© OECD/IEA - 2008

KEY GRAPHS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Oil

Coal

Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Hydro

Otherrenewables

World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Incremental primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario, 2006-2030

- 500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000

China

India

OECD

Middle East

Other Asia

E. Europe/Eurasia

Latin America

Africa

Mtoe

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Other

The increase in China’s energy demand to 2030 – the result of its sheer market size & stronger economic growth prospects – dwarfs that of all other countries & regions

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Change in oil demand by region in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

China

Middle East

India

Other Asia

Latin America

E. Europe/Eurasia

Africa

OECD North America

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

mb/d

All of the growth in global oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the Middle East 20% and other emerging Asian economies most of the rest

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy investment in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030

Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure of $26.3 trillion is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay spending – especially in the power sector

Power generation

50%

Transmission

& distribution

50%Mining

91%

Shipping &

ports

9%

Exploration and development

80%

Refining16%

Shipping4%

Exploration & development

61%LNG chain

8%

Transmission & distribution

31%

Power52%

$13.6 trillion

Oil24%

$6.3 trillion

Gas21%

$5.5 trillion

Coal3%

$0.7 trillion

Biofuels <1%

$0.2 trillion

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Incremental world fossil-fuel production in the Reference Scenario

Most of the incremental oil & gas comes from national companies in non-OECD countries, resulting in major structural changes in the energy industry & increased imports in the OECD

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980-2007 2007-2030 1980-2006 2006-2030 1980-2006 2006-2030

mb

/d Non-OECD

OECD

- 200

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

Bcm

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Mtc

e

Oil CoalGas

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Average observed oilfield decline rate by year of first production

The production-weighted average decline rate worldwide is projected to rise from 6.7% in 2007 to 8.6% in 2030 as productions shifts to smaller oilfields, which tend to decline quicker

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Pre-1970s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 - 2007

OPEC

Non-OPEC

© OECD/IEA - 2008

World oil production in the Reference Scenario

Production reaches 104 mb/d in 2030, requiring 64 mb/d of gross capacity additions – six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth & counter decline

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb

/d Natural gas liquids

Non-conventional oil

Crude oil - additional EOR

Crude oil - fields yet to befound

Crude oil - fields yet to bedeveloped

Crude oil - currentlyproducing fields

© OECD/IEA - 2008

World oil & gas production by type of company in the Reference Scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2015 2030

mb

/d

0

750

1 500

2 250

3 000

3 750

4 500

2006 2015 2030

Bcm

NOCs Private companies

Oil Gas

Close to 80% of the projected increase in output of both oil & gas comes from national companies – on the assumption that investment is forthcoming

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy-related CO2 emissions in the Reference Scenario

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries – three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gig

ato

nn

es Internationalmarine bunkersand aviation

Non-OECD - gas

Non-OECD - oil

Non-OECD - coal

OECD - gas

OECD - oil

OECD - coal

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Reductions in energy-related CO2

emissions in the climate-policy scenarios

While technological progress is required to achieve some emissions reductions, increased deployment of existing low-carbon technologies accounts for most of the CO2 savings

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gig

ato

nn

es

Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario

550 Policy

Scenario

450 Policy

ScenarioCCS

Renewables & biofuels

Nuclear

Energy efficiency

© OECD/IEA - 2008

World greenhouse-gas emissions

While energy-related CO2 will continue to dominate, there is strong potential to reduce other emissions through improved efficiency, better farm management & reduced gas flaring

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2020 2030 2020 2030 2030

Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 PolicyScenario

Gig

ato

nn

es

of

CO

2-eq

uiv

alen

t

Energy CO2

F-gases

N2O

Methane

Industry CO2

Land use CO2