Keisuke Sadamori Director, Energy Markets and Security
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© OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2015 Energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions Keisuke Sadamori – Director, Energy Markets and Security Barcelona, 19 September 2016
Transcript of Keisuke Sadamori Director, Energy Markets and Security
© OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2015
Energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions
Keisuke Sadamori – Director, Energy Markets and Security
Barcelona, 19 September 2016
© OECD/IEA 2016
Overview
1. Energy efficiency trends in EU countries
2. How efficiency reduces GHG emissions
3. The Paris Agreement and its effect on efficiency
4. The IEA 2 Degree (2DS) and Bridge scenarios and the role of energy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2016
1. Efficiency trends: concerted progress in the EU
Efficiency levels in residential buildings improved by 25% since 2000
Lack of policy in freight sector has coincided with worsening efficiency
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Index 20
00 =
1
Freight
transport
Commercial
buildings
Passenger
transport
Residential
buildings
Change in efficiency levels by sector in Europe
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Buildings efficiency showing progress
EU efficiency policies implemented in 2002, 2006, 2012 drawing down energy demand
Building efficiency indicators in France, Germany, Italy, UK, 2002-2013
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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Index 20
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1
Space heating energy per household
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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Natural gas consumption per floor area
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In 2014, the avoided total primary energy supply generated by energy efficiency improvements since 1990 was 32 EJ (765 Mtoe)
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Avoided TFC Avoided TPES (electricity) Avoided TPES
EJ
Electricity Nuclear Renewable Natural gas Coal Oil Heat
Avoided TFC and TPES in 2014 in IEA countries from efficiency investments made since 1990
Efficiency gains lead to large energy savings and GHG emissions
End-use efficiency leads to substantial fossil fuels energy savings
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3. Post-COP21: Policies and investment shifting to GHG reduction potential
One third of NDCs have efficiency targets/policies but a large share of GHG reductions are still ‘unallocated’
Energy efficiency is the most cost-effective measure to reduce GHGs and is increasingly viewed as a no-carbon fuel
GHG reduction Scenarios with high efficiency penetration are USD 2.5 trillion less costly
IEA Scenarios show that INDCs will boost efficiency
investment, with most early effort in the buildings sector
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4. Efficiency is a critical action in 2DS
Efficiency and renewables make up 2/3rds of GHG mitigation in 2DS
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2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Energy efficiency 32%
Renewables 32%
Fuel switching 10%
Nuclear 11%
CCS 15% 2DS
4DS
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions in 2DS
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GHG reductions from efficiency are spread across all end-use sectors
In each end-use sector efficiency is the most important action for direct GHG emission reduction
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Power
Industry
Transport
Buildings
Other transformation
GtCO2
Cumulative reductions by sector and technology
Renewables
CCS
Fuel switching
Energy efficiency
Nuclear
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions in 2DS
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Efficiency is a major fuel “source” in 2DS
Avoided electricity consumption from efficiency (top) in 2DS is larger than the generation of any one low carbon source
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions in 2DS
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2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Cumulative CO2 reductions
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Crossing the Bridge to 2 degrees
IEA developed the Bridge Scenario which peaks GHGs by 2020 and puts us on a 2 degree pathway by 2030
Energy efficiency is an even larger part of the bridge
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Efficiency at the core of EU GHG reductions in the Bridge
World Energy Outlook Climate Special Report 2015
Energy-related GHG emissions reduction in Bridge scenario relative to INDC Scenario
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Efficiency actions focused on buildings in the EU
In the EU over half of the GHG reductions are in buildings
World Energy Outlook Climate Special Report 2015
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Conclusion
Energy efficiency improving in the EU driven by policy
These improvements are leading to significant energy and GHG savings
The Paris Agreement is likely stimulate to another round of policies to boost efficiency
In the EU, efficiency is the prime mover of GHG reductions in IEA scenarios
