KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR Q3 - Telia Company...Mobile gross adds Mobile net adds FLAT EBITDA DEVELOPMENT IN...
Transcript of KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR Q3 - Telia Company...Mobile gross adds Mobile net adds FLAT EBITDA DEVELOPMENT IN...
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Q3JOHAN DENNELIND, PRESIDENT & CEO
INTERIM REPORT JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 2017
KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR Q3
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NORWAY KEEPS DELIVERINGNORWAY KEEPS DELIVERING SWEDEN REDUCING COSTSSWEDEN REDUCING COSTS SWEDEN FIBER DELAYS SWEDEN FIBER DELAYS
NO OTHER KNOWN INVESTIGATIONS
ONGOING
NO OTHER KNOWN INVESTIGATIONS
ONGOING
STRONG OPCFSTRONG OPCF REALLOCATING CAPITALREALLOCATING CAPITAL GLOBAL SETTLEMENT UZBEKISTAN
GLOBAL SETTLEMENT UZBEKISTAN
-6%
8.8bn8.8bn
8,0008,000
8.5bn
1.5bn+
3.2bn
0.7bn+
2018 400m2018 400m+
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SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTOrganic growth, external service revenues
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Service revenues
Service revenues excl. fiber installation revenues
-0.9%-0.9%
-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
SLOW FIBER WITH NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE RESULTS
EBITDA DEVELOPMENTOrganic growth, excluding adjustment items
• Service revenue growth in 6 of 7 markets
• Fiber installation revenues in Sweden down by SEK 124 million in Q3
• Soft development in the Nordics partly compensated by strong Baltics
• Impact from less fiber installation revenues partly offset by strong cost control in Sweden
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THE MOST HAPPY CUSTOMERS AND BEST NETWORK
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MOST SATISFIED B2C (HALEBOP) & B2B (TELIA) CUSTOMERS 2017*
* According to SKI (svenskt kvalitetsindex, English: Swedish quality index) in September 2017, ** According to P3 in September 2017
AWARDED BEST NETWORK FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE YEAR**
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LOWER OPEX MITIGATES FOR SLOW-DOWN IN FIBER
SWEDEN OPEX DEVELOPMENTReported currency, SEK billion & external OPEX
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1.92.0 2.1
2.2
1.8
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
OPEX absolute OPEX growth
0%
• On track to reduce H2 OPEX by 5 percent y-o-y*
• Marketing and consultants main drivers behind Q3 reduction
• Further impact from redundancies in Q4
* Adjusted external OPEX, excluding pension one-off item reported in Q4 2016
-6%
SWEDEN EBITDA DEVELOPMENTReported currency, EBITDA excl. adjustment items
10%
-2%
-2%
8%
-3%
0%
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
EBITDA growth incl. fiber installation revenues
EBITDA growth excl. fiber installation revenues
• Installation revenues have gone from contributing by ~2 p.p. on growth to neutral to being a ~2 p.p. drag
• Excluding fiber installation revenues the Q3 EBITDA growth was fairly flat
Traffic authority permitsOther permitsSecondary faults
SLOWER FIBER PACE LEADS TO IMPROVED CASH FLOW
• A single permit could stall an entire project
Permitneeded
PERMIT DELAY EXAMPLEConnecting a network to the backbone
PERMIT DELAY SPLIT Q3 FINANCIAL IMPACTReported currency, SEK billion
• Without delays fiber installation revenues Q3 and YTD would have been rather flat
0
100
200
300
Q3 16 Q3 17
Fiber installation revenuesFiber installation revenues
-1000
-500
0
Q3 16 Q3 17
Cash flow impact*Cash flow impact*
• Lower SDU volumes pressure revenues and EBITDA but support cash flow via lower CAPEX
6* Impact on cash flow from fiber installation revenues less fiber related CAPEX
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
EndQ2 2017
EndQ3 2017
EndQ4 2017
EndQ1 2018
Share of Phonerocustomers migrated
STABLE NORWAY & PHONERO MIGRATION ON TRACK
• Bulk of customers to be moved in Q4
• Phonero performance is so far according to expectations
• Full run-rate synergy target of SEK 400 million by year-end 2017 remains
PHONERO CUSTOMER MIGRATION
Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million, reported currency & organic growth
-0.4%-0.4%
+1.7%+1.7%
Service revenues EBITDA
1,9492,212
890 922
Phonero
7
• Stable financial development
= Organic growth * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items
INNOVATION - OUR DNA
FIRST OUT ON 5G USE CASES IN EUROPE
AMBITION OF BRINGING 5G SERVICES LIVE TO TALLINN, HELSINKI & STOCKHOLM IN 2018
NO VISIBLE IMPACT ON CAPEX UNTIL BEYOND 2020
8 Copyright: Intel
• 5G live test at Digital EU summit – Tallinn Sep. 2017
4G
5GFIRST OPERATOR IN THE WORLD TO LAUNCH 4G COMMERCIALLY IN 2009
CONTINUING TO BE NETWORK PIONEERS
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DIVISION X 1 YEAR ON
C O R P O R A T E P O W E R S T A R T U P A T T I T U D EC O R P O R A T E P O W E R S T A R T U P A T T I T U D E
CROWD ANALYTICS
”IoT OFFERING GAINING TRACTION. YTD
REVENUES OF SEK 0.5 BILLION”
”ACQUIRED Q1 -STRENGTHENING OUR
POSITION IN VERTICALS OF TRANSPORTATION &
IoT”
”EXCITING PILOT PROJECTS, AGGREGATING, ANONYMIZING, COMPILING
& COMMERCIALIZING DATA”
” VALUE TO CORE AND VALUE IN INVESTMENTS
– 6 KEY VENTURES”
”SENSE LAUNCHED AND ZONE IS NOW
AVAILAIBLE FOR 0.7 MILLION SWEDISH
HOUSEHOLDS”
TELIA SENSE
TELIA ZONE
&
9
25%
19%
Predivestment
Postdivestment
STEP BY STEP TOWARDS PURE NORDIC/BALTIC
38%
24%
Predivestments
Postdivestments
• Almost SEK 12 billion in proceeds from divestments made YTD 2017 in Turkcell and MegaFon
• SEK 2.3 billion in total dividends received YTD 2017 from associated companies
• 3rd Turkcell dividend tranche of around SEK 0.5 billion to be received Q4
• MegaFon reclassified from an associated company to a financial asset from Q4
• Turkcell market capitalization of around USD 8.5 billion and MegaFon of around USD 6.4 billion10
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Q3CHRISTIAN LUIGA, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT & CFO
INTERIM REPORT JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 2017
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0
2
4
6
8
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Operational free cash flow (R12)
STRONG CASH FLOW TREND SUPPORTS OUTLOOK
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW TREND Continuing operations, SEK billion
FREE CASH FLOW - YTD Continuing operations, SEK billion
8.6 10.6
7.1
+0.8
Tax
+0.9
Cash CAPEX
+1.2
Associatedividends
YTD Q3 16
EBITDA
+1.1
-0.6
+3.4
YTDQ3 17
Other
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Operational free cash flow - by QOperational free cash flow - by Q
16 17 16 17 16 17 16
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SWEDEN FIBER ROLL-OUT DRAG ON GROUP LEVEL
• Legacy pressure and lower fiber installation revenues in Sweden
• Norway and Denmark benefiting from wholesale
• Solid development in the Baltics
OtherLATEST
-0.9%
Q3 17
FINSWEQ3 16
LITDENNOR OtherLATNORFINSWE ESTLITDEN
-0.4%
Q3 17
Q3 16
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTOrganic growth, external service revenues
EBITDA DEVELOPMENT Organic growth, excluding adjustment items
• Revenue drop in Sweden not fully mitigated by lower costs
• Negative sales mix and high SAC in Finland
• Good cost control in Lithuania and Estonia
13
7,976 7,739
3,613 3,531
Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17
FIBER ROLL-OUT DECLINE BUT CLEAR COST IMPROVEMENT
• Negative sales mix partly mitigated by betterperformance on costs
• Fiber installation revenues fell by SEK 124 million
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
-1.1%-1.1%
-2.4%-2.4%
-4.1%-4.1%B2B
B2C
B2C excl. fiber installation revenuesB2C incl. fiber installation revenues
SERVICE REVENUES* BY SEGMENTOrganic growth
• Fiber installation revenues down by 46 percent y-o-y
• Lapsing price effect on TV and fixed broadband
• Continued stable B2B, although growth still negative
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million, reported currency & organic growth
* External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items = Organic growth
-2.4%-2.4%
-3.2%-3.2%
Service revenues EBITDA
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TEMPORARY COST INCREASE RELATED TO HIGHER SAC
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTION DEVELOPMENTQuarterly mobile gross & net adds excl. M2M
• Increased gross adds late Q3 on the back of higher SAC
2,784 2,911
1,055 1,082
Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17Service revenues EBITDA
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million, reported currency & organic growth
-1.5%-1.5%
+1.0%+1.0%
• Growth in mobile partly offset by pressure on fixed broadband revenues
• Elevated SAC level Q3 pressures EBITDA
= Organic growth * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items 15
2
-29-9 -19
2
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
In 0
00
’
Mobile gross adds Mobile net adds
FLAT EBITDA DEVELOPMENT IN NORWAY
Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 17
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million, reported currency & organic growth
-0.4%-0.4%
+1.7%+1.7%
Service revenues EBITDA
• Organic revenue growth driven by wholesale
• Challenging cost base comparison in the quarter
• Limited synergies expected in 2017
ORGANIC EBITDA** DEVELOPMENTSEK million, organic EBITDA and margin
* External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items = Organic growth
• Continued stable organic EBITDA trend
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
250
500
750
1000
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Organic EBITDAOrganic EBITDA margin
16
1,9492,212
890 922
Phonero
9
217 234295 317
197 186
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Estonia Lithuania Denmark
Q3 16 Q3 17Lithuania
Q3 16 Q3 17Denmark
+6.7%+6.7%
Q3 16 Q3 17Estonia
SOLID PERFORMANCE IN ESTONIA AND LITHUANIA
+7.0%+7.0%-6.5%-6.5%
+2.0%+2.0%
+2.2%+2.2%
+6.8%+6.8%
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTOrganic growth, external service revenues
EBITDA* DEVELOPMENTSEK million, reported currency & organic growth
= Organic growth * Excluding adjustment items
• Mobile is growing in all countries
• Growth in Estonia driven by majority of revenue streams
• Denmark positive mainly due to wholesale
• Service revenue growth and cost control in Lithuania and Estonia support EBITDA
• Denmark EBITDA impacted by higher OPEX
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STRONG REVENUE & EBITDA TREND IN EURASIA
• Revenue growth in all markets
• Double digit EBITDA growth in Eurasia Q3 if excluding the devaluation impact in Uzbekistan
* External service revenues **Excluding adjustment items
FINANCIAL TRENDS IN EURASIAOrganic growth
FINANCIAL TRENDS IN KAZAKHSTANOrganic growth
• Financial improvement continues
• Price adjustments on legacy tariffs and ARPU stimulation impact revenue growth positively
• Revenue growth and cost initiatives support EBITDA
0%3%
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Service revenues*
EBITDA**14%
-4%
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Service revenues*
EBITDA**
18
10
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
SE
K m
illio
n
CAPEX (R12) CAPEX excl. fiber (R12)
• Decline in CAPEX driven by fiber CAPEX in Sweden as well as overall non-fiber related CAPEX
0
500
1,000
1,500
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
SE
K m
illio
n
Fiber CAPEX
CAPEX TRENDING DOWN FROM 2016 PEAK
CAPEX EXCLUDING LICENSES*Reported currency, SEK million & R12
• Vast majority of fiber CAPEX relates to Sweden but also some in Estonia, Lithuania and Finland
19 * Excluding hockey rights in Finland
FIBER CAPEX DEVELOPMENTReported currency, SEK million
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NET DEBT AND LEVERAGE
1.36x1.36x
= Leverage ratio
NET DEBT DEVELOPMENTContinuing and discontinued operations, SEK billion
+2.9
+6.1
+1.7
Q3 17
42.6
FX & Other
Global settlement
M&ATurkcell divestment
-4.1
Operations
-4.8
Q2 17
40.8
1.43x1.43x • Net debt increase driven by payment relating to the Uzbek global settlement partly offset by the divestment of Turkcell shares
• Reduced net debt from operations despite increased cash CAPEX
• M&A is related to the Nebula acquisition
• Q4 items
• Second dividend payment of SEK 4.3 billion
• 3rd Turkcell dividend tranche of SEK 0.5 billion
• Proceeds of SEK 3.2 billion from MegaFon divestment
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OUTLOOK FOR 2017 UNCHANGED
* Free cash flow from continuing operations, excluding licenses and dividends from associated companies
** Excluding adjustment items, in local currencies, excluding acquisitions and disposals
*** Post tax and given current exchange rates
Above SEK 7.5 billionOperational FCF together with dividends from associates of around SEK 2.8 billion*** to be above SEK 10 billion and should cover a dividend around the 2016 level
O P E R A T I O N A L F C F *
Around the 2016 levelE B I T D A * *
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Q&A
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SIGNIFICANT EPS IMPROVEMENT
TOTAL EPS DEVELOPMENTSEK, continuing and discontinued operations
* Excluding income from associates and adjustment items
-0.44
-0.10-0.11-0.09
0.52
-2.03
Uzbek global settlement
+2.97
Tax & other
+0.10
Capital losses/gains
Income from associates
Adjustmentitems
Operatingincome*
Q3 16
+2.55
Q3 17Eurasia other
+0.22
CONTINUING OPERATIONS
Mainly Turkcell divestment
Mainly Turkcell divestment
The provision forUzbek legal investigation
made in Q3 2016
The provision forUzbek legal investigation
made in Q3 2016
DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
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FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors, many of which are outside the control of Telia Company.
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