THE ONES THAT GOT AWAY

Kathy Booth, WestEdNational Badging Alliance

October 2014

THE CURRENT SUCCESS CONVERSATION

The way we think about college drives what counts as success

• Many courses • Several years• Credential• Good for life• Opens door to

employment

The evolving world of work

• Most jobs require mastery of quickly-evolving technology, requiring retraining

• Workers are moving from jobs that no longer exist to jobs that may not have existed when they started their studies

• Employers expect workers to come to the job fully trained

• Sectors have bypassed academic credentials and are establishing their own

The new reality for workforce education is short-term certificates

Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce:

• Certificates accounted for 22% of post-secondary awards in 2010, up from 8% in 1980

• Certificates are now the second most common postsecondary award, ahead of associate’s degrees and master’s degrees

• 54% of these certificates are short-term (1 year or less)

The crux of the problem

While individual college programs are being developed that address the new world of work, our conversations about success are still assuming a conventional definition of the college experience

… so we need a new way to talk about alternative college pathways.

RESEARCH ON WORKFORCE TRAINING OUTCOMES

Statewide student data paired with unemployment insurance earnings

• Bahr (2013): 174,864 students who entered California community colleges for the first time between 2002–2006 and successfully engaged in short-term course-taking, by passing six or fewer credits per term over four semesters

• Bahr (2014): 759,489 students who entered California community colleges for the first time between 2002–2006

• Fuller (2013): 67,800 students who described their college goal in fall 2010 as “update job skills.”

• Fuller (2014): 68,000 students from the time period of 2002–2007 who completed credentials or left without a credential and did not transfer to a four-year institution

Statewide student data paired with surveys of former students

Greaney (2013): 11,512 students who either earned an award or had taken nine or more vocational units but stopped taking classes prior to earning an award

Key Finding: Community college offers a strong return-on-investment

Associa

te Deg

ree

Long-T

erm Certi

ficate

(

>29 units

)

Short-

Term

Certificat

e

(6

-29 units)

Low-Cred

it Award

(<6

units)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

7%

17%13%

11%

Bahr, 2014

Earnings Gains By Credential Length

Key Finding: Earnings gains vary significantly by field of study

Workforce associate degree fields of study

5

13

Non-workforce associate degree fields of study

10

Bahr, 2014

Attainment of Statistically Significant Wage Gains, By Workforce and Non-Workforce Fields of Study

Wage gain No wage gain

Key Finding: Many non-completers had significant earnings gains

Water and Wastewater Technology

Administration of Justice

Electronics and Electric Technology

Manufacturing and Industrial Tech

Fire Technology

Computer Infrastructure and Support

Civil and Construction Management Tech

General Information Technology

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%6 credits9 credits12 credits Increase in Quarterly Earnings

Within 24 workforce subfields, students in 16 saw significant earnings gains after taking only a couple of courses.

Bahr, 2013

Return in Quarterly Earnings, by Subfield and Credits

Key Finding: Many non-completers had significant earnings gains

Few students with an “update job skills” goal earned a community college credential, but they did increase earnings 11% in one year.

Fuller, 2013

Return in Quarterly Earnings

Pre-college earnings Post-college earnings$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$49,000 $54,600

Key Finding: Many non-completers had significant earnings gains

Non-completers earned more than completers in the following groups: • students aged 35 and older• students aged 25 or older taking ten units or less• fields like real estate, automotive technology,

electronics & electronic technology, administration of justice

• goals of “personal development” or “update job skills”

Fuller, 2014

Key Finding: Many non-completers had significant earnings gains

Greaney, 2013

Pre- and Post-College Earnings by Completion Status

Non-completers have a smaller percentage increase than leavers, but overall earn higher wages.

Non-Completer Completer

Hourly Wage PRE $21.19 $19.03

Hourly Wage POST $25.87 $24.78

Increase in Wage $4.68 $5.75

Percent Change 22.1% 30.2%

Key Finding: Non-completers are “non-traditional” students

Non-completers are older• Bahr: average age of 37• Fuller: average age of 38• Greaney: average age of 37

Many non-completers have already been to college• Fuller: 33% of “skills upgrade” students had attended a four-

year college prior to enrolling in community college• Greaney: 27% of non-completing students had earned a

bachelor’s degree or a higher degree prior to enrolling in community college coursework

Key Finding: Economic value may come from content rather than the credential

Bahr, 2014

Field of Study

Low-CreditAward

< 6 units

ShortCertificate6-29 units

LongCertificate30+ units

Assoc Degree

60+ units

Health +6% +10% +26% +99%

Business & Management +10% +5% Not significant Not significant

Public & Protective Services Not significant +13% +10% Not significant

Engineering & Industrial Tech Not significant Not significant Not significant +7%

Family & Consumer Sciences Not significant +5% Not significant Not significant

Commercial Services Too few awards +9% Not significant Not significant

Information Technology Too few awards Not significant Not significant Not significant

Wage Premium for Completing a College Credential

Unknown Factor: The value of third-party credentials

• California Career and Technical Education Outcomes Survey: 41% of non-completers reported earning a third-party credential

• Census Bureau Survey of Income and Program Participation: third-party credentials boost the income of those with “some college” by 13% and those with an associate’s degree by 18%

Implications: Current success metrics may miss the areas of biggest impact

• The bulk of economic value from a community college education is in workforce training, particularly short-term options

• Completion is not critical in most workforce training pathways (for older students)

• Success metrics need to be nuanced and take into account program of study, credential type, and student characteristics

Implications: Badging

• Sub-skills: Badges could help identify discrete sub-skills within a larger program of study that are valuable in the workplace

• Measurement: Badges could provide a means of quantifying the value of short-term coursetaking for accountability purposes

Resources

Videos and Discussion Guides• “Building More Comprehensive Measures of Workforce Training

Success” (4 minutes)• “How Workforce Pathways Shape College Outcomes and Earnings

Gains” (8 minutes)• Videos are paired with discussion guides aimed at different

audiences (policy makers, college leadership, CTE directors, faculty)Available at:

http://doingwhatmatters.cccco.edu/CollegeLeadershipResources/Informing Policy.aspx

Policy Brief• “The Ones That Got Away: Why Completing a College Degree Is Not

the Only Way to Succeed” (22-page summary of research with case studies)

Available at: http://www.wested.org/project/quantifying-non-completion-pathways-to-success/

Keep in Touch: Tell us what you find

• Contact Kathy Booth at kbooth@wested.org to share your work to measure workforce training success

• To keep in the loop about new developments, visit http://www.wested.org/project/quantifying-non-completion-pathways-to-success/