towers

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Company/Organizational Crises

Bridgestone/Firestone and Ford Motor Company McDonalds’s

Union Carbide

Enron

Exxon

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What is the domain of IS, IT?

Computing Infrastructure

Transaction processing

Accounting for transactions - AIS

End user computer support

Technology decision-making and leadership

Supporting Decision Makers!

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DSS vs. TPSDifferent purposes: TPS record specific transactions; DSS are designed to aid in decision-making.In much of the world, recurring emergencies of a small scale are managed from centralized dispatch centers with computer-aided dispatch (CAD) tools recording the transaction. There is a significant opportunity for expanding CAD to include more decision support while also enhancing its transaction processing role.

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CAD Example

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Supporting Decision-Making

Is good information and analysis essential for fact-based decision-making? IF YES, THEN

Build DSS when good information is likely to improve decision-making

Build DSS when managers need and want computerized decision support

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Is it appropriate to build and use a DSS?

Decision Frequency

High

Low

Decision StructureHigh Low

Routine, programmable decision

Non-routine decision

Decision Automation

Decision Support Systems

Special studies

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What is the purpose of the DSS?CollaborationData analysis and retrieval ForecastingKnowledge sharingOperations performance monitoringCourse of action analysisAction decision support for triage, hazard assessment or verificationContingency planningResource allocation

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Who will use the proposed DSS?

Senior decision makers/managers

Operations staff

First Responders

Volunteers

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An Expanded DSS Framework

Primary framework dimension is the dominant component or driver of the decision support system (cf., Power, 2002)

Secondary dimensions are targeted users specific purpose of the system primary deployment or enabling

technology

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What provides primary decision support functionality? dominant component

Communications technologies

Data and data management

Documents and document management

Knowledge base and processing

Models and model processing

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Five categories of Decision Support Systems

Communications-driven DSS

Data-driven DSS

Document-driven DSS

Knowledge-driven DSS

Model-driven DSS

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Communications-driven DSS

Communications-driven DSS primarily derive their functionality from computer and networking technologies that support real-time and asynchronous collaboration.

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http://www.universalvillage.net/uvconline/Features.shtm

Skype

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Data-driven DSS

Data-driven DSS includes file drawer and management reporting systems, data warehousing and analysis systems, Executive Information Systems (EIS) and data-driven Spatial Decision Support Systems. Business Intelligence Systems are also examples of Data-Driven DSS. Data-Driven DSS emphasize access to and manipulation of large databases of structured historic and/or real-time data.

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Web-based, Data-driven DSS

Resource information linked to locations

Messak, M., "Decision Support for Mayfield, NY Fire and Emergency Medical Services", 2003, posted at DSSResources.COM November 28, 2003.

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Web-based, Data-driven DSS

Databeacon Staff, "East of England Observatory adopts hosted services decision support solution", posted at DSSResources.COM May 14, 2004

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Document-driven DSS

Document-driven DSS help users retrieve and manage unstructured documents. A Document-driven DSS integrates a variety of storage and processing technologies to provide complete document retrieval, analysis and support.

33http://www.orau.gov/reacts/medical.htm

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Knowledge-driven DSS

Knowledge-driven DSS are suggestion systems, knowledge-based DSS and management expert systems. Knowledge-driven DSS suggest and recommend actions to users.

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Web-based, Knowledge-driven DSS

Biss, A. "Dynasty Triage Advisor Enables Medical Decision-Support", 2002, at URL DSSResources.COM.

Pontz, C. and D. J. Power, "Building an Expert Assistance System for Examiners (EASE) at the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry", November 2002.

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Web-based, Knowledge-driven DSS

PortBlue (http://www.portblue.com/pub/solutions-homeland-security)

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Model-driven DSS

Model-driven DSS includes systems that use accounting and financial models, representational models, and optimization models. Model-driven DSS emphasize access to and manipulation of a quantitative model.

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Some Model-driven DSS Application Categories

Accounting/Financial including cost-benefit analysisDecision AnalysisForecastingInventory control and stockoutLocation, allocation, distributionManpower planning and assignmentProject planning and controlQueuing and congestionReliability and replacement policySequencing and scheduling

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Web-based, Model-driven DSS Generator

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Web-based, Model-driven Decision Support

Tomaszewski, B., "Erie County Emergency Response and Planning Application Performs Plume Modeling", March 6, 2005 at URL DSSResources.COM.

Plume Modeling

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Deployment or Enabling Technology

USE the Web to deliver any category of DSS = Web-Based DSS

Web-based, Communications-driven DSS

Web-based, Data-driven DSS

Web-based, Document-driven DSS

Web-based, Knowledge-driven DSS

Web-based, Model-driven DSS

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Describing Specific DSS

A web-based, model-driven DSS for routing used by a dispatcherA handheld PC-based, knowledge-driven DSS for accident scene triage used by an EMTA web-enabled, data-driven DSS for real-time monitoring by Incident Commander and by staff in a Command CenterA PC-based, model-driven DSS for planning supply chain activities used by logistics staff

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Emerging Decision Support Technologies

Scenario databasesWeb-based planning support systems

A web-based Planning DSS can assist in development of an IAP for a particular operational period and help focus available resources on the highest priorities/incident objectives.

Instant messaging and collaborationCollaborative environmentsAgent-based, realistic simulations Real-time DW using GPS, sensorsKnowledge Management Web Portals

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Integrated Decision Support Environments

Walton, Matt S., III, "Rebuilding an Emergency Operations Center for NYC following 9/11", 2003, posted at DSSResources.COM September 11, 2003.

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Command Center Technology

Dispatch CenterNYC Command Bus

U.S. HHS Command Center TigerVista Command Center 21D

Map Room

Mobile Computing

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Challenges for DSS Development

Rapid technology changeManagers as users and customersMajor issues

- Are current DSS results decision-impelling?- What decision processes to computerize?

- What data? Data gathering? ETL? Storage? - What analytical processing and

presentation?- What technology for new DSS? Web?- Who builds and owns new DSS?

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Some Recent DSS News Headlines

04/13/2005 Bull market for GPS Fleet Management Systems.04/12/2005 Pfizer taps Send Word Now for emergency notification to keep employees informed and safe. 04/07/2005 2005 Conference of the International Computer-Aided Dispatch (CAD) Consortium, Kansas City, KS, April 24-28, 2005. 04/05/2005 PortBlue named by Amerinet as preferred provider of disaster management systems; expert systems platform now available to one-third of all U.S. Hospitals. 04/01/2005 Roaming Messenger participates in national demonstration of interoperable emergency communications. 03/29/2005 Intergraph's Geospatial Data Management solutions aid emergency response at San Ramon Valley Fire Protection District. 03/29/2005 Army National Guard's Civil Support Teams gain first-response interoperability with other agencies .03/29/2005 U.S. Army to secure mobile medical information with endpoint security solution from Pointsec.03/24/2005 Hundreds responded to Texas City Refinery incident; BP launches information web site. 03/24/2005 CompuDyne's Public Safety and Justice Division is selected by Prince George's County, MD to provide Computer Aided Dispatch System.03/01/2005 NYU creates nation's first academic center for private sector crisis management.

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A Path in the Wilderness

Increase attention to decision support

More knowledge about DSS

Pilot projects, retraining

Understand crisis decision makers and their needs

Cooperate and engage in discussion and debate to move to the next generation of decision support

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DSS for Crisis SituationsIncident Commander can have access to the entire range of DSS. DSS must scale up and down as appropriate to an incident.DSS can serve specific responders on the scene of an incident.DSS can be used in a permanent Command or Operations Center for multiple tasks.An Incident Commander needs to be comfortable in a high technology "cocoon" of wireless interconnectivity, web access and stand-alone tools like MS Access and Excel. COTS like MS Access and Excel can be used to create effective small scale DSS for crisis decision support.As the scale of an incident increases, more specialized, web-based applications may be useful for distributed data gathering, data analysis and decision support in the temporary ICS organization.Communications-driven DSS can reduce the negative effects of time pressure in a crisis situation. Data-driven DSS can help monitor the "volume and intensity of events", "abrupt or sudden changes", and changes in the "external or internal environment" of an organization, nation or region.

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Web-based, document-driven, group decision process structuring applications can improve contingency planning. Knowledge-driven DSS can potentially assist in understanding the "constructs, limitations and perceptions of the crisis situation". Checklists can become more sophisticated.Model-driven DSS based upon quantitative planning models can help reduce or manage uncertainty. Also, model-driven DSS can help identify vulnerabilities and evaluate crisis scenarios. Both model-driven and data-driven DSS can support crisis prevention activities. Web portals and web-based DSS can help crisis decision makers monitor news and events and help organizations share information with the media, stakeholders and the general public. Improved communications technologies and handheld and portable computing technologies make it possible for first responders to bring decision support technologies into a crisis management setting.Communication and information technologies continue to breakdown in crisis.

More Conclusions

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Even More ConclusionsAssessing the appropriateness of specific DSS and decision support technologies in various crisis situations must be an ongoing activity of crisis management professionals and academic researchers. DSS are not relevant, helpful or useful in some crisis situations. Only some emergency and crisis situations require or will benefit from computerized decision support. A typology of crisis situations is needed to help analyze DSS needs for crisis planning, response and management. Policy makers must examine who "owns" crisis related DSS capabilities and how such capabilities should be funded and maintained. We can use the Internet and World-Wide Web to extend the reach and range of many general purpose DSS for crisis planning, response and management.

The Web is a great source of information about DSS, please visit DSSResources.COM, PlanningDSS.com, DecisionAutomation.com and PlanningSkills.com.

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General guidance for building DSS for Crisis Situations

Anything that can go wrong will go wrong

Everything takes longer than you think

Nothing is as easy as it looks

KISS – Keep it Simple Stupid

Murphy's Laws, http://dmawww.epfl.ch/roso.mosaic/dm/murphy.html

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ReferencesPower, D., Decision Support Systems: Concepts and Resources for Managers, Westport, CT: Greenwood/Quorum Books, 2002.Power, D., Decision Support Systems: Frequently Asked Questions, Lincoln, NE: iUniverse, 2005.Power, D., "Can DSS and Decision Support technologies help reduce the threat of terrorism?", DSS News, Vol. 2, No. 20, September 23, 2001. Power, D., "Can DSS/IS/IT improve the Incident Command System? What needs can DSS meet?", DSS News, Vol. 6, No. 8, March 27, 2005. Power, D., "How can computerized decision support help in crisis situations?", DSS News, Vol. 4, No. 18, August 31, 2003.Power, D., "How can DSS help implement Basel II?", DSS News, Vol. 5, No. 15, July 18, 2004. Power, D., "How can DSS help in crisis planning, response and management?", DSS News, Vol. 6, No. 6, February 27, 2005. Power, D., "How could innovative DSS have assisted in specific crisis situations?", DSS News, Vol. 6, No. 9, April 10, 2005.

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• Thank you

• Any Questions